Three decades of global methane sources and sinks

Methane is an important greenhouse gas, responsible for about 20 of the warming induced by long-lived greenhouse gases since pre-industrial times. By reacting with hydroxyl radicals, methane reduces the oxidizing capacity of the atmosphere and generates ozone in the troposphere. Although most sources and sinks of methane have been identified, their relative contributions to atmospheric methane levels are highly uncertain. As such, the factors responsible for the observed stabilization of atmospheric methane levels in the early 2000s, and the renewed rise after 2006, remain unclear. Here, we construct decadal budgets for methane sources and sinks between 1980 and 2010, using a combination of atmospheric measurements and results from chemical transport models, ecosystem models, climate chemistry models and inventories of anthropogenic emissions. The resultant budgets suggest that data-driven approaches and ecosystem models overestimate total natural emissions. We build three contrasting emission scenarios � which differ in fossil fuel and microbial emissions � to explain the decadal variability in atmospheric methane levels detected, here and in previous studies, since 1985. Although uncertainties in emission trends do not allow definitive conclusions to be drawn, we show that the observed stabilization of methane levels between 1999 and 2006 can potentially be explained by decreasing-to-stable fossil fuel emissions, combined with stable-to-increasing microbial emissions. We show that a rise in natural wetland emissions and fossil fuel emissions probably accounts for the renewed increase in global methane levels after 2006, although the relative contribution of these two sources remains uncertain.

Warm Conveyor Belts in the ERA-Interim Dataset (1979–2010): Part I: Climatology and Potential Vorticity Evolution

A global climatology of warm conveyor belts (WCBs) is presented for the years 1979–2010, based on trajectories calculated with Interim ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) data. WCB trajectories are identified as strongly ascending air parcels (600 hPa in 2 days) near extratropical cyclones. Corroborating earlier studies, WCBs are more frequent during winter than summer and they ascend preferentially in the western ocean basins between 25° and 50° latitude. Before ascending, WCB trajectories typically approach from the subtropics in summer and from more midlatitude regions in winter. Considering humidity, cloud water, and potential temperature along WCBs confirms that they experience strong condensation and integrated latent heating during the ascent (typically >20 K). Liquid and ice water contents along WCBs peak at about 700 and 550 hPa, respectively. The mean potential vorticity (PV) evolution shows typical tropospheric values near 900 hPa, followed by an increase to almost 1 potential vorticity unit (PVU) at 700 hPa, and a decrease to less than 0.5 PVU at 300 hPa. These low PV values in the upper troposphere constitute significant negative anomalies with amplitudes of 1–3 PVU, which can strongly influence the downstream flow. Considering the low-level diabatic PV production, (i) WCBs starting at low latitudes (<40°) are unlikely to attain high PV (due to weak planetary vorticity) although they exhibit the strongest latent heating, and (ii) for those ascending at higher latitudes, a strong vertical heating gradient and high absolute vorticity are both important. This study therefore provides climatological insight into the cloud diabatic formation of significant positive and negative PV anomalies in the extratropical lower and upper troposphere, respectively.

Antarctic Volcanic Flux Ratios from Law Dome Ice Cores

Explosive volcanic eruptions can inject large quantities of sulphur dioxide into the stratosphere. The aerosols that result from oxidation of the sulphur dioxide can produce significant cooling of the troposphere by reflecting or absorbing solar radiation. It is possible to obtain an estimate of the relative stratospheric sulphur aerosol concentration produced by different volcanoes by comparing sulphuric acid fluxes determined by analysis of polar ice cores. Here, we use a non-sea-salt sulphate time series derived from three well-dated Law Dome ice cores to investigate sulphuric acid flux ratios for major eruptions over the period AD 1301-1995. We use additional data from other cores to investigate systematic spatial variability in the ratios. Only for the Kuwae eruption (Law Dome ice date AD 1459.5) was the H2SO4 flux larger than that deposited by Tambora (Law Dome ice date AD 1816.7).

