Measuring the economic impact of Research Joint Ventures supported by the EU Framework Programme

The objective of this paper is to analyse the effects of international R&D cooperation on firms’ economic performance. Our approach, based on a complete data set with information about Spanish participants in research joint ventures supported by the EU Framework Programme during the period 1995-2005, establishes a recursive model structure to capture the relationship between R&D cooperation, knowledge generation and economic results, which are measured by labour productivity. In the analysis we take into account that the participation in this specific type of cooperative projects implies a selection process that includes both the self-selection by participants to join the consortia and the selection of projects by the European Commission to award the public aid. Empirical analysis has confirmed that: (1) R&D co-operation has a positive impact on the technological capacity of firms, captured through intan-gible fixed assets and (2) the technological capacity of firms is positively related to their productivity.

Forecasting the term structure of volatility of crude oil price changes

Peer reviewed

A review of road structure data in six European countries

The European Union has expanded significantly in recent years. Sustainable trade within the Union, leading to economic growth to the benefit of the ‘old’ and ‘new’ member states is thus extremely important. The road infrastructure is strategic and vital to such development since an uneven transport infrastructure, in terms of capacity and condition, has the potential to reinforce uneven development trends and hinder economic convergence of old and new member states. In the decades since their design and construction, loading conditions have significantly changed for many major highway infrastructure elements/networks owing primarily to increased freight volumes and vehicle sizes. This, coupled with the gradual deterioration of a significant number of highway structures due to their age, and the absence of a pan-European assessment framework, can be expected to affect the smooth functioning of the infrastructure in its as-built condition. Increased periods of reduced flow can be expected owing to planned and unplanned interventions for repair/rehabilitation. This paper reports the findings of a survey regarding the current status of the highway infrastructure elements in six countries within the European Union as reported by the owners/operators. The countries surveyed include a cross-section of ‘existing’ older countries and ‘new’ member states. The current situations for bridges, culverts, tunnels and retaining walls are reported, along with their potential replacement costs. The findings act as a departure point for further studies in support of a centralised and/or synchronised EU approach to infrastructure maintenance management. Information in the form presented in this paper is central to any future decision-making frameworks in terms of trade route choice and operations, monetary investment, optimised maintenance, management and rehabilitation of the built infrastructure and the economic integration of the newly joined member states.

Investing in the Homeland: Foreign Assets and Patterns of Immigrant Economic Incorporation

This dissertation consists of three separate studies that examine patterns of immigrant incorporation in the United States. The first study tests competing hypotheses derived from conflicting theoretical frameworks−transnational perspective and cross-national framework− to determine whether transnational engagement and incorporation are concurrent processes among Chinese, Indian, and Mexican immigrants. This study measures transnational engagement and incorporation as home and home country asset ownership using multi-panel, nationally representative data from the New Immigrant Survey (NIS) collected in 2003 and 2007. Results support a cross-border framework and indicate that transnational asset ownership decreases among all immigrant groups, while U.S. asset ownership increases. Findings from this study also indicate that due to disadvantaged pre-migration SES and low human capital, Mexican immigrants are less likely than other immigrants to own home country assets during the year after receiving their green card.

The second study examines the doubly disadvantaged position of elderly immigrants in the U.S. wealth distribution by applying the life course perspective to the dominance-differentiation theory of immigrant wealth stratification. I analyze elderly immigrant wealth in respect to U.S.-born seniors and younger immigrant cohorts using two data sets: the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) and the New Immigrant Survey (NIS). The Survey of Income and Program Participation (2001 to 2005) is a nationally representative survey of U.S. households. The first series of analyses reveals a significant wealth gap between U.S.- and foreign-born seniors which is most pronounced among the wealthiest households in my sample; however, U.S. tenure explains much of this difference. The second series of analyses suggests that elderly immigrants experience greater barriers to incorporation compared to their younger counterparts.

In the third study, I apply a transnational lens to the forms-of-capital and opportunity structure models of entrepreneurship in order to analyze the role of foreign resources in immigrant business start-ups. I propose that home country property use represents financial, social, and class resources that facilitate immigrant entrepreneurship. I test my hypotheses using survey data on Latin American immigrants from the Comparative Immigrant Entrepreneurship Project. Findings from these analyses suggest that home country asset ownership provides financial and social capital that is related to an increased likelihood of immigrant entrepreneurship.

Territorial administrative reorganization as a strategy for optimizing the structure of local government

Through the tough economic and social situation and the lack of values that has been experienced in recent years, local governments especially in Greece, Portugal, Italy and Spain have been forced to strongly consider the structure and size of their public sector. Despite some initiative to reduce the number of municipalities and provinces, little substantive progress has been made in improving the management of the local public Administration during this crisis. In this study a territorial administrative reorganization is proposed as a strategy to optimize the structure of local government, analyzing the Spanish situation in general, and an autonomous community in particular.

