Use of virtual index for measuring efficiency of innovation systems : a cross-country study

In this study we propose a virtual index for measuring the relative innovativeness of countries. Using a multistage virtual benchmarking process, the best and rational benchmark is extracted for inefficient ISs. Furthermore, Tobit and Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression models are used to investigate the likelihood of changes in inefficiencies by investigating country-specific factors. The empirical results relating to the virtual benchmarking process suggest that the OLS regression model would better explain changes in the performance of innovation- inefficient countries.

Relationship between physical activity and stiff or painful joints in mid-aged women and older women: a 3-year prospective study

This prospective study examined the association between physical activity and the incidence of self-reported stiff or painful joints (SPJ) among mid-age women and older women over a 3-year period. Data were collected from cohorts of mid-age (48–55 years at Time 1; n = 4,780) and older women (72–79 years at Time 1; n = 3,970) who completed mailed surveys 3 years apart for the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health. Physical activity was measured with the Active Australia questions and categorized based on metabolic equivalent value minutes per week: none (<40 MET.min/week); very low (40 to <300 MET.min/week); low (300 to <600 MET.min/week); moderate (600 to <1,200 MET.min/week); and high (1,200+ MET.min/week). Cohort-specific logistic regression models were used to examine the association between physical activity at Time 1 and SPJ 'sometimes or often' and separately 'often' at Time 2. Respondents reporting SPJ 'sometimes or often' at Time 1 were excluded from analysis. In univariate models, the odds of reporting SPJ 'sometimes or often' were lower for mid-age respondents reporting low (odds ratio (OR) = 0.77, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.63–0.94), moderate (OR = 0.82, 95% CI = 0.68–0.99), and high (OR = 0.75, 95% CI = 0.62–0.90) physical activity levels and for older respondents who were moderately (OR = 0.80, 95% CI = 0.65–0.98) or highly active (OR = 0.83, 95% CI = 0.69–0.99) than for those who were sedentary. After adjustment for confounders, these associations were no longer statistically significant. The odds of reporting SPJ 'often' were lower for mid-age respondents who were moderately active (OR = 0.71, 95% CI = 0.52–0.97) than for sedentary respondents in univariate but not adjusted models. Older women in the low (OR = 0.72, 95% CI = 0.55–0.96), moderate (OR = 0.54, 95% CI = 0.39–0.76), and high (OR = 0.61, 95% CI = 0.46–0.82) physical activity categories had lower odds of reporting SPJ 'often' at Time 2 than their sedentary counterparts, even after adjustment for confounders. These results are the first to show a dose–response relationship between physical activity and arthritis symptoms in older women. They suggest that advice for older women not currently experiencing SPJ should routinely include counseling on the importance of physical activity for preventing the onset of these symptoms.

Prospective association between physical activity and falls in community-dwelling older women

Abstract Objective: To explore associations between physical activity and risk of falls and broken or fractured bones in community-dwelling older women. Design, setting and participants: This was a prospective observational survey with 3- and 6-year follow-ups. The sample included 8562 healthy, community-dwelling women, aged 70-75 years in 1996, who completed surveys as participants in the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women’s Health. Outcomes were reports of a fall to the ground, injury from a fall, and broken or fractured bones in 1999 and 2002. The main predictor variable was physical activity level in 1996, categorized based on weekly frequency as none/very low, low, moderate, high, and very high. Covariates were demographic and health-related variables. Logistic regression models were computed separately for each outcome in 1999 and 2002. Main results: In multivariable models, very high physical activity was associated with decreased risk of a fall in 1999 (odds ratio 0.67, 95% CI 0.48 to 0.93) and in 2002 (odds ratio 0.62, 95% CI 0.42 to 0.92). High/very high physical activity was associated with decreased risk of broken or fractured bones in 2002 (odds ratio 0.64, 95% CI 0.42 to 0.96). No significant association was found between physical activity and injury from a fall. Conclusions: The results suggest that at least daily moderate to vigorous physical activity is required for the primary prevention of falls to the ground and broken or fractured bones in women aged 70-75 years.

