904 resultados para Random coefficient multinomial logit


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We present a model for transport in multiply scattering media based on a three-dimensional generalization of the persistent random walk. The model assumes that photons move along directions that are parallel to the axes. Although this hypothesis is not realistic, it allows us to solve exactly the problem of multiple scattering propagation in a thin slab. Among other quantities, the transmission probability and the mean transmission time can be calculated exactly. Besides being completely solvable, the model could be used as a benchmark for approximation schemes to multiple light scattering.

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The author studies random walk estimators for radiosity with generalized absorption probabilities. That is, a path will either die or survive on a patch according to an arbitrary probability. The estimators studied so far, the infinite path length estimator and finite path length one, can be considered as particular cases. Practical applications of the random walks with generalized probabilities are given. A necessary and sufficient condition for the existence of the variance is given, together with heuristics to be used in practical cases. The optimal probabilities are also found for the case when one is interested in the whole scene, and are equal to the reflectivities

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The purpose of the thesis is to analyze whether the returns of general stock market indices of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania follow the random walk hypothesis (RWH), and in addition, whether they are consistent with the weak-form efficiency criterion. Also the existence of the day-of-the-week anomaly is examined in the same regional markets. The data consists of daily closing quotes of the OMX Tallinn, Riga and Vilnius total return indices for the sample period from January 3, 2000 to August 28, 2009. Moreover, the full sample period is also divided into two sub-periods. The RWH is tested by applying three quantitative methods (i.e. the Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test, serial correlation test and non-parametric runs test). Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression with dummy variables is employed to detect the day-of-the-week anomalies. The random walk hypothesis (RWH) is rejected in the Estonian and Lithuanian stock markets. The Latvian stock market exhibits more efficient behaviour, although some evidence of inefficiency is also found, mostly during the first sub-period from 2000 to 2004. Day-of-the-week anomalies are detected on every stock market examined, though no longer during the later sub-period.

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O objetivo deste estudo foi, justamente, identificar, entre os métodos LOGIT e a análise multivariada, qual a mais eficaz para estimar a Disposição a Aceitar Compensação (DAC) dos cafeicultores quando o viés da utilidade marginal é passível de ocorrência. Para tal, foi elaborado um formulário com 33 perguntas envolvendo informações sobre características socioeconômicas dos cafeicultores, o uso da metodologia de valoração de contingente (MVC) e do veículo de pagamento dos "Jogos de Lances", que revelou a Disposição a Aceitar uma Compensação (DAC) na troca de um hectare de café por um hectare de mata. Como esperado, por causa do viés da utilidade marginal o método LOGIT foi incapaz de produzir resultados consistentes. Já a estimação da DAC pela análise multivariada mostrou que, caso o governo estivesse disposto a aumentar a provisão de mata em 70 ha, ele deveria despender 254.200 reais por ano, tratando apenas dos cafeicultores vinculados ao programa do PRO-CAFÉ.

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This study analyzed the reproductive system and the pollen dispersion pattern of Qualea grandiflora progenies. This is a typical species from the Brazilian Cerrado about which there are not too many studies from the genetics point of view. The study was conducted in an area of 2.2 hectares located in the Conservation Unit managed by the Forest Institute of the state of São Paulo, Brazil (Assis State Forest). Total genomic DNA of 300 seeds from 25 plants (12 seeds from each plant) was extracted and amplified using specific primers to obtain microsatellite markers. Results showed that selfing is frequent among adults and progenies, and the species reproduces by outcrossing between related and unrelated individuals (0.913). The single-locus outcrossing rate was 0.632, which indicates that mating between unrelated individuals is more frequent than between related plants. The selfing rate was low (0.087), that is, the species is allogamous and self-fertilization is reduced. About 35% of the plants in the progenies were full-sibs, and about 57%, half-sibs. Besides, about 8% of the progenies were selfing siblings. The genetic differentiation coefficient within progenies was 0.139, whereas the fixation rate was about 27%. The estimate of the effective size revealed that the genetic representativeness of descent was lower than expected in random mating progenies: The analyzed samples corresponded to only 13.2 individuals of an ideal panmictic population. In environmental recovery programs, seeds, preferably from different fruits, should be collected from 95 trees to preserve the genetic diversity of the species.