An Ice-Core Proxy for Antarctic Circumpolar Zonal Wind Intensity

Using US National Centers for Environmental Prediction/US National Center for Atmospheric Research re-analysis data, we investigate the relationships between crustal ion (nssCa(2+)) concentrations from three West Antarctic ice cores, namely, Siple Dome (SD), ITASE00-1 (IT001) and ITASE01-5 (IT015), and primary components of the climate system, namely, air pressure/geopotential height, zonal (u) and meridional (v) wind strength. Linear correlation analyses between nssCa(2+) concentrations and both air-pressure and wind fields for the period of overlap between records indicate that the SD nssCa(2+) variation is positively correlated with spring circumpolar zonal wind, while IT001 nssCa(2+) has a positive correlation with circumpolar zonal wind throughout the year (r > 0.3, p < 0.01). Intensified Southern Westerlies circulation is conducive to transport of more crustal aerosols to both sites. Further correlation analyses between nssCa(2+) concentrations from SD and IT001 and atmospheric circulation suggest that the high inland plateau (represented by core IT001) is largely influenced by transport from the upper troposphere. IT015 nssCa(2+) is negatively correlated with westerly wind in October and November, suggesting that stronger westerly circulation may weaken the transport of crustal species to IT015. Correlations of nssCa(2+) from the three ice cores with the Antarctic Oscillation index are consistent with results developed from the wind-field investigation. In addition, calibration between nssCa(2+) concentration and the multivariate El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index shows that crustal species transport to IT001 is enhanced during strong ENSO events.

State of the Antarctic and Southern Ocean Climate System

This paper reviews developments in our understanding of the state of the Antarctic and Southern Ocean climate and its relation to the global climate system over the last few millennia. Climate over this and earlier periods has not been stable, as evidenced by the occurrence of abrupt changes in atmospheric circulation and temperature recorded in Antarctic ice core proxies for past climate. Two of the most prominent abrupt climate change events are characterized by intensification of the circumpolar westerlies (also known as the Southern Annular Mode) between similar to 6000 and 5000 years ago and since 1200-1000 years ago. Following the last of these is a period of major trans-Antarctic reorganization of atmospheric circulation and temperature between A. D. 1700 and 1850. The two earlier Antarctic abrupt climate change events appear linked to but predate by several centuries even more abrupt climate change in the North Atlantic, and the end of the more recent event is coincident with reorganization of atmospheric circulation in the North Pacific. Improved understanding of such events and of the associations between abrupt climate change events recorded in both hemispheres is critical to predicting the impact and timing of future abrupt climate change events potentially forced by anthropogenic changes in greenhouse gases and aerosols. Special attention is given to the climate of the past 200 years, which was recorded by a network of recently available shallow firn cores, and to that of the past 50 years, which was monitored by the continuous instrumental record. Significant regional climate changes have taken place in the Antarctic during the past 50 years. Atmospheric temperatures have increased markedly over the Antarctic Peninsula, linked to nearby ocean warming and intensification of the circumpolar westerlies. Glaciers are retreating on the peninsula, in Patagonia, on the sub-Antarctic islands, and in West Antarctica adjacent to the peninsula. The penetration of marine air masses has become more pronounced over parts of West Antarctica. Above the surface, the Antarctic troposphere has warmed during winter while the stratosphere has cooled year-round. The upper kilometer of the circumpolar Southern Ocean has warmed, Antarctic Bottom Water across a wide sector off East Antarctica has freshened, and the densest bottom water in the Weddell Sea has warmed. In contrast to these regional climate changes, over most of Antarctica, near-surface temperature and snowfall have not increased significantly during at least the past 50 years, and proxy data suggest that the atmospheric circulation over the interior has remained in a similar state for at least the past 200 years. Furthermore, the total sea ice cover around Antarctica has exhibited no significant overall change since reliable satellite monitoring began in the late 1970s, despite large but compensating regional changes. The inhomogeneity of Antarctic climate in space and time implies that recent Antarctic climate changes are due on the one hand to a combination of strong multidecadal variability and anthropogenic effects and, as demonstrated by the paleoclimate record, on the other hand to multidecadal to millennial scale and longer natural variability forced through changes in orbital insolation, greenhouse gases, solar variability, ice dynamics, and aerosols. Model projections suggest that over the 21st century the Antarctic interior will warm by 3.4 degrees +/- 1 degrees C, and sea ice extent will decrease by similar to 30%. Ice sheet models are not yet adequate enough to answer pressing questins about the effect of projected warming on mass balance and sea level. Considering the potentially major impacts of a warming climate on Antarctica, vigorous efforts are needed to better understand all aspects of the highly coupled Antarctic climate system as well as its influence on the Earth's climate and oceans.