Physical activity, sitting and depression during pregnancy

Aims The aim of this cross sectional study is to explore levels of physical activity and sitting behaviour amongst a sample of pregnant Australian women (n = 81), and investigate whether reported levels of physical activity and/or time spent sitting were associated with depressive symptom scores after controlling for potential covariates. Methods Study participants were women who attended the antenatal clinic of a large Brisbane maternity hospital between October and November 2006. Data relating to participants. current levels of physical activity, sitting behaviour, depressive symptoms, demographic characteristics and exposure to known risk factors for depression during pregnancy were collected; via on-site survey, follow-up telephone interview (approximately one week later) and post delivery access to participant hospital records. Results Participants were aged 29.5 (¡¾ 5.6) years and mostly partnered (86.4%) with a gross household income above $26,000 per annum (88.9%). Levels of physical activity were generally low, with only 28.4 % of participants reporting sufficient total activity and 16% of participants reporting sufficient planned (leisure-time) activity. The sample mean for depressive symptom scores measured by the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS-D) was 6.38 (¡¾ 2.55). The mean depressive symptom scores for participants who reported total moderate-to-vigorous activity levels of sufficient, insufficient, and none, were 5.43 (¡¾ 1.56), 5.82 (¡¾ 1.77) and 7.63 (¡¾ 3.25), respectively. Hierarchical multivariable linear regression modelling indicated that after controlling for covariates, a statistically significant difference of 1.09 points was observed between mean depressive symptom scores of participants who reported sufficient total physical activity, compared with participants who reported they were engaging in no moderate-to-vigorous activity in a typical week (p = 0.05) but this did not reach the criteria for a clinically meaningful difference. Total physical activity was contributed 2.2% to the total 30.3% of explained variance within this model. The other main contributors to explained variance in multivariable regression models were anxiety symptom scores and the number of existing children. Further, a trend was observed between higher levels of planned sitting behaviour and higher depressive symptom scores (p = 0.06); this correlation was not clinically meaningful. Planned sitting contributed 3.2% to the total 31.3 % of explained variance. The number of regression covariates and limited sample size led to a less than ideal ratio of covariates to participants, probably attenuating this relationship. Specific information about the sitting-based activities in which participants engaged may have provided greater insight about the relationship between planned sitting and depressive symptoms, but these data were not captured by the present study. Conclusions The finding that higher levels of physical activity were associated with lower levels of depressive symptoms is consistent with the current body of existing literature in pregnant women, and with a larger body of evidence based in general population samples. Although this result was not considered clinically meaningful, the criterion for a clinically meaningful result was an a priori decision based on quality of life literature in non-pregnant populations and may not truly reflect a difference in symptoms that is meaningful to pregnant women. Further investigation to establish clinically meaningful criteria for continuous depressive symptom data in pregnant women is required. This result may have implications relating to prevention and management options for depression during pregnancy. The observed trend between planned sitting and depressive symptom scores is consistent with literature based on leisure-time sitting behaviour in general population samples, and suggests that further research in this area, with larger samples of pregnant women and more specific sitting data is required to explore potential associations between activities such as television viewing and depressive symptoms, as this may be an area of behaviour that is amenable to modification.

A large change in temperature between neighbouring days increases the risk of mortality

Background: Previous studies have found high temperatures increase the risk of mortality in summer. However, little is known about whether a sharp decrease or increase in temperature between neighbouring days has any effect on mortality. Method: Poisson regression models were used to estimate the association between temperature change and mortality in summer in Brisbane, Australia during 1996–2004 and Los Angeles, United States during 1987–2000. The temperature change was calculated as the current day’s mean temperature minus the previous day’s mean. Results: In Brisbane, a drop of more than 3 °C in temperature between days was associated with relative risks (RRs) of 1.157 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.024, 1.307) for total non external mortality (NEM), 1.186 (95%CI: 1.002, 1.405) for NEM in females, and 1.442 (95%CI: 1.099, 1.892) for people aged 65–74 years. An increase of more than 3 °C was associated with RRs of 1.353 (95%CI: 1.033, 1.772) for cardiovascular mortality and 1.667 (95%CI: 1.146, 2.425) for people aged < 65 years. In Los Angeles, only a drop of more than 3 °C was significantly associated with RRs of 1.133 (95%CI: 1.053, 1.219) for total NEM, 1.252 (95%CI: 1.131, 1.386) for cardiovascular mortality, and 1.254 (95%CI: 1.135, 1.385) for people aged ≥75 years. In both cities, there were joint effects of temperature change and mean temperature on NEM. Conclusion : A significant change in temperature of more than 3 °C, whether positive or negative, has an adverse impact on mortality even after controlling for the current temperature.

