Statistics critical in securing our food supply

“World food security … is at its lowest in half a century,” wrote Julian Cribb FTSE, a wellknown consultant in science communication and founding editor of www.sciencealert. com.au in the lead article in the 2008 ATSE Focus magazine issue entitled “Food for the world: the nation’s challenge”. Food security continues to be a key national and international concern and it is pleasing to see this issue of Focus again exploring aspects of the topic with the aim of continuing to raise awareness of issues and influencing relevant policy decisions. Statistics (or statistical science, more broadly) has been critical to the information and decision-making value chain needed to optimise agriculture and the food supply chain. The key steps are most often addressed by multidisciplinary research groups including statisticians in collaboration with life and physical scientists, agri-industry personnel and other relevant stakeholders.

Suicide, statistics and the coroner: A comparative study of death investigations

Australia has a significantly higher suicide rate than England. Rather than accepting that this ‘statistical fact’ is a direct reflection of some positivist truth, this paper begins with the premise that how suicide is counted depends upon what counts as suicide. This study involves semi-structured interviews with coroners both in Australia and England, as well as observations at inquests. Important differences between the two coronial systems include: first, quite different logics of operation; second, the burden of proof for reaching a finding of suicide is significantly higher in England; and third, the presence of family members at English inquests results in far greater pressure being brought to bear upon coroners. These combined factors result in a reduced likelihood of English coroners reaching a finding of suicide. The conclusions are twofold. First, this research supports existing criticisms of comparative suicide statistics. Second, this research adds theoretical weight to criticisms of positivist analyses of social phenomena.

Higher order spectra based support vector machine for arrhythmia classification

Heart rate variability (HRV) refers to the regulation of the sinoatrial node, the natural pacemaker of the heart by the sympathetic and parasympathetic branches of the autonomic nervous system. HRV analysis is an important tool to observe the heart’s ability to respond to normal regulatory impulses that affect its rhythm. Like many bio-signals, HRV signals are non-linear in nature. Higher order spectral analysis (HOS) is known to be a good tool for the analysis of non-linear systems and provides good noise immunity. A computer-based arrhythmia detection system of cardiac states is very useful in diagnostics and disease management. In this work, we studied the identification of the HRV signals using features derived from HOS. These features were fed to the support vector machine (SVM) for classification. Our proposed system can classify the normal and other four classes of arrhythmia with an average accuracy of more than 85%.

Phenotyping cotton ovule fibre initiation with spatial statistics

Yield in cultivated cotton (Gossypium spp.) is affected by the number and distribution of fibres initiated on the seed surface but, apart from simple statistical summaries, little has been done to assess this phenotype quantitatively. Here we use two types of spatial statistics to describe and quantify differences in patterning of cotton ovule fibre initials (FI). The following five different species of Gossypium were analysed: G. hirsutum L., G. barbadense L., G. arboreum, G. raimondii Ulbrich. and G. trilobum (DC.) Skovsted. Scanning electron micrographs of FIs were taken on the day of anthesis. Cell centres for fibre and epidermal cells were digitised and analysed by spatial statistics methods appropriate for marked point processes and tessellations. Results were consistent with previously published reports of fibre number and spacing. However, it was shown that the spatial distributions of FIs in all of species examined exhibit regularity, and are not completely random as previously implied. The regular arrangement indicates FIs do not appear independently of each other and we surmise there may be some form of mutual inhibition specifying fibre-initial development. It is concluded that genetic control of FIs differs from that of stomata, another well studied plant idioblast. Since spatial statistics show clear species differences in the distribution of FIs within this genus, they provide a useful method for phenotyping cotton. © CSIRO 2007.

Statistics at play

Three core components in developing children’s understanding and appreciation of data — establish a context, pose and answer statistical questions, represent and interpret data — lay the foundation for the fourth component: use data to enhance existing context.

Psychological determinants of motorcycle helmet use among young adults in Cambodia

Cambodian accident statistics show that motivating motorcyclists to make proper use of a safety helmet is a top priority for road safety policy makers. Yet, currently there is no insight whatsoever in the psychological precursors of helmet use in Cambodia. As such, it remains unclear which variables to target by interventions aimed at promoting the use of safety helmets. Therefore, this study adopted a socio-cognitive perspective towards the examination of helmet use in a sample of Cambodian young adults (N = 344). Two theoretical models, i.e., Health Belief Model and Theory of Planned Behaviour were combined and further complemented with two norm-related variables, i.e., descriptive- and personal norm. Based on the results, two important conclusions can be drawn. Firstly, the sample investigated in this study is clearly favourably disposed towards the use of helmets while riding. Secondly, in decreasing order, helmet use behaviour was found to be determined by the following five key-determinants: perceived behavioural control over a specific set of inhibiting situational factors (i.e., mostly when driving short distances, at night, or when dressed up to go out), perceived behavioural control in general, perceived susceptibility, personal norm, and behavioural intentions. Policy makers are recommended to reevaluate their current behavioural change methods for young adults being favourably disposed towards the use of safety helmets. Rather than focussing on motivation-oriented methods, there is a need for strategies that (1) stimulate the translation of good intentions into the desirable behaviour and (2) encourage young adults not to relapse in case they are exposed to risk facilitating circumstances. These implications will be discussed more in detail.

