933 resultados para causal chain analysis


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Brazil was the first country in Latin America to establish and regulate this type of reserve, and there are currently more than 700 Private Nature Heritage Reserves (RPPN in Portuguese) officially recognized by either federal or state environmental agencies. Together, these RPPN protect more than a half million hectares of land in the country. The coastal forests in the southern part of Bahia State extend 100 to 200 km inland, gradually changing in physiognomy as they occupy the dryer inland areas. The coastal forest has been subjected to intense deforestation, and currently occupies less than 10% of its original area. For this work the creation processes of the RPPN were consulted to obtain the data creation time, size of property, the condition of the remaining forest, succession chain and the last paid tax. After that, interviews with the owners were made to confirm this data. Sixteen RPPN have been established in this region until 2005. Their sizes vary from 4.7 to 800 ha. Ten of these RPPN are located within state or federal conservation areas or their buffer zones. In spite of the numerous national and international conservation strategies and environmental policies focused on the region, the present situation of the cocoa zone is threatening the conservation of the region's natural resources. The establishment of private reserves in the cocoa region could conceivably improve these conservation efforts. This type of reserve can be established under a uniform system supported by federal legislation, and could count on private organizations.

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The purpose of this academic economic geographical dissertation is to study and describe how competitiveness in the Finnish paper industry has developed during 2001–2008. During these years, the Finnish paper industry has faced economically challenging times. This dissertation attempts to fill the existing gap between theoretical and empirical discussions concerning economic geographical issues in the paper industry. The main research questions are: How have the supply chain costs and margins developed during 2001–2008? How do sales prices, transportation, and fixed and variable costs correlate with gross margins in a spatial context? The research object for this case study is a typical large Finnish paper mill that exports over 90 % of its production. The economic longitudinal research data were obtained from the case mill’s controlled economic system and, correlation (R2) analysis was used as the main research method. The time series data cover monthly economic and manufacturing observations from the mill from 2001 to 2008. The study reveals the development of prices, costs and transportation in the case mill, and it shows how economic variables correlate with the paper mills’ gross margins in various markets in Europe. The research methods of economic geography offer perspectives that pay attention to the spatial (market) heterogeneity. This type of research has been quite scarce in the research tradition of Finnish economic geography and supply chain management. This case study gives new insight into the research tradition of Finnish economic geography and supply chain management and its applications. As a concrete empirical result, this dissertation states that the competitive advantages of the Finnish paper industry were significantly weakened during 2001–2008 by low paper prices, costly manufacturing and expensive transportation. Statistical analysis expose that, in several important markets, transport costs lower gross margins as much as decreasing paper prices, which was a new finding. Paper companies should continuously pay attention to lowering manufacturing and transporting costs to achieve more profitable economic performance. The location of a mill being far from markets clearly has an economic impact on paper manufacturing, as paper demand is decreasing and oversupply is pressuring paper prices down. Therefore, market and economic forecasting in the paper industry is advantageous at the country and product levels while simultaneously taking into account the economic geographically specific dimensions.

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In any decision making under uncertainties, the goal is mostly to minimize the expected cost. The minimization of cost under uncertainties is usually done by optimization. For simple models, the optimization can easily be done using deterministic methods.However, many models practically contain some complex and varying parameters that can not easily be taken into account using usual deterministic methods of optimization. Thus, it is very important to look for other methods that can be used to get insight into such models. MCMC method is one of the practical methods that can be used for optimization of stochastic models under uncertainty. This method is based on simulation that provides a general methodology which can be applied in nonlinear and non-Gaussian state models. MCMC method is very important for practical applications because it is a uni ed estimation procedure which simultaneously estimates both parameters and state variables. MCMC computes the distribution of the state variables and parameters of the given data measurements. MCMC method is faster in terms of computing time when compared to other optimization methods. This thesis discusses the use of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods for optimization of Stochastic models under uncertainties .The thesis begins with a short discussion about Bayesian Inference, MCMC and Stochastic optimization methods. Then an example is given of how MCMC can be applied for maximizing production at a minimum cost in a chemical reaction process. It is observed that this method performs better in optimizing the given cost function with a very high certainty.

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The adoption of a proper traceability system is being incorporated into meat production practices as a method of gaining consumer confidence. The various partners operating in the chain of meat production can be considered a social network, and they have the common goal of generating a communication process that can ensure each characteristic of the product, including safety. This study aimed to select the most appropriate meat traceability system “from farm to fork” that could be applied to Brazilian beef and pork production for international trade. The research was done in three steps. The first used the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) for selecting the best on-farm livestock traceability. In the second step, the actors in the meat production chain were identified to build a framework and defined each role in the network. In the third step, the selection of the traceability system was done. Results indicated that with an electronic traceability system, it is possible to acquire better connections between the links in the chain and to provide the means for managing uncertainties by creating structures that facilitate information flow more efficiently.