Economic and trade relations between Latin America and Asia Pacific: The link with China

Includes bibliography

Financialisation, Capital Accumulation and Economic Development : A Theoretical and Empirical Investigation of the Nigerian Economy

The primary focus of this study is to highlight those unobtrusive, yet fundamental, factors undermining economic development in Nigeria. To begin with, it posits that the decelerating pace of capital accumulation in Nigeria, which naturally occasions rising unemployment and poverty levels, and widening inequality gap, is the result of the ‘low possibility’ of capitalist enterprises in the country of earning an adequate rate of profit from their productive processes. In turn, the ‘low possibility’ is argued to be the result of the uneven development inherent in the modern capitalist structure, the high cost of capital and of production peculiar to Nigeria, and the ineffective demand for goods made in Nigeria: these elements are viewed as been precipitated by the contradictions of the contemporary political-economic arrangement that organises the Social Structures of Accumulation. For Nigeria to ‘develop’, it is contended that the unobtrusive elements inherent in the contradiction of the political-economic economic that undermine the capitalists’ ability to earn a commensurate rate of profit in the country needs to be fully addressed first. Furthermore, this study suggests that it is crucial the country embraces knowledge-based industrialisation if it is to achieve some form of ‘competitive advantage’ in the global market, which could enable its productive processes extract a commensurate level of profit from the market. To facilitate the knowledge-based industrialisation, the state should, not only create a conducive environment for industrial development but also play the lead role in transforming the peripheral and oil dependent economy to a knowledge-based economy by coordinating business organisations and investing in high-risk innovations.

Modélisation du comportement des bétons fibrés à ultra-hautes performances par la micromécanique : Effet de l'orientation des fibres à l'échelle de la structure

Cette thèse s’inscrit dans le contexte d’une optimisation industrielle et économique des éléments de structure en BFUP permettant d’en garantir la ductilité au niveau structural, tout en ajustant la quantité de fibres et en optimisant le mode de fabrication. Le modèle développé décrit explicitement la participation du renfort fibré en traction au niveau local, en enchaînant une phase de comportement écrouissante suivie d’une phase adoucissante. La loi de comportement est fonction de la densité, de l’orientation des fibres vis-à-vis des directions principales de traction, de leur élancement et d’autres paramètres matériaux usuels liés aux fibres, à la matrice cimentaire et à leur interaction. L’orientation des fibres est prise en compte à partir d’une loi de probabilité normale à une ou deux variables permettant de reproduire n’importe quelle orientation obtenue à partir d’un calcul représentatif de la mise en oeuvre du BFUP frais ou renseignée par analyse expérimentale sur prototype. Enfin, le modèle reproduit la fissuration des BFUP sur le principe des modèles de fissures diffuses et tournantes. La loi de comportement est intégrée au sein d’un logiciel de calcul de structure par éléments finis, permettant de l’utiliser comme un outil prédictif de la fiabilité et de la ductilité globale d’éléments en BFUP. Deux campagnes expérimentales ont été effectuées, une à l’Université Laval de Québec et l’autre à l’Ifsttar, Marne-la-Vallée. La première permet de valider la capacité du modèle reproduire le comportement global sous des sollicitations typiques de traction et de flexion dans des éléments structurels simples pour lesquels l’orientation préférentielle des fibres a été renseignée par tomographie. La seconde campagne expérimentale démontre les capacités du modèle dans une démarche d’optimisation, pour la fabrication de plaques nervurées relativement complexes et présentant un intérêt industriel potentiel pour lesquels différentes modalités de fabrication et des BFUP plus ou moins fibrés ont été envisagés. Le contrôle de la répartition et de l’orientation des fibres a été réalisé à partir d’essais mécaniques sur prélèvements. Les prévisions du modèle ont été confrontées au comportement structurel global et à la ductilité mis en évidence expérimentalement. Le modèle a ainsi pu être qualifié vis-à-vis des méthodes analytiques usuelles de l’ingénierie, en prenant en compte la variabilité statistique. Des pistes d’amélioration et de complément de développement ont été identifiées.

Simulations of forest loss in North America, the Amazon, and combined using the Community Earth System Model

The netcdf files in this archive comprise climate model output from Community Earth System Model for experiments looking at forest loss over Western North America and the Amazon. For further description of the model and configuration for these experiments please see the accompanying manuscript: Synergistic ecoclimate teleconnections from forest loss in different regions structure global ecological responses Elizabeth S. Garcia, Abigail L. S. Swann, Juan C. Villegas, David D. Breshears, Darin J. Law, Scott R. Saleska, and Scott C. Stark published in PLOS ONE, 2016. Contact information in README.txt

Do U.S. and Colombian macro factors improve the forecasting ability of unrestricted VAR models of the local term structure of interest rate?

