Does money matter in shaping domestic business cycles? An international investigation (with appendices)

We study the contribution of money to business cycle fluctuations in the US,the UK, Japan, and the Euro area using a small scale structural monetary business cycle model. Constrained likelihood-based estimates of the parameters areprovided and time instabilities analyzed. Real balances are statistically importantfor output and inflation fluctuations. Their contribution changes over time. Models giving money no role provide a distorted representation of the sources of cyclicalfluctuations, of the transmission of shocks and of the events of the last 40 years.

Openness, government size and the terms of trade

This paper investigates the relationship between trade openness and the size of government, both theoretically and empirically. We show that openness can increase the size of governments through two channels: (1) a terms of trade externality, whereby trade lowers the domestic cost of taxation and (2) the demand for insurance, whereby trade raises risk and public transfers. We provide a unified framework for studying and testing these two mechanisms. First, we show how their relative strength depends on a key parameter, the elasticity of substitution between domestic and foreign goods. Second, while the terms of trade externality leads to inefficiently large governments, the increase in public spending due to the demand for insurance is optimal. We show that large volumes of trade may result in welfare losses if the terms of trade externality is strong enough while small volumes of trade are always beneficial. Third, we provide new evidence on the positive association between openness and the size of government and test whether it is consistent with the terms of trade externality or the demand for insurance. Our findings suggest that the positive relationship is remarkably robust and that the terms of trade externality may be the driving force behind it, thus raising warnings that globalization may have led to inefficiently large governments.

Inventory-routing model, for a multi-period problem with stochastic and deterministic demand

The need for integration in the supply chain management leads us to considerthe coordination of two logistic planning functions: transportation andinventory. The coordination of these activities can be an extremely importantsource of competitive advantage in the supply chain management. The battle forcost reduction can pass through the equilibrium of transportation versusinventory managing costs. In this work, we study the specific case of aninventory-routing problem for a week planning period with different types ofdemand. A heuristic methodology, based on the Iterated Local Search, isproposed to solve the Multi-Period Inventory Routing Problem with stochasticand deterministic demand.

Exposition de l'enfant a des violences domestiques. Un modèle pluridisciplinaire de détection, d'evaluation et de prise en charge [Children's exposure to domestic violence. A multidisciplinary model of detection, assessment and management].

Children psychological abuse is difficult to identify. However, its consequences on child development can be as serious as physical and sexual abuses. It is therefore essential, to implement in our hospitals, structures whose missions are successively to detect victims, evaluate them on somatic and psychological levels, and elaborate a therapy. We propose a model for the achievement of these objectives through collaboration between the Medical Unit of Violence, the Pediatric CAN Team and the Unit of Les Boréales.

On heuristic and linear models of judgment: Mapping the demand for knowledge

Research on judgment and decision making presents a confusing picture of human abilities. For example, much research has emphasized the dysfunctional aspects of judgmental heuristics, and yet, other findings suggest that these can be highly effective. A further line of research has modeled judgment as resulting from as if linear models. This paper illuminates the distinctions in these approaches by providing a common analytical framework based on the central theoretical premise that understanding human performance requires specifying how characteristics of the decision rules people use interact with the demands of the tasks they face. Our work synthesizes the analytical tools of lens model research with novel methodology developed to specify the effectiveness of heuristics in different environments and allows direct comparisons between the different approaches. We illustrate with both theoretical analyses and simulations. We further link our results to the empirical literature by a meta-analysis of lens model studies and estimate both human andheuristic performance in the same tasks. Our results highlight the trade-off betweenlinear models and heuristics. Whereas the former are cognitively demanding, the latterare simple to use. However, they require knowledge and thus maps of when andwhich heuristic to employ.

Demand for pharmaceutical drugs: A choice modelling experiment

Despite the importance of supplier inducement and brand loyalty inthe drug purchasing process, little empirical evidence is to be foundwith regard to the influence that these factors exert on patients decisions. Under the new scenario of easier access to information,patients are becoming more demanding and even go as far asquestioning their physicians prescription. Furthermore, newregulation also encourages patients to adopt an active role in thedecision between brand-name and generic drugs. Using a statedpreference model based on a choice survey, I have found evidenceof how significant physicians prescription and pharmacists recommendation become throughout the drug purchase process and,to what extent, brand loyalty influences the final decision. Asfar as we are aware, this paper is the first to explicitlytake consumers preferences into account rather than focusingon the behavior of health professionals.

