Brain-Computer Interfaces for augmented communication: Asynchronous and adaptive algorithms and evaluation with end users

This thesis aimed at addressing some of the issues that, at the state of the art, avoid the P300-based brain computer interface (BCI) systems to move from research laboratories to end users’ home. An innovative asynchronous classifier has been defined and validated. It relies on the introduction of a set of thresholds in the classifier, and such thresholds have been assessed considering the distributions of score values relating to target, non-target stimuli and epochs of voluntary no-control. With the asynchronous classifier, a P300-based BCI system can adapt its speed to the current state of the user and can automatically suspend the control when the user diverts his attention from the stimulation interface. Since EEG signals are non-stationary and show inherent variability, in order to make long-term use of BCI possible, it is important to track changes in ongoing EEG activity and to adapt BCI model parameters accordingly. To this aim, the asynchronous classifier has been subsequently improved by introducing a self-calibration algorithm for the continuous and unsupervised recalibration of the subjective control parameters. Finally an index for the online monitoring of the EEG quality has been defined and validated in order to detect potential problems and system failures. This thesis ends with the description of a translational work involving end users (people with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis-ALS). Focusing on the concepts of the user centered design approach, the phases relating to the design, the development and the validation of an innovative assistive device have been described. The proposed assistive technology (AT) has been specifically designed to meet the needs of people with ALS during the different phases of the disease (i.e. the degree of motor abilities impairment). Indeed, the AT can be accessed with several input devices either conventional (mouse, touchscreen) or alterative (switches, headtracker) up to a P300-based BCI.

Analysis and modelling of the performance of technologies for flue gas treatment in Waste-to-Energy processes

Waste management represents an important issue in our society and Waste-to-Energy incineration plants have been playing a significant role in the last decades, showing an increased importance in Europe. One of the main issues posed by waste combustion is the generation of air contaminants. Particular concern is present about acid gases, mainly hydrogen chloride and sulfur oxides, due to their potential impact on the environment and on human health. Therefore, in the present study the main available technological options for flue gas treatment were analyzed, focusing on dry treatment systems, which are increasingly applied in Municipal Solid Wastes (MSW) incinerators. An operational model was proposed to describe and optimize acid gas removal process. It was applied to an existing MSW incineration plant, where acid gases are neutralized in a two-stage dry treatment system. This process is based on the injection of powdered calcium hydroxide and sodium bicarbonate in reactors followed by fabric filters. HCl and SO2 conversions were expressed as a function of reactants flow rates, calculating model parameters from literature and plant data. The implementation in a software for process simulation allowed the identification of optimal operating conditions, taking into account the reactant feed rates, the amount of solid products and the recycle of the sorbent. Alternative configurations of the reference plant were also assessed. The applicability of the operational model was extended developing also a fundamental approach to the issue. A predictive model was developed, describing mass transfer and kinetic phenomena governing the acid gas neutralization with solid sorbents. The rate controlling steps were identified through the reproduction of literature data, allowing the description of acid gas removal in the case study analyzed. A laboratory device was also designed and started up to assess the required model parameters.

Asymmetric drift and halo flattening in disk galaxies

The main result in this work is the solution of the Jeans equations for an axisymmetric galaxy model containing a baryonic component (distributed according to a Miyamoto-Nagai profile) and a dark matter halo (described by the Binney logarithmic potential). The velocity dispersion, azimuthal velocity and some other interesting quantities such as the asymmetric drift are studied, along with the influence of the model parameters on these (observable) quantities. We also give an estimate for the velocity of the radial flow, caused by the asymmetric drift. Other than the mathematical beauty that lies in solving a model analytically, the interest of this kind of results can be mainly found in numerical simulations that study the evolution of gas flows. For example, it is important to know how certain parameters such as the shape (oblate, prolate, spherical) of a dark matter halo, or the flattening of the baryonic matter, or the mass ratio between dark and baryonic matter, have an influence on observable quantities such as the velocity dispersion. In the introductory chapter, we discuss the Jeans equations, which provide information about the velocity dispersion of a system. Next we will consider some dynamical quantities that will be useful in the rest of the work, e.g. the asymmetric drift. In Chapter 2 we discuss in some more detail the family of galaxy models we studied. In Chapter 3 we give the solution of the Jeans equations. Chapter 4 describes and illustrates the behaviour of the velocity dispersion, as a function of the several parameters, along with asymptotic expansions. In Chapter 5 we will investigate the behaviour of certain dynamical quantities for this model. We conclude with a discussion in Chapter 6.

