826 resultados para longitudinal Poisson data


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The Data Quality Campaign (DQC) has been focused since 2005 on advocating for states to build robust state longitudinal data systems (SLDS). While states have made great progress in their data infrastructure, and should continue to emphasize this work, t data systems alone will not improve outcomes. It is time for both DQC and states to focus on building capacity to use the information that these systems are producing at every level – from classrooms to state houses. To impact system performance and student achievement, the ingrained culture must be replaced with one that focuses on data use for continuous improvement. The effective use of data to inform decisions, provide transparency, improve the measurement of outcomes, and fuel continuous improvement will not come to fruition unless there is a system wide focus on building capacity around the collection, analysis, dissemination, and use of this data, including through research.

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Direct optical modulation at 2.5 Gb/s with amplitude of more than 0.5 W has been demonstrated in single longitudinal mode distributed Bragg reflector tapered lasers emitting at 1060 nm with separated injection of the ridge waveguide and tapered sections. The modulating signal of ~110 mA peak to peak was applied to the ridge waveguide section, yielding a high modulation efficiency of ~5 W/A. The large-signal frequency response of the experimental set-up was limited by the bandwidth of the electrical amplifier rather than by the internal dynamics of the laser, indicating that higher bit rates could be achieved with improved driving electronics.

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En este estudio se ha realizado el diseño de un receptor de una central de Torre Central de energía solar para generación directa de vapor, mediante el uso de métodos numéricos, con un perfil de potencia incidente variable longitudinal y transversalmente. Para ello se ha dividido la geometría del receptor según el método de diferencias finitas, y se ha procedido a resolver las ecuaciones del balance de energía. Una vez resuelto el sistema de ecuaciones se dispone de la distribución de temperaturas en el receptor y se puede proceder a analizar los resultados así como a calcular otros datos de interés. ABSTRACT In this study it has been made a Central Receiver Solar Thermal Power Plant’s Receiver design for direct steam production, by using numerical methods, with a variable longitudinally and transversely income solar power profile. With this propose, the receiver’s geometry has been divided using the finite difference method, and the energy balance equations have been solved. Once the equations system has been solved, the receiver´s temperature distribution is known, and you can analyze the results as well as calculate other interesting data.

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In this study we apply count data models to four integer–valued time series related to accidentality in Spanish roads applying both the frequentist and Bayesian approaches. The time series are: number of fatalities, number of fatal accidents, number of killed or seriously injured (KSI) and number of accidents with KSI. The model structure is Poisson regression with first order autoregressive errors. The purpose of the paper is first to sort out the explanatory variables by relevance and second to carry out a prediction exercise for validation.

