Probabilistic wind power forecasts with an inverse power curve transformation and censored regression

Forecasting wind power is an important part of a successful integration of wind power into the power grid. Forecasts with lead times longer than 6 h are generally made by using statistical methods to post-process forecasts from numerical weather prediction systems. Two major problems that complicate this approach are the non-linear relationship between wind speed and power production and the limited range of power production between zero and nominal power of the turbine. In practice, these problems are often tackled by using non-linear non-parametric regression models. However, such an approach ignores valuable and readily available information: the power curve of the turbine's manufacturer. Much of the non-linearity can be directly accounted for by transforming the observed power production into wind speed via the inverse power curve so that simpler linear regression models can be used. Furthermore, the fact that the transformed power production has a limited range can be taken care of by employing censored regression models. In this study, we evaluate quantile forecasts from a range of methods: (i) using parametric and non-parametric models, (ii) with and without the proposed inverse power curve transformation and (iii) with and without censoring. The results show that with our inverse (power-to-wind) transformation, simpler linear regression models with censoring perform equally or better than non-linear models with or without the frequently used wind-to-power transformation.

The iso-Score Curve Graph. A new tool for competitive bidding

The present work describes a new tool that helps bidders improve their competitive bidding strategies. This new tool consists of an easy-to-use graphical tool that allows the use of more complex decision analysis tools in the field of Competitive Bidding. The graphic tool described here tries to move away from previous bidding models which attempt to describe the result of an auction or a tender process by means of studying each possible bidder with probability density functions. As an illustration, the tool is applied to three practical cases. Theoretical and practical conclusions on the great potential breadth of application of the tool are also presented.

Daily thin-ice thickness maps from modis thermal infrared imagery

Accurate knowledge of ice-production rates within the marginal ice zones of the Arctic Ocean requires monitoring of the thin-ice distribution within polynyas. The thickness of the ice layer controls the heat loss and hence the new-ice formation. An established thinice algorithm using high-resolution MODIS data allows deriving the ice-thickness distribution within polynyas. The average uncertainty is ±4.7 cm for ice thicknesses below 0.2 m. In this study, the ice-thickness distributions within the Laptev Sea polynya for the two winter seasons 2007/08 and 2008/09 are calculated. Then, a new method is applied to determine a daily MODIS thin-ice product.

Computing the Cassels–Tate pairing on the 3-Selmer group of an elliptic curve

We extend the method of Cassels for computing the Cassels-Tate pairing on the 2-Selmer group of an elliptic curve, to the case of 3-Selmer groups. This requires significant modifications to both the local and global parts of the calculation. Our method is practical in sufficiently small examples, and can be used to improve the upper bound for the rank of an elliptic curve obtained by 3-descent.

Peptide based hydrogels for cancer drug release: modulation of stiffness, drug release and proteolytic stability of hydrogels by incorporating D-amino acid residue(s)

Synthetic tripeptide based noncytotoxic hydrogelators have been discovered for releasing an anticancer drug at physiological pH and temparature. Interestingly, gel stiffness, drug release capacity and proteolytic stability of these hydrogels have been successfully modulated by incorporating D-amino acid residues, indicating their potential use for drug delivery in the future.

XMM-Newton temperature maps for five intermediate redshift clusters of galaxies

We have analyzed XMM-Newton archive data for five clusters of galaxies (redshifts 0.223-0.313) covering a wide range of dynamical states, from relaxed objects to clusters undergoing several mergers. We present here temperature maps of the X-ray gas together with a preliminary interpretation of the formation history of these clusters. (c) 2007 COSPAR. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A two-armed pattern in flickering maps of the nova-like variable UU aquarii

We report the analysis of a uniform sample of 31 light curves of the nova-like variable UU Aqr with eclipse-mapping techniques. The data were combined to derive eclipse maps of the average steady-light component, the long-term brightness changes, and the low- and high-frequency flickering components. The long-term variability responsible for the ""low-brightness`` and ""high-brightness`` states is explained in terms of the response of a viscous disk to changes of 20%-50% in the mass transfer rate from the donor star. Low- and high-frequency flickering maps are dominated by emission from two asymmetric arcs reminiscent of those seen in the outbursting dwarf nova IP Peg, and they are similarly interpreted as manifestations of a tidally induced spiral shock wave in the outer regions of a large accretion disk. The asymmetric arcs are also seen in the map of the steady light aside from the broad brightness distribution of a roughly steady-state disk. The arcs account for 25% of the steady-light flux and are a long-lasting feature in the accretion disk of UU Aqr. We infer an opening angle of 10 degrees +/- 3 degrees for the spiral arcs. The results suggest that the flickering in UU Aqr is caused by turbulence generated after the collision of disk gas with the density-enhanced spiral wave in the accretion disk.

Precession and nutation in the eta Carinae binary system: evidence from the X-ray light curve

It is believed that eta Carinae is actually a massive binary system, with the wind-wind interaction responsible for the strong X-ray emission. Although the overall shape of the X-ray light curve can be explained by the high eccentricity of the binary orbit, other features like the asymmetry near periastron passage and the short quasi-periodic oscillations seen at those epochs have not yet been accounted for. In this paper we explain these features assuming that the rotation axis of eta Carinae is not perpendicular to the orbital plane of the binary system. As a consequence, the companion star will face eta Carinae on the orbital plane at different latitudes for different orbital phases and, since both the mass-loss rate and the wind velocity are latitude dependent, they would produce the observed asymmetries in the X-ray flux. We were able to reproduce the main features of the X-ray light curve assuming that the rotation axis of eta Carinae forms an angle of 29 degrees +/- 4 degrees with the axis of the binary orbit. We also explained the short quasi-periodic oscillations by assuming nutation of the rotation axis, with an amplitude of about 5 degrees and a period of about 22 days. The nutation parameters, as well as the precession of the apsis, with a period of about 274 years, are consistent with what is expected from the torques induced by the companion star.