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In the forced-air cooling process of fruits occurs, besides the convective heat transfer, the mass transfer by evaporation. The energy need in the evaporation is taken from fruit that has its temperature lowered. In this study it has been proposed the use of empirical correlations for calculating the convective heat transfer coefficient as a function of surface temperature of the strawberry during the cooling process. The aim of this variation of the convective coefficient is to compensate the effect of evaporation in the heat transfer process. Linear and exponential correlations are tested, both with two adjustable parameters. The simulations are performed using experimental conditions reported in the literature for the cooling of strawberries. The results confirm the suitability of the proposed methodology.

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In this article, a methodology is used for the simultaneous determination of the effective diffusivity and the convective mass transfer coefficient in porous solids, which can be considered as an infinite cylinder during drying. Two models are used for optimization and drying simulation: model 1 (constant volume and diffusivity, with equilibrium boundary condition), and model 2 (constant volume and diffusivity with convective boundary condition). Optimization algorithms based on the inverse method were coupled to the analytical solutions, and these solutions can be adjusted to experimental data of the drying kinetics. An application of optimization methodology was made to describe the drying kinetics of whole bananas, using experimental data available in the literature. The statistical indicators enable to affirm that the solution of diffusion equation with convective boundary condition generates results superior than those with the equilibrium boundary condition.

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The knowledge of the evapotranspiration (ETc) and crop coefficient (Kc) is fundamental to plan and to manage the irrigation of any crop. The aim of this study was to determine the daily and hourly evapotranspiration of drip irrigated watermelon (Citrullus Lanatus, var. Crimson Sweet) and crop coefficient (Kc) in each crop development phase. The experiment was carried out in an experimental area of 1.27 ha of Embrapa Mid-North, localized in Parnaíba (02°54'S, 41°47'W and 46 m above of sea), State of Piauí, Brazil, from September to November, 2006. Electronic weighing lysimeters of 1.5 m x 1.5 m wide and long and 1.0 m deep were used to obtain the evapotranspiration. The plants were drip irrigated with a lateral row per plant row and drippers spaced 0.5 m from each other. The reference evapotranspiration (ETo) was estimated using the Penman-Monteith equation from the climatic data obtained by electronic sensors. The total evapotranspiration during the watermelon crop cycle cultivated in the state of Piauí was 233.87 mm, with mean values of 3.7 mm day-1, minimum of 1.18 and maximum of 8.14 mm day-1. The Kc of the drip irrigated watermelon was 0.18 in the initial stage of crop growth; 0.18 to 1.3, in crop development stage; 1.3 in the intermediate stage and 0.43 in the final stage.

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Under organic management in Seropédica-RJ, Brazil, using a weighing lysimeter, the crop coefficients (kc), the maximum evapotranspiration and the productivity of eggplant cultivation under two cropping systems (no tillage with straw plus soil with conventional preparation) were determined. A whole randomized layout with two treatments (no tillage and conventional) and five replicates during 134 days of cultivation were adopted. There were no significant differences in the eggplant cultivation in the two cropping systems, with a maximum commercial productivity obtained from 47.42 Mg ha-1 for the no-tillage system, and 47.91 Mg ha-1 for the conventional tillage. The accumulated ETc was 285.15 and 323.44 mm for the no-tillage and conventional, respectively. The crop coefficients value for the phases: 1 - transplanting, flowering, 2 - flowering-fruiting, 3 - fruit- first harvesting, 4- first harvesting of the final crop cycle was 0.83, 0.77, 0.90 and 0.97 in no-tillage system for the respective phases and for the conventional one 0.81, 1.14, 1.17 and 1.05 for the same steps described above.

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The aim of this study was to quantify the water consumption and the crop coefficients (Kc) for the potato (Solanum tuberosum L.), in Seropédica, Rio de Janeiro (RJ), Brazil, under organic management, and to simulate the crop evapotranspiration (ETc) using the Kc obtained in the field and the ones recommended by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). The water consumption was obtained through soil water balance, using TDR probes installed at 0.15m and 0.30m deep. At the different stages of development, the Kc was determined by the ratio of ETc and reference evapotranspiration, obtained by Penman-Monteith FAO 56. The crop coefficients obtained were 0.35, 0.45, 1.29 and 0.63. The accumulated ETc obtained in the field was 109.6 mm, while the ETc accumulated from FAO's Kc were 142.2 and 138mm, respectively, considering the classical values and the values adjusted to the local climatic conditions. The simulation of water consumption based on meteorological data of historical series from 1961 to 2007 provided higher value of ETc when compared with the one obtained in the field. From the meteorological data of historical series, it was observed that the use of Kc recommended by FAO may overestimate the amount of irrigation water by 9%, over the same growing season.