Which older women could benefit from interventions to decrease sitting time and increase physical activity?

In addition to the well-known health risks associated with lack of physical activity (PA), evidence is emerging about the health risks of sedentary behaviour (sitting). Research about patterns and correlates of sitting and PA in older women is scarce. METHODS: Self-report data from 6,116 women aged 76-81 years were collected as part of the Australian Longitudinal Study on Woman’s Health. Linear regression models were computed to examine whether demographic, social and health factors were associated with sitting and PA. RESULTS: Women who did no PA sat more than women who did any PA (p<0.001). Seven correlates were associated with sitting and PA (p<0.05). Five of these were associated with more sitting and less PA: three health-related (BMI, chronic conditions, anxiety/depression) and two social correlates (caring duties, volunteering). One demographic (being from another English-speaking country) and one social correlate (more social interaction) were associated with more sitting and more PA. Four correlates, two demographic (living in a city; post-high school education), one social (being single), and one health-related correlate (dizziness/loss of balance) were associated with more sitting only. Two other health-related correlates (stiff/painful joints; feet problems) were associated with less PA only. CONCLUSION: Sedentary behaviour and PA are distinct behaviours in older Australian women. Information about the correlates of both behaviours can be used to identify population groups who might benefit from interventions to reduce sedentary behaviour and/or increase PA.

Inferior field loss increases rate of falls in older adults with glaucoma

PURPOSE: To examine the visual predictors of falls and injurious falls among older adults with glaucoma. METHODS: Prospective falls data were collected for 71 community-dwelling adults with primary open-angle glaucoma, mean age 73.9 ± 5.7 years, for one year using monthly falls diaries. Baseline assessment of central visual function included high-contrast visual acuity and Pelli-Robson contrast sensitivity. Binocular integrated visual fields were derived from monocular Humphrey Field Analyser plots. Rate ratios (RR) for falls and injurious falls with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were based on negative binomial regression models. RESULTS: During the one year follow-up, 31 (44%) participants experienced at least one fall and 22 (31%) experienced falls that resulted in an injury. Greater visual impairment was associated with increased falls rate, independent of age and gender. In a multivariate model, more extensive field loss in the inferior region was associated with higher rate of falls (RR 1.57, 95%CI 1.06, 2.32) and falls with injury (RR 1.80, 95%CI 1.12, 2.98), adjusted for all other vision measures and potential confounding factors. Visual acuity, contrast sensitivity, and superior field loss were not associated with the rate of falls; topical beta-blocker use was also not associated with increased falls risk. CONCLUSIONS: Falls are common among older adults with glaucoma and occur more frequently in those with greater visual impairment, particularly in the inferior field region. This finding highlights the importance of the inferior visual field region in falls risk and assists in identifying older adults with glaucoma at risk of future falls, for whom potential interventions should be targeted. KEY WORDS: glaucoma, visual field, visual impairment, falls, injury

Variational Bayes and the reduced dependence approximation for the autologistic model on an irregular grid with applications

Discrete Markov random field models provide a natural framework for representing images or spatial datasets. They model the spatial association present while providing a convenient Markovian dependency structure and strong edge-preservation properties. However, parameter estimation for discrete Markov random field models is difficult due to the complex form of the associated normalizing constant for the likelihood function. For large lattices, the reduced dependence approximation to the normalizing constant is based on the concept of performing computationally efficient and feasible forward recursions on smaller sublattices which are then suitably combined to estimate the constant for the whole lattice. We present an efficient computational extension of the forward recursion approach for the autologistic model to lattices that have an irregularly shaped boundary and which may contain regions with no data; these lattices are typical in applications. Consequently, we also extend the reduced dependence approximation to these scenarios enabling us to implement a practical and efficient non-simulation based approach for spatial data analysis within the variational Bayesian framework. The methodology is illustrated through application to simulated data and example images. The supplemental materials include our C++ source code for computing the approximate normalizing constant and simulation studies.

