Máquinas de somar estocásticas e conjuntos de Julia

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Aplicação da Teoria das Filas no caixa rápido de um supermercado: estudo de caso microeconômico

A Pesquisa Operacional (PO) oferece ferramentas, usando modelos matemáticos, que descrevem situações do mundo real das empresas e do governo. Estes modelos permitem otimizar lucros ou minimizar custos através da Programação Linear (PL), considerada a maior descoberta da matemática aplicada do século XX. Sua aplicabilidade é imensa e a programação computacional é simples. Por exemplo, o uso de software como o Excel, garante encontrar a solução para problemas que podem envolver um número grande de variáveis e assim auxiliar os agentes na tomada de decisão. Vários Prêmios Nobel em Economia tiveram a PL envolvido em seu conteúdo, por exemplo, os prêmios dados a Leonid Kantorovich, Leonid Hurwicz, Tjalling Koopmans Kenneth, Kenneth J. Arrow e Robert Dorfman, Paul Samuelson e Robert Solow. A Teoria das Filas, utilizada neste trabalho, é uma ferramenta da PO que envolve distribuição de probabilidades e permite investigar a chegada e atendimento de clientes, a partir de certos números de canais disponíveis. O caso em análise é uma fila do caixa rápido do supermercado Oba Hortifruti, localizado na cidade de Indaiatuba - São Paulo. A fila possui característica M/M/1, no qual o primeiro M denota que a chegada de clientes à fila segue uma distribuição de Poisson, o segundo M denota que o tempo de atendimento dos clientes segue a distribuição Exponencial e o 1 significa que há apenas um canal de atendimento. A aplicação desta ferramenta sugere uma otimização do serviço para que o mesmo se torne estável (objetivo qualitativo), gerando assim uma maior satisfação do cliente com o atendimento, podendo elevar a margem de lucro do estabelecimento em estudo (objetivo quantitativo)

Estudo e análise estatística no mercado de ações brasileiro

The objective of this paper is to verify and analyze the existence in Brazil of stylized facts observed in financial time series: volatility clustering, probability distributions with fat tails, the presence of long run memory in absolute return time series, absence of linear return autocorrelation, gain/loss asymmetry, aggregative gaussianity, slow absolute return autocorrelation decay, trading volume/volatility correlation and leverage effect. We analyzed intraday prices for 10 stocks traded at the BM&FBovespa, responsible for 52.1% of the Ibovespa portfolio on Sept. 01, 2009. The data analysis confirms the stylized facts, whose behavior is consistent with what is observed in international markets.

Uma proposta de demarcação da análise descritiva do comportamento ordinal no contexto da literatura operante

A portion of operant literature supports significant production of knowledge about problem solving, observation response and contingency relations between responses with different probabilities of occurrence (Premack Principle). This study investigated possible convergences between a descriptive analysis of ordinal behavior and such portion of the operant literature. Conceptual and methodological analysis of publications have highlighted the relevance of the sequence of events functionally related to the characterization of the production of knowledge about problem solving, observation response and the Premack Principle enabling approaches between programs of research on complex behavioral repertoires as well as expansions in research strategies concerning ordinal responding.

Análise espacial do potencial fotovoltaico em telhados de residências usando modelagem hierárquica bayesiana

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Eficiência energética de sistemas de produção de mamona no Estado de Minas Gerais

The objective of this study is to determine the economical and energetic efficiency of the castor bean culture in "Zona da Mata" and South of Minas Gerais. Through the method of simulation "Monte Carlo", we verified the probabilities of occurrence of the economical, cultural and energetic efficiency indexes. In relation to the production systems of castor bean in Minas Gerais in the season 2005/2006, we established that the variables price and productivity were the most noticeable for the producers from "Zona da Mata", while in the South of Minas it was productivity. We verified that the probability of the economical efficiency index to be lower than one was 43,26% for the producers from "Zona da Mata" and 39,57% for the ones from the South of Minas. The medium price received covered the medium costs of production. However, we observed that the medium costs in these regions of Minas Gerais, were over the minimum price. Regarding the energetic analysis, the results showed that the systems in the regions studied in Minas Gerasi, presented average of cultural efficiency indexes of 8,26 and 18,89. We concluded that despite the result being favorable from the energetic point of view, from the economical sustainability point of view there is the need of a more effective support policy for the castor bean, taking into consideration that the expectations of the producers with PNPB were not confirmed.

