An investigation into inductive parameter learning in complex hierarchical knowledge structures representing clinical expertise

This dissertation investigates the very important and current problem of modelling human expertise. This is an apparent issue in any computer system emulating human decision making. It is prominent in Clinical Decision Support Systems (CDSS) due to the complexity of the induction process and the vast number of parameters in most cases. Other issues such as human error and missing or incomplete data present further challenges. In this thesis, the Galatean Risk Screening Tool (GRiST) is used as an example of modelling clinical expertise and parameter elicitation. The tool is a mental health clinical record management system with a top layer of decision support capabilities. It is currently being deployed by several NHS mental health trusts across the UK. The aim of the research is to investigate the problem of parameter elicitation by inducing them from real clinical data rather than from the human experts who provided the decision model. The induced parameters provide an insight into both the data relationships and how experts make decisions themselves. The outcomes help further understand human decision making and, in particular, help GRiST provide more accurate emulations of risk judgements. Although the algorithms and methods presented in this dissertation are applied to GRiST, they can be adopted for other human knowledge engineering domains.

Models, Techniques and Applications of e-Learning Personalization

In recent years Web has become mainstream medium for communication and information dissemination. This paper presents approaches and methods for adaptive learning implementation, which are used in some contemporary web-interfaced Learning Management Systems (LMSs). The problem is not how to create electronic learning materials, but how to locate and utilize the available information in personalized way. Different attitudes to personalization are briefly described in section 1. The real personalization requires a user profile containing information about preferences, aims, and educational history to be stored and used by the system. These issues are considered in section 2. A method for development and design of adaptive learning content in terms of learning strategy system support is represented in section 3. Section 4 includes a set of innovative personalization services that are suggested by several very important research projects (SeLeNe project, ELENA project, etc.) dated from the last few years. This section also describes a model for role- and competency-based learning customization that uses Web Services approach. The last part presents how personalization techniques are implemented in Learning Grid-driven applications.

Development of Database for Distributed Information Measurement and Control System

The purpose of this work is the development of database of the distributed information measurement and control system that implements methods of optical spectroscopy for plasma physics research and atomic collisions and provides remote access to information and hardware resources within the Intranet/Internet networks. The database is based on database management system Oracle9i. Client software was realized in Java language. The software was developed using Model View Controller architecture, which separates application data from graphical presentation components and input processing logic. The following graphical presentations were implemented: measurement of radiation spectra of beam and plasma objects, excitation function for non-elastic collisions of heavy particles and analysis of data acquired in preceding experiments. The graphical clients have the following functionality of the interaction with the database: browsing information on experiments of a certain type, searching for data with various criteria, and inserting the information about preceding experiments.

A decision support system for waste collection management and its potential improvement with Radio-Frequency Identification Technology (RFID)

Due to vigorous globalisation and product proliferation in recent years, more waste has been produced by the soaring manufacturing activities. This has contributed to the significant need for an efficient waste management system to ensure, with all efforts, the waste is properly treated for recycling or disposed. This paper presents a Decision Support System (DSS) framework, based on Constraint Logic Programming (CLP), for the collection management of industrial waste (of all kinds) and discusses the potential employment of Radio-Frequency Identification Technology (RFID) to improve several critical procedures involved in managing waste collection. This paper also demonstrates a widely distributed and semi-structured network of waste producing enterprises (e.g. manufacturers) and waste processing enterprises (i.e. waste recycling/treatment stations) improving their operations planning by means of using the proposed DSS. The potential RFID applications to update and validate information in a continuous manner to bring value-added benefits to the waste collection business are also presented. © 2012 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd.

