Cardiovascular Risk Prediction with Ultrasound

This paper addresses primary care physicians, cardiologists, internists, angiologists and doctors desirous of improving vascular risk prediction in primary care. Many cardiovascular risk factors act aggressively on the arterial wall and result in atherosclerosis and atherothrombosis. Cardiovascular prognosis derived from ultrasound imaging is, however, excellent in subjects without formation of intimal thickening or atheromas. Since ultrasound visualises the arterial wall directly, the information derived from the arterial wall may add independent incremental information to the knowledge of risk derived from global risk assessment. This paper provides an overview on plaque imaging for vascular risk prediction in two parts: Part 1: Carotid IMT is frequently used as a surrogate marker for outcome in intervention studies addressing rather large cohorts of subjects. Carotid IMT as a risk prediction tool for the prevention of acute myocardial infarction and stroke has been extensively studied in many patients since 1987, and has yielded incremental hazard ratios for these cardiovascular events independently of established cardiovascular risk factors. However, carotid IMT measurements are not used uniformly and therefore still lack widely accepted standardisation. Hence, at an individual, practicebased level, carotid IMT is not recommended as a risk assessment tool. The total plaque area of the carotid arteries (TPA) is a measure of the global plaque burden within both carotid arteries. It was recently shown in a large Norwegian cohort involving over 6000 subjects that TPA is a very good predictor for future myocardial infarction in women with an area under the curve (AUC) using a receiver operating curves (ROC) value of 0.73 (in men: 0.63). Further, the AUC for risk prediction is high both for vascular death in a vascular prevention clinic group (AUC 0.77) and fatal or nonfatal myocardial infarction in a true primary care group (AUC 0.79). Since TPA has acceptable reproducibility, allows calculation of posttest risk and is easily obtained at low cost, this risk assessment tool may come in for more widespread use in the future and also serve as a tool for atherosclerosis tracking and guidance for intensity of preventive therapy. However, more studies with TPA are needed. Part 2: Carotid and femoral plaque formation as detected by ultrasound offers a global view of the extent of atherosclerosis. Several prospective cohort studies have shown that cardiovascular risk prediction is greater for plaques than for carotid IMT. The number of arterial beds affected by significant atheromas may simply be added numerically to derive additional information on the risk of vascular events. A new atherosclerosis burden score (ABS) simply calculates the sum of carotid and femoral plaques encountered during ultrasound scanning. ABS correlates well and independently with the presence of coronary atherosclerosis and stenosis as measured by invasive coronary angiogram. However, the prognostic power of ABS as an independent marker of risk still needs to be elucidated in prospective studies. In summary, the large number of ways to measure atherosclerosis and related changes in human arteries by ultrasound indicates that this technology is not yet sufficiently perfected and needs more standardisation and workup on clearly defined outcome studies before it can be recommended as a practice-based additional risk modifier.

Meta-analysis : subclinical thyroid dysfunction and the risk for coronary heart disease and mortality