The reconstruction of skeletal movement: the soft tissue artefact issue

In 3D human movement analysis performed using stereophotogrammetric systems and skin markers, bone pose can only be estimated in an indirect fashion. During a movement, soft tissue deformations make the markers move with respect to the underlying bone generating soft tissue artefact (STA). STA has devastating effects on bone pose estimation and its compensation remains an open question. The aim of this PhD thesis was to contribute to the solution of this crucial issue. Modelling STA using measurable trial-specific variables is a fundamental prerequisite for its removal from marker trajectories. Two STA model architectures are proposed. Initially, a thigh marker-level artefact model is presented. STA was modelled as a linear combination of joint angles involved in the movement. This model was calibrated using ex-vivo and in-vivo STA invasive measures. The considerable number of model parameters led to defining STA approximations. Three definitions were proposed to represent STA as a series of modes: individual marker displacements, marker-cluster geometrical transformations (MCGT), and skin envelope shape variations. Modes were selected using two criteria: one based on modal energy and another on the selection of modes chosen a priori. The MCGT allows to select either rigid or non-rigid STA components. It was also empirically demonstrated that only the rigid component affects joint kinematics, regardless of the non-rigid amplitude. Therefore, a model of thigh and shank STA rigid component at cluster-level was then defined. An acceptable trade-off between STA compensation effectiveness and number of parameters can be obtained, improving joint kinematics accuracy. The obtained results lead to two main potential applications: the proposed models can generate realistic STAs for simulation purposes to compare different skeletal kinematics estimators; and, more importantly, focusing only on the STA rigid component, the model attains a satisfactory STA reconstruction with less parameters, facilitating its incorporation in an pose estimator.

Leben mit Phenprocoumon — optimal versorgt? : Untersuchung der Qualität und Effektivität der Phenprocoumon-Therapie im ambulanten Sektor