Egységes kockázatkezelési módszertan kialakítása a villamosenergia-ipari átviteli rendszerirányító társaságnál (Development of an integrated risk management methodology for an electricity transmission system operator (TSO) company)

A felelős vállalatirányítás egyik stratégiai jelentőségű tényezője a vállalati szintű kockázatkezelés, mely napjaink egyik legnagyobb kihívást jelentő területe a vállalatvezetés számára. A hatékony vállalati kockázatkezelés nem valósulhat meg kizárólag az általános, nemzetközi és hazai szakirodalomban megfogalmazott kockázatkezelési alapelvek követése mentén, a kockázatkezelési rendszer kialakítása során figyelembe kell venni mind az iparági, mind az adott vállalatra jellemző sajátosságokat. Mindez különösen fontos egy olyan speciális tevékenységet folytató vállalatnál, mint a villamosenergia-ipari átviteli rendszerirányító társaság (transmission system operator, TSO). A cikkben a magyar villamosenergia-ipari átviteli rendszerirányító társasággal együttműködésben készített kutatás keretében előálló olyan komplex elméleti és gyakorlati keretrendszert mutatnak be a szerzők, mely alapján az átviteli rendszerirányító társaság számára kialakítottak egy új, területenként egységes kockázatkezelési módszertant (fókuszban a kockázatok azonosításának és számszerűsítésének módszertani lépéseivel), mely alkalmas a vállalati szintű kockázati kitettség meghatározására. _______ This study handles one of today’s most challenging areas of enterprise management: the development and introduction of an integrated and efficient risk management system. For companies operating in specific network industries with a dominant market share and a key role in the national economy, such as electricity TSO’s, risk management is of stressed importance. The study introduces an innovative, mathematically and statistically grounded as well as economically reasoned management approach for the identification, individual effect calculation and summation of risk factors. Every building block is customized for the organizational structure and operating environment of the TSO. While the identification phase guarantees all-inclusivity, the calculation phase incorporates expert techniques and Monte Carlo simulation and the summation phase presents an expected combined distribution and value effect of risks on the company’s profit lines based on the previously undiscovered correlations between individual risk factors.

Digital anthropology and educational eGames: learning through behavioural patterns in digital, game-based contexts

The selected publications are focused on the relations between users, eGames and the educational context, and how they interact together, so that both learning and user performance are improved through feedback provision. A key part of this analysis is the identification of behavioural, anthropological patterns, so that users can be clustered based on their actions, and the steps taken in the system (e.g. social network, online community, or virtual campus). In doing so, we can analyse large data sets of information made by a broad user sample,which will provide more accurate statistical reports and readings. Furthermore, this research is focused on how users can be clustered based on individual and group behaviour, so that a personalized support through feedback is provided, and the personal learning process is improved as well as the group interaction. We take inputs from every person and from the group they belong to, cluster the contributions, find behavioural patterns and provide personalized feedback to the individual and the group, based on personal and group findings. And we do all this in the context of educational games integrated in learning communities and learning management systems. To carry out this research we design a set of research questions along the 10-year published work presented in this thesis. We ask if the users can be clustered together based on the inputs provided by them and their groups; if and how these data are useful to improve the learner performance and the group interaction; if and how feedback becomes a useful tool for such pedagogical goal; if and how eGames become a powerful context to deploy the pedagogical methodology and the various research methods and activities that make use of that feedback to encourage learning and interaction; if and how a game design and a learning design must be defined and implemented to achieve these objectives, and to facilitate the productive authoring and integration of eGames in pedagogical contexts and frameworks. We conclude that educational games are a resourceful tool to provide a user experience towards a better personalized learning performance and an enhance group interaction along the way. To do so, eGames, while integrated in an educational context, must follow a specific set of user and technical requirements, so that the playful context supports the pedagogical model underneath. We also conclude that, while playing, users can be clustered based on their personal behaviour and interaction with others, thanks to the pattern identification. Based on this information, a set of recommendations are provided Digital Anthropology and educational eGames 6 /216 to the user and the group in the form of personalized feedback, timely managed for an optimum impact on learning performance and group interaction level. In this research, Digital Anthropology is introduced as a concept at a late stage to provide a backbone across various academic fields including: Social Science, Cognitive Science, Behavioural Science, Educational games and, of course, Technology-enhance learning. Although just recently described as an evolution of traditional anthropology, this approach to digital behaviour and social structure facilitates the understanding amongst fields and a comprehensive view towards a combined approach. This research takes forward the already existing work and published research onusers and eGames for learning, and turns the focus onto the next step — the clustering of users based on their behaviour and offering proper, personalized feedback to the user based on that clustering, rather than just on isolated inputs from every user. Indeed, this pattern recognition in the described context of eGames in educational contexts, and towards the presented aim of personalized counselling to the user and the group through feedback, is something that has not been accomplished before.

