The statistical downscaling model-decision centric (SDSM-DC): conceptual basis and applications

Regional climate downscaling has arrived at an important juncture. Some in the research community favour continued refinement and evaluation of downscaling techniques within a broader framework of uncertainty characterisation and reduction. Others are calling for smarter use of downscaling tools, accepting that conventional, scenario-led strategies for adaptation planning have limited utility in practice. This paper sets out the rationale and new functionality of the Decision Centric (DC) version of the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM-DC). This tool enables synthesis of plausible daily weather series, exotic variables (such as tidal surge), and climate change scenarios guided, not determined, by climate model output. Two worked examples are presented. The first shows how SDSM-DC can be used to reconstruct and in-fill missing records based on calibrated predictor-predictand relationships. Daily temperature and precipitation series from sites in Africa, Asia and North America are deliberately degraded to show that SDSM-DC can reconstitute lost data. The second demonstrates the application of the new scenario generator for stress testing a specific adaptation decision. SDSM-DC is used to generate daily precipitation scenarios to simulate winter flooding in the Boyne catchment, Ireland. This sensitivity analysis reveals the conditions under which existing precautionary allowances for climate change might be insufficient. We conclude by discussing the wider implications of the proposed approach and research opportunities presented by the new tool.

The impact of uncertain precipitation data on insurance loss estimates using a flood catastrophe model

Catastrophe risk models used by the insurance industry are likely subject to significant uncertainty, but due to their proprietary nature and strict licensing conditions they are not available for experimentation. In addition, even if such experiments were conducted, these would not be repeatable by other researchers because commercial confidentiality issues prevent the details of proprietary catastrophe model structures from being described in public domain documents. However, such experimentation is urgently required to improve decision making in both insurance and reinsurance markets. In this paper we therefore construct our own catastrophe risk model for flooding in Dublin, Ireland, in order to assess the impact of typical precipitation data uncertainty on loss predictions. As we consider only a city region rather than a whole territory and have access to detailed data and computing resources typically unavailable to industry modellers, our model is significantly more detailed than most commercial products. The model consists of four components, a stochastic rainfall module, a hydrological and hydraulic flood hazard module, a vulnerability module, and a financial loss module. Using these we undertake a series of simulations to test the impact of driving the stochastic event generator with four different rainfall data sets: ground gauge data, gauge-corrected rainfall radar, meteorological reanalysis data (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis-Interim; ERA-Interim) and a satellite rainfall product (The Climate Prediction Center morphing method; CMORPH). Catastrophe models are unusual because they use the upper three components of the modelling chain to generate a large synthetic database of unobserved and severe loss-driving events for which estimated losses are calculated. We find the loss estimates to be more sensitive to uncertainties propagated from the driving precipitation data sets than to other uncertainties in the hazard and vulnerability modules, suggesting that the range of uncertainty within catastrophe model structures may be greater than commonly believed.

DC traction load flow including AC distribution network

In the first part some information and characterisation about an AC distribution network that feeds traction substations and their possible influences on the DC traction load flow are presented. Those influences are investigated and mathematically modelled. To corroborate the mathematical model, an example is presented and their results are confronted with real measurements.

Mixed multiplicities and the minimal number of generator of modules

Let (R, m) be a d-dimensional Noetherian local ring. In this work we prove that the mixed Buchsbaum-Rim multiplicity for a finite family of R-submodules of R(p) of finite colength coincides with the Buchsbaum-Rim multiplicity of the module generated by a suitable superficial sequence, that is, we generalize for modules the well-known Risler-Teissier theorem. As a consequence, we give a new proof of a generalization for modules of the fundamental Rees` mixed Multiplicity theorem, which was first proved by Kirby and Rees in (1994, [8]). We use the above result to give an upper bound for the minimal number of generators of a finite colength R-submodule of R(p) in terms of mixed multiplicities for modules, which generalize a similar bound obtained by Cruz and Verma in (2000, [5]) for m-primary ideals. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Ac and dc magnetotransport properties of the phase-separated La(0.6)Y(0.1)Ca(0.3)MnO(3) manganite