In Deutschland wird zur oralen Vitamin-K-Antagonistentherapie überwiegend der Wirkstoff Phenprocoumon (PPC) eingesetzt und die meisten Patienten werden durch ihren Hausarzt betreut. In einer deskriptiven, nicht-interventionellen Studie wurde die Ist-Situation der Versorgung von PPC-Patienten im ambulanten Sektor untersucht. Ziel war es, die Qualität und Effektivität der bisherigen Standardtherapie zu evaluieren. In Anbetracht der Einführung der neuen oralen Antikoagulantien (NOAC) ist die Untersuchung der PPC-Therapie von besonderem Interesse. Dem „Throughput-Modell“ folgend sollten „Input“- und „Outcome“-Parameter analysiert werden. rnIn einer klinischen Studie wurden 50 ambulant behandelte Patienten mit PPC-Therapie jeweils über einen Zeitraum von 3 Jahren retrospektiv beobachtet. In 5 niedergelassenen Arztpraxen in Rheinland-Pfalz wurden dazu 10 Patienten pro Praxis rekrutiert. Anhand der Patientenakte wurde eine Dokumentenanalyse durchgeführt. Die Selbstmedikation wurde mit einem eigens erstellten Fragebogen erfasst. rnIm Studienkollektiv wurden im Median 3 Comorbiditäten ermittelt. Die mediane Wochendosis betrug 4,0 Tabletten à 3 mg PPC. Die Patienten wurden im Median mit weiteren 15 verschiedenen Wirkstoffen therapiert, einer davon wurde in Selbstmedikation eingenommen. Im gesamten Beobachtungszeitraum fanden pro Patient im Median 57 Arztbesuche statt, die durch die Phenprocoumon-Therapie bedingt waren. INR (International normalized ratio)-Messungen (Median 47) waren der häufigste Grund für die Arztbesuche, so dass ein 3-Wochen-Rhythmus vom Gesamtkollektiv zu 97% erreicht wurde. Die „stabile“ INR-Einstellung wurde im Median nach 94 Tagen erreicht. Die prozentuale Rate (INR (%)) für die Einhaltung des INR-Zielbereiches (ZSB) erreichte internationale Benchmark-Werte, was auf eine gute Versorgungsqualität hindeutete. Die genauere Analyse ergab jedoch große interindividuelle Schwankungen. Während der „stabilen“ INR-Einstellung wurden bessere Ergebnisse als im Gesamtbeobachtungszeitraum erzielt. Drei Patienten (6%) erreichten die „stabile“ INR-Einstellung innerhalb von 3 Jahren nie. Die Auswertung für den erweiterten ZSB (ZSB ± 0,2) ergab bessere INR (%)-Ergebnisse als für den ZSB. Die Zeit im INR-ZSB (TTR (%)) erreichte mit 75% höhere Werte als INR (%) im ZSB mit 70%. Tendenziell war das Patientenkollektiv eher unter- als übertherapiert (Median „Under-INR“ 18% bzw. „Over-INR“ 8%). Erkrankungen und Impfungen stellten die wichtigsten der zahlreichen Einflussfaktoren für INR-Shifts hin zu Werten außerhalb des ZSB dar. Patienten, die Comedikation mit hohem Interaktionspotential einnahmen, erreichten in den INR-Qualitätsindikatoren schlechtere Ergebnisse als Patienten ohne potentiell interagierende Comedikation (Mann-Whitney-U-Test; p-Wert=0,003 für TTR (%), p=0,008 für INR (%)). In Zeitintervallen der „stabilen“ INR-Einstellung war der Unterschied nur für TTR (%) auffällig (Mann-Whitney-U-Test; p=0,015). Für den erweiterten ZSB waren die Unterschiede bezüglich beider INR-Qualitätsindikatoren nicht auffällig. Insgesamt wurden 41 unerwünschte Ereignisse (UAW) beobachtet, davon 24 (59%) in der Phase der „stabilen“ INR-Einstellung (21 leichte Blutungen, 1 schwere Blutung, 2 thromboembolische Ereignisse (TE)). Je 4 leichte Blutungen (19%) wurden in einen möglichen bzw. sicheren kausalen Zusammenhang mit der VKA-Therapie gebracht, wenn ein Zeitintervall von 3 Tagen zwischen der INR-Messung und Auftreten der UAW geprüft wurde. Ein TE wurde als sicher kausal gewertet. Von insgesamt 5 Krankenhausaufenthalten waren 3 bzw. 2 durch Blutungen bzw. TE veranlasst. Des Weiteren wurde im 3-Tage-Zeitintervall für 4 INR-Shifts hin zu Werten außerhalb des ZSB eine Interaktion mit verordneter CM als in sicherem oder möglichem kausalen Zusammenhang bewertet. Bei 49% der beobachteten Grippeimpfungen wurde ein INR-Shift festgestellt, der in ca. 60% der Fälle zu einem subtherapeutischen INR-Wert führte. Insgesamt war das klinische Ergebnis nicht optimal. rnDas „Outcome“ in Form der gesundheitsbezogenen Lebensqualität (LQ) wurde retrospektiv-prospektiv mittels SF-36-Fragebogen ermittelt. Die Patienten zeigten gegenüber der Normalbevölkerung einen Verlust an LQ auf körperlicher Ebene bzw. einen Gewinn auf psychischer Ebene. Das humanistische Ergebnis erfüllte bzw. übertraf damit die Erwartungen. rnInsgesamt wiesen die Ergebnisse darauf hin, dass Qualität und Effektivität der Antikoagulationstherapie mit PPC im ambulanten Sektor weiterer Optimierung bedürfen. Mit intensivierten Betreuungsmodellen lässt sich ein besseres Outcome erzielen. rn