Rapport de synthèse : Description : ce travail de thèse évalue de façon systématique les études sur l'association entre les dysfonctions thyroïdiennes infracliniques d'une part, et la maladie coronarienne et la mortalité d'autre part. Les hypothyroïdies infracliniques affectent environ 4-5% de la population adulte alors que la prévalence de l'hyperthyroïdie infraclinique est inférieure (environ 1%). L'éventuelle association entre elles pourrait justifier un dépistage systématique des dysfonctions thyroïdiennes infracliniques. Les précédentes études sur l'association entre l'hypothyroïdie infraclinique et la maladie coronarienne ont donné des résultats conflictuels. La parution de nouveaux articles récents basés sur de grandes cohortes prospectives nous a permis d'effectuer une méta-analyse basée uniquement sur des études de cohorte prospectives, augmentant ainsi la validité des résultats. Résultats: 10 des 12 études identifiées pour notre revue systématique sont basées sur des cohortes issues de la population générale («population-based »), regroupant en tout 14 449 participants. Ces 10 études examinent toutes le risque associé à l'hypothyroïdie infraclinique (avec 2134 événements coronariens et 2822 décès), alors que 5 étudient également le risque associé à l'hyperthyroïdie infraclinique (avec 1392 événements coronariens et 1993 décès). En utilisant un modèle statistique de type random-effect model, le risque relatif [RR] lié à l'hypothyroïdie infraclinique pour la maladie coronarienne est de 1.20 (intervalle de confiance [IC] de 95%, 0.97 à 1.49). Le risque diminue lorsque l'on regroupe uniquement les études de meilleure qualité (RR compris entre 1.02 et 1.08). Il est plus élevé parmi les participants de moins de 65 ans (RR, 1.51 [IC, 1.09 à 2.09] et 1.05 [IC, 0.90 à 1.22] pour les études dont l'âge moyen des participants est >_ 65 ans). Le RR de la mortalité cardiovasculaire est de 1.18 (IC, 0.98 à 1.42) et de 1.12 (IC, 0.99 à 1.26) pour la mortalité totale. En cas d'hyperthyroïdie infraclinique, les RR de la maladie coronarienne sont de 1.21 (IC, 0.88 à 1.68), de 1.19 (IC, 0.81 à 1.76) pour la mortalité cardiovasculaire, et de 1.12 (IC, 0.89 à 1.42) pour la mortalité totale. Conclusions et perspectives : nos résultats montrent que les dysfonctions thyroïdiennes infracliniques (hypothyroïdie et hyperthyroïdie infracliniques) représentent un facteur de risque modifiable, bien que modéré, de la maladie coronarienne et de la mortalité. L'efficacité du traitement de ces dysfonctions thyroïdiennes infracliniques doit encore être prouvée du point de vue cardiovasculaire et de la mortalité. Il est nécessaire d'effectuer des études contrôlées contre placebo avec le risque cardiovasculaire et la mortalité comme critères d'efficacité, avant de pouvoir proposer des recommandations sur le dépistage des ces dysfonctions thyroïdiennes dans la population adulte.

A comparison of Bayesian and frequentist approaches to incorporating external information for the prediction of prostate cancer risk.

We present the most comprehensive comparison to date of the predictive benefit of genetics in addition to currently used clinical variables, using genotype data for 33 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in 1,547 Caucasian men from the placebo arm of the REduction by DUtasteride of prostate Cancer Events (REDUCE®) trial. Moreover, we conducted a detailed comparison of three techniques for incorporating genetics into clinical risk prediction. The first method was a standard logistic regression model, which included separate terms for the clinical covariates and for each of the genetic markers. This approach ignores a substantial amount of external information concerning effect sizes for these Genome Wide Association Study (GWAS)-replicated SNPs. The second and third methods investigated two possible approaches to incorporating meta-analysed external SNP effect estimates - one via a weighted PCa 'risk' score based solely on the meta analysis estimates, and the other incorporating both the current and prior data via informative priors in a Bayesian logistic regression model. All methods demonstrated a slight improvement in predictive performance upon incorporation of genetics. The two methods that incorporated external information showed the greatest receiver-operating-characteristic AUCs increase from 0.61 to 0.64. The value of our methods comparison is likely to lie in observations of performance similarities, rather than difference, between three approaches of very different resource requirements. The two methods that included external information performed best, but only marginally despite substantial differences in complexity.

Defining risk thresholds for a 10-year probability of hip fracture model that combines clinical risk factors and quantitative ultrasound: results using the EPISEM cohort.

Using a large prospective cohort of over 12,000 women, we determined 2 thresholds (high risk and low risk of hip fracture) to use in a 10-yr hip fracture probability model that we had previously described, a model combining the heel stiffness index measured by quantitative ultrasound (QUS) and a set of easily determined clinical risk factors (CRFs). The model identified a higher percentage of women with fractures as high risk than a previously reported risk score that combined QUS and CRF. In addition, it categorized women in a way that was quite consistent with the categorization that occurred using dual X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) and the World Health Organization (WHO) classification system; the 2 methods identified similar percentages of women with and without fractures in each of their 3 categories, but the 2 identified only in part the same women. Nevertheless, combining our composite probability model with DXA in a case findings strategy will likely further improve the detection of women at high risk of fragility hip fracture. We conclude that the currently proposed model may be of some use as an alternative to the WHO classification criteria for osteoporosis, at least when access to DXA is limited.