Incorporação de incertezas associadas à predição de modelos hidrológicos aos instrumentos de gestão em recursos hídricos

Water management has in the watershed plans an important tool to plan the territory and adjust the activities develop over it to the natural resources availability. The incorporation of uncertainty analysis associated with hydrological modelling predictions is a manner to simulate scenarios and work with chances and probabilities that certain events happens inside these plans. Using stochastic methods is possible to consider uncertainty from estimations and even model it. Stochastic methods developed considerably during the last 30 years, but its applications to real-world problems have been limited, and did not turn into routine in hydrology. This paper brings an overview from eminent hydrologists about this subject and discuss the Brazilian and Paulista situation in the scope of groundwater monitoring.

Estimação espaço-temporal das perdas não técnicas no sistema de distribuição de energia elétrica

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Coordenadas vestidas: formulação segundo a interpretação de Dirac-Feynman para a mecânica quântica e aplicações em CQED

Pós-graduação em Física - IFT

Previsão de demanda de veículos automotores através do modelo de regressão linear múltipla

This study aimed to model a equation for the demand of automobiles and light commercial vehicles, based on the data from February 2007 to July 2014, through a multiple regression analysis. The literature review consists of an information collection of the history of automotive industry, and it has contributed to the understanding of the current crisis that affects this market, which consequence was a large reduction in sales. The model developed was evaluated by a residual analysis and also was used an adhesion test - F test - with a significance level of 5%. In addition, a coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.8159 was determined, indicating that 81.59% of the demand for automobiles and light commercial vehicles can be explained by the regression variables: interest rate, unemployment rate, broad consumer price index (CPI), gross domestic product (GDP) and tax on industrialized products (IPI). Finally, other ten samples, from August 2014 to May 2015, were tested in the model in order to validate its forecasting quality. Finally, a Monte Carlo Simulation was run in order to obtain a distribution of probabilities of future demands. It was observed that the actual demand in the period after the sample was in the range that was most likely to occur, and that the GDP and the CPI are the variable that have the greatest influence on the developed model

Aplicação do valor presente ajustado (APV) para avaliação do fluxo de caixa de uma empresa do setor automotivo no sistema inovar auto

The automobile industry shows relevance inside the Brazilian industrial scenario since it contributes with the development of a significant chain of supply, distributors, workshops, publicity agencies and insurance companies in the internal market, aside from being one of the five biggest worldwide market. Thereby, the federal government decreed in Dec, 17th 2012 by Law nº 12.715 the Inovar-Auto Program. As the Adjusted Present Value (APV) is highly recommended, although not yet widespread to public politics of tax reduction, this work intends to apply the APV method on the cash flow analysis of an automobile sector's company, which has recently installed in national territory and wants to rely with governmental incentives proposed by Inovar-Auto Program. The developed work evaluates the company's current cash flow stochastically from mathematical modeling of variables such as price, demand and interest rate through probability distributions with the assist of Crystal Ball software, a Microsoft Excel Add-in, generating different scenarios from Monte Carlo Simulation. As results probabilities situations have been evaluated until the end of the Inovar-Auto's conducted period, in 2017. Beside APV others indicator such as Internal Rate of Return (IRR) and payback period were estimated for the investment project. For APV a sampling distribution with only 0.057% of risk, IRR of 29% were obtained and estimated project payback period was 4.13 years

Previsão de demanda de veículos automotores através do modelo de regressão linear múltipla