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ABSTRACT The present study aims to present the main concepts of the sugarcane straw to energy planning. Throughout the study, the subject is contextualized highlighting broader aspects of sustainability, which is considered the main driver towards agro-energy modernization. Concerning sugarcane straw, we first evaluated its availability regarding technical and economic aspects, and then it summarized the straw production chain for energy supply purposes. As a proposal to support agro-energy planning, it is presented some spatial tools that have been barely used in the Brazilian energy planning context so far. Therefore, working on straw to electricity associated with supply chain basis, we developed a conceptual model to spatially assess this bioenergy system. Using the model proposed, it is described the whole supply chain at state level, which accounted the potential of a single mill to explore straw, as well as main costs associated with straw acquisition, investments on the straw recovery routes and electricity transmission. Bearing these concepts in mind, it is fully believed that spatial analysis can bring important information for agro-energy action plans.

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A molecular epidemiological study was performed with Babesia bigemina isolates from five geographical regions of Brazil. The genetic analysis was done with random amplification of polymorphic DNA (RAPD), repetitive extragenic palindromic elements-polymerase chain reaction (REP-PCR) and enterobacterial repetitive intergenic consensus sequences-polymerase chain reaction (ERIC-PCR) that showed genetic polymorphism between these isolates and generated fingerprinting. In RAPD, ILO872 and ILO876 primers were able to detect at least one fingerprinting for each B. bigemina isolate. The amplification of B. bigemina DNA fragments by REP-PCR and ERIC-PCR gave evidence for the presence in this haemoprotozoan of the sequences described previously in microorganisms of the bacterial kingdom. For the first time it was demonstrated that both techniques can be used for genetic analysis of a protozoan parasite, although the ERIC-PCR was more discriminatory than REP-PCR. The dendogram with similarity coefficient among isolates showed two clusters and one subcluster. The Northeastern and Mid-Western isolates showed the greatest genetic diversity, while the Southeastern and Southern isolates were the closest. The antigenic analysis was done through indirect fluorescent antibody technique and Western blotting using a panel of monoclonal antibodies directed against epitopes on the merozoite membrane surface, rhoptries and membrane of infected erythrocytes. As expected, the merozoite variable surface antigens, major surface antigen (MSA)-1 and MSA-2 showed antigenic diversity. However, B cell epitopes on rhoptries and infected erythrocytes were conserved among all isolates studied. In this study it was possible to identify variable and conserved antigens, which had already been described as potential immunogens. Considering that an attenuated Babesia clone used as immunogen selected populations capable of evading the immunity induced by this vaccine, it is necessary to evaluate more deeply the cross-protection conferred by genetically more distant Brazilian B. bigemina isolates and make an evaluation of the polymorphism degree of variable antigens such as MSA-1 and MSA-2.

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Twelve Brazilian isolates and one reference vaccine strain of avian infectious bronchitis virus (IBV) were propagated in embryonating chicken eggs. The entire S1 glycoprotein gene of these viruses was analysed by reverse-transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction and restriction fragment length polymorphism (RT-PCR-RFLP), using the restriction enzymes HaeIII, XcmI and BstyI. The RFLP patterns led to the classification of these isolates into five distinct genotypes: A, B, C, D and Massachusetts. Five of twelve isolates were grouped in Massachusetts genotype and the remaining seven viruses were classified into four distinct genotypes: A (2), B (2), C (2) or D (1). Such genotyping classification agreed with previous immunological analysis for most of these viruses, highlighting the occurrence of a relevant variability among the IBV strains that are circulating in Brazilian commercial poultry flocks.

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The purpose of the study is to determine general features of the supply chain performance management system, to assess the current state of performance management in the case company mills and to make proposals for improvement – how the future state of performance management system would look like. The study covers four phases which consist of theory and case company parts. Theoretical review gives understanding about performance management and measurement. Current state analysis assesses the current state of performance management in the mills. Results and proposals for improvement are derived from current state analysis and finally the conclusions with answers to research questions are presented. Supply chain performance management system consists of five areas: perfor-mance measurement and metrics, action plans, performance tracking, performance dialogue and rewards, consequences and actions. The result of the study revealed that all mills were quite average level in performance management and there is a room for improvement. Created performance improvement matrix served as a tool in assessing current performance management and could work also as a tool in the future in mapping the current state after transformation process. Limited harmonization was revealed as there were different ways to work and manage performance in the mills. Lots of good ideas existed though actions are needed to make a progress. There is also need to harmonize KPI structure.

