880 resultados para Predictive Value Of Tests


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Reviews the literature to provide an overview of the historical significance of the elephant in Sri Lankan society, an association which dates back more than 4,000 years. The present status of this relationship assessed on the basis of the findings of a recent study undertaken on the total economic value of elephants in Sri Lanka. This paper, first briefly outlines the history, evolution, nature and their distribution of the Asian elephant while providing some insights on the status of the elephant (Elephas maxima maxima) in Sri Lanka. Next, it reviews the literature in order to assess the historical affiliation that the elephant has maintained with the Sri Lankan society, its culture, history, mythology and religion. The empirical evidence on the economic value of conservation of the remaining elephant population in Sri Lanka is reviewed and the Sri Lankan people’s attitudes towards conserving this species of wildlife. Literature reviewed and analysis undertaken indicates that the elephant in Sri Lanka, still, as in the past has a special place in Sri Lankan society, particularly, in its culture, religion and value system. Thus, there is a strong case for ensuring the survival of wild elephant population in Sri Lanka. Furthermore, it also suggests that the community as a whole will experience a net benefit from ensuring the survival of wild elephants in Sri Lanka.

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Objective: premature infants are at increased risk of developmental disability. Early identification of problems allows intervention to ameliorate or attenuate problems. A reliable screening tool allows triage of children in this high-risk population by identifying those unlikely to need full developmental assessment. To explore the test characteristics of an established parent-completed developmental assessment questionnaire 'Ages and Stages Questionnaire' (ASQ) in follow up of an Australian population of premature infants. Methodology: One hundred and sixty-seven children born prematurely with corrected ages 12- to 48-months attending the Growth and Development Clinic at the Mater Children's Hospital in Brisbane, Queensland, Australia; 136 questionnaires 'ASQ' were returned completed (81%) and were compared to formal psychometric assessment (Griffith Mental Development Scales for 12- and 24-months, Bayley Mental Development Intelligence Scale for 18-months, McCarthy General Cognitive Intelligence Scale for 18-months). Developmental delay was considered to be present if any of the above psychometric assessments fell below 1.0 standard deviations (SD). The ASQ cut-off used was 2.0 SD (US data derived means and SD). Results: Aggregate results for all age groups comparing ASQ to psychometric assessments as 'gold standards' found the ASQ to have the following test characteristics: sensitivity (90%); specificity (77%); positive predictive value (40%); negative predictive value (98%): % over-referred (20%); % under-referred (1%); % agreement (79%). likelihood ratio for children failing the ASQ was 3.8 and for passing the ASQ was 0.13. Twenty-one children with known disabilities were included in the study and in 14 of these, the ASQ overall score agreed with the psychometric assessment (67%). Conclusion: The high negative predictive value of the ASQ supports its use as a screening tool for cognitive and motor delays in the follow up of ex-premature infants. This would need to be combined with other strategies as part of a comprehensive follow up program for ex-premature infants.

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One hundred and eight samples from three cultivars of alfalfa were obtained from three cuttings in 1996-1998 to evaluate the relationship between crude protein (CP) and mineral concentrations of alfalfa with cutting and maturation. The CP content drastically decreased from 27.9 to 11.4% on DM with maturity. Highly positive correlations were observed between CP and K in the first and the second cutting of alfalfa. The Ca content remained almost constant throughout the growth period. Four multiparous Holstein cows were assigned an alfalfa silage diet or an orchardgrass silage diet from 3 weeks prepartum to 1 week postpartum to examine the effect on the mineral balance. In the prepartum and postpartum diet, the roughage to concentrate ratio was 70:30 and 50:50, with alfalfa being 50 and 100% of the roughage, respectively. The alfalfa contained 1.93% of K. No metabolic disorders occurred, but the body weight decreased drastically from 1 to 6 days postpartum with each diet because of the high milk production immediately after the parturition. Positive retention of N, Ca, P, Mg, and K was observed prepartum, whereas the cows had negative N and mineral retention from 2 to 4 days postpartum. The Ca and P absorption, and Mg retention of cows with the alfalfa diet were higher than with the grass diet. The plasma Ca and inorganic P were not affected by diet, but the plasma PTH at parturition and plasma hydroxyproline from 1 week prepartum to 1 week postpartum were higher with the alfalfa diet. These results suggest that the low K alfalfa is suitable not only to prevent the incidence of milk fever but also to increase Ca, P and Mg utilization of periparturient cows, but the mineral supplementation is needed for the postpartum cows immediately after the parturition. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