Anpassung des Metamodells PerPot an den ausdauerorientierten Laufsport zur Trainings- und Wettkampfoptimierung

Schon seit einigen Jahrzehnten wird die Sportwissenschaft durch computergestützte Methoden in ihrer Arbeit unterstützt. Mit der stetigen Weiterentwicklung der Technik kann seit einigen Jahren auch zunehmend die Sportpraxis von deren Einsatz profitieren. Mathematische und informatische Modelle sowie Algorithmen werden zur Leistungsoptimierung sowohl im Mannschafts- als auch im Individualsport genutzt. In der vorliegenden Arbeit wird das von Prof. Perl im Jahr 2000 entwickelte Metamodell PerPot an den ausdauerorientierten Laufsport angepasst. Die Änderungen betreffen sowohl die interne Modellstruktur als auch die Art der Ermittlung der Modellparameter. Damit das Modell in der Sportpraxis eingesetzt werden kann, wurde ein Kalibrierungs-Test entwickelt, mit dem die spezifischen Modellparameter an den jeweiligen Sportler individuell angepasst werden. Mit dem angepassten Modell ist es möglich, aus gegebenen Geschwindigkeitsprofilen die korrespondierenden Herzfrequenzverläufe abzubilden. Mit dem auf den Athleten eingestellten Modell können anschliessend Simulationen von Läufen durch die Eingabe von Geschwindigkeitsprofilen durchgeführt werden. Die Simulationen können in der Praxis zur Optimierung des Trainings und der Wettkämpfe verwendet werden. Das Training kann durch die Ermittlung einer simulativ bestimmten individuellen anaeroben Schwellenherzfrequenz optimal gesteuert werden. Die statistische Auswertung der PerPot-Schwelle zeigt signifikante Übereinstimmungen mit den in der Sportpraxis üblichen invasiv bestimmten Laktatschwellen. Die Wettkämpfe können durch die Ermittlung eines optimalen Geschwindigkeitsprofils durch verschiedene simulationsbasierte Optimierungsverfahren unterstützt werden. Bei der neuesten Methode erhält der Athlet sogar im Laufe des Wettkampfs aktuelle Prognosen, die auf den Geschwindigkeits- und Herzfrequenzdaten basieren, die während des Wettkampfs gemessen werden. Die mit PerPot optimierten Wettkampfzielzeiten für die Athleten zeigen eine hohe Prognosegüte im Vergleich zu den tatsächlich erreichten Zielzeiten.

Process-based modelling of lichens and bryophytes and their role in global biogeochemical cycles

