On SETAR non-linearity and forecasting

We compare linear autoregressive (AR) models and self-exciting threshold autoregressive (SETAR) models in terms of their point forecast performance, and their ability to characterize the uncertainty surrounding those forecasts, i.e. interval or density forecasts. A two-regime SETAR process is used as the data-generating process in an extensive set of Monte Carlo simulations, and we consider the discriminatory power of recently developed methods of forecast evaluation for different degrees of non-linearity. We find that the interval and density evaluation methods are unlikely to show the linear model to be deficient on samples of the size typical for macroeconomic data

Gender and the evaluation of research

This study examines if and how gender relates to research evaluation via panel assessment and journal ratings lists. Using data from UK business schools we find no evidence that the proportion of women in a submission for panel assessment affected the score received by the submitting institution. However, we do find that women on average receive lower scores according to some journal ratings lists. There are important differences in the rated quality of journals that men and women publish in across the sub-disciplines with men publishing significantly more research in the highest rated accountancy, information management and strategy journals. In addition, women who are able to utilise networks to co-author with individuals outside their institution are able to publish in higher-rated journals, although the same is not true for men; women who are attributed with “individual staff circumstances” (e.g. maternity leave or part-time working) have lower scores according to journal ratings lists.

Acoustic scattering : high frequency boundary element methods and unified transform methods

We describe some recent advances in the numerical solution of acoustic scattering problems. A major focus of the paper is the efficient solution of high frequency scattering problems via hybrid numerical-asymptotic boundary element methods. We also make connections to the unified transform method due to A. S. Fokas and co-authors, analysing particular instances of this method, proposed by J. A. De-Santo and co-authors, for problems of acoustic scattering by diffraction gratings.

Sensory and consumer science methods used with older adults: a review of current methods and recommendations for the future

Capturing the sensory perception and preferences of older adults, whether healthy or with particular disease states, poses major methodological challenges for the sensory community. Currently a vastly under researched area, it is at the same time a vital area of research as alterations in sensory perception can affect daily dietary food choices, intake, health and wellbeing. Tailored sensory methods are needed that take into account the challenges of working with such populations including poor access leading to low patient numbers (study power), cognitive abilities, use of medications, clinical treatments and context (hospitals and care homes). The objective of this paper was to review current analytical and affective sensory methodologies used with different cohorts of healthy and frail older adults, with focus on food preference and liking. We particularly drew attention to studies concerning general ageing as well as to those considering age-related diseases that have an emphasis on malnutrition and weight loss. Pubmed and Web of Science databases were searched to 2014 for relevant articles in English. From this search 75 papers concerning sensory acuity, 41 regarding perceived intensity and 73 relating to hedonic measures were reviewed. Simpler testing methods, such as directional forced choice tests and paired preference tests need to be further explored to determine whether they lead to more reliable results and better inter-cohort comparisons. Finally, sensory quality and related quality of life for older adults suffering from dementia must be included and not ignored in our future actions.

Decadal predictions with the HiGEM high resolution global coupled climate model: description and basic evaluation

This paper describes the development and basic evaluation of decadal predictions produced using the HiGEM coupled climate model. HiGEM is a higher resolution version of the HadGEM1 Met Office Unified Model. The horizontal resolution in HiGEM has been increased to 1.25◦ × 0.83◦ in longitude and latitude for the atmosphere, and 1/3◦ × 1/3◦ globally for the ocean. The HiGEM decadal predictions are initialised using an anomaly assimilation scheme that relaxes anomalies of ocean temperature and salinity to observed anomalies. 10 year hindcasts are produced for 10 start dates (1960, 1965,..., 2000, 2005). To determine the relative contributions to prediction skill from initial conditions and external forcing, the HiGEM decadal predictions are compared to uninitialised HiGEM transient experiments. The HiGEM decadal predictions have substantial skill for predictions of annual mean surface air temperature and 100 m upper ocean temperature. For lead times up to 10 years, anomaly correlations (ACC) over large areas of the North Atlantic Ocean, the Western Pacific Ocean and the Indian Ocean exceed values of 0.6. Initialisation of the HiGEM decadal predictions significantly increases skill over regions of the Atlantic Ocean,the Maritime Continent and regions of the subtropical North and South Pacific Ocean. In particular, HiGEM produces skillful predictions of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre for up to 4 years lead time (with ACC > 0.7), which are significantly larger than the uninitialised HiGEM transient experiments.