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Las compañías de desarrollo de software buscan reducir costes a través del desarrollo de diseños que permitan: a) facilidad en la distribución del trabajo de desarrollo, con la menor comunicación de las partes; b) modificabilidad, permitiendo realizar cambios sobre un módulo sin alterar las otras partes y; c) comprensibilidad, permitiendo estudiar un módulo del sistema a la vez. Estas características elementales en el diseño de software se logran a través del diseño de sistemas cuasi-descomponibles, cuyo modelo teórico fue introducido por Simon en su búsqueda de una teoría general de los sistemas. En el campo del diseño de software, Parnas propone un camino práctico para lograr sistemas cuasi-descomponibles llamado el Principio de Ocultación de Información. El Principio de Ocultación de Información es un criterio diferente de descomposición en módulos, cuya implementación logra las características deseables de un diseño eficiente a nivel del proceso de desarrollo y mantenimiento. El Principio y el enfoque orientado a objetos se relacionan debido a que el enfoque orientado a objetos facilita la implementación del Principio, es por esto que cuando los objetos empiezan a tomar fuerza, también aparecen paralelamente las dificultades en el aprendizaje de diseño de software orientado a objetos, las cuales se mantienen hasta la actualidad, tal como se reporta en la literatura. Las dificultades en el aprendizaje de diseño de software orientado a objetos tiene un gran impacto tanto en las aulas como en la profesión. La detección de estas dificultades permitirá a los docentes corregirlas o encaminarlas antes que éstas se trasladen a la industria. Por otro lado, la industria puede estar advertida de los potenciales problemas en el proceso de desarrollo de software. Esta tesis tiene como objetivo investigar sobre las dificultades en el diseño de software orientado a objetos, a través de un estudio empírico. El estudio fue realizado a través de un estudio de caso cualitativo, que estuvo conformado por tres partes. La primera, un estudio inicial que tuvo como objetivo conocer el entendimiento de los estudiantes alrededor del Principio de Ocultación de Información antes de que iniciasen la instrucción. La segunda parte, un estudio llevado a cabo a lo largo del período de instrucción con la finalidad de obtener las dificultades de diseño de software y su nivel de persistencia. Finalmente, una tercera parte, cuya finalidad fue el estudio de las dificultades esenciales de aprendizaje y sus posibles orígenes. Los participantes de este estudio pertenecieron a la materia de Software Design del European Master in Software Engineering de la Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingenieros Informáticos de la Universidad Politécnica de Madrid. Los datos cualitativos usados para el análisis procedieron de las observaciones en las horas de clase y exposiciones, entrevistas realizadas a los estudiantes y ejercicios enviados a lo largo del período de instrucción. Las dificultades presentadas en esta tesis en sus diferentes perspectivas, aportaron conocimiento concreto de un estudio de caso en particular, realizando contribuciones relevantes en el área de diseño de software, docencia, industria y a nivel metodológico. ABSTRACT The software development companies look to reduce costs through the development of designs that will: a) ease the distribution of development work with the least communication between the parties; b) changeability, allowing to change a module without disturbing the other parties and; c) understandability, allowing to study a system module at a time. These basic software design features are achieved through the design of quasidecomposable systems, whose theoretical model was introduced by Simon in his search for a general theory of systems. In the field of software design, Parnas offers a practical way to achieve quasi-decomposable systems, called The Information Hiding Principle. The Information Hiding Principle is different criterion for decomposition into modules, whose implementation achieves the desirable characteristics of an efficient design at the development and maintenance level. The Principle and the object-oriented approach are related because the object-oriented approach facilitates the implementation of The Principle, which is why when objects begin to take hold, also appear alongside the difficulties in learning an object-oriented software design, which remain to this day, as reported in the literature. Difficulties in learning object-oriented software design has a great impact both in the classroom and in the profession. The detection of these difficulties will allow teachers to correct or route them before they move to the industry. On the other hand, the industry can be warned of potential problems related to the software development process. This thesis aims to investigate the difficulties in learning the object-oriented design, through an empirical study. The study was conducted through a qualitative case study, which consisted of three parts. The first, an initial study was aimed to understand the knowledge of the students around The Information Hiding Principle before they start the instruction. The second part, a study was conducted during the entire period of instruction in order to obtain the difficulties of software design and their level of persistence. Finally, a third party, whose purpose was to study the essential difficulties of learning and their possible sources. Participants in this study belonged to the field of Software Design of the European Master in Software Engineering at the Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingenieros Informáticos of Universidad Politécnica de Madrid. The qualitative data used for the analysis came from the observations in class time and exhibitions, performed interviews with students and exercises sent over the period of instruction. The difficulties presented in this thesis, in their different perspectives, provided concrete knowledge of a particular case study, making significant contributions in the area of software design, teaching, industry and methodological level.