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A series of laboratory and animal studies examined the use of chemical and biological agents to enhance the digestibility of Rhodes grass (grass) cut at 60 (young) and 100 (mature) days of regrowth and ensiled as big round bales. The treatments included an untreated control (C), a microbial inoculant (I), NaOH, CaO and NaOH plus inoculant (NaOH + I). Inoculant was grown anaerobically, using a starter culture of rumen fluid from cattle given Rhodes grass. Treatments C, 1, NaOH, NaOH + I, were offered separately to twelve dairy heifers, in a 3 X 4 randomized complete block design, repeated twice for each grass silage. C and I had substantial mould growth, compared with no visible mould in NaOH or NaOH + 1. CaO treatment was effective in preventing mould growth, but had little effect on the chemical composition and in sacco digestibility of mature grass silage. NaOH reduced NDF content and increased in sacco digestibility (P < 0.05) but not the in vivo digestibility (P > 0.05) of both mature- and young-grass silage. The effects of other treatments on nutritive value were non-significant at both stages of maturity. NaOH increased the intake of mature-grass silage by 24-26% (P < 0.05), but had little effect on the intake of young-grass silage (P > 0.05). Treatment I consistently reduced grass silage intake (P < 005) for young-grass silage. The findings of these studies show that treating mature Rhodes grass with NaOH will improve its nutritive value and reduce mould growth in conserved herbage. However none of the treatments in this study had any consistently positive effects on the in vivo nutritive value or storage quality of young-grass silage.

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A firm's prior knowledge facilitates the absorption of new knowledge, thereby renewing a firm's systematic search, transfer and absorption capabilities. The rapidly expanding field of biotechnology is characterised by the convergence of disparate sciences and technologies. This paper, the shift from proteinbased to DNA-based diagnostic technologies, quantifies the value of a firm's prior knowledge and its relation to future knowledge development. Four dimensions of diagnostic and four dimensions of knowledge in biotechnology firms are analysed. A simple scaled matrix method is developed to quantify the positive and negative heuristic values of prior scientific and technological knowledge that is useful for the acquisition and absorption of new knowledge.

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Objectives: To examine associations between nutrition screening checklists and the health of older women. Design: Cross-sectional postal survey including measures of health and health service utilisation, as well as the Australian Nutrition Screening Initiative (ANSI), adapted from the Nutrition Screening Initiative (NSI). Setting: Australia, 1996. Subjects: In total, 12 939 women aged 70-75 years randomly selected as part of the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health. Results: Responses to individual items in the ANSI checklist, and ANSI and NSI scores, were associated with measures of health and health service utilisation. Women with high ANSI and NSI scores had poorer physical and mental health, higher health care utilisation and were less likely to be in the acceptable weight range. The performance of an unweighted score (TSI) was also examined and showed similar results. Whereas ANSI classified 30% of the women as 'high-risk', only 13% and 12% were classified as 'high-risk' by the NSI and TSI, respectively. However, for identifying women with body mass index outside the acceptable range, sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive values for all of these checklists were less than 60%. Conclusions: Higher scores on both the ANSI and NSI are associated with poorer health. The simpler unweighted method of scoring the ANSI (TSI) showed better discrimination for the identification of 'at risk' women than the weighted ANSI method. The predictive value of individual items and the checklist scores need to be examined longitudinally.

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Objectives. This study aimed to determine the incidence of abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) in a large group of siblings of Australian AAA patients to determine if screening in this group is justified. Methods. 1254 siblings of 400 index AAA patients were identified and offered aortic ultrasound screening. An age and sex matched control group was recruited from patients having abdominal CT scans for non-vascular indications. AAA was defined by an infrarenal aortic diameter of greater than or equal to3 cm or a ratio of the infrarenal to suprarenal aortic diameter of greater than or equal to2.0. A ratio of 1.0-1.5 was considered normal, and a ratio of >1.5 to