The State of the Judiciary, 2009

Thank you for inviting me again this year to talk with you about the condition of Iowa’s judicial branch. As your partner in government, we look forward to working with you on issues affecting the administration of justice. If I could capture the condition of our courts, indeed the condition of our state, in a few words, it would be: “We live in challenging times.” No one knows the true meaning of this phrase better than those Iowans hit by natural disasters. But my focus today is, of course, on the courts. Ensuring the delivery of equal, affordable and accessible justice is always challenging work, but it will be especially so this year and the next in light of the State’s budget problems. Given the magnitude of this challenge, it is even more imperative that we work together in the spirit of unity, candor and cooperation. And I address you today in this spirit. We are deeply concerned, as you are, about the present financial situation and its effect on individual Iowans. Naturally, we are particularly troubled about its impact on the delivery of justice to our citizens. Even in good economic times, the administration of justice is difficult to fulfill given the sheer volume and complexity of problems Iowans bring to their courthouses. Because of the effects of the nation’s economic downturn, people will need access to justice now more than ever. We already see this happening. The number of mortgage foreclosure cases in Iowa rose 14% in the past year. Debt collection cases increased 20% in the same time. An increase in these types of cases is predictable in tough economic times, but other types of problems may escalate as well. Some experts fear that a recession may also give rise to more crime, child abuse, domestic violence, and substance abuse. Naturally, for the sake of the people who may be harmed by these problems, we hope they do not occur. If they do, however, these matters will demand our immediate attention.

Trade liberalization in Uruguay: Domestic and foreign firms

The reallocation of resources is one of the main impacts of tradeliberalization processes. In the case of manufacturing industries resourceswill be reallocated from import--competing sectors to export--orientedsectors. This paper studies the effects that a more open economic environmenthas had on the entry conditions for foreign and domestic firms in Uruguayanmanufacturing industries. We find significant differences in the behaviorof foreign and domestic firms, both when they are incumbents or when theyact as potential entrants. In general, foreign firms seem to be moresuccessful in applying entry deterring strategies, due to advantages inforeign markets, deeper financial resources or better technological capabilities.They also appear to be more responsive to entry conditions when theyface the prospects of entering a given industry.

Amoeba-resisting Chlamydiales present in domestic drinking water and their potential role in pneumonia

Chlamydia-related bacteria classified in the Chlamydiales order, are strictly intracellular bacteria and are able for the most to replicate in free-living amoebae. Amoebae, ubiquitous in the environment and especially in water, are very resistant to disinfection used in drinking water production. Thus, amoebae may reach easily the distribution and domestic water system, potentially sheltering amoeba-resisting bacteria including Legionella, mycobacteria and Chlamydiales. Indeed, some of these amoeba-resisting bacteria have been shown to cause respiratory infections in people inhaling contaminated water. Therefore, an environmental and clinical study was conducted to determine if Chlamydiales bacteria are also involved in respiratory infections and if a transmission through domestic drinking water could occur. First, large scale molecular and serological tools specific of Chlamydia-related bacteria were developed and then were applied on clinical samples from patients with and without pneumonia. Simultaneously, water and biofilm samples from households of the same patients were investigated using molecular and culture methods for the presence of Chlamydiales bacteria. Chlamydiales were detected in the nasopharyngeal flora from patients with and without pneumonia. However, no significant difference was observed between both groups. Conversely, serological investigations showed that antibody reactivity against members of the Criblamydiaceae was associated with pneumonia. The thesis provided very efficient tools that showed the presence of Chlamydiales in human nasopharyngeal flora as well as in the majority of the domestic drinking water. However, no transmission from domestic drinking water to human could be demonstrated. These tools will help in the future specifying the ecology and pathogenicity of the Chlamydia-re\ated bacteria and especially of the species belonging to the Criblamydiaceae family.