This thesis presents a process-based modelling approach to quantify carbon uptake by lichens and bryophytes at the global scale. Based on the modelled carbon uptake, potential global rates of nitrogen fixation, phosphorus uptake and chemical weathering by the organisms are estimated. In this way, the significance of lichens and bryophytes for global biogeochemical cycles can be assessed. The model uses gridded climate data and key properties of the habitat (e.g. disturbance intervals) to predict processes which control net carbon uptake, namely photosynthesis, respiration, water uptake and evaporation. It relies on equations used in many dynamical vegetation models, which are combined with concepts specific to lichens and bryophytes, such as poikilohydry or the effect of water content on CO2 diffusivity. To incorporate the great functional variation of lichens and bryophytes at the global scale, the model parameters are characterised by broad ranges of possible values instead of a single, globally uniform value. The predicted terrestrial net uptake of 0.34 to 3.3 Gt / yr of carbon and global patterns of productivity are in accordance with empirically-derived estimates. Based on the simulated estimates of net carbon uptake, further impacts of lichens and bryophytes on biogeochemical cycles are quantified at the global scale. Thereby the focus is on three processes, namely nitrogen fixation, phosphorus uptake and chemical weathering. The presented estimates have the form of potential rates, which means that the amount of nitrogen and phosphorus is quantified which is needed by the organisms to build up biomass, also accounting for resorption and leaching of nutrients. Subsequently, the potential phosphorus uptake on bare ground is used to estimate chemical weathering by the organisms, assuming that they release weathering agents to obtain phosphorus. The predicted requirement for nitrogen ranges from 3.5 to 34 Tg / yr and for phosphorus it ranges from 0.46 to 4.6 Tg / yr. Estimates of chemical weathering are between 0.058 and 1.1 km³ / yr of rock. These values seem to have a realistic order of magnitude and they support the notion that lichens and bryophytes have the potential to play an important role for global biogeochemical cycles.

Computer simulation of rod-coil block copolymers and tetrapod,polymer mixtures

In this thesis I present a new coarse-grained model suitable to investigate the phase behavior of rod-coil block copolymers on mesoscopic length scales. In this model the rods are represented by hard spherocylinders, whereas the coil block consists of interconnected beads. The interactions between the constituents are based on local densities. This facilitates an efficient Monte-Carlo sampling of the phase space. I verify the applicability of the model and the simulation approach by means of several examples. I treat pure rod systems and mixtures of rod and coil polymers. Then I append coils to the rods and investigate the role of the different model parameters. Furthermore, I compare different implementations of the model. I prove the capability of the rod-coil block copolymers in our model to exhibit typical micro-phase separated configurations as well as extraordinary phases, such as the wavy lamellar state, percolating structuresrnand clusters. Additionally, I demonstrate the metastability of the observed zigzag phase in our model. A central point of this thesis is the examination of the phase behavior of the rod-coil block copolymers in dependence of different chain lengths and interaction strengths between rods and coil. The observations of these studies are summarized in a phase diagram for rod-coil block copolymers. Furthermore, I validate a stabilization of the smectic phase with increasing coil fraction.rnIn the second part of this work I present a side project in which I derive a model permitting the simulation of tetrapods with and without grafted semiconducting block copolymers. The effect of these polymers is added in an implicit manner by effective interactions between the tetrapods. While the depletion interaction is described in an approximate manner within the Asakura-Oosawa model, the free energy penalty for the brush compression is calculated within the Alexander-de Gennes model. Recent experiments with CdSe tetrapods show that grafted tetrapods are clearly much better dispersed in the polymer matrix than bare tetrapods. My simulations confirm that bare tetrapods tend to aggregate in the matrix of excess polymers, while clustering is significantly reduced after grafting polymer chains to the tetrapods. Finally, I propose a possible extension enabling the simulation of a system with fluctuating volume and demonstrate its basic functionality. This study is originated in a cooperation with an experimental group with the goal to analyze the morphology of these systems in order to find the ideal morphology for hybrid solar cells.

On the accuracy of Software-based Energy Estimation Techniques

This paper examines the accuracy of software-based on-line energy estimation techniques. It evaluates today’s most widespread energy estimation model in order to investigate whether the current methodology of pure software-based energy estimation running on a sensor node itself can indeed reliably and accurately determine its energy consumption - independent of the particular node instance, the traffic load the node is exposed to, or the MAC protocol the node is running. The paper enhances today’s widely used energy estimation model by integrating radio transceiver switches into the model, and proposes a methodology to find the optimal estimation model parameters. It proves by statistical validation with experimental data that the proposed model enhancement and parameter calibration methodology significantly increases the estimation accuracy.