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Conidiobolomycosis is a granulomatous disease caused by the fungus Conidiobolus spp. in humans and animals. Traditional technique for diagnosis of the disease is isolation of the agent associated with the presence of typical clinical signs and pathological conditions. The aim of this study was to describe the development of a specific polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test for Conidiobolus lamprauges to detect the fungus in clinical samples. Samples from suspected animals were collected and submitted to isolation, histopathological analysis and amplification by PCR. DNA from tissues was subjected to PCR with fungi universal primers 18S rDNA gene, and specific primers were designed based on the same gene in C. lamprauges that generated products of about 540 bp and 222 bp respectively. The culture was positive in 26.6% of clinical samples. The PCR technique for C. lamprauges showed amplification of DNA from fresh tissues (80%) and paraffin sections (44.4%). In conclusion, the PCR technique described here demonstrated a high sensitivity and specificity for detection of fungal DNA in tissue samples, providing a tool for the rapid diagnosis of C. lamprauges.

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The rickettsia Anaplasma marginale is considered the main agent of bovine anaplasmosis. Due the nonspecific clinical signs of the anaplasmosis, the diagnosis of infection depends of laboratory confirmation. In recent years, molecular diagnostic methods have been used to detect A. marginale in cattle. However, the existence of a large number of assays of different sensitivity and cost makes the choice of an appropriate test difficult. In the present study, a real-time Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) based on the msp5 target gene was quantitatively assessed and compared to an end point PCR. Both reactions were subjected to sensitivity and specificity evaluation using plasmid DNA and samples from cattle experimentally infected with A. marginale. A comparative field trial of the tests was carried out using samples of cattle from a stable enzootic area for A. marginale. The real-time PCR showed a higher sensitivity than the end point PCR. This reaction (i.e. real-time PCR) was able to detect one copy of the msp5 gene in 100 ηg of plasmidial DNA, and more than 80% of its results were positive among experimentally infected animals seven days after infection. In addition, based on in silico analysis, the real-time PCR evaluated in the present study appears to be useful for the detection of A. ovis.

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Magellanic penguins (Spheniscus magellanicus) routinely migrate from their breeding colonies to Southern Brazil often contracting diseases during this migration, notably avian malaria, which has been already reported in Brazil and throughout the world. Detection of Plasmodium spp. in blood smears is the routine diagnostic method of avian malaria, however it has a low sensitivity rate when compared to molecular methods. Considering the negative impact of avian malaria on penguins, the aim of this study was to detect the presence of Plasmodium spp. in Magellanic penguins using Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) and by verifying clinical, hematological, and biochemical alterations in blood samples as well as to verify the likely prognosis in response to infection. Blood samples were obtained from 75 penguins to determine packed cell volume (PCV), red blood cell (RBC) and white blood cell (WBC) counts, mean corpuscular volume (MCV), uric acid, total protein, albumin, globulin and aspartate aminotransferase (AST) activity levels. Whole blood samples were used for PCR assays. Plasmodium spp. was detected in 32.0% of the specimens using PCR and in 29.3% using microscopic analyses. Anorexia, diarrhea and neurological disorders were more frequent in penguins with malaria and a significant weight difference between infected and non-infected penguins was detected. PCV and MCV rates showed no significant difference. RBC and WBC counts were lower in animals with avian malaria and leukopenia was present in some penguins. Basophil and lymphocyte counts were lower in infected penguins along with high monocyte counts. There was no significant difference in AST activities between infected and non-infected animals. There was a significant increase in uric acid values, however a decrease in albumin values was observed in infected penguins. Based on this study, we concluded that Plasmodium spp. occurs in Magellanic penguins of rehabilitation centers in Southeastern Brazil, compromising the weight of infected animals with clinical alterations appearing in severe cases of this disease. It was also noted that, although the hematological abnormalities presented by these animals may not have been conclusive, leukopenia, monocytosis and the decrease of basophils and lymphocytes revealed an unfavorable prognosis, and Plasmodium spp. infections may progress with elevated uric acid concentration and low albumin levels.