Human herpesvirus 8 load and progression of AIDS-related Kaposi sarcoma lesions

Introduction—Human herpesvirus 8 (HHV8) is necessary for Kaposi sarcoma (KS) to develop, but whether peripheral blood viral load is a marker of KS burden (total number of KS lesions), KS progression (the rate of eruption of new KS lesions), or both is unclear. We investigated these relationships in persons with AIDS. Methods—Newly diagnosed patients with AIDS-related KS attending Mulago Hospital, in Kampala, Uganda, were assessed for KS burden and progression by questionnaire and medical examination. Venous blood samples were taken for HHV8 load measurements by PCR. Associations were examined with odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) from logistic regression models and with t-tests. Results—Among 74 patients (59% men), median age was 34.5 years (interquartile range [IQR], 28.5-41). HHV8 DNA was detected in 93% and quantified in 77% patients. Median virus load was 3.8 logs10/106 peripheral blood cells (IQR 3.4-5.0) and was higher in men than women (4.4 vs. 3.8 logs; p=0.04), in patients with faster (>20 lesions per year) than slower rate of KS lesion eruption (4.5 vs. 3.6 logs; p<0.001), and higher, but not significantly, among patients with more (>median [20] KS lesions) than fewer KS lesions (4.4 vs. 4.0 logs; p=0.16). HHV8 load was unrelated to CD4 lymphocyte count (p=0.23). Conclusions—We show significant association of HHV8 load in peripheral blood with rate of eruption of KS lesions, but not with total lesion count. Our results suggest that viral load increases concurrently with development of new KS lesions.

H. pylori-infection and antibody immune response in a rural Tanzanian population

Abstract Background: Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) infection is ubiquitous in sub-Saharan Africa, but paradoxically gastric cancer is rare. Methods: Sera collected during a household-based survey in rural Tanzania in 1985 were tested for anti-H. pylori IgG and IgG subclass antibodies by enzyme immunoassay. Odds ratios (OR) and confidence intervals (CI) of association of seropositivity with demographic variables were computed by logistic regression models. Results: Of 788 participants, 513 were aged ≤17 years. H. pylori seropositivity increased from 76% at 0–4 years to 99% by ≥18 years of age. Seropositivity was associated with age (OR 11.5, 95% CI 4.2–31.4 for 10–17 vs. 0–4 years), higher birth-order (11.1; 3.6–34.1 for ≥3rd vs. 1st born), and having a seropositive next-older sibling (2.7; 0.9–8.3). Median values of IgG subclass were 7.2 for IgG1 and 2.0 for IgG2. The median IgG1/IgG2 ratio was 3.1 (IQR: 1.7–5.6), consistent with a Th2- dominant immune profile. Th2-dominant response was more frequent in children than adults (OR 2.4, 95% CI 1.3–4.4). Conclusion: H. pylori seropositivity was highly prevalent in Tanzania and the immunological response was Th2-dominant. Th2-dominant immune response, possibly caused by concurrent bacterial or parasitic infections, could explain, in part, the lower risk of H. pylori-associated gastric cancer in Africa.

Mean-field descriptions of collective migration with strong adhesion

Random walk models based on an exclusion process with contact effects are often used to represent collective migration where individual agents are affected by agent-to-agent adhesion. Traditional mean field representations of these processes take the form of a nonlinear diffusion equation which, for strong adhesion, does not predict the averaged discrete behavior. We propose an alternative suite of mean-field representations, showing that collective migration with strong adhesion can be accurately represented using a moment closure approach.

The relationship between chronic disease self-efficacy and nutritional status, functional ability and quality of life in older adults at risk of hospital readmission

