Retrospective Voting in Turkey: Macro and Micro Perspectives

Recent studies have shown that party systems in emerging democracies do not always adequately reflect the various cleavages of society. Under such circumstances, retrospective voting may play a more important role than cleavage voting in determining electoral outcomes. For studies of retrospective voting, the choice between macro and micro level as the independent variable is a major methodological issue. Using individual-level data on Turkey, this paper addresses two major questions: (1) Are voters' decisions based on household economic conditions or national economic conditions? Do sociopolitical conditions also count? (2) Does the future evaluation of the economy affect voting decisions apart from past evaluation? Logit models are used in this research to answer these questions.

Economic voting and electoral volatility in Turkish provinces

Two groups of questions were addressed in this paper: (1) Is voter punishment of the incumbent the primary factor in electoral volatility? Are there any other types of vote swings that underlie volatility? (2) In general, does a decline in economic growth destabilize voter behavior? If so, what kinds of vote swings does an economic downturn tend to generate? Provincial-level panel data analysis yielded the following results: (1) Changes in volatility is primarily due to vote swings from the incumbent to the opposition and also to and from left-wing and right-wing parties. (2) Lower economic growth increases electoral volatility. Economic decline induces vote swings not only from the government to the opposition but also from left-wing to right-wing parties. This is probably because right-wing parties seem more concerned with economic issues and are thus more popular than left-wing parties with lower-income voters.

A Critical Review of Opinion Polls relating to Iranian Voting Intentions: Problems of Research Methodology as applied to Complex Societies

After the 10th Iranian Presidential election on June 12, 2009, several public opinion polls taken in Iran attracted the attention of policy-makers and journalists around the world because of the political crisis that followed. In this paper I first review critically the polls conducted by the WPO (WorldPublicOpinion.org), PIPA (Program on International Policy Attitudes) at the University of Maryland. I also review an essay by Steven Kull, which is based on the aforementioned poll results and which in my opinion leads to false conclusions concerning Iran’s political prospects. I also discuss “An Analysis of Multiple Polls of the Iranian Public,” published by WPO-PIPA on February 3 2010. The present paper arrives at the overall conclusion that it is impossible to obtain an accurate image of political opinions in societies as complicated as that of Iran by concentrating on only one technique of research and analysis, especially when the political and social situation in the society concerned is in a state of constant flux.

Non-economic voting and incumbent strength in Turkey

Evidence suggests that incumbent parties find it harder to be re-elected in emerging than in advanced democracies because of more serious economic problems in the former. Yet the pro-Islamic Justice and Development Party (AKP) has ruled Turkey since 2002. Does economic performance sufficiently account for the electoral strength of the AKP government? Reliance on economic performance alone to gain public support makes a government vulnerable to economic fluctuations. This study includes time-series regressions for the period 1950-2011 in Turkey and demonstrates that even among Turkey's long-lasting governments, the AKP has particular electoral strength that cannot be adequately explained by economic performance.

Voting behavior in Indonesia from 1999 to 2014 : religious cleavage or economic performance?

In this study, we examine the voting behavior in Indonesian parliamentary elections from 1999 to 2014. After summarizing the changes in Indonesian parties' share of the vote from a historical standpoint, we investigate the voting behavior with simple regression models to analyze the effect of regional characteristics on Islamic/secular parties' vote share, using aggregated panel data at the district level. Then, we also test the hypothesis of retrospective economic voting. The results show that districts which formerly stood strongly behind Islamic parties continued to select those parties, or gave preference to abstention over the parties in some elections. From the point of view of retrospective economic voting, we found that districts which experienced higher per capita economic growth gave more support to the ruling parties, although our results remain tentative because information on 2014 is not yet available.