This study aimed to model a equation for the demand of automobiles and light commercial vehicles, based on the data from February 2007 to July 2014, through a multiple regression analysis. The literature review consists of an information collection of the history of automotive industry, and it has contributed to the understanding of the current crisis that affects this market, which consequence was a large reduction in sales. The model developed was evaluated by a residual analysis and also was used an adhesion test - F test - with a significance level of 5%. In addition, a coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.8159 was determined, indicating that 81.59% of the demand for automobiles and light commercial vehicles can be explained by the regression variables: interest rate, unemployment rate, broad consumer price index (CPI), gross domestic product (GDP) and tax on industrialized products (IPI). Finally, other ten samples, from August 2014 to May 2015, were tested in the model in order to validate its forecasting quality. Finally, a Monte Carlo Simulation was run in order to obtain a distribution of probabilities of future demands. It was observed that the actual demand in the period after the sample was in the range that was most likely to occur, and that the GDP and the CPI are the variable that have the greatest influence on the developed model

Aplicação do valor presente ajustado (APV) para avaliação do fluxo de caixa de uma empresa do setor automotivo no sistema inovar auto

The automobile industry shows relevance inside the Brazilian industrial scenario since it contributes with the development of a significant chain of supply, distributors, workshops, publicity agencies and insurance companies in the internal market, aside from being one of the five biggest worldwide market. Thereby, the federal government decreed in Dec, 17th 2012 by Law nº 12.715 the Inovar-Auto Program. As the Adjusted Present Value (APV) is highly recommended, although not yet widespread to public politics of tax reduction, this work intends to apply the APV method on the cash flow analysis of an automobile sector's company, which has recently installed in national territory and wants to rely with governmental incentives proposed by Inovar-Auto Program. The developed work evaluates the company's current cash flow stochastically from mathematical modeling of variables such as price, demand and interest rate through probability distributions with the assist of Crystal Ball software, a Microsoft Excel Add-in, generating different scenarios from Monte Carlo Simulation. As results probabilities situations have been evaluated until the end of the Inovar-Auto's conducted period, in 2017. Beside APV others indicator such as Internal Rate of Return (IRR) and payback period were estimated for the investment project. For APV a sampling distribution with only 0.057% of risk, IRR of 29% were obtained and estimated project payback period was 4.13 years

Immunohistochemical evaluation of MMP-2, MMP-9 and CD31/microvascular density in squamous cell carcinomas of the floor of the mouth

The aim of this study was to evaluate the immunoexpression of MMP-2, MMP-9 and CD31/microvascular density in squamous cell carcinomas of the floor of the mouth and to correlate the results with demographic, survival, clinical (TNM staging) and histopathological variables (tumor grade, perineural invasion, embolization and bone invasion). Data from medical records and diagnoses of 41 patients were reviewed. Histological sections were subjected to immunostaining using primary antibodies for human MMP-2, MMP-9 and CD31 and streptavidin-biotin-immunoperoxidase system. Histomorphometric analyses quantified positivity for MMPs (20 fields per slide, 100?points grade, ×200) and for CD31 (microvessels <50?µm in the area of the highest vascularization, 5 fields per slide, 100?points grade, ×400). Statistical design was composed by non-parametric Mann-Whitney U test (investigating the association between numerical variables and immunostainings), chi-square frequency test (in contingency tables), Fisher's exact test (when at least one expected frequency was less than 5 in 2×2 tables), Kaplan-Meier method (estimated probabilities of overall survival) and Iogrank test (comparison of survival curves), all with a significance level of 5%. There was a statistically significant correlation between immunostaining for MMP-2 and lymph node metastasis. Factors associated negatively with survival were N stage, histopathological grade, perineural invasion and immunostaining for MMP-9. There was no significant association between immunoexpression of CD31 and the other variables. The intensity of immunostaining for MMP-2 can be indicative of metastasis in lymph nodes and for MMP-9 of a lower probability of survival

Contribuciones a la gestión de los recursos radio en redes móviles celulares de radio paquetes con soporte de calidad de servicio

Programa de doctorado: Tecnología de las Telecomunicaciones