The complex SNP and CNV genetic architecture of the increased risk of congenital heart defects in Down syndrome.

Congenital heart defect (CHD) occurs in 40% of Down syndrome (DS) cases. While carrying three copies of chromosome 21 increases the risk for CHD, trisomy 21 itself is not sufficient to cause CHD. Thus, additional genetic variation and/or environmental factors could contribute to the CHD risk. Here we report genomic variations that in concert with trisomy 21, determine the risk for CHD in DS. This case-control GWAS includes 187 DS with CHD (AVSD = 69, ASD = 53, VSD = 65) as cases, and 151 DS without CHD as controls. Chromosome 21-specific association studies revealed rs2832616 and rs1943950 as CHD risk alleles (adjusted genotypic P-values <0.05). These signals were confirmed in a replication cohort of 92 DS-CHD cases and 80 DS-without CHD (nominal P-value 0.0022). Furthermore, CNV analyses using a customized chromosome 21 aCGH of 135K probes in 55 DS-AVSD and 53 DS-without CHD revealed three CNV regions associated with AVSD risk (FDR ≤ 0.05). Two of these regions that are located within the previously identified CHD region on chromosome 21 were further confirmed in a replication study of 49 DS-AVSD and 45 DS- without CHD (FDR ≤ 0.05). One of these CNVs maps near the RIPK4 gene, and the second includes the ZBTB21 (previously ZNF295) gene, highlighting the potential role of these genes in the pathogenesis of CHD in DS. We propose that the genetic architecture of the CHD risk of DS is complex and includes trisomy 21, and SNP and CNV variations in chromosome 21. In addition, a yet-unidentified genetic variation in the rest of the genome may contribute to this complex genetic architecture.

Acute toxicity of curative radiotherapy for intermediate risk localized prostate cancer in the EORTC trial 22991

Introduction: EORTC trial 22991 randomly assessed the addition of concomitant and adjuvant short-term hormonal therapy to curative conformal/intensity-modulated radiotherapy (RT) for intermediate risk localized prostate cancer. We report the acute toxicity (assessed weekly during RT) for the organs at risk (genito-urinary (GU) and gastro-intestinal (GI)) in relation to radiation parameters. Material and Methods: Eligibility criteria were age _80 years, PSA _ 50 ng/ml, N0M0 and either tumour stage cT2a (1997 UICC TNM) or cT1b-c combined with PSA_10 ng/ml and/or Gleason score _7. We report toxicity for all eligible patients who received the planned RT with documented acute toxicity (CTCAEv.2) and RT-quality assurance parameters. The RT dose (70 Gy, 74 Gy or 78 Gy) and technique (3DCRT vs IRMT) were per institution choice, the randomization was stratified for institution. Statistical significance was set at 0.05. (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT00021450) Results: Of 819 randomized patients, 28 were excluded from the analysis (3 with <60 Gy RT, 25 with missing information). Of the 791 analysed patients, 652 (82.4%) were treated with 3D-CRT, 139 with IMRT. In the 3DCRT group, 195 patients (29.9%) were treated with a total prescribed dose of 70 Gy; 376 (57.7%) with 74 Gy and 81 (12.4%) with 78 Gy. In the IMRT group, 28 (20.1%) were treated to a total dose of 74 Gy and 111 (79.9%) with 78 Gy. Overall, only 7 of 791 patients (0.9%) had grade 3 GI toxicity during RT: diarrhea (N = 6), rectal bleeding (N = 1) and proctitis (N = 1). Fifty patients (6.3%) had grade 3 GU toxicity: urinary frequency (N = 38, 4.6%), dysuria (N = 14, 1.7%), urinary retention (N = 11, 1.3%), urinary incontinence (N = 2) and hematuria (N = 1). No grade 4 toxicity was reported. Hormonal treatment did not influence the risk of side effects (p>0.05). The risk of grade _2 GI toxicity significantly correlated to D50%-rectum (p = 0.004) with a cut-of value of 44 Gy. The risk of grade _2 GU toxicity was moderately affected by Dmax-bladder (p = 0.051). Overall, only 14 patients (1.8%) had residual grade 3 toxicities one month after RT. Conclusion: 3D-CRT and IMRT up to 78 Gy is well tolerated. Dmaxbladder and D50%-rectum were related to the risk of grade_2 GU and GI toxicity, respectively. IMRT lowered D50% rectum and Dmax-bladder. An irradiated volume >400 cc for 3D-RT and a dose of 78 Gy, even for IMRT, negatively affected those parameters and increased the risk for toxicity.