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Acknowledgements We are grateful to THERAmetrics for the study management, data collection and analysis. The authors would like to thank the following investigators for their contribution (>30 patients enrolled): F. Fohler, A.G. Haider, J. Hesse-Tonsa, J. Messner, W. Pohl (Austria); G. Joos, J.L. Halloy, R. Peche, H. Simonis, P. Van den Brande (Belgium); B. Bugnas, J.M. Chavaillon, P. Debove, S. Dury, L. Mathieu, O. Lagrange, A. Prudhomme, S. Verdier (France); A. Benedix, O. Kestermann, A. Deimling, G. Eckhardt, M. Gernhold, V. Grimm-Sachs, M. Hoefer, G. Hoheisel, C. Stolpe, C. Schilder, M. John, J. Uerscheln, K.H. Zeisler (Germany); A. Chaniotou, P. Demertzis, V. Filaditaki-Loverdou, A. Gaga, E. Georgatou-Papageorgiou, S. Michailidis, G. Pavkalou, M. Toumpis (Greece); K. Csicsari, K. Hajdu, M. Póczi, M. Kukuly, T. Kecskes, C. Hangonyi, J. Schlezak, E. Takács, M. Szabo,G. Szabó, C. Szabo (Hungary); G.W. Canonica, W. Castellani, A. Cirillo, M.P. Foschino Barbaro, M. Gjomarkaj, G. Guerra, G. Idotta, D. Legnani, M. Lo Schiavo, R. Maselli, F. Mazza, S. Nutini, P. Paggiaro, A. Pietra, O. Resta, S. Salis, N.A. Scichilone, M.C. Zappa, A. Zedda (Italy); M. Goosens, R. Heller, K. Mansour, C. Meek, J. van den Berg (The Netherlands); A. Antczak, M. Faber, D. Madra-Rogacka, G. Mincewicz, M. Michnar, D. Olejniczak, G. Pulka, Z. Sankowski, K. Kowal, I. Krupa-Borek, B. Kubicka Kozik, K. Kuczynska, P. Kuna, A. Kwasniewski, M. Wozniak (Poland); F. Casas Maldonado, C. Cisneros, J. de Miguel Díez, L.M. Entrenas Costa, B. Garcìa-Cosio, M.V. Gonzales, L. Lores, M. Luengo, C. Martinez, C. Melero, I. Mir, X. Munoz, A. Pacheco, V. Plaza, J. Serra, J. Serrano, J.G. Soto Campos (Spain); T. Bekci, R. Demir, N. Dursunoglu, D. Ediger, A. Ekici, O. Goksel, H. Gunen, I.K. Oguzulgen, Z.F. Ozseker, (Turkey); L. Barnes, T. Hall, S. Montgomerie, J. Purohit, J. Ryan (United Kingdom). The authors would also like to thank P. Galletti (THERAMetrics S.p.A., Sesto San Giovanni, Italy) and K. Stockmeyer (THERAMetrics GmbH, Essen, Germany) for providing editorial assistance in the preparation of this manuscript. Open Access This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated.

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A universidade é um local de aprendizagem no qual conhecimento acadêmico, social e cultural permeia a relação entre os estudantes, onde estes terão a oportunidade de vivenciar diferentes situações durante o curso. A maior preocupação é como esta experiência influenciará o estado nutricional com a possível mudança dos hábitos cotidianos, como abuso de bebidas alcoólicas, uso irrestrito de suplementos vitamínicos e alimentares e a alimentação inadequada. O consumo alimentar de universitários foi o foco desta pesquisa que teve como objetivo geral identificar as principais mudanças do consumo de alimentos/ bebidas e estilos de vida por meio de estudo de coorte, envolvendo estudantes ingressantes nos cursos de graduação da Escola Superior de Agricultura \"Luiz de Queiroz\" - ESALQ/USP, e como objetivos específicos desenvolver, validar e aplicar um instrumento com a finalidade de identificar medidas comportamentais relacionadas aos hábitos de consumo alimentar, atividade física, situação socioeconômica e relacionar as informações obtidas ao estado nutricional do estudante; descrever o consumo dentro e fora do domicílio. Participaram da pesquisa estudantes com idade entre 18 e 30 anos. Um questionário foi aplicado juntamente com a avaliação antropométrica para mensuração do peso, altura e classificação do estado nutricional por meio do Índice de Massa Corporal (IMC). Este protocolo foi repetido após 8 meses de curso para que fosse identificada a situação do estado nutricional de cada indivíduo relacionada às mudanças do comportamento alimentar. Os dados coletados foram armazenados em base de dados no Microsoft Excel, sendo analisados por meio do Statistical Analysis System. Os dados quantitativos foram expressos em média e desvio-padrão (DP) com cálculos de intervalos de confiança de 95%. O teste do qui-quadrado foi utilizado para comparar a distribuição da prevalência de sobrepeso e obesidade quanto à variável sexo, associando-se ao IMC. Foi utilizado o coeficiente de correlação intraclasse de Pearson para verificação de concordância entre peso e altura aferidos e referidos. Foi realizada análise de regressão múltipla para identificação da mudança de consumo entre as fases, assim como para peso corporal. Utilizou-se o nível de significância de 5%. Observaram-se entre as duas fases quantidades preocupantes de nutrientes ingeridos aquém ou além dos limites preconizados para ambos os sexos; destaque para o elevado consumo de sódio, e insatisfatório de carotenóides. No caso dos carotenóides, houve crescimento significativo da contribuição da categoria 3 para as alunas. O consumo de cafeína na segunda fase foi maior, predominando o fornecimento pelos alimentos ultraprocessados. De forma geral houve aumento do consumo de alimentos processados e ultraprocessados. Observou-se aumento (significativo a 5%) no consumo de lipídios. Constatou-se diminuição na prática de exercícios físicos e aumento na ingestão de bebidas alcoólicas, e destas com energéticos e no tabagismo. Concluiu-se que o ingresso na universidade contribui para a mudança nos hábitos alimentares e estilos de vida de maneira negativa, sendo necessária intervenção adequada visando a promoção da saúde dos estudantes.

