Sacral fusion as an aid in age estimation

The degree of fusion at the anterior aspect of the sacral vertebrae has been scored in 242 male and female skeletons from the Lisbon documented collection, ranging in age from 16 to 59 years old. Statistical tests indicate a sex difference towards earlier fusion in young females compared with young males, as well as a clear association between degree of fusion and age. Similar results have been found in documented skeletal samples from Coimbra and Sassari, and the recommendations stated by these authors regarding age estimation have been positively tested in the Lisbon collection. Although more research from geographically diverse samples is required, a general picture of the pattern of sacral fusion and its associations with age and sex is emerging. We also provide a practical example of the usefulness of the sacrum in age estimation in a forensic setting, a mass grave from the Spanish Civil War. It is concluded that the scoring of the degree of fusion of the sacral vertebrae, specially of S1-2, can be a simple tool for assigning skeletons to broad age groups, and it should be implemented as another resource for age estimation in the study of human skeletal remains.

Estimation de l'impact économique de l'introduction d'un test diagnostique rapide pour le dépistage des MRSA au CHUV

Contexte : Parmi les infections nosocomiales, le Staphylocoque méticilline résistant (MRSA) est le germe pathogène le plus couramment identifié dans les hôpitaux du monde entier. La stratégie de contrôle des MRSA au CHUV implique le dépistage des patients à risque. Avec la méthode de dépistage par culture, le temps d'attente est de plusieurs jours. Ceci occasionne des problèmes dans la gestion des flux des patients, principalement à cause des mesures d'isolement. Pour réduire le temps d'attente, l'hôpital envisage d'utiliser une méthode de diagnostic rapide par "polymerase chain reaction" (PCR). Méthodologie : Les données concernant les dépistages réalisés, dans trois services durant l'année 2007, ont été utilisées. Le nombre de jours d'isolement a d'abord été déterminé par patient et par service. Ensuite une analyse des coûts a été effectuée afin d'évaluer la différence des coûts entre les deux méthodes pour chaque service. Résultats : Le principal impact économique de la méthode par PCR dépend principalement du nombre de jours d'isolements évités par rapport à la méthode de culture. Aux services de soins, l'analyse a été menée sur 192 dépistages. Quand la différence de jours d'isolement est de deux jours, le coût des dépistages diminue de plus de 12kCHF et le nombre de jours d'isolement diminue de 384 jours. Au centre interdisciplinaire des urgences, sur 96 dépistages, le gain potentiel avec la méthode PCR est de 6kCHF avec une diminution de 192 jours d'isolement. Aux soins intensifs adultes, la méthode de dépistage par PCR est la méthode la plus rentable avec une diminution des coûts entre 4KCHF et 20K CHF et une diminution des jours d'isolement entre 170 et 310. Pour les trois services analysés, les résultats montrent un rapport coût-efficacité favorable pour la méthode PCR lorsque la diminution des jours d'isolement est supérieure à 1.3 jour. Quand la différence de jours d'isolement est inférieure à 1.3, il faut tenir compte d'autres paramètres, comme le coût de matériel qui doit être supérieur à 45.5 CHF, et du nombre d'analyses par dépistage, qui doit être inférieur à 3, pour que la PCR reste l'alternative la plus intéressante. Conclusions : La méthode par PCR montre des avantages potentiels importants, tant économiques qu'organisationnels qui limitent ou diminuent les contraintes liées à la stratégie de contrôle des MRSA au CHUV. [Auteure, p. 3]

Estimation des coûts engendrés par l'occupation inappropriée des lits de soins aigus du CHUV par des patients en attente de placement

[Table des matières] 1. Pourquoi s'intéresser à l'occupation inappropriée des lits de soins aigus au CHUV ?. - 1.1. Etat des lieux. - 1.1.1. Les chiffres du CHUV. - 1.1.2. La cellule de gestion des flux de patients. - 1.1.3. L'unité de patients en attente de placement. - 1.1.4. La pénurie de lits dans les EMS vaudois. - 1.1.5. Le vieillissement de la population vaudoise. - 1.2. Evidences nationales et internationales. - - 2. Estimation des coûts. - 2.1. Coûts chiffrables. - 2.1.1. Perte financière directe. - 2.1.2. Coûts des transferts pour engorgement. - 2.1.3. Coût d'opportunité. - 2.2. Coûts non chiffrables. - 2.2.1. Patients. - 2.2.2. Personnel médical. - 2.2.3. CHUV. - - 3. Propositions. - 3.1. Prises en charge alternatives. - 3.1.1. Les réseaux intégrés de services aux personnes âgées. - 3.1.2. Les courts séjours gériatriques. - 3.1.3. Autres solutions. - 3.2. Prévention. - 3.2.1. Prévention des chutes. - 3.2.2. La prévention par l'information aux personnes âgées. - 3.2.3. La prévention par l'information à l'ensemble de la population