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Emerging markets have come to play a significant role in the world, not only due to their strong economic growth but because they have been able to foster an increasing number of innovative high technology oriented firms. However, as the markets continue to change and develop, there remain many companies in emerging markets that struggle with their competitiveness and innovativeness. To improve competitive capabilities, many scholars have come to favor interfirm cooperation, which is perceived to help companies access new knowledge and complementary resources and, by so doing, enables them to catch up quickly with Western competitors. Regardless of numerous attempts by strategic management scholars, the research field remains very fragmented and lacks understanding on how and when interfirm cooperation contributes to firm performance and competiveness in emerging markets. Furthermore, the reasons why interfirm R&D sometimes succeeds but fails at other times frequently remain unidentified. This thesis combines the extant literature on competitive and cooperative strategy, dynamic capabilities, and R&D cooperation while studying interfirm R&D relationships in and between Russian manufacturing companies. Employing primary survey data, the thesis presents numerous novel findings regarding the effect of R&D cooperation and different types of R&D partner on firms’ exploration and exploitation performance. Utilizing a competitive strategy framework enables these effects to be explained in more detail, and especially why interfirm cooperation, regardless of its potential, has had a modest effect on the general competitiveness of emerging market firms. This thesis contributes especially to the strategic management literature and presents a more holistic perspective on the usefulness of cooperative strategy in emerging markets. It provides a framework through which it is possible to assess the potential impacts of different R&D cooperation partners and to clarify the causal relationships between cooperation, performance, and long term competitiveness.

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Two different pathogenetic mechanisms are proposed for colorectal cancers. One, the so-called "classic pathway", is the most common and depends on multiple additive mutational events (germline and/or somatic) in tumor suppressor genes and oncogenes, frequently involving chromosomal deletions in key genomic regions. Methodologically this pathway is recognizable by the phenomenon of loss of heterozygosity. On the other hand, the "mutator pathway" depends on early mutational loss of the mismatch repair system (germline and/or somatic) leading to accelerated accumulation of gene mutations in critical target genes and progression to malignancy. Methodologically this second pathway is recognizable by the phenomenon of microsatellite instability. The distinction between these pathways seems to be more than academic since there is evidence that the tumors emerging from the mutator pathway have a better prognosis. We report here a very simple methodology based on a set of tri-, tetra- and pentanucleotide repeat microsatellites allowing the simultaneous study of microsatellite instability and loss of heterozygosity which could allocate 70% of the colorectal tumors to the classic or the mutator pathway. The ease of execution of the methodology makes it suitable for routine clinical typing

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Nowadays global business trends force the adoption of innovative ICTs into the supply chain management (SCM). Particularly, the RFID technology is on high demand among SCM professionals due to its business advantages such as improving of accuracy and veloc-ity of SCM processes which lead to decrease of operational costs. Nevertheless, a question of the RFID technology impact on the efficiency of warehouse processes in the SCM re-mains open. The goal of the present study is to experiment the possibility of improvement order picking velocity in a warehouse of a big logistics company with the use of the RFID technology. In order to achieve this goal the following objectives have been developed: 1) Defining the scope of the RFID technology applications in the SCM; 2) Justification of the RFID technology impact on the SCM processes; 3) Defining a place of the warehouse order picking process in the SCM; 4) Identification and systematization of existing meth-ods of order picking velocity improvement; 5) Choosing of the study object and gathering of the empirical data about number of orders, number of hours spent per each order line daily during 5 months; 6) Processing and analysis of the empirical data; 7) Conclusion about the impact of the RFID technology on the speed of order picking process. As a result of the research it has been found that the speed of the order picking processes has not been changed as time has gone after the RFID adoption. It has been concluded that in order to achieve a positive effect in the speed of order picking process with the use of the RFID technology it is necessary to simultaneously implement changes in logistics and organizational management in 3PL logistics companies. Practical recommendations have been forwarded to the management of the company for further investigation and procedure.

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An appropriate supplier selection and its profound effects on increasing the competitive advantage of companies has been widely discussed in supply chain management (SCM) literature. By raising environmental awareness among companies and industries they attach more importance to sustainable and green activities in selection procedures of raw material providers. The current thesis benefits from data envelopment analysis (DEA) technique to evaluate the relative efficiency of suppliers in the presence of carbon dioxide (CO2) emission for green supplier selection. We incorporate the pollution of suppliers as an undesirable output into DEA. However, to do so, two conventional DEA model problems arise: the lack of the discrimination power among decision making units (DMUs) and flexibility of the inputs and outputs weights. To overcome these limitations, we use multiple criteria DEA (MCDEA) as one alternative. By applying MCDEA the number of suppliers which are identified as efficient will be decreased and will lead to a better ranking and selection of the suppliers. Besides, in order to compare the performance of the suppliers with an ideal supplier, a “virtual” best practice supplier is introduced. The presence of the ideal virtual supplier will also increase the discrimination power of the model for a better ranking of the suppliers. Therefore, a new MCDEA model is proposed to simultaneously handle undesirable outputs and virtual DMU. The developed model is applied for green supplier selection problem. A numerical example illustrates the applicability of the proposed model.