Diffusion Tensor Imaging in Alzheimer's disease

Attentional control and Information processing speed are central concepts in cognitive psychology and neuropsychology. Functional neuroimaging and neuropsychological assessment have depicted theoretical models considering attention as a complex and non-unitary process. One of its component processes, Attentional set-shifting ability, is commonly assessed using the Trail Making Test (TMT). Performance in the TMT decreases with increasing age in adults, Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI) and Alzheimer’s Disease (AD). Besides, speed of information processing (SIP) seems to modulate attentional performance. While neural correlates of attentional control have been widely studied, there are few evidences about the neural substrates of SIP in these groups of patients. Different authors have suggested that it could be a property of cerebral white matter, thus, deterioration of the white matter tracts that connect brain regions related to set-shifting may underlie the age-related, MCI and AD decrease in performance. The aim of this study was to study the anatomical dissociation of attentional and speed mechanisms. Diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) provides a unique insight into the cellular integrity of the brain, offering an in vivo view into the microarchitecture of cerebral white matter. At the same time, the study of ageing, characterized by white matter decline, provides the opportunity to study the anatomical substrates speeded or slowed information processing. We hypothesized that FA values would be inversely correlated with time to completion on Parts A and B of the TMT, but not the derived scores B/A and B-A.

The correlation between white-matter microstructure and the complexity of spontaneous brain activity: A difussion tensor imaging-MEG study

The advent of new signal processing methods, such as non-linear analysis techniques, represents a new perspective which adds further value to brain signals' analysis. Particularly, Lempel–Ziv's Complexity (LZC) has proven to be useful in exploring the complexity of the brain electromagnetic activity. However, an important problem is the lack of knowledge about the physiological determinants of these measures. Although acorrelation between complexity and connectivity has been proposed, this hypothesis was never tested in vivo. Thus, the correlation between the microstructure of the anatomic connectivity and the functional complexity of the brain needs to be inspected. In this study we analyzed the correlation between LZC and fractional anisotropy (FA), a scalar quantity derived from diffusion tensors that is particularly useful as an estimate of the functional integrity of myelinated axonal fibers, in a group of sixteen healthy adults (all female, mean age 65.56 ± 6.06 years, intervals 58–82). Our results showed a positive correlation between FA and LZC scores in regions including clusters in the splenium of the corpus callosum, cingulum, parahipocampal regions and the sagittal stratum. This study supports the notion of a positive correlation between the functional complexity of the brain and the microstructure of its anatomical connectivity. Our investigation proved that a combination of neuroanatomical and neurophysiological techniques may shed some light on the underlying physiological determinants of brain's oscillations

Analysis of electronic and telematic voting systems in binding experiences

This paper is about analysis and assess of three experiences on telematic and electronic voting dealing with such aspects as security and achievement of the social requirements. These experiences have been chosen taking into account the deepness of the public documentation and the technological challenge they faces.

Use of Java Cards in a telematic voting system.

This paper presents a general view of the telematic voting system developed by its authors, with a special emphasis on the important role that smart cards play in this scenario. The use of smart cards as basic pieces for providing secure cryptographic operations in this type of voting scheme is justified. The differences and advantages of Java Cards in comparison with the ?classical? smart cards (those that completely conform to the ISO/IEC 7816 standard) are also discussed. As an example, the paper describes one of the applets implemented in the voting Java Card as part of the general telematic voting application.

VOTESCRIPT: Telematic voting system designed to enable final count verification

In this paper we present a global description of a telematic voting system based on advanced cryptography and on the use of smart cards (VOTESCRIPT system) whose most outstanding characteristic is the ability to verify that the tally carried out by the system is correct, meaning that the results published by the system correspond with votes cast. The VOTESCRIPT system provides an individual verification mechanism allowing each Voter to confirm whether his vote has been correctly counted. The innovation with respect to other solutions lies in the fact that the verification process is private so that Voters have no way of proving what they voted in the presence of a non-authorized third party. Vote buying and selling or any other kind of extortion are prevented. The existence of the Intervention Systems allows the whole electoral process to be controlled by groups of citizens or authorized candidatures. In addition to this the system can simply make an audit not only of the final results, but also of the whole process. Global verification provides the Scrutineers with robust cryptographic evidence which enables unequivocal proof if the system has operated in a fraudulent way.