Constraining global methane emissions and uptake by ecosystems

Natural methane (CH4) emissions from wet ecosystems are an important part of today's global CH4 budget. Climate affects the exchange of CH4 between ecosystems and the atmosphere by influencing CH4 production, oxidation, and transport in the soil. The net CH4 exchange depends on ecosystem hydrology, soil and vegetation characteristics. Here, the LPJ-WHyMe global dynamical vegetation model is used to simulate global net CH4 emissions for different ecosystems: northern peatlands (45°–90° N), naturally inundated wetlands (60° S–45° N), rice agriculture and wet mineral soils. Mineral soils are a potential CH4 sink, but can also be a source with the direction of the net exchange depending on soil moisture content. The geographical and seasonal distributions are evaluated against multi-dimensional atmospheric inversions for 2003–2005, using two independent four-dimensional variational assimilation systems. The atmospheric inversions are constrained by the atmospheric CH4 observations of the SCIAMACHY satellite instrument and global surface networks. Compared to LPJ-WHyMe the inversions result in a~significant reduction in the emissions from northern peatlands and suggest that LPJ-WHyMe maximum annual emissions peak about one month late. The inversions do not put strong constraints on the division of sources between inundated wetlands and wet mineral soils in the tropics. Based on the inversion results we diagnose model parameters in LPJ-WHyMe and simulate the surface exchange of CH4 over the period 1990–2008. Over the whole period we infer an increase of global ecosystem CH4 emissions of +1.11 Tg CH4 yr−1, not considering potential additional changes in wetland extent. The increase in simulated CH4 emissions is attributed to enhanced soil respiration resulting from the observed rise in land temperature and in atmospheric carbon dioxide that were used as input. The long-term decline of the atmospheric CH4 growth rate from 1990 to 2006 cannot be fully explained with the simulated ecosystem emissions. However, these emissions show an increasing trend of +3.62 Tg CH4 yr−1 over 2005–2008 which can partly explain the renewed increase in atmospheric CH4 concentration during recent years.

Assessing the Validity of Brain Glucose Concentration Measurement Using Microdialysis

Brain functions, such as learning, orchestrating locomotion, memory recall, and processing information, all require glucose as a source of energy. During these functions, the glucose concentration decreases as the glucose is being consumed by brain cells. By measuring this drop in concentration, it is possible to determine which parts of the brain are used during specific functions and consequently, how much energy the brain requires to complete the function. One way to measure in vivo brain glucose levels is with a microdialysis probe. The drawback of this analytical procedure, as with many steadystate fluid flow systems, is that the probe fluid will not reach equilibrium with the brain fluid. Therefore, brain concentration is inferred by taking samples at multiple inlet glucose concentrations and finding a point of convergence. The goal of this thesis is to create a three-dimensional, time-dependent, finite element representation of the brainprobe system in COMSOL 4.2 that describes the diffusion and convection of glucose. Once validated with experimental results, this model can then be used to test parameters that experiments cannot access. When simulations were run using published values for physical constants (i.e. diffusivities, density and viscosity), the resulting glucose model concentrations were within the error of the experimental data. This verifies that the model is an accurate representation of the physical system. In addition to accurately describing the experimental brain-probe system, the model I created is able to show the validity of zero-net-flux for a given experiment. A useful discovery is that the slope of the zero-net-flux line is dependent on perfusate flow rate and diffusion coefficients, but it is independent of brain glucose concentrations. The model was simplified with the realization that the perfusate is at thermal equilibrium with the brain throughout the active region of the probe. This allowed for the assumption that all model parameters are temperature independent. The time to steady-state for the probe is approximately one minute. However, the signal degrades in the exit tubing due to Taylor dispersion, on the order of two minutes for two meters of tubing. Given an analytical instrument requiring a five μL aliquot, the smallest brain process measurable for this system is 13 minutes.