Compensation for higher order mode coupling between inclined coupling slots and radiating slots in planar slotted waveguide arrays

Summary form only given. Geometric simplicity, efficiency and polarization purity make slot antenna arrays ideal solutions for many radar, communications and navigation applications, especially when high power, light weight and limited scan volume are priorities. Resonant arrays of longitudinal slots have a slot spacing of one-half guide wavelength at the design frequency, so that the slots are located at the standing wave peaks. Planar arrays are implemented using a number of rectangular waveguides (branch line guides), arranged side-by-side, while waveguides main lines located behind and at right angles to the branch lines excite the radiating waveguides via centered-inclined coupling slots. Planar slotted waveguide arrays radiate broadside beams and all radiators are designed to be in phase.

Straightforward biodegradable nanoparticle generation through megahertz-order ultrasonic atomization

Simple and reliable formation of biodegradable nanoparticles formed from poly-ε-caprolactone was achieved using 1.645 MHz piston atomization of a source fluid of 0.5% w/v of the polymer dissolved in acetone; the particles were allowed to descend under gravity in air 8 cm into a 1 mM solution of sodium dodecyl sulfate. After centrifugation to remove surface agglomerations, a symmetric monodisperse distribution of particles φ 186 nm (SD=5.7, n=6) was obtained with a yield of 65.2%. © 2006 American Institute of Physics.

A Fixed Order Model Matching Approach for the Design of Robust Power System Oscillation Damper

This book focuses on how evolutionary computing techniques benefit engineering research and development tasks by converting practical problems of growing complexities into simple formulations, thus largely reducing development efforts. This book begins with an overview of the optimization theory and modern evolutionary computing techniques, and goes on to cover specific applications of evolutionary computing to power system optimization and control problems.

Inferring phylogenies of evolving sequences without multiple sequence alignment

Alignment-free methods, in which shared properties of sub-sequences (e.g. identity or match length) are extracted and used to compute a distance matrix, have recently been explored for phylogenetic inference. However, the scalability and robustness of these methods to key evolutionary processes remain to be investigated. Here, using simulated sequence sets of various sizes in both nucleotides and amino acids, we systematically assess the accuracy of phylogenetic inference using an alignment-free approach, based on D2 statistics, under different evolutionary scenarios. We find that compared to a multiple sequence alignment approach, D2 methods are more robust against among-site rate heterogeneity, compositional biases, genetic rearrangements and insertions/deletions, but are more sensitive to recent sequence divergence and sequence truncation. Across diverse empirical datasets, the alignment-free methods perform well for sequences sharing low divergence, at greater computation speed. Our findings provide strong evidence for the scalability and the potential use of alignment-free methods in large-scale phylogenomics.

Second-order quantile methods for experts and combinatorial games

We aim to design strategies for sequential decision making that adjust to the difficulty of the learning problem. We study this question both in the setting of prediction with expert advice, and for more general combinatorial decision tasks. We are not satisfied with just guaranteeing minimax regret rates, but we want our algorithms to perform significantly better on easy data. Two popular ways to formalize such adaptivity are second-order regret bounds and quantile bounds. The underlying notions of 'easy data', which may be paraphrased as "the learning problem has small variance" and "multiple decisions are useful", are synergetic. But even though there are sophisticated algorithms that exploit one of the two, no existing algorithm is able to adapt to both. In this paper we outline a new method for obtaining such adaptive algorithms, based on a potential function that aggregates a range of learning rates (which are essential tuning parameters). By choosing the right prior we construct efficient algorithms and show that they reap both benefits by proving the first bounds that are both second-order and incorporate quantiles.

Summarising and reporting sugarcane locomotive run statistics from TOTools and GPS data

The majority of sugar mill locomotives are equipped with GPS devices from which locomotive position data is stored. Locomotive run information (e.g. start times, run destinations and activities) is electronically stored in software called TOTools. The latest software development allows TOTools to interpret historical GPS information by combining this data with run information recorded in TOTools and geographic information from a GIS application called MapInfo. As a result, TOTools is capable of summarising run activity details such as run start and finish times and shunt activities with great accuracy. This paper presents 15 reports developed to summarise run activities and speed information. The reports will be of use pre-season to assist in developing the next year's schedule and for determining priorities for investment in the track infrastructure. They will also be of benefit during the season to closely monitor locomotive run performance against the existing schedule.

Numerical algorithms for time-fractional subdiffusion equation with second-order accuracy

This article aims to fill in the gap of the second-order accurate schemes for the time-fractional subdiffusion equation with unconditional stability. Two fully discrete schemes are first proposed for the time-fractional subdiffusion equation with space discretized by finite element and time discretized by the fractional linear multistep methods. These two methods are unconditionally stable with maximum global convergence order of $O(\tau+h^{r+1})$ in the $L^2$ norm, where $\tau$ and $h$ are the step sizes in time and space, respectively, and $r$ is the degree of the piecewise polynomial space. The average convergence rates for the two methods in time are also investigated, which shows that the average convergence rates of the two methods are $O(\tau^{1.5}+h^{r+1})$. Furthermore, two improved algorithms are constrcted, they are also unconditionally stable and convergent of order $O(\tau^2+h^{r+1})$. Numerical examples are provided to verify the theoretical analysis. The comparisons between the present algorithms and the existing ones are included, which show that our numerical algorithms exhibit better performances than the known ones.