In vitro and clinical evaluation of specific dentifrices for complete denture hygiene

To study the physical properties of two experimental dentifrices for complete denture hygiene, their effect on denture biofilm removal and antimicrobial properties by means of a clinical trial. The experimental dentifrices comprised two compositions. One was based on the addition of 1% chloramine T (D1) and the other on the presence of 0.01% fluorosurfactant (D2). Measurements of density, pH, consistency, rheological features and abrasiveness were conducted. Sixty complete denture wearers were randomly assigned to three groups and were instructed to brush their dentures with a specific toothbrush: (1) Water (control); (2) D1; or (3) D2. Each method was used for 21 days. Denture biofilm was disclosed by a 1% neutral red solution and quantified by means of digital photos taken from the internal surface. Microbiological assessment was conducted to quantify Candida sp. and mutans streptococci. Data were evaluated by one-way anova and Tukey HSD, or Kruskal-Wallis (alpha = 0.05). Both dentifrices decreased biofilm coverage when compared with the control group. D1 was the most efficacious treatment to reduce mutans streptococci, whereas D2 showed an intermediate outcome (anova, p < 0.040). No treatment influenced Candida albicans or non-albicans species (Kruskal-Wallis, p = 0.163 and 0.746, respectively). It can be concluded that brushing complete dentures with the experimental dentifrices tested could be effective for the removal of denture biofilm.

Functional and morphologic evaluation of kidney proximal tubuli and correlation with renal allograft prognosis

P>Renal transplant patients with stable graft function and proximal tubular dysfunction (PTD) have an increased risk for chronic allograft nephropathy (CAN). In this study, we investigated the histologic pattern associated with PTD and its correlation with graft outcome. Forty-nine transplant patients with stable graft function were submitted to a biopsy. Simultaneously, urinary retinol-binding protein (uRBP) was measured and creatinine clearance was also determined. Banff`s score and semi-quantitative histologic analyses were performed to assess tubulointerstitial alterations. Patients were followed for 24.0 +/- 7.8 months. At biopsy time, mean serum creatinine was 1.43 +/- 0.33 mg/dl. Twelve patients (24.5%) had uRBP >= 1 mg/l, indicating PTD and 67% of biopsies had some degree of tubulointerstitial injury. At the end of the study period, 18 (36.7%) patients had lost renal function. uRBP levels were not associated with morphologic findings of interstitial fibrosis and tubular atrophy (IF/TA), interstitial fibrosis measured by Sirius red or tubulointerstitial damage. However, in multivariate analysis, the only variable associated with the loss of renal function was uRBP level >= 1 mg/l, determining a risk of 5.290 of loss of renal function (P = 0.003). Renal transplant patients who present PTD have functional alteration, which is not associated with morphologic alteration. This functional alteration is associated to progressive decrease in renal function.

OntoMap: an ontology-based architecture to perform the semantic mapping between an interlingua and software components

This paper is about the use of natural language to communicate with computers. Most researches that have pursued this goal consider only requests expressed in English. A way to facilitate the use of several languages in natural language systems is by using an interlingua. An interlingua is an intermediary representation for natural language information that can be processed by machines. We propose to convert natural language requests into an interlingua [universal networking language (UNL)] and to execute these requests using software components. In order to achieve this goal, we propose OntoMap, an ontology-based architecture to perform the semantic mapping between UNL sentences and software components. OntoMap also performs component search and retrieval based on semantic information formalized in ontologies and rules.

Synthesis, characterization and catalytic evaluation of cubic ordered mesoporous iron-silicon oxides

Iron was successfully incorporated in FDU-1 type cubic ordered mesoporous silica by a simple direct synthesis route. The (Fe/FDU-1) samples were characterized by Rutherford back-scattering spectrometry (RBS), small angle X-ray scattering (SAXS). N(2) sorption isotherm, X-ray diffraction (XRD) and X-ray absorption spectroscopy (XAS). The resulting material presented an iron content of about 5%. Prepared at the usual acid pH of -0.3, the composite was mostly formed by amorphous silica and hematite with a quantity of Fe(2+) present in the structure. The samples prepared with adjusted pH values (2 and 3.5) were amorphous. The samples` average pore diameter was around 12.0 nm and BET specific surface area was of 680 m(2) g(-1). Although the iron-incorporated material presented larger lattice parameter, about 25 nm compared to pure FDU-1, the Fe/FDU-1 composite still maintained its cubic ordered fcc mesoporous structure before and after the template removal at 540 degrees C. The catalytic performance of Fe/FDU-1 was investigated in the catalytic oxidation of Black Remazol B dye using a catalytic ozonation process. The results indicated that Fe/FDU-1 prepared at the usual acid pH exhibited high catalytic activity in the mineralization of this pollutant when compared to the pure FDU-1. Fe(2)O(3) and Fe/FDU-1 prepared with higher pH of 2 and 3.5. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