Bayes Factors Based on Test Statistics

Traditionally, the use of Bayes factors has required the specification of proper prior distributions on model parameters implicit to both null and alternative hypotheses. In this paper, I describe an approach to defining Bayes factors based on modeling test statistics. Because the distributions of test statistics do not depend on unknown model parameters, this approach eliminates the subjectivity normally associated with the definition of Bayes factors. For standard test statistics, including the _2, F, t and z statistics, the values of Bayes factors that result from this approach can be simply expressed in closed form.

Optimized temperature and deadspace correction improve analysis of multiple breath washout measurements by ultrasonic flowmeter in infants

BACKGROUND: Assessment of lung volume (FRC) and ventilation inhomogeneities with ultrasonic flowmeter and multiple breath washout (MBW) has been used to provide important information about lung disease in infants. Sub-optimal adjustment of the mainstream molar mass (MM) signal for temperature and external deadspace may lead to analysis errors in infants with critically small tidal volume changes during breathing. METHODS: We measured expiratory temperature in human infants at 5 weeks of age and examined the influence of temperature and deadspace changes on FRC results with computer simulation modeling. A new analysis method with optimized temperature and deadspace settings was then derived, tested for robustness to analysis errors and compared with the previously used analysis methods. RESULTS: Temperature in the facemask was higher and variations of deadspace volumes larger than previously assumed. Both showed considerable impact upon FRC and LCI results with high variability when obtained with the previously used analysis model. Using the measured temperature we optimized model parameters and tested a newly derived analysis method, which was found to be more robust to variations in deadspace. Comparison between both analysis methods showed systematic differences and a wide scatter. CONCLUSION: Corrected deadspace and more realistic temperature assumptions improved the stability of the analysis of MM measurements obtained by ultrasonic flowmeter in infants. This new analysis method using the only currently available commercial ultrasonic flowmeter in infants may help to improve stability of the analysis and further facilitate assessment of lung volume and ventilation inhomogeneities in infants.

Checking Assumptions in Latent Class Regression Models via a Markov Chain Monte Carlo Estimation Approach: An Application to Depression and Socio-Economic Status

Latent class regression models are useful tools for assessing associations between covariates and latent variables. However, evaluation of key model assumptions cannot be performed using methods from standard regression models due to the unobserved nature of latent outcome variables. This paper presents graphical diagnostic tools to evaluate whether or not latent class regression models adhere to standard assumptions of the model: conditional independence and non-differential measurement. An integral part of these methods is the use of a Markov Chain Monte Carlo estimation procedure. Unlike standard maximum likelihood implementations for latent class regression model estimation, the MCMC approach allows us to calculate posterior distributions and point estimates of any functions of parameters. It is this convenience that allows us to provide the diagnostic methods that we introduce. As a motivating example we present an analysis focusing on the association between depression and socioeconomic status, using data from the Epidemiologic Catchment Area study. We consider a latent class regression analysis investigating the association between depression and socioeconomic status measures, where the latent variable depression is regressed on education and income indicators, in addition to age, gender, and marital status variables. While the fitted latent class regression model yields interesting results, the model parameters are found to be invalid due to the violation of model assumptions. The violation of these assumptions is clearly identified by the presented diagnostic plots. These methods can be applied to standard latent class and latent class regression models, and the general principle can be extended to evaluate model assumptions in other types of models.

Shear band evolution in Zr/Hf-based bulk metallic glasses under static and dynamic indentations