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Idiosyncratic markers are features of genes and genomes that are so unusual that it is unlikely that they evolved more than once in a lineage of organisms. Here we explore further the potential of idiosyncratic markers and changes to typically conserved tRNA sequences for phylogenetic inference. Hard ticks were chosen as the model group because their phylogeny has been studied extensively. Fifty-eight candidate markers from hard ticks ( family Ixodidae) and 22 markers from the subfamily Rhipicephalinae sensu lato were mapped onto phylogenies of these groups. Two of the most interesting markers, features of the secondary structure of two different tRNAs, gave strong support to the hypothesis that species of the Prostriata ( Ixodes spp.) are monophyletic. Previous analyses of genes and morphology did not strongly support this relationship, instead suggesting that the Prostriata is paraphyletic with respect to the Metastriata ( the rest of the hard ticks). Parallel or convergent evolution was not found in the arrangements of mitochondrial genes in ticks nor were there any reversals to the ancestral arthropod character state. Many of the markers identified were phylogenetically informative, whereas others should be informative with study of additional taxa. Idiosyncratic markers and changes to typically conserved nucleotides in tRNAs that are phylogenetically informative were common in this data set, and thus these types of markers might be found in other organisms.

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1. Two broiler experiments and a layer experiments were conducted on Kunitz trypsin inhibitor (Kti) soybeans (SB) of low trypsin inhibitor (TI) activity to determine their nutritive value when included as mash in least-cost poultry diets. 2. Experiment 1 compared chick performance on the Kti or raw SB using a commercial full-fat SB meal (FFSBM) and a solvent extracted SB meal (SBM) as controls during a 20 d experimental period. Broiler experiment 2 compared Kti and raw SB, non-steamed, or steam-pelleted with and without DL-methionine supplementation added to every treatment containing 170 g SB/kg. For each broiler experiment the levels of each SB were 70, 120 and 170 g/kg with the control birds fed only 170 g SB/kg. 3. The layer experiment, compared steam-pelleted Kti and raw SB against a non-steamed Kti and raw SB each fed at two levels (70 and 110 g/kg) x 30 replicates from 29 weeks of age for 19 weeks in a completely randomised design. Production parameters were measured when diets were formulated to contain minimum required specifications and calculated apparent metabolisable energy (AME). At the completion of each trial, 2 broiler birds from each cage and 5 layer birds per treatment were killed, weighed, and their liver and pancreas weighed. 4. Both broiler experiments indicated that production parameters on the Kti SB treatments were significantly lower (P < 0.05) than on the two commercial control SB treatments. However, the Kti treatments were superior to the raw SB treatments. 5. Pancreas weight increased with increasing inclusion of both raw and Kti SB, suggesting that a TI was causing the depression in performance. The AME of the Kti SB was similar to that of commercial FFSB meal. After steam conditioning, the raw SB meal AME value of 9.5 MJ/kg dry matter (DM) was improved to 14.1 MJ/kg DM by reduced TI activity, but this AME improvement with TI activity reduction, plus the supplementation with DL-methionine on birds fed the raw SB had no effect (P > 0.05) on any parameter evaluated in experiment 2. 6. The layer experiment showed that hens on the Kti SB treatments had significantly greater live weight gain (LWG), egg weight and daily egg mass than birds given raw SB. A reduced food intake (FI) was observed in the Kti treatments but egg mass was generally similar to that on the FFSB control diet, indicating that Kti SB supported excellent egg production at an inclusion of 110 g/kg. The depressed performance observed for broiler chicks suggest that younger birds are more susceptible to the effects of SB TI.

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The use of a fitted parameter watershed model to address water quantity and quality management issues requires that it be calibrated under a wide range of hydrologic conditions. However, rarely does model calibration result in a unique parameter set. Parameter nonuniqueness can lead to predictive nonuniqueness. The extent of model predictive uncertainty should be investigated if management decisions are to be based on model projections. Using models built for four neighboring watersheds in the Neuse River Basin of North Carolina, the application of the automated parameter optimization software PEST in conjunction with the Hydrologic Simulation Program Fortran (HSPF) is demonstrated. Parameter nonuniqueness is illustrated, and a method is presented for calculating many different sets of parameters, all of which acceptably calibrate a watershed model. A regularization methodology is discussed in which models for similar watersheds can be calibrated simultaneously. Using this method, parameter differences between watershed models can be minimized while maintaining fit between model outputs and field observations. In recognition of the fact that parameter nonuniqueness and predictive uncertainty are inherent to the modeling process, PEST's nonlinear predictive analysis functionality is then used to explore the extent of model predictive uncertainty.