Flood triggering in Switzerland: the role of daily to monthly preceding precipitation

Determining the role of different precipitation periods for peak discharge generation is crucial for both projecting future changes in flood probability and for short- and medium-range flood forecasting. In this study, catchment-averaged daily precipitation time series are analyzed prior to annual peak discharge events (floods) in Switzerland. The high number of floods considered – more than 4000 events from 101 catchments have been analyzed – allows to derive significant information about the role of antecedent precipitation for peak discharge generation. Based on the analysis of precipitation times series, a new separation of flood-related precipitation periods is proposed: (i) the period 0 to 1 day before flood days, when the maximum flood-triggering precipitation rates are generally observed, (ii) the period 2 to 3 days before flood days, when longer-lasting synoptic situations generate "significantly higher than normal" precipitation amounts, and (iii) the period from 4 days to 1 month before flood days when previous wet episodes may have already preconditioned the catchment. The novelty of this study lies in the separation of antecedent precipitation into the precursor antecedent precipitation (4 days before floods or earlier, called PRE-AP) and the short range precipitation (0 to 3 days before floods, a period when precipitation is often driven by one persistent weather situation like e.g., a stationary low-pressure system). A precise separation of "antecedent" and "peak-triggering" precipitation is not attempted. Instead, the strict definition of antecedent precipitation periods permits a direct comparison of all catchments. The precipitation accumulating 0 to 3 days before an event is the most relevant for floods in Switzerland. PRE-AP precipitation has only a weak and region-specific influence on flood probability. Floods were significantly more frequent after wet PRE-AP periods only in the Jura Mountains, in the western and eastern Swiss plateau, and at the outlet of large lakes. As a general rule, wet PRE-AP periods enhance the flood probability in catchments with gentle topography, high infiltration rates, and large storage capacity (karstic cavities, deep soils, large reservoirs). In contrast, floods were significantly less frequent after wet PRE-AP periods in glacial catchments because of reduced melt. For the majority of catchments however, no significant correlation between precipitation amounts and flood occurrences is found when the last 3 days before floods are omitted in the precipitation amounts. Moreover, the PRE-AP was not higher for extreme floods than for annual floods with a high frequency and was very close to climatology for all floods. The fact that floods are not significantly more frequent nor more intense after wet PRE-AP is a clear indicator of a short discharge memory of Pre-Alpine, Alpine and South Alpine Swiss catchments. Our study poses the question whether the impact of long-term precursory precipitation for floods in such catchments is not overestimated in the general perception. The results suggest that the consideration of a 3–4 days precipitation period should be sufficient to represent (understand, reconstruct, model, project) Swiss Alpine floods.

Subclinical Hypothyroidism and the Risk of Stroke Events and Fatal Stroke: An Individual Participant Data Analysis

OBJECTIVE The objective was to determine the risk of stroke associated with subclinical hypothyroidism. DATA SOURCES AND STUDY SELECTION Published prospective cohort studies were identified through a systematic search through November 2013 without restrictions in several databases. Unpublished studies were identified through the Thyroid Studies Collaboration. We collected individual participant data on thyroid function and stroke outcome. Euthyroidism was defined as TSH levels of 0.45-4.49 mIU/L, and subclinical hypothyroidism was defined as TSH levels of 4.5-19.9 mIU/L with normal T4 levels. DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS We collected individual participant data on 47 573 adults (3451 subclinical hypothyroidism) from 17 cohorts and followed up from 1972-2014 (489 192 person-years). Age- and sex-adjusted pooled hazard ratios (HRs) for participants with subclinical hypothyroidism compared to euthyroidism were 1.05 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.91-1.21) for stroke events (combined fatal and nonfatal stroke) and 1.07 (95% CI, 0.80-1.42) for fatal stroke. Stratified by age, the HR for stroke events was 3.32 (95% CI, 1.25-8.80) for individuals aged 18-49 years. There was an increased risk of fatal stroke in the age groups 18-49 and 50-64 years, with a HR of 4.22 (95% CI, 1.08-16.55) and 2.86 (95% CI, 1.31-6.26), respectively (p trend 0.04). We found no increased risk for those 65-79 years old (HR, 1.00; 95% CI, 0.86-1.18) or ≥ 80 years old (HR, 1.31; 95% CI, 0.79-2.18). There was a pattern of increased risk of fatal stroke with higher TSH concentrations. CONCLUSIONS Although no overall effect of subclinical hypothyroidism on stroke could be demonstrated, an increased risk in subjects younger than 65 years and those with higher TSH concentrations was observed.

Anno 1757 wurde dieser Fisch 2 Stund unterhalb Donauwörth gefangen

Bibliogr. Nachweis: Faust: Zoolog. Einblattdrucke ... I,148

Sächsischer Vogelfang

Satirische Darstellung protestantischer Siege im Dreißigjährigen Krieg

Bacteriemias en Mayores de 65 años : resultados de un análisis comparativo

Objetivos: Evaluar parámetros clínicos, bacteriológicos y morbimortalidad en pacientes mayores de 65 años con bacteriemia (Grupo A) y compararlos con aquellas ocurridas en menores de 65 años (grupo B) hospitalizados en un servicio de clínica médica. Material y métodos: Estudio protocolizado, descriptivo y observacional, desde 1989-2006. Criterios de inclusión: dos o más hemocultivos positivos. Análisis estadístico con Epi Info 6.4 . Resultados: Se identificaron 668 bacteriemias: 258 (38,6%) en A y 410 (61,4%) en B. La edad media fue de 74,2 años (DS±7.01) y de 47,2 años (DS±13.7) respectivamente. No hubo diferencias en la permanencia media: 19,1 días (DS±17.07) en A y 19,9 (DS±18,1) en B, ni en el origen nosocomial (40,7 vs 44%). Los focos pulmonar (31 vs 21,2%)(p<0,008) y urinario (27 vs 18,8%)(p=0.017) fue más frecuentes en A. La fiebre >de 38 ºC fue menos frecuente en A (83,8 vs 90,9%)(p=0.0068), mientras que la hipotensión arterial (40,8 vs 32,2%)(p=0.03), oliguria (41,7 vs 30,9%)(p=0.005) y encefalopatía (54,5 vs 39,4%)(p=0.00014) fueron mas comunes en A. Los bacilos gram negativos predominaron en A (46 vs 37%)(p<0.01) con diferencias entre A.baumani (9,16 vs 4,6%) y E.coli (54,1 vs 42,7%)(p<0.05) y en B fueron más frecuentes por S.aureus MS (34.39 vs 24,63)(p=0.01). El shock séptico (33,9 vs 22,4%) y nuevas insuficiencias de órganos (31,1 vs 20,1%) prevalecieron en A (p<0,001). La mortalidad fue de 34,49% para A y de 23,41% para B (p=0,018) Conclusiones: Las bacteriemias en pacientes internados mayores de 65 años comparadas con las ocurridas en pacientes. de menor edad, se caracterizaron significativamente por tener predominio del foco pulmonar y urinario, de hipotensión arterial, oliguria y encefalopatía, de bacteriemia por BGN, principalmente A. baumanii y E. coli; mayor desarrollo de shock séptico, menor frecuencia de fiebre >38°C y de bacteriemia por MSS A, y significativa mayor mortalidad.