Este estudio empírico compara la capacidad de los modelos Vectores auto-regresivos (VAR) sin restricciones para predecir la estructura temporal de las tasas de interés en Colombia -- Se comparan modelos VAR simples con modelos VAR aumentados con factores macroeconómicos y financieros colombianos y estadounidenses -- Encontramos que la inclusión de la información de los precios del petróleo, el riesgo de crédito de Colombia y un indicador internacional de la aversión al riesgo mejora la capacidad de predicción fuera de la muestra de los modelos VAR sin restricciones para vencimientos de corto plazo con frecuencia mensual -- Para vencimientos de mediano y largo plazo los modelos sin variables macroeconómicas presentan mejores pronósticos sugiriendo que las curvas de rendimiento de mediano y largo plazo ya incluyen toda la información significativa para pronosticarlos -- Este hallazgo tiene implicaciones importantes para los administradores de portafolios, participantes del mercado y responsables de las políticas

Essays on the term structure of interest rates

This PhD thesis contains three main chapters on macro finance, with a focus on the term structure of interest rates and the applications of state-of-the-art Bayesian econometrics. Except for Chapter 1 and Chapter 5, which set out the general introduction and conclusion, each of the chapters can be considered as a standalone piece of work. In Chapter 2, we model and predict the term structure of US interest rates in a data rich environment. We allow the model dimension and parameters to change over time, accounting for model uncertainty and sudden structural changes. The proposed timevarying parameter Nelson-Siegel Dynamic Model Averaging (DMA) predicts yields better than standard benchmarks. DMA performs better since it incorporates more macro-finance information during recessions. The proposed method allows us to estimate plausible realtime term premia, whose countercyclicality weakened during the financial crisis. Chapter 3 investigates global term structure dynamics using a Bayesian hierarchical factor model augmented with macroeconomic fundamentals. More than half of the variation in the bond yields of seven advanced economies is due to global co-movement. Our results suggest that global inflation is the most important factor among global macro fundamentals. Non-fundamental factors are essential in driving global co-movements, and are closely related to sentiment and economic uncertainty. Lastly, we analyze asymmetric spillovers in global bond markets connected to diverging monetary policies. Chapter 4 proposes a no-arbitrage framework of term structure modeling with learning and model uncertainty. The representative agent considers parameter instability, as well as the uncertainty in learning speed and model restrictions. The empirical evidence shows that apart from observational variance, parameter instability is the dominant source of predictive variance when compared with uncertainty in learning speed or model restrictions. When accounting for ambiguity aversion, the out-of-sample predictability of excess returns implied by the learning model can be translated into significant and consistent economic gains over the Expectations Hypothesis benchmark.

Essays on the term structure of interest rates

This PhD thesis contains three main chapters on macro finance, with a focus on the term structure of interest rates and the applications of state-of-the-art Bayesian econometrics. Except for Chapter 1 and Chapter 5, which set out the general introduction and conclusion, each of the chapters can be considered as a standalone piece of work. In Chapter 2, we model and predict the term structure of US interest rates in a data rich environment. We allow the model dimension and parameters to change over time, accounting for model uncertainty and sudden structural changes. The proposed time-varying parameter Nelson-Siegel Dynamic Model Averaging (DMA) predicts yields better than standard benchmarks. DMA performs better since it incorporates more macro-finance information during recessions. The proposed method allows us to estimate plausible real-time term premia, whose countercyclicality weakened during the financial crisis. Chapter 3 investigates global term structure dynamics using a Bayesian hierarchical factor model augmented with macroeconomic fundamentals. More than half of the variation in the bond yields of seven advanced economies is due to global co-movement. Our results suggest that global inflation is the most important factor among global macro fundamentals. Non-fundamental factors are essential in driving global co-movements, and are closely related to sentiment and economic uncertainty. Lastly, we analyze asymmetric spillovers in global bond markets connected to diverging monetary policies. Chapter 4 proposes a no-arbitrage framework of term structure modeling with learning and model uncertainty. The representative agent considers parameter instability, as well as the uncertainty in learning speed and model restrictions. The empirical evidence shows that apart from observational variance, parameter instability is the dominant source of predictive variance when compared with uncertainty in learning speed or model restrictions. When accounting for ambiguity aversion, the out-of-sample predictability of excess returns implied by the learning model can be translated into significant and consistent economic gains over the Expectations Hypothesis benchmark.