Ice Core Paleovolcanic Records from the St. Elias Mountains, Yukon, Canada

We previously reported a record of regionally significant volcanic eruptions in the North Pacific using an ice core from Eclipse Icefield (St. Elias Mountains, Yukon, Canada). The acquisition of two new ice cores from Eclipse Icefield, along with the previously available Eclipse Icefield and Mount Logan Northwest Col ice cores, allows us to extend our record of North Pacific volcanism to 550 years before present using a suite of four ice cores spanning an elevation range of 3 - 5 km. Comparison of volcanic sulfate flux records demonstrates that the results are highly reproducible, especially for the largest eruptions such as Katmai ( A. D. 1912). Correlation of volcanic sulfate signals with historically documented eruptions indicates that at least one-third of the eruptions recorded in St. Elias ice cores are from Alaskan and Kamchatkan volcanoes. Although there are several moderately large ( volcanic explosivity index (VEI) >= 4) eruptions recorded in only one core from Eclipse Icefield, the use of multiple cores provides signals in at least one core from all known VEI >= 4 eruptions in Alaska and Kamchatka since A. D. 1829. Tephrochronological evidence from the Eclipse ice cores documents eruptions in Alaska (Westdahl, Redoubt, Trident, and Katmai), Kamchatka (Avachinsky, Kliuchevoskoi, and Ksudach), and Iceland (Hekla). Several unidentified tephra-bearing horizons, with available geochemical evidence suggesting Alaskan and Kamchatkan sources, were also found. We present a reconstruction of annual volcanic sulfate loading for the North Pacific troposphere based on our ice core data, and we provide a detailed assessment of the atmospheric and climatic effects of the Katmai eruption.

Microwave radiometer to retrieve temperature profiles from the surface to the stratopause

TEMPERA (TEMPERature RAdiometer) is a new ground-based radiometer which measures in a frequency range from 51–57 GHz radiation emitted by the atmosphere. With this instrument it is possible to measure temperature profiles from ground to about 50 km. This is the first ground-based instrument with the capability to retrieve temperature profiles simultaneously for the troposphere and stratosphere. The measurement is done with a filterbank in combination with a digital fast Fourier transform spectrometer. A hot load and a noise diode are used as stable calibration sources. The optics consist of an off-axis parabolic mirror to collect the sky radiation. Due to the Zeeman effect on the emission lines used, the maximum height for the temperature retrieval is about 50 km. The effect is apparent in the measured spectra. The performance of TEMPERA is validated by comparison with nearby radiosonde and satellite data from the Microwave Limb Sounder on the Aura satellite. In this paper we present the design and measurement method of the instrument followed by a description of the retrieval method, together with a validation of TEMPERA data over its first year, 2012.

A Lagrangian Analysis of the Northern Hemisphere Subtropical Jet

This study presents a 5-yr climatology of 7-day back trajectories started from the Northern Hemisphere subtropical jet. These trajectories provide insight into the seasonally and regionally varying angular momentum and potential vorticity characteristics of the air parcels that end up in the subtropical jet. The trajectories reveal preferred pathways of the air parcels that reach the subtropical jet from the tropics and the extratropics and allow estimation of the tropical and extratropical forcing of the subtropical jet. The back trajectories were calculated 7 days back in time and started every 6 h from December 2005 to November 2010 using the Interim European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) dataset as a basis. The trajectories were started from the 345-K isentrope in areas where the wind speed exceeded a seasonally varying threshold and where the wind shear was confined to upper levels. During winter, the South American continent, the Indian Ocean, and the Maritime Continent are preferred areas of ascent into the upper troposphere. From these areas, air parcels follow an anticyclonic pathway into the subtropical jet. During summer, the majority of air parcels ascend over the Himalayas and Southeast Asia. Angular momentum is overall well conserved for trajectories that reach the subtropical jet from the deep tropics. In winter and spring, the hemispheric-mean angular momentum loss amounts to approximately 6%; in summer, it amounts to approximately 18%; and in fall, it amounts to approximately 13%. This seasonal variability is confirmed using an independent potential vorticity–based method to estimate tropical and extratropical forcing of the subtropical jet.