Review of virtual power plant applications for the power system management and V2G market development

Utilization of renewable energy sources and energy storage systems is increasing with fostering new policies on energy industries. However, the increase of distributed generation hinders the reliability of power systems. In order to stabilize them, a virtual power plant emerges as a novel power grid management system. The VPP has a role to make a participation of different distributed energy resources and energy storage systems. This paper defines core technology of the VPP which are demand response and ancillary service concerning about Korea, America and Europe cases. It also suggests application solutions of the VPP to V2G market for restructuring national power industries in Korea.

Qualidade, formação e ensino à distância: uma aplicação da NP 4512 numa unidade de E-learning

A implementação de sistemas de gestão da qualidade na área da educação e formação permite reforçar e consolidar as organizações que atuam num mercado cada vez mais competitivo, permitindo-lhes satisfazer, numa base permanente e sistemática, as expetativas dos clientes através do fornecimento de produtos de formação de melhor qualidade. Neste contexto, o objetivo deste estudo é explorar a temática dos sistemas de gestão da qualidade ao nível do setor de educação. Em específico pretende-se efetuar uma revisão de literatura sobre qualidade, formação e ensino à distância;analisar normas, projetos e iniciativas em matéria de ensino à distância e implementar um Sistema de Gestão da Formação, de acordo com a NP 4512, numa unidade de e-learning. A metodologia adotada foi investigação–ação e centrou-se no levantamento bibliográfico e na aplicação dos conceitos num contexto específico de um organização de ensino. Foi escolhida a unidade de e-learning do IPP (e-IPP) como contexto do estudo por ser uma unidade de ensino superior. Os principais resultados obtidos são: (1) maior conhecimento das normas projetos e iniciativas em matéria de ensino à distância a nível nacional e europeu; (2) análise detalhada da recente norma portuguesa NP 4512; (3) elaboração da documentação associada ao Sistema de Gestão da Formação (SGF) na unidade e-IPP, em específico, identificação e monitorização dos processos, descrição dos procedimentos obrigatórios e elaboração do manual do SGF. Como principal limitação deste estudo destaca-se a implementação parcial do sistema de gestão da formação na unidade e-IPP, devido à falta de tempo e à falta de maturidade da unidade e-IPP.

SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELING AS A QUANTITATIVE-QUALITATIVE FRAMEWORK FOR SUSTAINABLE WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT: INSIGHTS FOR WATER QUALITY POLICY IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION

Early water resources modeling efforts were aimed mostly at representing hydrologic processes, but the need for interdisciplinary studies has led to increasing complexity and integration of environmental, social, and economic functions. The gradual shift from merely employing engineering-based simulation models to applying more holistic frameworks is an indicator of promising changes in the traditional paradigm for the application of water resources models, supporting more sustainable management decisions. This dissertation contributes to application of a quantitative-qualitative framework for sustainable water resources management using system dynamics simulation, as well as environmental systems analysis techniques to provide insights for water quality management in the Great Lakes basin. The traditional linear thinking paradigm lacks the mental and organizational framework for sustainable development trajectories, and may lead to quick-fix solutions that fail to address key drivers of water resources problems. To facilitate holistic analysis of water resources systems, systems thinking seeks to understand interactions among the subsystems. System dynamics provides a suitable framework for operationalizing systems thinking and its application to water resources problems by offering useful qualitative tools such as causal loop diagrams (CLD), stock-and-flow diagrams (SFD), and system archetypes. The approach provides a high-level quantitative-qualitative modeling framework for "big-picture" understanding of water resources systems, stakeholder participation, policy analysis, and strategic decision making. While quantitative modeling using extensive computer simulations and optimization is still very important and needed for policy screening, qualitative system dynamics models can improve understanding of general trends and the root causes of problems, and thus promote sustainable water resources decision making. Within the system dynamics framework, a growth and underinvestment (G&U) system archetype governing Lake Allegan's eutrophication problem was hypothesized to explain the system's problematic behavior and identify policy leverage points for mitigation. A system dynamics simulation model was developed to characterize the lake's recovery from its hypereutrophic state and assess a number of proposed total maximum daily load (TMDL) reduction policies, including phosphorus load reductions from point sources (PS) and non-point sources (NPS). It was shown that, for a TMDL plan to be effective, it should be considered a component of a continuous sustainability process, which considers the functionality of dynamic feedback relationships between socio-economic growth, land use change, and environmental conditions. Furthermore, a high-level simulation-optimization framework was developed to guide watershed scale BMP implementation in the Kalamazoo watershed. Agricultural BMPs should be given priority in the watershed in order to facilitate cost-efficient attainment of the Lake Allegan's TP concentration target. However, without adequate support policies, agricultural BMP implementation may adversely affect the agricultural producers. Results from a case study of the Maumee River basin show that coordinated BMP implementation across upstream and downstream watersheds can significantly improve cost efficiency of TP load abatement.

Studies of CMS data access patterns with machine learning techniques

This thesis presents a study of the Grid data access patterns in distributed analysis in the CMS experiment at the LHC accelerator. This study ranges from the deep analysis of the historical patterns of access to the most relevant data types in CMS, to the exploitation of a supervised Machine Learning classification system to set-up a machinery able to eventually predict future data access patterns - i.e. the so-called dataset “popularity” of the CMS datasets on the Grid - with focus on specific data types. All the CMS workflows run on the Worldwide LHC Computing Grid (WCG) computing centers (Tiers), and in particular the distributed analysis systems sustains hundreds of users and applications submitted every day. These applications (or “jobs”) access different data types hosted on disk storage systems at a large set of WLCG Tiers. The detailed study of how this data is accessed, in terms of data types, hosting Tiers, and different time periods, allows to gain precious insight on storage occupancy over time and different access patterns, and ultimately to extract suggested actions based on this information (e.g. targetted disk clean-up and/or data replication). In this sense, the application of Machine Learning techniques allows to learn from past data and to gain predictability potential for the future CMS data access patterns. Chapter 1 provides an introduction to High Energy Physics at the LHC. Chapter 2 describes the CMS Computing Model, with special focus on the data management sector, also discussing the concept of dataset popularity. Chapter 3 describes the study of CMS data access patterns with different depth levels. Chapter 4 offers a brief introduction to basic machine learning concepts and gives an introduction to its application in CMS and discuss the results obtained by using this approach in the context of this thesis.

Urban management revolution : intelligent management systems for ubiquitous cities

A successful urban management support system requires an integrated approach. This integration includes bringing together economic, socio-cultural and urban development with a well orchestrated transparent and open decision making mechanism. The paper emphasises the importance of integrated urban management to better tackle the climate change, and to achieve sustainable urban development and sound urban growth management. This paper introduces recent approaches on urban management systems, such as intelligent urban management systems, that are suitable for ubiquitous cities. The paper discusses the essential role of online collaborative decision making in urban and infrastructure planning, development and management, and advocates transparent, fully democratic and participatory mechanisms for an effective urban management system that is particularly suitable for ubiquitous cities. This paper also sheds light on some of the unclear processes of urban management of ubiquitous cities and online collaborative decision making, and reveals the key benefits of integrated and participatory mechanisms in successfully constructing sustainable ubiquitous cities.

