Monitoring the decreasing trend of testicular cancer mortality in Spain during 2005-2019 through a Bayesian approach

Purpose : To assess time trends of testicular cancer (TC) mortality in Spain for period 1985-2019 for age groups 15-74 years old through a Bayesian age-period-cohort (APC) analysis. Methods: A Bayesian age-drift model has been fitted to describe trends. Projections for 2005-2019 have been calculated by means of an autoregressive APC model. Prior precision for these parameters has been selected through evaluation of an adaptive precision parameter and 95% credible intervals (95% CRI) have been obtained for each model parameter. Results: A decrease of -2.41% (95% CRI: -3.65%; -1.13%) per year has been found for TC mortality rates in age groups 15-74 during 1985-2004, whereas mortality showed a lower annual decrease when data was restricted to age groups 15-54 (-1.18%; 95% CRI: -2.60%; -0.31%). During 2005-2019 is expected a decrease of TC mortality of 2.30% per year for men younger than 35, whereas a leveling off for TC mortality rates is expected for men older than 35. Conclusions: A Bayesian approach should be recommended to describe and project time trends for those diseases with low number of cases. Through this model it has been assessed that management of TC and advances in therapy led to decreasing trend of TC mortality during the period 1985-2004, whereas a leveling off for these trends can be considered during 2005-2019 among men older than 35.

Rockfall monitoring by Terrestrial Laser Scanning ¿ case study of the basaltic rock face at Castellfollit de la Roca (Catalonia, Spain)

This case study deals with a rock face monitoring in urban areas using a Terrestrial Laser Scanner. The pilot study area is an almost vertical, fifty meter high cliff, on top of which the village of Castellfollit de la Roca is located. Rockfall activity is currently causing a retreat of the rock face, which may endanger the houses located at its edge. TLS datasets consist of high density 3-D point clouds acquired from five stations, nine times in a time span of 22 months (from March 2006 to January 2008). The change detection, i.e. rockfalls, was performed through a sequential comparison of datasets. Two types of mass movement were detected in the monitoring period: (a) detachment of single basaltic columns, with magnitudes below 1.5 m3 and (b) detachment of groups of columns, with magnitudes of 1.5 to 150 m3. Furthermore, the historical record revealed (c) the occurrence of slab failures with magnitudes higher than 150 m3. Displacements of a likely slab failure were measured, suggesting an apparent stationary stage. Even failures are clearly episodic, our results, together with the study of the historical record, enabled us to estimate a mean detachment of material from 46 to 91.5 m3 year¿1. The application of TLS considerably improved our understanding of rockfall phenomena in the study area.

Cultural events and tourist development in Catalonia (Spain)

From the point of view of local development cultural tourism events represent an opportunity since they are distributed homogeneously by the Catalan territory and are experiencing a vertiginous growth as a way to differentiate the existing supply. In our study a sample of 264 telephone surveys made to organizers of events in Catalonia has been compiled, with the purpose of characterizing the existing supply, thematic typologies, management models, commercialization inputs and economic impact. The results allow us to characterize events from the point of view of their tourist potential. Finally some recommendations are set out to develop future tourism policies based on events according to product differentiation, seasonality, competitiveness and creativity.

Future trends of the World Wide Web in the food and beverage sector in Spain

Extended abstract.

Marmora at the Tarraco of the Antonines: the assemblage of Sant Pau and Santa Tecla Hospital (Tarragona, Spain)

This paper presents an assemblage of marmora found during the archaeological excavation undertaken in 1992, a small part of the site where the Hospital of Sant Pau and Santa Tecla stands today, at Rambla Vella of Tarragona (Spain). Most of them are coloured marmora from a wide range of quarries: not only local (Santa Tecla stone, Alcover stone) and regional (broccatello) but also imported, such as giallo antico, pavonnazzetto, africano, portasanta, porfido rosso, serpentino, breccia di Settebasi. Even though some fine-grained, white marble fragments were also found, they are not being discussed here. Despite the small number of fragments recovered, this set is highly interesting as they were found in a clear, well-dated stratigraphical context: a soil from 125-150 AD that filled up some sort of building from Augustan times. The location of the site, on the limits of the upper part of the town, which was devoted to public areas (mainly related to the imperial worship, the provincial government and public), and the lower part of Tarraco, where the other activities (residential, colonial govern, etc) took place, is also significant. Therefore, both its location and its date are significant, as during this period the upper part of Roman Tarraco underwent major urban modifications which gave it the magnificence worthy of the capital of the largest province of the western part of Roman Empire.