Impact of geomagnetic excursions on atmospheric chemistry and dynamics

Geomagnetic excursions, i.e. short periods in time with much weaker geomagnetic fields and substantial changes in the position of the geomagnetic pole, occurred repeatedly in the Earth's history, e.g. the Laschamp event about 41 kyr ago. Although the next such excursion is certain to come, little is known about the timing and possible consequences for the state of the atmosphere and the ecosystems. Here we use the global chemistry climate model SOCOL-MPIOM to simulate the effects of geomagnetic excursions on atmospheric ionization, chemistry and dynamics. Our simulations show significantly increased concentrations of nitrogen oxides (NOx) in the entire stratosphere, especially over Antarctica (+15%), due to enhanced ionization by galactic cosmic rays. Hydrogen oxides (HOx) are also produced in greater amounts (up to +40%) in the tropical and subtropical lower stratosphere, while their destruction by reactions with enhanced NOx prevails over the poles and in high altitudes (by −5%). Stratospheric ozone concentrations decrease globally above 20 km by 1–2% and at the northern hemispheric tropopause by up to 5% owing to the accelerated NOx-induced destruction. A 5% increase is found in the southern lower stratosphere and troposphere. In response to these changes in ozone and the concomitant changes in atmospheric heating rates, the Arctic vortex intensifies in boreal winter, while the Antarctic vortex weakens in austral winter and spring. Surface wind anomalies show significant intensification of the southern westerlies at their poleward edge during austral winter and a pronounced northward shift in spring. Major impacts on the global climate seem unlikely.

Sideband characterization and atmospheric observations with various 340 GHz heterodyne receivers

This paper describes sideband response measurements and atmospheric observations with a double sideband and two Single Sideband (SSB) receiver prototypes developed for the multi-beam limb sounder instrument stratosphere-troposphere exchange and climate monitor radiometer. We first show an advanced Fourier-Transform Spectroscopy (FTS) method for sideband response and spurious signal characterization. We then present sideband response measurements of the different prototype receivers and we compare the results of the SSB receivers with sideband measurements by injecting a continuous wave signal into the upper and lower sidebands. The receivers were integrated into a total-power radiometer and atmospheric observations were carried out. The observed spectra were compared to forward model spectra to conclude on the sideband characteristics of the different receivers. The two sideband characterization methods show a high degree of agreement for both SSB receivers with various local oscillator settings. The measured sideband response was used to correct the forward model simulations. This improves the agreement with the atmospheric observations and explains spectral features caused by an unbalanced sideband response. The FTS method also allows to quantify the influence of spurious harmonic responses of the receiver.

Scientific rationale for Saturn׳s in situ exploration

Remote sensing observations meet some limitations when used to study the bulk atmospheric composition of the giant planets of our solar system. A remarkable example of the superiority of in situ probe measurements is illustrated by the exploration of Jupiter, where key measurements such as the determination of the noble gases׳ abundances and the precise measurement of the helium mixing ratio have only been made available through in situ measurements by the Galileo probe. This paper describes the main scientific goals to be addressed by the future in situ exploration of Saturn placing the Galileo probe exploration of Jupiter in a broader context and before the future probe exploration of the more remote ice giants. In situ exploration of Saturn׳s atmosphere addresses two broad themes that are discussed throughout this paper: first, the formation history of our solar system and second, the processes at play in planetary atmospheres. In this context, we detail the reasons why measurements of Saturn׳s bulk elemental and isotopic composition would place important constraints on the volatile reservoirs in the protosolar nebula. We also show that the in situ measurement of CO (or any other disequilibrium species that is depleted by reaction with water) in Saturn׳s upper troposphere may help constraining its bulk O/H ratio. We compare predictions of Jupiter and Saturn׳s bulk compositions from different formation scenarios, and highlight the key measurements required to distinguish competing theories to shed light on giant planet formation as a common process in planetary systems with potential applications to most extrasolar systems. In situ measurements of Saturn׳s stratospheric and tropospheric dynamics, chemistry and cloud-forming processes will provide access to phenomena unreachable to remote sensing studies. Different mission architectures are envisaged, which would benefit from strong international collaborations, all based on an entry probe that would descend through Saturn׳s stratosphere and troposphere under parachute down to a minimum of 10 bar of atmospheric pressure. We finally discuss the science payload required on a Saturn probe to match the measurement requirements.

Study of mineral dust entrainment in the planetary boundary layer by lidar depolarisation technique

Measurements on 27 June 2011 were performed over the Southern Iberian Peninsula at Granada EARLINET station, using active and passive remote sensing and airborne and surface in-situ data in order to study the entrainment processes between aerosols in the free troposphere and those in the planetary boundary layer (PBL). To this aim the temporal evolution of the lidar depolarisation, backscatter-related Angström exponent and potential temperature profiles were used in combination with the PBL contribution to the aerosol optical depth (AOD). Our results show that the mineral dust entrainment in the PBL was caused by the convective processes which ‘trapped’ the lofted mineral dust layer, distributing the mineral dust particles within the PBL. The temporal evolution of ground-based in-situ data evidenced the impact of this process at surface level. Finally, the amount of mineral dust in the atmospheric column available to be dispersed into the PBL was estimated by means of POLIPHON (Polarizing Lidar Photometer Networking). The dust mass concentration derived from POLIPHON was compared with the coarse-mode mass concentration retrieved with airborne in-situ measurements. Comparison shows differences below 50 µg/m³ (30% relative difference) indicating a relative good agreement between both techniques.