The role of migration and domestic transmission in the spread of HIV-1 non-B subtypes in Switzerland.

BACKGROUND: By analyzing human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) pol sequences from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS), we explored whether the prevalence of non-B subtypes reflects domestic transmission or migration patterns. METHODS: Swiss non-B sequences and sequences collected abroad were pooled to construct maximum likelihood trees, which were analyzed for Swiss-specific subepidemics, (subtrees including ≥80% Swiss sequences, bootstrap >70%; macroscale analysis) or evidence for domestic transmission (sequence pairs with genetic distance <1.5%, bootstrap ≥98%; microscale analysis). RESULTS: Of 8287 SHCS participants, 1732 (21%) were infected with non-B subtypes, of which A (n = 328), C (n = 272), CRF01_AE (n = 258), and CRF02_AG (n = 285) were studied further. The macroscale analysis revealed that 21% (A), 16% (C), 24% (CRF01_AE), and 28% (CRF02_AG) belonged to Swiss-specific subepidemics. The microscale analysis identified 26 possible transmission pairs: 3 (12%) including only homosexual Swiss men of white ethnicity; 3 (12%) including homosexual white men from Switzerland and partners from foreign countries; and 10 (38%) involving heterosexual white Swiss men and females of different nationality and predominantly nonwhite ethnicity. CONCLUSIONS: Of all non-B infections diagnosed in Switzerland, <25% could be prevented by domestic interventions. Awareness should be raised among immigrants and Swiss individuals with partners from high prevalence countries to contain the spread of non-B subtypes.

Optimal management of microgrids

Desenvolupament dels models matemàtics necessaris per a controlar de forma òptima la microxarxa existent als laboratoris del Institut de Recerca en Energia de Catalunya. Els algoritmes s'implementaran per tal de simular el comportament i posteriorment es programaran directament sobre els elements de la microxarxa per verificar el seu correcte funcionament.. Desenvolupament dels models matemàtics necessaris per a controlar de forma òptima la microxarxa existent als laboratoris del Institut de Recerca en Energia de Catalunya. Els algoritmes s'implementaran per tal de simular el comportament i posteriorment es programaran directament sobre els elements de la microxarxa per verificar el seu correcte funcionament.

Transplanted beta cell response to increased metabolic demand. Changes in beta cell replication and mass

We determined the capacity of transplanted beta cells to modify their replication and mass when stimulated by changes in metabolic demand. Five groups of Lewis rats were studied: group 1 (Tx-Px) had a 95% pancreatectomy 14 d after transplantation of 500 islets; group 2 (Px-Tx) had a 95% pancreatectomy 14 d before transplantation of 500 islets; group 3 (Tx) was transplanted with 500 islets; group 4 (Px) had a 95% pancreatectomy; and group 5 (normal) was neither transplanted nor pancreatectomized. Blood glucose was normal in Tx-Px and Tx groups at all times. Px-Tx and Px groups developed severe hyperglycemia after pancreatectomy that was corrected in Px-Tx group in 83% of rats 28 d after transplantation. Replication of transplanted beta cells increased in Tx-Px (1.15 +/- 0.12%) and Px-Tx (0.85 +/- 0.12%) groups, but not in Tx group (0.64 +/- 0.07%) compared with normal pancreatic beta cells (0.38 +/- 0.05%) (P < 0.001). Mean beta cell size increased in Tx-Px (311 +/- 14 microns2) and Px-Tx (328 +/- 13 microns2) groups compared with Tx (252 +/- 12 microns2) and normal (239 +/- 9 microns2) groups (P < 0.001). Transplanted beta cell mass increased in Tx-Px (1.87 +/- 0.51 mg) and Px-Tx (1.55 +/- 0.21 mg) groups compared with Tx group (0.78 +/- 0.17 mg) (P < 0.05). In summary, changes in transplanted beta cells prevented the development of hyperglycemia in Tx-Px rats. Transplanted beta cells responded to increased metabolic demand increasing their beta cell mass.