Data-division-specific robustness and power of randomization tests for ABAB designs

This study deals with the statistical properties of a randomization test applied to an ABAB design in cases where the desirable random assignment of the points of change in phase is not possible. In order to obtain information about each possible data division we carried out a conditional Monte Carlo simulation with 100,000 samples for each systematically chosen triplet. Robustness and power are studied under several experimental conditions: different autocorrelation levels and different effect sizes, as well as different phase lengths determined by the points of change. Type I error rates were distorted by the presence of autocorrelation for the majority of data divisions. Satisfactory Type II error rates were obtained only for large treatment effects. The relationship between the lengths of the four phases appeared to be an important factor for the robustness and the power of the randomization test.

Distribution and risk factors for Plasmodium and helminth co-infections: a cross-sectional survey among children in Bagamoyo district, coastal region of Tanzania.

BACKGROUND: Plasmodium and soil transmitted helminth infections (STH) are a major public health problem, particularly among children. There are conflicting findings on potential association between these two parasites. This study investigated the Plasmodium and helminth co-infections among children aged 2 months to 9 years living in Bagamoyo district, coastal region of Tanzania. METHODS: A community-based cross-sectional survey was conducted among 1033 children. Stool, urine and blood samples were examined using a broad set of quality controlled diagnostic methods for common STH (Ascaris lumbricoides, hookworm, Strongyloides stercoralis, Enterobius vermicularis, Trichuris trichura), schistosoma species and Wuchereria bancrofti. Blood slides and malaria rapid diagnostic tests (mRDTs) were utilized for Plasmodium diagnosis. RESULTS: Out of 992 children analyzed, the prevalence of Plasmodium infection was 13% (130/992), helminth 28.5% (283/992); 5% (50/992) had co-infection with Plasmodium and helminth. The prevalence rate of Plasmodium, specific STH and co-infections increased significantly with age (p < 0.001), with older children mostly affected except for S. stercoralis monoinfection and co-infections. Spatial variations of co-infection prevalence were observed between and within villages. There was a trend for STH infections to be associated with Plasmodium infection [OR adjusted for age group 1.4, 95% CI (1.0-2.1)], which was more marked for S. stercoralis (OR = 2.2, 95% CI (1.1-4.3). Age and not schooling were risk factors for Plasmodium and STH co-infection. CONCLUSION: The findings suggest that STH and Plasmodium infections tend to occur in the same children, with increasing prevalence of co-infection with age. This calls for an integrated approach such as using mass chemotherapy with dual effect (e.g., ivermectin) coupled with improved housing, sanitation and hygiene for the control of both parasitic infections.

Tunnusluku- ja tuottohistoria-pohjaisten sijoitusstrategioiden toimivuus ja sykliriippuvuus suomalaisilla osakemarkkinoilla

Tutkielman tavoitteena oli analysoida tunnuslukuihin ja tuottohistoriaan perustuvien sijoitusstrategioiden toimivuutta ja sykliriippuvuutta HEX:iin listatuista yrityksistä koostuvalla aineistolla. Tutkitut sijoitusstrategiat perustuivat arvostuskertoimien, betan ja menneiden tuottojen käyttöön analysointivälineinä käytettyjen kvintiiliportfolioiden muodostamiskriteereinä. Kontribuutiota tutkimukseen pyrittiin luomaan tarkastelemalla ensimmäistä kertaa suhdannesyklin vaikutuksia edellä mainittujen sijoitusstrategioiden toimivuuteen tutkimusaineistolla, joka kattoi useita suhdannesyklejä (pisimmillään vuodet 1991 - 2002). Suhdannesyklien käänteiden määrittämiseen käytettiin ostopäälliköiden indeksiä (PMI-indeksi), jonka on todettu toimivan hyvin esimerkiksi pörssikurssien kehitystä ennakoivana indikaattorina. Tulokset osoittivat P/E-, P/B-, EV/EBIT-, EV/EBITDA-, beta- ja momentumanomalioiden esiintyneen myös suomalaisilla osakemarkkinoilla vuosina 1991 – 2002. Tutkimuksessa saatiin näyttöä myös tuottohistoriaan pohjautuvien momentum-strategian ja winner-loser –strategian toimivuudesta. Näistä etenkin jälkimmäinen oli voimakkaasti sykliriippuvaista. Näiden tulosten mukaan suomalaiset osakemarkkinat eivät olisi käytetyillä tarkasteluperiodilla olleet edes heikosti tehokkaat, ts. osakemarkkinoiden keskimääräinen tuottotaso olisi ollut mahdollista ylittää pelkkään kurssihistoriaan perustuvien sijoitusstrategioiden avulla.

Randomization tests for ABAB designs: Comparing-data-division-specific and common distributions

Monte Carlo simulations were used to generate data for ABAB designs of different lengths. The points of change in phase are randomly determined before gathering behaviour measurements, which allows the use of a randomization test as an analytic technique. Data simulation and analysis can be based either on data-division-specific or on common distributions. Following one method or another affects the results obtained after the randomization test has been applied. Therefore, the goal of the study was to examine these effects in more detail. The discrepancies in these approaches are obvious when data with zero treatment effect are considered and such approaches have implications for statistical power studies. Data-division-specific distributions provide more detailed information about the performance of the statistical technique.