Background and significance: Older adults with chronic diseases are at increasing risk of hospital admission and readmission. Approximately 75% of adults have at least one chronic condition, and the odds of developing a chronic condition increases with age. Chronic diseases consume about 70% of the total Australian health expenditure, and about 59% of hospital events for chronic conditions are potentially preventable. These figures have brought to light the importance of the management of chronic disease among the growing older population. Many studies have endeavoured to develop effective chronic disease management programs by applying social cognitive theory. However, limited studies have focused on chronic disease self-management in older adults at high risk of hospital readmission. Moreover, although the majority of studies have covered wide and valuable outcome measures, there is scant evidence on examining the fundamental health outcomes such as nutritional status, functional status and health-related quality of life. Aim: The aim of this research was to test social cognitive theory in relation to self-efficacy in managing chronic disease and three health outcomes, namely nutritional status, functional status, and health-related quality of life, in older adults at high risk of hospital readmission. Methods: A cross-sectional study design was employed for this research. Three studies were undertaken. Study One examined the nutritional status and validation of a nutritional screening tool; Study Two explored the relationships between participants. characteristics, self-efficacy beliefs, and health outcomes based on the study.s hypothesized model; Study Three tested a theoretical model based on social cognitive theory, which examines potential mechanisms of the mediation effects of social support and self-efficacy beliefs. One hundred and fifty-seven patients aged 65 years and older with a medical admission and at least one risk factor for readmission were recruited. Data were collected from medical records on demographics, medical history, and from self-report questionnaires. The nutrition data were collected by two registered nurses. For Study One, a contingency table and the kappa statistic was used to determine the validity of the Malnutrition Screening Tool. In Study Two, standard multiple regression, hierarchical multiple regression and logistic regression were undertaken to determine the significant influential predictors for the three health outcome measures. For Study Three, a structural equation modelling approach was taken to test the hypothesized self-efficacy model. Results: The findings of Study One suggested that a high prevalence of malnutrition continues to be a concern in older adults as the prevalence of malnutrition was 20.6% according to the Subjective Global Assessment. Additionally, the findings confirmed that the Malnutrition Screening Tool is a valid nutritional screening tool for hospitalized older adults at risk of readmission when compared to the Subjective Global Assessment with high sensitivity (94%), and specificity (89%) and substantial agreement between these two methods (k = .74, p < .001; 95% CI .62-.86). Analysis data for Study Two found that depressive symptoms and perceived social support were the two strongest influential factors for self-efficacy in managing chronic disease in a hierarchical multiple regression. Results of multivariable regression models suggested advancing age, depressive symptoms and less tangible support were three important predictors for malnutrition. In terms of functional status, a standard regression model found that social support was the strongest predictor for the Instrumental Activities of Daily Living, followed by self-efficacy in managing chronic disease. The results of standard multiple regression revealed that the number of hospital readmission risk factors adversely affected the physical component score, while depressive symptoms and self-efficacy beliefs were two significant predictors for the mental component score. In Study Three, the results of the structural equation modelling found that self-efficacy partially mediated the effect of health characteristics and depression on health-related quality of life. The health characteristics had strong direct effects on functional status and body mass index. The results also indicated that social support partially mediated the relationship between health characteristics and functional status. With regard to the joint effects of social support and self-efficacy, social support fully mediated the effect of health characteristics on self-efficacy, and self-efficacy partially mediated the effect of social support on functional status and health-related quality of life. The results also demonstrated that the models fitted the data well with relative high variance explained by the models, implying the hypothesized constructs under discussion were highly relevant, and hence the application for social cognitive theory in this context was supported. Conclusion: This thesis highlights the applicability of social cognitive theory on chronic disease self-management in older adults at risk of hospital readmission. Further studies are recommended to validate and continue to extend the development of social cognitive theory on chronic disease self-management in older adults to improve their nutritional and functional status, and health-related quality of life.

The obesity-associated polymorphisms FTO rs9939609 and MC4R rs17782313 and endometrial cancer risk in non-Hispanic white women