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Background: Spain’s financial crisis has been characterized by an increase in unemployment. This increase could have produced an increase in deaths of women due to intimate partner-related femicides (IPF). This study aims to determine whether the increase in unemployment among both sexes in different regions in Spain is related to an increase in the rates of IPF during the current financial crisis period. Methods: An ecological longitudinal study was carried out in Spain’s 17 regions. Two study periods were defined: pre-crisis period (2005–2007) and crisis period (2008–2013). IPF rates adjusted by age and unemployment rates for men and women were calculated. We fitted multilevel linear regression models in which observations at level 1 were nested within regions according to a repeated measurements design. Results: Rates of unemployment have progressively increased in Spain, rising above 20 % from 2008 to 2013 in some regions. IPF rates decreased in some regions during crisis period with respect to pre-crisis period. The multilevel analysis does not support the existence of a significant relationship between the increase in unemployment in men and women and the decrease in IPF since 2008. Discussion: The increase in unemployment in men and women in Spain does not appear to have an effect on IPF. The results of the multilevel analysis discard the hypothesis that the increase in the rates of unemployment in women and men are related to an increase in IPF rates. Conclusions: The decline in IPF since 2008 might be interpreted as the result of exposure to other factors such as the lower frequency of divorces in recent years or the medium term effects of the integral protection measures of the law on gender violence that began in 2005.

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Background: Self-rated health is a subjective measure that has been related to indicators such as mortality, morbidity, functional capacity, and the use of health services. In Spain, there are few longitudinal studies associating self-rated health with hospital services use. The purpose of this study is to analyze the association between self-rated health and socioeconomic, demographic, and health variables, and the use of hospital services among the general population in the Region of Valencia, Spain. Methods: Longitudinal study of 5,275 adults who were included in the 2005 Region of Valencia Health Survey and linked to the Minimum Hospital Data Set between 2006 and 2009. Logistic regression models were used to calculate the odds ratios between use of hospital services and self-rated health, sex, age, educational level, employment status, income, country of birth, chronic conditions, disability and previous use of hospital services. Results: By the end of a 4-year follow-up period, 1,184 participants (22.4 %) had used hospital services. Use of hospital services was associated with poor self-rated health among both men and women. In men, it was also associated with unemployment, low income, and the presence of a chronic disease. In women, it was associated with low educational level, the presence of a disability, previous hospital services use, and the presence of chronic disease. Interactions were detected between self-rated health and chronic disease in men and between self-rated health and educational level in women. Conclusions: Self-rated health acts as a predictor of hospital services use. Various health and socioeconomic variables provide additional predictive capacity. Interactions were detected between self-rated health and other variables that may reflect different complex predictive models, by gender.

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Tese de doutoramento, Linguística (Linguística Educacional), Universidade de Lisboa, Faculdade de Letras, 2016

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BACKGROUND Previous neuroimaging studies indicate abnormalities in cortico-limbic circuitry in mood disorder. Here we employ prospective longitudinal voxel-based morphometry to examine the trajectory of these abnormalities during early stages of illness development. METHOD Unaffected individuals (16-25 years) at high and low familial risk of mood disorder underwent structural brain imaging on two occasions 2 years apart. Further clinical assessment was conducted 2 years after the second scan (time 3). Clinical outcome data at time 3 was used to categorize individuals: (i) healthy controls ('low risk', n = 48); (ii) high-risk individuals who remained well (HR well, n = 53); and (iii) high-risk individuals who developed a major depressive disorder (HR MDD, n = 30). Groups were compared using longitudinal voxel-based morphometry. We also examined whether progress to illness was associated with changes in other potential risk markers (personality traits, symptoms scores and baseline measures of childhood trauma), and whether any changes in brain structure could be indexed using these measures. RESULTS Significant decreases in right amygdala grey matter were found in HR MDD v. controls (p = 0.001) and v. HR well (p = 0.005). This structural change was not related to measures of childhood trauma, symptom severity or measures of sub-diagnostic anxiety, neuroticism or extraversion, although cross-sectionally these measures significantly differentiated the groups at baseline. CONCLUSIONS These longitudinal findings implicate structural amygdala changes in the neurobiology of mood disorder. They also provide a potential biomarker for risk stratification capturing additional information beyond clinically ascertained measures.