A novel approach to the determination of clinical decision thresholds

Our objective was to determine the test and treatment thresholds for common acute primary care conditions. We presented 200 clinicians with a series of web-based clinical vignettes, describing patients with possible influenza, acute coronary syndrome (ACS), pneumonia, deep vein thrombosis (DVT) and urinary tract infection (UTI). We randomly varied the probability of disease and asked whether the clinician wanted to rule out disease, order tests or rule in disease. By randomly varying the probability, we obtained clinical decisions across a broad range of disease probabilities that we used to create threshold curves. For influenza, the test (4.5% vs 32%, p<0.001) and treatment (55% vs 68%, p=0.11) thresholds were lower for US compared with Swiss physicians. US physicians had somewhat higher test (3.8% vs 0.7%, p=0.107) and treatment (76% vs 58%, p=0.005) thresholds for ACS than Swiss physicians. For both groups, the range between test and treatment thresholds was greater for ACS than for influenza (which is sensible, given the consequences of incorrect diagnosis). For pneumonia, US physicians had a trend towards higher test thresholds and lower treatment thresholds (48% vs 64%, p=0.076) than Swiss physicians. The DVT and UTI scenarios did not provide easily interpretable data, perhaps due to poor wording of the vignettes. We have developed a novel approach for determining decision thresholds. We found important differences in thresholds for US and Swiss physicians that may be a function of differences in healthcare systems. Our results can also guide development of clinical decision rules and guidelines.

Measuring individuals' response quality in self-administered psychological tests : an introduction to Gendre's functional method

The functional method is a new test theory using a new scoring method that assumes complexity in test structure, and thus takes into account every correlation between factors and items. The main specificity of the functional method is to model test scores by multiple regression instead of estimating them by using simplistic sums of points. In order to proceed, the functional method requires the creation of hyperspherical measurement space, in which item responses are expressed by their correlation with orthogonal factors. This method has three main qualities. First, measures are expressed in the absolute metric of correlations; therefore, items, scales and persons are expressed in the same measurement space using the same single metric. Second, factors are systematically orthogonal and without errors, which is optimal in order to predict other outcomes. Such predictions can be performed to estimate how one would answer to other tests, or even to model one's response strategy if it was perfectly coherent. Third, the functional method provides measures of individuals' response validity (i.e., control indices). Herein, we propose a standard procedure in order to identify whether test results are interpretable and to exclude invalid results caused by various response biases based on control indices.

Time-Varying Benefits of International Diversification for Finnish Investor: Country-Specific Strategy Concentrating on Emerging Markets

The main objective of this study is to investigate whether the Finnish investors’ country-specific strategy concentrating on emerging markets provides diversification benefits. We also analyze whether the benefits of international diversification has been diminished after periods of high volatility caused by different market crisis. The objective is investigated with three methods: Correlation coefficients, rolling correlations added with OLS trend-lines and Box’s M statistic. All the empirical tests are analyzed and calculated with logarithmic returns of weekly time series data from Friday closing values between January 1995 and December 2007. The number of weekly observations is 678. The data type is total return indices of different countries. Data is collected from DataStream and provided by Datastream Financial. Countries investigated are Finland, Argentina, Brazil, Chile, China, India, Mexico, Poland, Russia, South Africa, South Korea, Thailand and Turkey. The current data is quoted both in U.S. Dollars and local currencies. The empirical results of this thesis show that the correlation coefficients are time-varying across Finland and 12 emerging market countries. Although the correlations have risen from 1995 to 2007, there can be found sub-periods where the correlation has declined from earlier period. The results also indicate that a Finnish investor constructing a portfolio of emerging market countries cannot rely on the correlation coefficients estimated from historical data because of the instability of correlation matrices.

Dietary intake according to gender and education : a twenty-year trend in a Swiss adult population

We assessed trends in dietary intake according to gender and education using repeated cross-sectional, population-based surveys conducted between 1993 and 2012 in Geneva, Switzerland (17,263 participants, 52.0 ± 10.6 years, 48% male). In 1993-1999, higher educated men had higher monounsaturated fatty acids (MUFA), carotene and vitamin D intakes than lower educated men, and the differences decreased in 2006-2012. In 1993-1999, higher educated women had higher fiber, iron, carotene, vitamin D and alcohol intakes than lower educated women, and the differences decreased in 2006-2012. Total energy, polyunsaturated fatty acids, retinol and alcohol intakes decreased, while mono/disaccharides, MUFA and carotene intake increased in both genders. Lower educated men had stronger decreases in saturated fatty acid (SFA) and calcium intakes than higher educated men: multivariate-adjusted slope and 95% confidence interval -0.11 (-0.15; -0.06) vs. -0.03 (-0.08; 0.02) g/day/year for SFA and -5.2 (-7.8; -2.7) vs. -1.03 (-3.8; 1.8) mg/day/year for calcium, p for interaction <0.05. Higher educated women had a greater decrease in iron intake than lower educated women: -0.03 (-0.04; -0.02) vs. -0.01 (-0.02; 0.00) mg/day/year, p for interaction = 0.002. We conclude that, in Switzerland, dietary intake evolved similarly between 1993 and 2012 in both educational groups. Educational differences present in 1993 persisted in 2012.