Bulk metallic glasses (BMGs) exhibit superior mechanical properties as compared with other conventional materials and have been proposed for numerous engineering and technological applications. Zr/Hf-based BMGs or tungsten reinforced BMG composites are considered as a potential replacement for depleted uranium armor-piercing projectiles because of their ability to form localized shear bands during impact, which has been known to be the dominant plastic deformation mechanism in BMGs. However, in conventional tensile, compressive and bending tests, limited ductility has been observed because of fracture initiation immediately following the shear band formation. To fully investigate shear band characteristics, indentation tests that can confine the deformation in a limited region have been pursued. In this thesis, a detailed investigation of thermal stability and mechanical deformation behavior of Zr/Hf-based BMGs is conducted. First, systematic studies had been implemented to understand the influence of relative compositions of Zr and Hf on thermal stability and mechanical property evolution. Second, shear band evolution under indentations were investigated experimentally and theoretically. Three kinds of indentation studies were conducted on BMGs in the current study. (a) Nano-indentation to determine the mechanical properties as a function of Hf/Zr content. (b) Static Vickers indentation on bonded split specimens to investigate the shear band evolution characteristics beneath the indention. (c) Dynamic Vickers indentation on bonded split specimens to investigate the influence of strain rate. It was found in the present work that gradually replacing Zr by Hf remarkably increases the density and improves the mechanical properties. However, a slight decrease in glass forming ability with increasing Hf content has also been identified through thermodynamic analysis although all the materials in the current study were still found to be amorphous. Many indentation studies have revealed only a few shear bands surrounding the indent on the top surface of the specimen. This small number of shear bands cannot account for the large plastic deformation beneath the indentations. Therefore, a bonded interface technique has been used to observe the slip-steps due to shear band evolution. Vickers indentations were performed along the interface of the bonded split specimen at increasing loads. At small indentation loads, the plastic deformation was primarily accommodated by semi-circular primary shear bands surrounding the indentation. At higher loads, secondary and tertiary shear bands were formed inside this plastic zone. A modified expanding cavity model was then used to predict the plastic zone size characterized by the shear bands and to identify the stress components responsible for the evolution of the various types of shear bands. The applicability of various hardness—yield-strength ( H −σγ ) relationships currently available in the literature for bulk metallic glasses (BMGs) is also investigated. Experimental data generated on ZrHf-based BMGs in the current study and those available elsewhere on other BMG compositions were used to validate the models. A modified expanding-cavity model, employed in earlier work, was extended to propose a new H −σγ relationship. Unlike previous models, the proposed model takes into account not only the indenter geometry and the material properties, but also the pressure sensitivity index of the BMGs. The influence of various model parameters is systematically analyzed. It is shown that there is a good correlation between the model predictions and the experimental data for a wide range of BMG compositions. Under dynamic Vickers indentation, a decrease in indentation hardness at high loading rate was observed compared to static indentation hardness. It was observed that at equivalent loads, dynamic indentations produced more severe deformation features on the loading surface than static indentations. Different from static indentation, two sets of widely spaced semi-circular shear bands with two different curvatures were observed. The observed shear band pattern and the strain rate softening in indentation hardness were rationalized based on the variations in the normal stress on the slip plane, the strain rate of shear and the temperature rise associated with the indentation deformation. Finally, a coupled thermo-mechanical model is proposed that utilizes a momentum diffusion mechanism for the growth and evolution of the final spacing of shear bands. The influence of strain rate, confinement pressure and critical shear displacement on the shear band spacing, temperature rise within the shear band, and the associated variation in flow stress have been captured and analyzed. Consistent with the known pressure sensitive behavior of BMGs, the current model clearly captures the influence of the normal stress in the formation of shear bands. The normal stress not only reduces the time to reach critical shear displacement but also causes a significant temperature rise during the shear band formation. Based on this observation, the variation of shear band spacing in a typical dynamic indentation test has been rationalized. The temperature rise within a shear band can be in excess of 2000K at high strain rate and high confinement pressure conditions. The associated drop in viscosity and flow stress may explain the observed decrease in fracture strength and indentation hardness. The above investigations provide valuable insight into the deformation behavior of BMGs under static and dynamic loading conditions. The shear band patterns observed in the above indentation studies can be helpful to understand and model the deformation features under complex loading scenarios such as the interaction of a penetrator with armor. Future work encompasses (1) extending and modifying the coupled thermo-mechanical model to account for the temperature rise in quasistatic deformation; and (2) expanding this model to account for the microstructural variation-crystallization and free volume migration associated with the deformation.