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Some models have been developed using agrometeorological and remote sensing data to estimate agriculture production. However, it is expected that the use of SAR images can improve their performance. The main objective of this study was to estimate the sugarcane production using a multiple linear regression model which considers agronomic data and ALOS/PALSAR images obtained from 2007/08, 2008/09 and 2009/10 cropping seasons. The performance of models was evaluated by coefficient of determination, t-test, Willmott agreement index (d), random error and standard error. The model was able to explain 79%, 12% and 74% of the variation in the observed productions of the 2007/08, 2008/09 and 2009/10 cropping seasons, respectively. Performance of the model for the 2008/09 cropping season was poor because of the occurrence of a long period of drought in that season. When the three seasons were considered all together, the model explained 66% of the variation. Results showed that SAR-based yield prediction models can contribute and assist sugar mill technicians to improve such estimates.

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ABSTRACT Microsprinkler non-pressure compensating nozzles usually show water flow variation along the lateral line. This study aimed at adapting microtubes into non-compensating system of microsprinklers previous installed in the field, as a self-compensated nozzle, to improve the flow uniformity along the lateral line. Microtubes were adapted to three types of commercial microsprinklers. Tests were conducted, both in the laboratory and in field, to evaluate the microsprinkler performance at four different flows (40, 50, 60 and 70 L h-1) under pressure head range from 75 to 245 kPa. Nozzles presented coefficient of flow-rate variation (CVq) lower than 5.5% and distribution uniformity (DU) greater than 95%, which are classified as excellent. The original spatial water distribution of the microsprinkler did not change by using microtube as a nozzle. This device adapted to non-pressure compensating microsprinklers are functional and operate effectively with flows ranging up to 70 L h-1. Small variations at microsprinkler flows along the lateral line can occur, however, at random manner, which is common for pressure-compensating nozzles. Therefore, the microtube technique is able to control pressure variation in microsprinklers.

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A molecular epidemiological study was performed with Babesia bigemina isolates from five geographical regions of Brazil. The genetic analysis was done with random amplification of polymorphic DNA (RAPD), repetitive extragenic palindromic elements-polymerase chain reaction (REP-PCR) and enterobacterial repetitive intergenic consensus sequences-polymerase chain reaction (ERIC-PCR) that showed genetic polymorphism between these isolates and generated fingerprinting. In RAPD, ILO872 and ILO876 primers were able to detect at least one fingerprinting for each B. bigemina isolate. The amplification of B. bigemina DNA fragments by REP-PCR and ERIC-PCR gave evidence for the presence in this haemoprotozoan of the sequences described previously in microorganisms of the bacterial kingdom. For the first time it was demonstrated that both techniques can be used for genetic analysis of a protozoan parasite, although the ERIC-PCR was more discriminatory than REP-PCR. The dendogram with similarity coefficient among isolates showed two clusters and one subcluster. The Northeastern and Mid-Western isolates showed the greatest genetic diversity, while the Southeastern and Southern isolates were the closest. The antigenic analysis was done through indirect fluorescent antibody technique and Western blotting using a panel of monoclonal antibodies directed against epitopes on the merozoite membrane surface, rhoptries and membrane of infected erythrocytes. As expected, the merozoite variable surface antigens, major surface antigen (MSA)-1 and MSA-2 showed antigenic diversity. However, B cell epitopes on rhoptries and infected erythrocytes were conserved among all isolates studied. In this study it was possible to identify variable and conserved antigens, which had already been described as potential immunogens. Considering that an attenuated Babesia clone used as immunogen selected populations capable of evading the immunity induced by this vaccine, it is necessary to evaluate more deeply the cross-protection conferred by genetically more distant Brazilian B. bigemina isolates and make an evaluation of the polymorphism degree of variable antigens such as MSA-1 and MSA-2.