The effects of regional educational policies on school failure in Spain

This paper presents a regional analysis of the effects of educational policies implemented in Spain between 1992 and 2003, focusing specifically on school failure rates. We consider the impact of expenditure per pupil, class size, and pupil-teacher ratio on dropout rates at the end of compulsory education and on the proportion of early school-leavers in the 18-24 year age group. Our results indicate that higher levels of educational expenditure per pupil and lower class sizes and pupil-teacher ratios reduce rates of dropout and early school-leaving (although class-size is not always significant). However, the magnitude of the effects of these variables is small at the average level.

How Spanish in an American film is rendered in translation: dubbing Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid in Spain

This is a case study of the Spanish dubbed version of Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid (George Roy Hill 1969) to illustrate and further develop the concept of L3 as a language that appears in source texts and their translations. L3 is distinguishable from the main language(s), L1 for the source text and L2 for the translation, based on a model proposed by Corrius and Zabalbeascoa 2011, and Corrius 2008. The study reveals various possible ways of rendering L3 in translation, in particular when L3 happens to coincide with L2. It also looks into the effect that certain translation solutions may have on intratextual translation and metatranslation.

Forecasting coal resources and reserves in heterogeneous coal zones using 3D facies models (As Pontes Basin, NW Spain)

Forecasting coal resources and reserves is critical for coal mine development. Thickness maps are commonly used for assessing coal resources and reserves; however they are limited for capturing coal splitting effects in thick and heterogeneous coal zones. As an alternative, three-dimensional geostatistical methods are used to populate facies distributionwithin a densely drilled heterogeneous coal zone in the As Pontes Basin (NWSpain). Coal distribution in this zone is mainly characterized by coal-dominated areas in the central parts of the basin interfingering with terrigenous-dominated alluvial fan zones at the margins. The three-dimensional models obtained are applied to forecast coal resources and reserves. Predictions using subsets of the entire dataset are also generated to understand the performance of methods under limited data constraints. Three-dimensional facies interpolation methods tend to overestimate coal resources and reserves due to interpolation smoothing. Facies simulation methods yield similar resource predictions than conventional thickness map approximations. Reserves predicted by facies simulation methods are mainly influenced by: a) the specific coal proportion threshold used to determine if a block can be recovered or not, and b) the capability of the modelling strategy to reproduce areal trends in coal proportions and splitting between coal-dominated and terrigenousdominated areas of the basin. Reserves predictions differ between the simulation methods, even with dense conditioning datasets. Simulation methods can be ranked according to the correlation of their outputs with predictions from the directly interpolated coal proportion maps: a) with low-density datasets sequential indicator simulation with trends yields the best correlation, b) with high-density datasets sequential indicator simulation with post-processing yields the best correlation, because the areal trends are provided implicitly by the dense conditioning data.

Concentrations of resveratrol and derivatives in foods and estimation of dietary intake in a Spanish population: European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-Spain cohort

Resveratrol has been shown to have beneficial effects on diseases related to oxidant and/or inflammatory processes and extends the lifespan of simple organisms including rodents. The objective of the present study was to estimate the dietary intake of resveratrol and piceid (R&P) present in foods, and to identify the principal dietary sources of these compounds in the Spanish adult population. For this purpose, a food composition database (FCDB) of R&P in Spanish foods was compiled. The study included 40 685 subjects aged 3564 years from northern and southern regions of Spain who were included in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-Spain cohort. Usual food intake was assessed by personal interviews using a computerised version of a validated diet history method. An FCDB with 160 items was compiled. The estimated median and mean of R&P intake were 100 and 933 mg/d respectively. Approximately, 32% of the population did not consume RΠ The most abundant of the four stilbenes studied was trans-piceid (53·6 %), followed by trans-resveratrol (20·9 %), cis-piceid (19·3 %) and cis-resveratrol (6·2 %). The most important source of R&P was wines (98·4 %) and grape and grape juices (1·6 %), whereas peanuts, pistachios and berries contributed to less than 0·01 %. For this reason the pattern of intake of R&P was similar to the wine pattern. This is the first time that R&P intake has been estimated in a Mediterranean country.