Factors of customer project profitability in an engineering industrial enterprise

The purpose of the study is to find factors affecting projects' profitability in project business. The issue is approached from customer profitability and project management point of view. The study has been made for a big Finnish company acting in a global market place. The research method is quantitative. Research hypotheses are based on the literature. The used database is originated from the company's ERP- (enterprise resource planning) and project financial follow-up —system. The findings of the study supported the hypotheses weakly. Obviously profitability fluctuated depending on a customer and a project manager. The reasons could not be justified with the variables used in the research.

Bayesian Estimation of Noise

In mathematical modeling the estimation of the model parameters is one of the most common problems. The goal is to seek parameters that fit to the measurements as well as possible. There is always error in the measurements which implies uncertainty to the model estimates. In Bayesian statistics all the unknown quantities are presented as probability distributions. If there is knowledge about parameters beforehand, it can be formulated as a prior distribution. The Bays’ rule combines the prior and the measurements to posterior distribution. Mathematical models are typically nonlinear, to produce statistics for them requires efficient sampling algorithms. In this thesis both Metropolis-Hastings (MH), Adaptive Metropolis (AM) algorithms and Gibbs sampling are introduced. In the thesis different ways to present prior distributions are introduced. The main issue is in the measurement error estimation and how to obtain prior knowledge for variance or covariance. Variance and covariance sampling is combined with the algorithms above. The examples of the hyperprior models are applied to estimation of model parameters and error in an outlier case.

A correlation sensitivity analysis of non-life underwriting risk in solvency capital requirement estimation

This paper analyses the impact of using different correlation assumptions between lines of business when estimating the risk-based capital reserve, the Solvency Capital Requirement -SCR-, under Solvency II regulations. A case study is presented and the SCR is calculated according to the Standard Model approach. Alternatively, the requirement is then calculated using an Internal Model based on a Monte Carlo simulation of the net underwriting result at a one-year horizon, with copulas being used to model the dependence between lines of business. To address the impact of these model assumptions on the SCR we conduct a sensitivity analysis. We examine changes in the correlation matrix between lines of business and address the choice of copulas. Drawing on aggregate historical data from the Spanish non-life insurance market between 2000 and 2009, we conclude that modifications of the correlation and dependence assumptions have a significant impact on SCR estimation.

Feasibility Study and Market Review of Small Scale Bioenergy Heating Plants in North-West Russia

The paper is focused on feasibility study and market review of small scale bioenergy heating plants in the Russian North-West region. The main focus is effective and competitive usage of low-grade wood for heating purposes in the region. As example of economical feasibility estimation it was chosen the project of reconstruction of small scale boiler plant in Leningrad region that Brofta Oy is planning to implement the nearest time. It includes calculation the payback time with and without interest, the estimation of probable investments, the evaluation of possible risks and research on the potential of small scale heating plants projects. Calculations show that the profitability of this kind of projects is high, but payback time is not very short, because of high level of initial investments. Though, the development of small scale bioenergy heating plants in the region is considered to be the best way to solve the problems of heat supply in small settlements using own biomass resources.

Analyzing customer profitability: an empirical study

The purpose of this study was to define the customer profitability of the case company as well as to specify the factors that explain customer profitability. The study was made with a quantitative research method. The research hypotheses were formulated mainly on the grounds of previous research, and were tested with statistical research methods. The research results showed that customer profitability is not equally distributed among the customers of the case company, and the majority of its customers is profitable. The interpreters for absolute customer profitability were sales volume and the customer’s location region. The interpreters for relative customer profitability were the customer’s location region and the product segment into which a customer can be classified on the basis of the products that were sold to this customer.

Models for the estimation of thermodynamic properties of layered double hydroxides: application to the study of their anion exchange characteristics

Several models for the estimation of thermodynamic properties of layered double hydroxides (LDHs) are presented. The predicted thermodynamic quantities calculated by the proposed models agree with experimental thermodynamic data. A thermodynamic study of the anion exchange process on LDHs is also made using the described models. Tables for the prediction of monovalent anion exchange selectivities on LDHs are provided. Reasonable agreement is found between the predicted and the experimental monovalent anion exchange selectivities.