ARCS collaboration tools

The Australian Research Collaboration Service (ARCS) has been supporting a wide range of Collaboration Services and Tools which have been allowing researchers, groups and research communities to share ideas and collaborate across organisational boundaries.----- This talk will give an introduction to a number of exciting technologies which are now available. Focus will be on two main areas of Video Collaboration Tools, allowing researchers to talk face-to-face and share data in real-time, and Web Collaboration Tools, allowing researchers to share information and ideas with other like-minded researchers irrespective of distance or organisational structure. A number of examples will also be shown of how these technologies have been used with in various research communities.----- A brief introduction will be given to a number of services which ARCS is now operating and/or supporting such as:--- * EVO – A video conferencing application, which is particularly suited to desktop or low bandwidth applications.--- * AccessGrid – An open source video conferencing and collaboration tool kit, which is great for room to room meetings.--- * Sakai – An online collaboration and learning environment, support teaching and learning, ad hoc group collaboration, support for portfolios and research collaboration.--- * Plone – A ready-to-run content management system, that provides you with a system for managing web content that is ideal for project groups, communities, web sites, extranets and intranets.--- * Wikis – A way to easily create, edit, and link pages together, to create collaborative websites.

ARCS collaboration tools and support workshop

Registration fees for this workshop are being met by ARCS. There is no cost to attend; however space is limited.----- The Australian Research Collaboration Service (ARCS) has been supporting a wide range of Collaboration Services and Tools which have been allowing researchers, groups and research communities to share ideas and collaborate across organisational boundaries.----- This workshop will give an introduction into a number of web based and real-time collaboration tools and services which researchers may find useful for day-to-day collaboration with members of a research team located within an institution or across institutions. Attendees will be shown how a number of these tools work with strong emphasis placed on how these tools can help facilitate communication and collaboration. Attendees will have the opportunity to try out a number of examples themselves, and interact with the workshop staff to discuss how their own use cases could benefit from the tools and services which can be provided.----- Outline: A hands on introduction will be given to a number of services which ARCS is now operating and/or supporting such as:--- * EVO – A video conferencing environment, which is particularly suited to desktop or low bandwidth applications.--- * AccessGrid – An open source video conferencing and collaboration tool kit, which is great for room to room meetings.--- * Sakai – An online collaboration and learning environment, support teaching and learning, ad hoc group collaboration, support for portfolios and research collaboration.--- * Plone and Drupal – A ready-to-run content management system, that provides you with a system for managing web content that is ideal for project groups, communities, web sites, extranets and intranets.--- * Wikis – A way to easily create, edit, and link pages together, to create collaborative websites.

Student success : the identification and support of first year university students at risk of attrition

The engagement behaviour of 1,524 student-enrolments (“students”) in five first year units was monitored and 608 (39.9%) were classified as “at risk” using the criterion of not submitting or failing their first assignment. Of these, 327 (53.8%) were successfully contacted (i.e., spoken to by phone) and provided with advice and/or referral to learning and personal support services while the remaining 281 (46.2%) could not be contacted. Nine hundred and sixteen students (60.1%) were classified as “not at risk.” Overall, the at risk group who were contacted achieved significantly higher end-of-semester final grades than, and persisted (completed the unit) at more than twice the rate of, the at risk group who were not contacted. There were variations among the units which were explained by the timing of the first assignment, specific teaching-learning processes and the structure of the curriculum. Implications for curriculum design and supporting first year students within a personal, social and academic framework are discussed.

Intelligent urban management systems : online decision support systems for ubiquitous cities

A successful urban management support system requires an integrated approach. This integration includes bringing together economic, socio-cultural and urban development with a well orchestrated, transparent and open decision making mechanism. The chapter emphasizes the importance of integrated urban management to better tackle the climate change, and to achieve sustainable urban development and sound urban growth management. This chapter introduces recent approaches on urban management systems, such as intelligent urban management systems, that are suitable for ubiquitous cities. The chapter discusses the essential role of online collaborative decision making in urban and infrastructure planning, development and management, and advocates transparent, fully democratic and participatory mechanisms for an effective urban management system that is particularly suitable for ubiquitous cities. This chapter also sheds light on some of the unclear processes of urban management of ubiquitous cities and online collaborative decision making, and reveals the key benefits of integrated and participatory mechanisms in successfully constructing sustainable ubiquitous cities.