Overweight and obesity are strongly associated with endometrial cancer. Several independent genome-wide association studies recently identified two common polymorphisms, FTO rs9939609 and MC4R rs17782313, that are linked to increased body weight and obesity. We examined the association of FTO rs9939609 and MC4R rs17782313 with endometrial cancer risk in a pooled analysis of nine case-control studies within the Epidemiology of Endometrial Cancer Consortium (E2C2). This analysis included 3601 non-Hispanic white women with histologically-confirmed endometrial carcinoma and 5275 frequency-matched controls. Unconditional logistic regression models were used to assess the relation of FTO rs9939609 and MC4R rs17782313 genotypes to the risk of endometrial cancer. Among control women, both the FTO rs9939609 A and MC4R rs17782313 C alleles were associated with a 16% increased risk of being overweight (p = 0.001 and p = 0.004, respectively). In case-control analyses, carriers of the FTO rs9939609 AA genotype were at increased risk of endometrial carcinoma compared to women with the TT genotype [odds ratio (OR) = 1.17; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.03–1.32, p = 0.01]. However, this association was no longer apparent after adjusting for body mass index (BMI), suggesting mediation of the gene-disease effect through body weight. The MC4R rs17782313 polymorphism was not related to endometrial cancer risk (per allele OR = 0.98; 95% CI: 0.91–1.06; p = 0.68). FTO rs9939609 is a susceptibility marker for white non-Hispanic women at higher risk of endometrial cancer. Although FTO rs9939609 alone might have limited clinical or public health significance for identifying women at high risk for endometrial cancer beyond that of excess body weight, further investigation of obesity-related genetic markers might help to identify the pathways that influence endometrial carcinogenesis.

Characteristics of foot structure and footwear associated with hallux valgus : a systematic review

Objective Factors associated with the development of hallux valgus (HV) are multifactorial and remain unclear. The objective of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to investigate characteristics of foot structure and footwear associated with HV. Design Electronic databases (Medline, Embase, and CINAHL) were searched to December 2010. Cross-sectional studies with a valid definition of HV and a non-HV comparison group were included. Two independent investigators quality rated all included papers. Effect sizes and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated (standardized mean differences (SMDs) for continuous data and risk ratios (RRs) for dichotomous data). Where studies were homogeneous, pooling of SMDs was conducted using random effects models. Results A total of 37 papers (34 unique studies) were quality rated. After exclusion of studies without reported measurement reliability for associated factors, data were extracted and analysed from 16 studies reporting results for 45 different factors. Significant factors included: greater first intermetatarsal angle (pooled SMD = 1.5, CI: 0.88–2.1), longer first metatarsal (pooled SMD = 1.0, CI: 0.48–1.6), round first metatarsal head (RR: 3.1–5.4), and lateral sesamoid displacement (RR: 5.1–5.5). Results for clinical factors (e.g., first ray mobility, pes planus, footwear) were less conclusive regarding their association with HV. Conclusions Although conclusions regarding causality cannot be made from cross-sectional studies, this systematic review highlights important factors to monitor in HV assessment and management. Further studies with rigorous methodology are warranted to investigate clinical factors associated with HV.

Gender differences in recreational and transport cycling : a cross-sectional mixed-methods comparison of cycling patterns, motivators, and constraints

Background: Gender differences in cycling are well-documented. However, most analyses of gender differences make broad comparisons, with few studies modeling male and female cycling patterns separately for recreational and transport cycling. This modeling is important, in order to improve our efforts to promote cycling to women and men in countries like Australia with low rates of transport cycling. The main aim of this study was to examine gender differences in cycling patterns and in motivators and constraints to cycling, separately for recreational and transport cycling. Methods: Adult members of a Queensland, Australia, community bicycling organization completed an online survey about their cycling patterns; cycling purposes; and personal, social and perceived environmental motivators and constraints (47% response rate). Closed and open-end questions were completed. Using the quantitative data, multivariable linear, logistic and ordinal regression models were used to examine associations between gender and cycling patterns, motivators and constraints. The qualitative data were thematically analysed to expand upon the quantitative findings. Results: In this sample of 1862 bicyclists, men were more likely than women to cycle for recreation and for transport, and they cycled for longer. Most transport cycling was for commuting, with men more likely than women to commute by bicycle. Men were more likely to cycle on-road, and women off-road. However, most men and women did not prefer to cycle on-road without designed bicycle lanes, and qualitative data indicated a strong preference by men and women for bicycle-only off-road paths. Both genders reported personal factors (health and enjoyment related) as motivators for cycling, although women were more likely to agree that other personal, social and environmental factors were also motivating. The main constraints for both genders and both cycling purposes were perceived environmental factors related to traffic conditions, motorist aggression and safety. Women, however, reported more constraints, and were more likely to report as constraints other environmental factors and personal factors. Conclusion: Differences found in men’s and women’s cycling patterns, motivators and constraints should be considered in efforts to promote cycling, particularly in efforts to increase cycling for transport.