Consumption of macrophytes by invertebrates in Tancada lagoon (NE Spain)

Gammarus aequicauda and Sphaeroma hookeri are the most abundant macroinvertebrates on Ruppia cirrhosa (1275 and 1290 individuals.m-2) and Potamogeton pectinatus (140 and 680 individuals. m-2) in Tancada lagoon, a Mediterranean coastal lagoon in the Ebro Delta (NE Spain). Consumption and assimilation efficiencies were calculated from bell jar experiments. Gammarus grazing effects are higher than Sphaeroma on both Ruppia cirrhosa and Potamogeton pectinatus. Green Ruppia leaves lost 0.3 mg per mg Gammarus per day, while Potamogeton leaves lost 0.2 mg per mg Gammarus per day. Decomposing Ruppia leaves lost 0.35-0.54 mg per mg Gammarus per day. Losses of weight by both Ruppia and Potamogeton due to Sphaeroma feeding were less than half those by Gammarus. Assimilation efficiencies are higher for Gammarus (44-78% feeding on Ruppia 2% feeding on Potamogeton) than for Sphaeroma (26-48%) feeding on Ruppia). These assimilation efficiencies were higher than those reported by other authors working at higher latitudes perhaps because of the higher temperature under which the experiments were carried out.

Laboratory diagnosis of brucellosis in a rural endemic area in northeastern Spain

Sera obtained from 62 patients from four mountain counties in Catalonia (Northeastern Spain), in whom brucellosis had been diagnosed on the basis of clinical evidence and/or personal history, were analyzed using the rose Bengal test, standard serum agglutination test (SAT), Coombs" test, ELISA, and complement fixation. The diagnosis was further confirmed through blood cultures. Clinical evidence, epidemiology, and the results from serologic tests were used to assign patients to one of two groups: group 1 (n = 38) patients had primary infections, whereas group 2 (n = 24) patients had been previously exposed to the microorganism, i.e. re-infection of group 2 individuals occurred after long periods of time during which no active infection by Brucella had been detected. Receivingoperating charts (ROC) were used to determine the diagnostic value of the different tests and to establish discriminant values. Blood culture was a valuable diagnostic tool in group 1 (0.92 sensitivity) but was inappropriate in group 2 (0.08). The combination of positive rose Bengal test and agglutination ≥1/160 was valid for diagnosis in group 1. In group 2, agglutination < 1/160 (including negative agglutination) did not rule out brucellosis. The combination of positive rose Bengal test and Coombs" test ≥1/320 was the best diagnostic criterion (0.8 specificity; 1 sensitivity). ELISA (for IgG, IgM, or both) did not improve diagnostic accuracy

A germination study of herbicide-resistant field poppies in Spain

Field poppy, Papaver rhoeas L., is a very common weed in winter cereals in North-Eastern Spain. Its control is becoming difficult due to expanding herbicide resistance. To control field poppies there are alternative strategies such as non-chemical control that take into account the weed emergence period. However, there is a lack of knowledge of P. rhoeas emergence patterns in semi-arid conditions. Thus, here we conducted pot experiments on the emergence of P. rhoeas. We aimed to describe the emergence period and to quantify the emergence of a susceptible and of a herbicide-resistant P. rhoeas population at two locations in Catalonia, Spain, from 1998 to 2001 and until 2004 at one of them. Therefore, pots containing seeds of both populations were established at the two locations and emergence was recorded monthly. We studied the origin of the population, the sowing location, the effect of cultivation and the sowing year. First, we found that the main emergence peaks in our experiments occurred in autumn, accounting for between 65.7 and 98.5% of the annual emergence from October to December, and only little emergence was recorded in spring. This emergence pattern is different from those found in the literature corresponding to Northern European countries, where in some cases main flushes occur only in autumn, in spring and winter or only in spring. The emergence was mainly affected by cultivation, but the effect of light stimulus was observed several months later. As a consequence, cultivation should be done in early autumn, promoting emergence during the whole autumn and winter so that emerged seedlings can be controlled before sowing a spring crop. Second, most experiments showed that the emergence was significantly higher in the first autumn than in the following seasons, e.g. 4.1% emergence in the first year and only 2.1, 2.3, 0.5 and 0.6% new emergence at one of the locations for the second, third, fourth and fifth years. Thus, after having a severe P. rhoeas infestation causing a big seed rain, emergence should be stimulated by autumn cultivation in the following season and seedlings controlled by trying to deplete the soil seed bank as much as possible. Despite the fact that emergence will be staggered throughout several years and that there was a significant relationship between rainfall and emergence, so that dry years will cause a smaller emergence rate of the weed, these findings define a cultural management strategy to reduce P. rhoeas infestations and to contribute to integrated weed management strategies combining it with other tools.