The physical properties of the La(0.6)Y(0.1)Ca(0.3)MnO(3) compound have been investigated, focusing on the magnetoresistance phenomenon studied by both dc and ac electrical transport measurements. X-ray diffraction and scanning electron microscopy analysis of ceramic samples prepared by the sol-gel method revealed that specimens are single phase and have average grain size of similar to 0.5 mu m. Magnetization and 4-probe dc electrical resistivity rho(T,H) experiments showed that a ferromagnetic transition at T(C) similar to 170 K is closely related to a metal-insulator (MI) transition occurring at essentially the same temperature T(MI). The magnetoresistance effect was found to be more pronounced at low applied fields (H <= 2.5 T) and temperatures close to the MI transition. The ac electrical transport was investigated by impedance spectroscopy Z(f,T,H) under applied magnetic field H up to 1 T. The Z(f,T,H) data exhibited two well-defined relaxation processes that exhibit different behaviors depending on the temperature and applied magnetic field. Pronounced effects were observed close to T (C) and were associated with the coexistence of clusters with different electronic and magnetic properties. In addition, the appreciable decrease of the electrical permittivity epsilon`(T,H) is consistent with changes in the concentration of e(g) mobile holes, a feature much more pronounced close to T (C).

Single Synapse Information Coding in Intraburst Spike Patterns of Central Pattern Generator Motor Neurons

Burst firing is ubiquitous in nervous systems and has been intensively studied in central pattern generators (CPGs). Previous works have described subtle intraburst spike patterns (IBSPs) that, despite being traditionally neglected for their lack of relation to CPG motor function, were shown to be cell-type specific and sensitive to CPG connectivity. Here we address this matter by investigating how a bursting motor neuron expresses information about other neurons in the network. We performed experiments on the crustacean stomatogastric pyloric CPG, both in control conditions and interacting in real-time with computer model neurons. The sensitivity of postsynaptic to presynaptic IBSPs was inferred by computing their average mutual information along each neuron burst. We found that details of input patterns are nonlinearly and inhomogeneously coded through a single synapse into the fine IBSPs structure of the postsynaptic neuron following burst. In this way, motor neurons are able to use different time scales to convey two types of information simultaneously: muscle contraction (related to bursting rhythm) and the behavior of other CPG neurons (at a much shorter timescale by using IBSPs as information carriers). Moreover, the analysis revealed that the coding mechanism described takes part in a previously unsuspected information pathway from a CPG motor neuron to a nerve that projects to sensory brain areas, thus providing evidence of the general physiological role of information coding through IBSPs in the regulation of neuronal firing patterns in remote circuits by the CNS.

Bioluminescent sensor for naphthalene in air: Cell immobilization and evaluation with a dynamic standard atmosphere generator

A dynamic atmosphere generator with a naphthalene emission source has been constructed and used for the development and evaluation of a bioluminescence sensor based on the bacteria Pseudomonas fluorescens HK44 immobilized in 2% agar gel (101 cell mL(-1)) placed in sampling tubes. A steady naphthalene emission rate (around 7.3 nmol min(-1) at 27 degrees C and 7.4 mLmin(-1) of purified air) was obtained by covering the diffusion unit containing solid naphthalene with a PTFE filter membrane. The time elapsed from gelation of the agar matrix to analyte exposure (""maturation time"") was found relevant for the bioluminescence assays, being most favorable between 1.5 and 3 h. The maximum light emission, observed after 80 min, is dependent on the analyte concentration and the exposure time (evaluated between 5 and 20 min), but not on the flow rate of naphthalene in the sampling tube, over the range of 1.8-7.4 nmol min(-1). A good linear response was obtained between 50 and 260 nmol L-1 with a limit of detection estimated in 20 nmol L-1 far below the recommended threshold limit value for naphthalene in air. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Unified Load Generator for Geographically Distributed Generation ofNetwork Traffic