Estimation of Water Circulation in a Mediterranean Salt Marsh and its Relationship with Flooding Causes

Variations in water volume in small depressions in Mediterranean salt marshes in Girona (Spain) are described and the potential causes for these variations analysed. Although the basins appear to be endorrheic, groundwater circulation is intense, as estimated from the difference between water volume observed and that expected from the balance precipitation / evaporation. The rate of variation in volume (VR = AV / VAt) may be used to estimate groundwater supply ('circulation'), since direct measurements of this parameter are impossible. Volume.conductivity figures can also be used to estimate the quantity of circulation, and to investigate the origin of water supplied to the system. The relationships between variations in the volume of water in the basins and the main causes of flooding are also analysed. Sea storms, rainfall levels and strong, dry northerly winds are suggested as the main causes of the variations in the volumes of basins. The relative importance assigned to these factors has changed, following the recent regulation of freshwater flows entering the system

Estimation of age- and stage-specific Catalan breast cancer survival functions using US and Catalan survival data

During the last part of the 1990s the chance of surviving breast cancer increased. Changes in survival functions reflect a mixture of effects. Both, the introduction of adjuvant treatments and early screening with mammography played a role in the decline in mortality. Evaluating the contribution of these interventions using mathematical models requires survival functions before and after their introduction. Furthermore, required survival functions may be different by age groups and are related to disease stage at diagnosis. Sometimes detailed information is not available, as was the case for the region of Catalonia (Spain). Then one may derive the functions using information from other geographical areas. This work presents the methodology used to estimate age- and stage-specific Catalan breast cancer survival functions from scarce Catalan survival data by adapting the age- and stage-specific US functions. Methods: Cubic splines were used to smooth data and obtain continuous hazard rate functions. After, we fitted a Poisson model to derive hazard ratios. The model included time as a covariate. Then the hazard ratios were applied to US survival functions detailed by age and stage to obtain Catalan estimations. Results: We started estimating the hazard ratios for Catalonia versus the USA before and after the introduction of screening. The hazard ratios were then multiplied by the age- and stage-specific breast cancer hazard rates from the USA to obtain the Catalan hazard rates. We also compared breast cancer survival in Catalonia and the USA in two time periods, before cancer control interventions (USA 1975–79, Catalonia 1980–89) and after (USA and Catalonia 1990–2001). Survival in Catalonia in the 1980–89 period was worse than in the USA during 1975–79, but the differences disappeared in 1990–2001. Conclusion: Our results suggest that access to better treatments and quality of care contributed to large improvements in survival in Catalonia. On the other hand, we obtained detailed breast cancer survival functions that will be used for modeling the effect of screening and adjuvant treatments in Catalonia

Creating a customer profitability accounting model

Customer profitability accounting is a well-researched topic in the academic field, and it has been proved to posses rather undisputable benefits. However, the calculation of the customer profitabilities can be challenging, therefore the usage of the accounting is not self-explanatory in organizations. The aim of this study was to create a customer profitability accounting model for a wholesales unit in the case company to function as a sales management tool. The literature review of the study presents certain fundamental issues related to customer profitability accounting, in addition a theoretical framework for accounting model design is provided. The creation of the model was commenced by setting the requirements for it and examining the foundation of the model design, which consisted of for instance price setting and cost structure of products. This was followed by selecting approaches to the creation of the model. The result of the study was an accounting model, for which a determination of included revenues and costs was executed, along with the formulation of an allocation criteria of the costs. Lastly, the customer profitabilities were calculated in accordance with the accounting principles and the calculation logic of the model. The attained figures proved the model to provide an appropriate solution for obtaining the customer profitabilities and thus to use the accounting information as a sales management tool in for instance decision making and negotiation situations.

Cost estimation framework for modular product

Cost estimation is an important, but challenging process when designing a new product or a feature of it, verifying the product prices given by suppliers or planning a cost saving actions of existing products. It is even more challenging when the product is highly modular, not a bulk product. In general, cost estimation techniques can be divided into two main groups - qualitative and quantitative techniques - which can further be classified into more detailed methods. Generally, qualitative techniques are preferable when comparing alternatives and quantitative techniques when cost relationships can be found. The main objective of this thesis was to develop a method on how to estimate costs of internally manufactured and commercial elevator landing doors. Because of the challenging product structure, the proposed cost estimation framework is developed under three different levels based on past cost information available. The framework consists of features from both qualitative and quantitative cost estimation techniques. The starting point for the whole cost estimation process is an unambiguous, hierarchical product structure so that the product can be classified into controllable parts and is then easier to handle. Those controllable parts can then be compared to existing past cost knowledge of similar parts and create as accurate cost estimates as possible by that way.