Regional differences of outpatient physician supply as a theoretical economic and empirical generalized linear model

BACKGROUND: Regional differences in physician supply can be found in many health care systems, regardless of their organizational and financial structure. A theoretical model is developed for the physicians' decision on office allocation, covering demand-side factors and a consumption time function. METHODS: To test the propositions following the theoretical model, generalized linear models were estimated to explain differences in 412 German districts. Various factors found in the literature were included to control for physicians' regional preferences. RESULTS: Evidence in favor of the first three propositions of the theoretical model could be found. Specialists show a stronger association to higher populated districts than GPs. Although indicators for regional preferences are significantly correlated with physician density, their coefficients are not as high as population density. CONCLUSIONS: If regional disparities should be addressed by political actions, the focus should be to counteract those parameters representing physicians' preferences in over- and undersupplied regions.

The symbolic, socio-economic and exchange value of Imperial German and National Socialist medals and badges, 1701 to the present

This thesis examines the manufacture, use, exchange (including gift exchange), collecting and commodification of German medals and badges from the early 18th century until the present-day, with particular attention being given to the symbols that were deployed by the National Socialist German Workers’ Party (NSDAP) between 1919 and 1945. It does so by focusing in particular on the construction of value through insignia, and how such badges and their symbolic and monetary value changed over time. In order to achieve this, the thesis adopts a chronological structure, which encompasses the creation of Prussia in 1701, the Napoleonic wars and the increased democratisation of military awards such as the Iron Cross during the Great War. The collapse of the Kaiserreich in 1918 was the major factor that led to the creation of the NSDAP under the eventual strangle-hold of Hitler, a fundamentally racist and anti-Semitic movement that continued the German tradition of awarding and wearing badges. The traditional symbols of Imperial Germany, such as the eagle, were then infused with the swastika, an emblem that was meant to signify anti-Semitism, thus creating a hybrid identity. This combination was then replicated en-masse, and eventually eclipsed all the symbols that had possessed symbolic significance in Germany’s past. After Hitler was appointed Chancellor in 1933, millions of medals and badges were produced in an effort to create a racially based “People’s Community”, but the steel and iron that were required for munitions eventually led to substitute materials being utilised and developed in order to manufacture millions of politically oriented badges. The Second World War unleashed Nazi terror across Europe, and the conscripts and volunteers who took part in this fight for living-space were rewarded with medals that were modelled on those that had been instituted during Imperial times. The colonial conquest and occupation of the East by the Wehrmacht, the Order Police and the Waffen-SS surpassed the brutality of former wars that finally culminated in the Holocaust, and some of these horrific crimes and the perpetrators of them were perversely rewarded with medals and badges. Despite Nazism being thoroughly discredited, many of the Allied soldiers who occupied Germany took part in the age-old practice of obtaining trophies of war, which reconfigured the meaning of Nazi badges as souvenirs, and began the process of their increased commodification on an emerging secondary collectors’ market. In order to analyse the dynamics of this market, a “basket” of badges is examined that enables a discussion of the role that aesthetics, scarcity and authenticity have in determining the price of the artefacts. In summary, this thesis demonstrates how the symbolic, socio-economic and exchange value of German military and political medals and badges has changed substantially over time, provides a stimulus for scholars to conduct research in this under-developed area, and encourages collectors to investigate the artefacts that they collect in a more historically contextualised manner.

Bacterial community structure of the marine diatom Haslea ostrearia

The marine diatom Haslea ostrearia produces a water-soluble blue-pigment named marennine of economic interest (e.g. in aquaculture for the greening of oysters). Up to date the studies devoted to ecological conditions under which this microalga develops never took into account the bacterial-H. ostrearia relationships. In this study the bacterial community was analysed by PCR-TTGE before and after H. ostrearia isolation cells recovered from 4 localities, to distinguish the relative part of the biotope and the biocenose and eventually to describe the temporal dynamic of the structure of the bacterial community. The bacterial structure of the phycosphere differed strongly from that of the bulk sediment. The similarity between bacteria recovered from the biofilm and the suspended bacteria did not exceed 10% (vs. > 90% amongst biofilms). The differences in genetic fingerprints, more especially high between two H. ostrearia isolates showed also the highest differences in the bacterial structure as the result of specific metabolomics profiles. The non-targeted metabolomic investigation showed that these profiles were more distinct in case of bacteria-alga associations than for the H. ostrearia monoculture. At the scale of a culture cycle in laboratory conditions, the bacterial community was specific to the growth stage. When H. ostrearia was subcultured for 9 months, a shift in the bacterial structure was shown from 3-months subculturing and the bacterial structure stabilized afterwards (70-86% similarities). A first insight of the relationships between H. ostrearia and its surrounding bacteria was shown for a better understanding of the ecological feature of this diatom.