MODELING THE EVOLUTION OF COMPLEX NETWORKS THROUGH THE PATH-STAR TRANSFORMATION AND OPTIMAL MULTIVARIATE METHODS

The topology of real-world complex networks, such as in transportation and communication, is always changing with time. Such changes can arise not only as a natural consequence of their growth, but also due to major modi. cations in their intrinsic organization. For instance, the network of transportation routes between cities and towns ( hence locations) of a given country undergo a major change with the progressive implementation of commercial air transportation. While the locations could be originally interconnected through highways ( paths, giving rise to geographical networks), transportation between those sites progressively shifted or was complemented by air transportation, with scale free characteristics. In the present work we introduce the path-star transformation ( in its uniform and preferential versions) as a means to model such network transformations where paths give rise to stars of connectivity. It is also shown, through optimal multivariate statistical methods (i.e. canonical projections and maximum likelihood classification) that while the US highways network adheres closely to a geographical network model, its path-star transformation yields a network whose topological properties closely resembles those of the respective airport transportation network.

Influence of different light sources and photo-activation methods on degree of conversion and polymerization shrinkage of a nanocomposite resin

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the influence of different light sources and photo-activation methods on degree of conversion (DC%) and polymerization shrinkage (PS) of a nanocomposite resin (Filtek (TM) Supreme XT, 3M/ESPE). Two light-curing units (LCUs), one halogen-lamp (QTH) and one light-emitting-diode (LED), and two different photo-activation methods (continuous and gradual) were investigated in this study. The specimens were divided in four groups: group 1-power density (PD) of 570 mW/cm(2) for 20 s (QTH); group 2-PD 0 at 570 mW/cm(2) for 10 s + 10 s at 570 mW/cm(2) (QTH); group 3-PD 860 mW/cm(2) for 20 s (LED), and group 4-PD 125 mW/cm(2) for 10 s + 10 s at 860 mW/cm(2) (LED). A testing machine EMIC with rectangular steel bases (6 x 1 x 2 mm) was used to record the polymerization shrinkage forces (MPa) for a period that started with the photo-activation and ended after two minutes of measurement. For each group, ten repetitions (n = 40) were performed. For DC% measurements, five specimens (n = 20) for each group were made in a metallic mold (2 mm thickness and 4 mm diameter, ISO 4049) and them pulverized, pressed with bromide potassium (KBr) and analyzed with FT-IR spectroscopy. The data of PS were analyzed by Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) with Welch`s correction and Tamhane`s test. The PS means (MPa) were: 0.60 (G1); 0.47 (G2); 0.52 (G3) and 0.45 (G4), showing significant differences between two photo-activation methods, regardless of the light source used. The continuous method provided the highest values for PS. The data of DC% were analyzed by Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) and shows significant differences for QTH LCUs, regardless of the photo-activation method used. The QTH provided the lowest values for DC%. The gradual method provides lower polymerization contraction, either with halogen lamp or LED. Degree of conversion (%) for continuous or gradual photo-activation method was influenced by the LCUs. Thus, the presented results suggest that gradual method photo-activation with LED LCU would suffice to ensure adequate degree of conversion and minimum polymerization shrinkage.

Er:YAl(3)(BO(3))(4) glassy thin films from polymeric precursor and sol-gel methods: Waveguides for integrated optics

This paper presents the characterization of single-mode waveguides for 980 and 1550 nm wavelengths. High quality planar waveguide structure was fabricated from Y(1-x)Er(x)Al(3)(BO(3))(4) multilayer thin films with x = 0.02, 0.05, 0.1, 0.3, and 0.5, prepared through the polymeric precursor and sol-gel methods using spin-coating. The propagation losses of the planar waveguides varying from 0.63 to 0.88 dB/cm were measured at 632.8 and 1550 nm. The photoluminescence spectra and radiative lifetimes of the Er(3+) (4)I(13/2) energy level were measured in waveguiding geometry. For most samples the photoluminescence decay was single exponential with lifetimes in between 640 mu s and 200 mu s, depending on the erbium concentration and synthesis method. These results indicate that Er doped YAl(3)(BO(3))(4) compounds are promising for low loss waveguides. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All fights reserved.

Study of absorption spectrum and dynamics evaluation of the indocyanine-green first singlet excited state

Excited state absorption and excited state dynamics of indocyanine-green (ICG) dissolved in dymethyl sulfoxide were measured using white-light continuum Z-scan (WLCZScan) and white-light continuum pump-probe (WLCPP) techniques. The excited state absorption spectrum, obtained through Z-scan measurements, revealed saturable absorption (SA) for wavelengths longer than 630 nm, while reverse saturable absorption (RSA) appeared, as indicated by a band at approximately 570 nm. Both processes were modeled by a three-energy-level diagram, from which the excited state cross-section values were determined. SA and RSA were also observed in pump-probe experiments, with a recovery time in the hundreds of picoseconds time scale due to the long lifetime of the first excited state of ICG. Such results contribute to the understanding of ICG optical properties, allowing application in photonics and medicine. Copyright (C) 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.