During the last decade, the Internet usage has been growing at an enormous rate which has beenaccompanied by the developments of network applications (e.g., video conference, audio/videostreaming, E-learning, E-Commerce and real-time applications) and allows several types ofinformation including data, voice, picture and media streaming. While end-users are demandingvery high quality of service (QoS) from their service providers, network undergoes a complex trafficwhich leads the transmission bottlenecks. Considerable effort has been made to study thecharacteristics and the behavior of the Internet. Simulation modeling of computer networkcongestion is a profitable and effective technique which fulfills the requirements to evaluate theperformance and QoS of networks. To simulate a single congested link, simulation is run with asingle load generator while for a larger simulation with complex traffic, where the nodes are spreadacross different geographical locations generating distributed artificial loads is indispensable. Onesolution is to elaborate a load generation system based on master/slave architecture.

Studie av subsynkron interaktion (SSTI) mellan ett HVDC system med spänningsstyva strömriktare och en närliggande generator

Syftet med examensarbetet är att studera den subsynkrona interaktionen (subsynchronous torsional interaktion, SSTI) mellan ett HVDC system med spänningsstyva strömriktare och en närliggande generator. Studien utförs med hjälp av datorsimuleringar och fokuserar på att studera dämpkaraktäristiken för SSTI. Studien ska visa hur faktorer såsom den överförda effektens storlek och riktning, vald driftmod och kraftsystemets kortslutningseffekt påverkar dämpkaraktäristiken. Rapporten beskriver subsynkron oscillation (SSO) och tillvägagångssättet vid en SSTI undersökning. En kort introduktion till HVDC Light ges. Studien visar att HVDC Light ökar dämpningen för det frekvensområde som är intressant. Resultaten presenteras som diagram med beräknad dämpkaraktäristik.

O Supremo Tribunal Federal para além das Ações Diretas de Inconstitucionalidade

Este livro é resultado da pesquisa conduzida no âmbito do “Núcleo de Justiça e Constituição” da Escola de Direito de São Paulo da Fundação Getulio Vargas – FGV DIREITO SP. A pesquisa foi realizada por integrantes do Núcleo e com financiamento da Fapesp entre março de 2012 e fevereiro de 2013. Teve como objetivo analisar a atuação do Supremo Tribunal Federal (STF) enquanto Corte recursal, função exercida especialmente por meio do julgamento de recursos extraordinários. O nosso estudo examina o processo de tomada de decisão do STF nos recursos extraordinários julgados em Plenário, de 5 de setembro de 2007 a 1º de setembro de 2009. Esse é o maior período no qual a composição do Tribunal permaneceu estável desde 2000. Nesse intervalo de tempo, integravam o STF as Ministras e os Ministros: Celso de Mello, Marco Aurélio, Gilmar Mendes, Ellen Gracie, Carlos Britto, Cezar Peluso, Eros Grau, Joaquim Barbosa, Ricardo Lewandowski, Cármen Lúcia e Menezes Direito. Optou-se por investigar somente as decisões tomadas em sede de Plenário, por sua relevância qualitativa.

AC Biosusceptometry as a Tool for Monitoring the Gastrointestinal Transit of Multiparticulate Drug Delivery System

Drug delivery systems based on natural polysaccharides, such as chitosan (CS) and pectin (PC), rather than on synthetic polymers, have been widely studied. Some reasons for that are low toxicity and costs and high biodegradability of the formers. A multiparticulate system based on CS and PC was developed in our laboratories, including the addition of an enteric polymer, cellulose acetate phtalate (CAP). Such improvement promoted stronger gastric and enteric resistances, as assessed in vitro, making the systems more selective to enzymatic degradation in the colon. Although in vitro dissolution tests can simulate some properties concerning the gastrointestinal transit (GT), collaborating to characterize the systems behavior in the biological fluids, frequently they do not result in satisfactory in vitro/in vivo correlations. The objective of this work was to follow in vivo the GT of the particles developed by means of AC biosusceptometry (ACB), a non-invasive and of low cost methodology. The particles containing ferrite in powder form were prepared by complex coacervation using an ideal 3:1:1 mass ratio for PC:CS:CAP. The magnetic particles were administered to healthy volunteers by oral route. The GT was monitored by using multi-sensor ACB system and the signal acquisition was performed every IS min until the colonic region was reached. By means of ACB technique, it was possible to acquiring images generated by the magnetic particles within the whole gastrointestinal tract including the colonic region. Variable particles transit times were observed among the volunteers, but without interference on the mapping of the particles until the colonic region. The particles were able to produce magnetic field strong enough to generate signals adequate for mapping the particles. The results suggest that integral particles reached the colon, after they resisted against gastric and enteric media. Studies associating transit time and in vivo drug release are in development in order to confirm the efficiency of the systems.