Comparison between land suitability and actual crop distribution in an irrigation district of the Ebro valley (Spain)

El objetivo de la presente investigación fue analizar la correspondencia entre los resultados de una evaluación de tierras con la distribución real de los cultivos. Para ello la aptitud biofísica de las tierras se comparó con diferentes tipologías de frecuencia de ocurrencia de los cultivos y rotaciones derivadas de mapas de cultivos multitemporales. La investigación fue llevada a cabo en el distrito de riego de Flumen (33.000 ha), localizado en el valle del Ebro (NE España). La evaluación de tierras se basó en una cartografía de suelos 1:100.000, según el esquema FAO, para los principales cultivos presentes en el área de estudio (alfalfa, cereales de invierno, maíz, arroz y girasol). Se utilizaron tres mapas de frecuencia de cultivos y un mapa de rotaciones, derivado de una serie temporal de imágenes Landsat TM y ETM+ del periodo 1993-2000, y se compararon con los mapas de aptitud de tierras para los diferentes cultivos. Se analizó estadísticamente (Pearson χ2, Cramer V, Gamma y Somers D) la relación entre los dos tipos de variables. Los resultados muestran la existencia de una relación significativa (P=0,001) entre la localización de los cultivos y la idoneidad de las tierras, excepto de cultivos oportunistas como el girasol, muy influenciado por las subvenciones en el periodo estudiado. Las rotaciones basadas en la alfalfa muestran los mayores porcentajes (52%) de ocupación en las tierras más aptas para la agricultura en el área de estudio. El presente enfoque multitemporal de análisis de la información ofrece una visión más real que la comparación entre un mapa de evaluación de tierras y un mapa de cultivos de una fecha determinada, cuando se valora el grado de acuerdo entre las recomendaciones sobre la aptitud de las tierras y los cultivos realmente cultivados por los agricultores.

Breast cancer incidence and overdiagnosis in Catalonia (Spain)

Introduction: Early detection of breast cancer (BC) with mammography may cause overdiagnosis and overtreatment, detecting tumors which would remain undiagnosed during a lifetime. The aims of this study were: first, to model invasive BC incidence trends in Catalonia (Spain) taking into account reproductive and screening data; and second, to quantify the extent of BC overdiagnosis. Methods: We modeled the incidence of invasive BC using a Poisson regression model. Explanatory variables were: age at diagnosis and cohort characteristics (completed fertility rate, percentage of women that use mammography at age 50, and year of birth). This model also was used to estimate the background incidence in the absence of screening. We used a probabilistic model to estimate the expected BC incidence if women in the population used mammography as reported in health surveys. The difference between the observed and expected cumulative incidences provided an estimate of overdiagnosis. Results: Incidence of invasive BC increased, especially in cohorts born from 1940 to 1955. The biggest increase was observed in these cohorts between the ages of 50 to 65 years, where the final BC incidence rates more than doubled the initial ones. Dissemination of mammography was significantly associated with BC incidence and overdiagnosis. Our estimates of overdiagnosis ranged from 0.4% to 46.6%, for women born around 1935 and 1950, respectively. Conclusions: Our results support the existence of overdiagnosis in Catalonia attributed to mammography usage, and the limited malignant potential of some tumors may play an important role. Women should be better informed about this risk. Research should be oriented towards personalized screening and risk assessment tools.