Comparison of co-located independent ground-based middle atmospheric wind and temperature measurements with numerical weather prediction models

High-resolution, ground-based and independent observations including co-located wind radiometer, lidar stations, and infrasound instruments are used to evaluate the accuracy of general circulation models and data-constrained assimilation systems in the middle atmosphere at northern hemisphere midlatitudes. Systematic comparisons between observations, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) operational analyses including the recent Integrated Forecast System cycles 38r1 and 38r2, the NASA’s Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) reanalyses, and the free-running climate Max Planck Institute–Earth System Model–Low Resolution (MPI-ESM-LR) are carried out in both temporal and spectral dom ains. We find that ECMWF and MERRA are broadly consistent with lidar and wind radiometer measurements up to ~40 km. For both temperature and horizontal wind components, deviations increase with altitude as the assimilated observations become sparser. Between 40 and 60 km altitude, the standard deviation of the mean difference exceeds 5 K for the temperature and 20 m/s for the zonal wind. The largest deviations are observed in winter when the variability from large-scale planetary waves dominates. Between lidar data and MPI-ESM-LR, there is an overall agreement in spectral amplitude down to 15–20 days. At shorter time scales, the variability is lacking in the model by ~10 dB. Infrasound observations indicate a general good agreement with ECWMF wind and temperature products. As such, this study demonstrates the potential of the infrastructure of the Atmospheric Dynamics Research Infrastructure in Europe project that integrates various measurements and provides a quantitative understanding of stratosphere-troposphere dynamical coupling for numerical weather prediction applications.

Dust record from the EPICA Dome C ice core, Antarctica, covering 0 to 800 kyr BP

Dust can affect the radiative balance of the atmosphere by absorbing or reflecting incoming solar radiation and it can be a source of micronutrients, such as iron, to the ocean. It has been suggested that production, transport, and deposition of dust is influenced by climatic changes on glacial-interglacial timescales. Here we present a high-resolution aeolian dust record from the EPICA Dome C ice core in East Antarctica, which provides an undisturbed climate sequence over the last eight climatic cycles. We find that there is a significant correlation between dust flux and temperature records during glacial periods that is absent during interglacial periods. Our data suggests that dust flux is increasingly correlated with Antarctic temperature as climate becomes colder. We interpret this as progressive coupling of Antarctic and lower latitudes climate. Limited changes in glacial-interglacial atmospheric transport time Mahowald et al. (1999, doi:10.1029/1999JD900084), Jouzel et al. (2007, doi:10.1126/science.1141038), and Werner et al. (2002, doi:10.1029/2002JD002365) suggest that the sources and lifetime of dust are the major factors controlling the high glacial dust input. We propose that the observed ~25-fold increase in glacial dust flux over all eight glacial periods can be attributed to a strengthening of South American dust sources, together with a longer atmospheric dust particle life-time in the upper troposphere resulting from a reduced hydrological cycle during the ice ages.

The SPARC Data Initiative CFC-11, CFC-12, HF and SF6 climatologies from international satellite limb sounders

CFC-11 (CCl3F), CFC-12 (CCl2F2), HF, and SF6 products from limb-viewing satellite instruments are provided in the form of monthly zonal mean time series obtained from HALOE, MIPAS, ACE-FTS, and HIRDLS within the time period 1991-2010. The data products are made available as part of the Stratosphere-troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate (SPARC) Data Initiative. The trace gas time series extend from the mid-troposphere to as high as the mesosphere. The zonal monthly mean time series are calculated on the SPARC Data Initiative climatology grid using 5° latitude bins and 28 pressure levels. The zonal monthly mean volume mixing ratio (VMR) and the standard deviation along with the number of averaged data values are given for each month, latitude bin, and pressure level. Furthermore, the mean, minimum, and maximum local solar time, the average latitude, and the average day of the month within each bin for one selected pressure level are provided. The time series of all variables are saved in a consistent netcdf format.