Analysis of the E-J Curve of HTS Tapes Under DC and AC Magnetic Fields at 77 K

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

DC and AC side harmonics in CCC converters

The capacitor-commutated converter (CCC) has frequently been used in the conception of HVDC systems connected to busbars with low short circuit level. This alternative arrangement, in substitution to the conventional ones, guarantees less sensitive operational conditions to problems related with the commutation failure in the inverters besides supplying part of the reactive energy to be compensated. Studies related with its performance in steady and transient states have been presented in several works, however its behavior as harmonic source is still little explored. This work presents preliminary studies focusing the generation of characteristic harmonics by this type of converter. Subjects related with the amplification of the harmonic magnitudes are investigated and compared considering similar arrangements of conventional static converters (LCC) and CCC schemes. It is also analyzed the harmonic generation on the dc side of the installation and its influence on the ac side harmonics. The results are obtained from simulations in the time domain in PSpice environment and they clearly illustrate the operational differences between the L CC and the CCC schemes with regard to characteristic harmonic generation.

DCM Boost interleaved converter for operation in AC and DC to trolleybus application

This paper is based on the development and experimental analysis of a DCM Boost interleaved converter suitable for application in traction systems of electrical vehicles pulled by electrical motors (Trolleybus), which are powered by urban DC or AC distribution networks. This front-end structure is capable of providing significant improvements in trolleybuses systems and in the urban distribution network costs, and efficiency. The architecture of proposed converter is composed by five boost power cells in interleaving connection, operating in discontinuous conduction mode. Furthermore, the converter can operate as AC-DC converter, or as DC-DC converter providing the proper DC output voltage range required by DC or AC adjustable speed drivers. Therefore, when supplied by single-phase AC distribution networks, and operating as AC-DC converter, it is capable to provide high power factor, reduced harmonic distortion in the input current, complying with the restrictions imposed by the IEC 61000-3-4 standards. The digital controller has been implemented using a low cost FPGA and developed totally using a hardware description language VHDL and fixed point arithmetic. Thus, two control strategies are evaluated considering the compliance with input current restrictions imposed by IEC 61000-3-4 standards, the regular PWM modulation and a current correction PWM modulation. In order to verify the feasibility and performance of the proposed system, experimental results from a 15 kW low power scale prototype are presented, operating in DC and AC conditions.

Efficient method for AC transmission network expansion planning

A combinatorial mathematical model in tandem with a metaheuristic technique for solving transmission network expansion planning (TNEP) using an AC model associated with reactive power planning (RPP) is presented in this paper. AC-TNEP is handled through a prior DC model while additional lines as well as VAr-plants are used as reinforcements to cope with real network requirements. The solution of the reinforcement stage can be obtained by assuming all reactive demands are supplied locally to achieve a solution for AC-TNEP and by neglecting the local reactive sources, a reactive power planning (RPP) will be managed to find the minimum required reactive power sources. Binary GA as well as a real genetic algorithm (RCA) are employed as metaheuristic optimization techniques for solving this combinatorial TNEP as well as the RPP problem. High quality results related with lower investment costs through case studies on test systems show the usefulness of the proposal when working directly with the AC model in transmission network expansion planning, instead of relaxed models. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.