A novel locus for split-hand/foot malformation associated with tibial hemimelia (SHFLD syndrome) maps to chromosome region 17p13.1-17p13.3

Split-hand/foot malformation (SHFM) associated with aplasia of long bones, SHFLD syndrome or Tibial hemimelia-ectrodactyly syndrome is a rare condition with autosomal dominant inheritance, reduced penetrance and an incidence estimated to be about 1 in 1,000,000 liveborns. To date, three chromosomal regions have been reported as strong candidates for harboring SHFLD syndrome genes: 1q42.2-q43, 6q14.1 and 2q14.2. We characterized the phenotype of nine affected individuals from a large family with the aim of mapping the causative gene. Among the nine affected patients, four had only SHFM of the hands and no tibial defects, three had both defects and two had only unilateral tibial hemimelia. In keeping with previous publications of this and other families, there was clear evidence of both variable expression and incomplete penetrance, the latter bearing hallmarks of anticipation. Segregation analysis and multipoint Lod scores calculations (maximum Lod score of 5.03 using the LINKMAP software) using all potentially informative family members, both affected and unaffected, identified the chromosomal region 17p13.1-17p13.3 as the best and only candidate for harboring a novel mutated gene responsible for the syndrome in this family. The candidate gene CRK located within this region was sequenced but no pathogenic mutation was detected.

Neuronal Expression of Cd36, Cd44, and Cd83 Antigen Transcripts Maps to Distinct and Specific Murine Brain Circuits

Cells recruited by the innate immune response rely on surface-expressed molecules in order to receive signals from the local environment and to perform phagocytosis, cell adhesion, and others processes linked to host defense. Hundreds of surface antigens designated through a cluster of differentiation (CD) number have been used to identify particular populations of leukocytes. Surprisingly, we verified that the genes that encode Cd36 and Cd83 are constitutively expressed in specific neuronal cells. For instance, Cd36 mRNA is expressed in some regions related to circuitry involved in pheromone responses and reproductive behavior. Cd44 expression, reanalyzed and detailed here, is associated with the laminar formation and midline thalamic nuclei in addition to striatum, extended amygdala, and a few hypothalamic, cortical, and hippocampal regions. A systemic immune challenge was able to increase Cd44 expression quickly in the area postrema and motor nucleus of the vagus but not in regions presenting expressive constitutive expression. In contrast to Cd36 and Cd44, Cd83 message was widely distributed from the olfactory bulb to the brain stem reticular formation, sparing the striatopallidum, olivary region, and cerebellum. Its pattern of expression nevertheless remained strongly associated with hypothalamic, thalamic, and hindbrain nuclei. Unlike the other transcripts, Cd83 mRNA was rapidly modulated by restraint stress. Our results indicate that these molecules might play a role in specific neural circuits and present functions other than those attributed to leukocyte biology. The data also suggest that these surface proteins, or their associated mRNA, could be used to label neurons in specific circuits/regions. J. Comp. Neurol. 517:906-924, 2009. (C) 2009 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

ROOT PROBLEM FOR CONVENIENT MAPS

In this paper we study when the minimal number of roots of the so-called convenient maps horn two-dimensional CW complexes into closed surfaces is zero We present several necessary and sufficient conditions for such a map to be root free Among these conditions we have the existence of specific fittings for the homomorphism induced by the map on the fundamental groups, existence of the so-called mutation of a specific homomorphism also induced by the map, and existence of particular solutions of specific systems of equations on free groups over specific subgroups

Strong surjectivity of maps from 2-complexes into the 2-sphere

Given a model 2-complex K(P) of a group presentation P, we associate to it an integer matrix Delta(P) and we prove that a cellular map f : K(P) -> S(2) is root free (is not strongly surjective) if and only if the diophantine linear system Delta(P) Y = (deg) over right arrow (f) has an integer solution, here (deg) over right arrow (f) is the so-called vector-degree of f

Topological invariants of isolated complete intersection curve singularities

In this paper we present some formulae for topological invariants of projective complete intersection curves with isolated singularities in terms of the Milnor number, the Euler characteristic and the topological genus. We also present some conditions, involving the Milnor number and the degree of the curve, for the irreducibility of complete intersection curves.

The curve selection lemma and the Morse-Sard theorem

We use an inequality due to Bochnak and Lojasiewicz, which follows from the Curve Selection Lemma of real algebraic geometry in order to prove that, given a C(r) function f : U subset of R(m) -> R, we have lim(y -> xy is an element of crit(f)) vertical bar f(y) - f(x)vertical bar/vertical bar y - x vertical bar(r) = 0, for all x is an element of crit(f)` boolean AND U, where crit( f) = {x is an element of U vertical bar df ( x) = 0}. This shows that the so-called Morse decomposition of the critical set, used in the classical proof of the Morse-Sard theorem, is not necessary: the conclusion of the Morse decomposition lemma holds for the whole critical set. We use this result to give a simple proof of the classical Morse-Sard theorem ( with sharp differentiability assumptions).