Prediction of hip fracture risk by quantitative ultrasound in more than 7000 Swiss women > or =70 years of age: comparison of three technologically different bone ultrasound devices in the SEMOF study.

To compare the prediction of hip fracture risk of several bone ultrasounds (QUS), 7062 Swiss women > or =70 years of age were measured with three QUSs (two of the heel, one of the phalanges). Heel QUSs were both predictive of hip fracture risk, whereas the phalanges QUS was not. INTRODUCTION: As the number of hip fracture is expected to increase during these next decades, it is important to develop strategies to detect subjects at risk. Quantitative bone ultrasound (QUS), an ionizing radiation-free method, which is transportable, could be interesting for this purpose. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The Swiss Evaluation of the Methods of Measurement of Osteoporotic Fracture Risk (SEMOF) study is a multicenter cohort study, which compared three QUSs for the assessment of hip fracture risk in a sample of 7609 elderly ambulatory women > or =70 years of age. Two QUSs measured the heel (Achilles+; GE-Lunar and Sahara; Hologic), and one measured the heel (DBM Sonic 1200; IGEA). The Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate the hazard of the first hip fracture, adjusted for age, BMI, and center, and the area under the ROC curves were calculated to compare the devices and their parameters. RESULTS: From the 7609 women who were included in the study, 7062 women 75.2 +/- 3.1 (SD) years of age were prospectively followed for 2.9 +/- 0.8 years. Eighty women reported a hip fracture. A decrease by 1 SD of the QUS variables corresponded to an increase of the hip fracture risk from 2.3 (95% CI, 1.7, 3.1) to 2.6 (95% CI, 1.9, 3.4) for the three variables of Achilles+ and from 2.2 (95% CI, 1.7, 3.0) to 2.4 (95% CI, 1.8, 3.2) for the three variables of Sahara. Risk gradients did not differ significantly among the variables of the two heel QUS devices. On the other hand, the phalanges QUS (DBM Sonic 1200) was not predictive of hip fracture risk, with an adjusted hazard risk of 1.2 (95% CI, 0.9, 1.5), even after reanalysis of the digitalized data and using different cut-off levels (1700 or 1570 m/s). CONCLUSIONS: In this elderly women population, heel QUS devices were both predictive of hip fracture risk, whereas the phalanges QUS device was not.

Diagnostic and prognostic value of cerebral 31P magnetic resonance spectroscopy in neonates with perinatal asphyxia.

The impact of depressed neonatal cerebral oxidative phosphorylation for diagnosing the severity of perinatal asphyxia was estimated by correlating the concentrations of phosphocreatine (PCr) and ATP as determined by magnetic resonance spectroscopy with the degree of hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy (HIE) in 23 asphyxiated term neonates. Ten healthy age-matched neonates served as controls. In patients, the mean concentrations +/- SD of PCr and ATP were 0.99 +/- 0.46 mmol/L (1.6 +/- 0.2 mmol/L) and 0.99 +/- 0.35 mmol/L (1.7 +/- 0.2 mmol/L), respectively (normal values in parentheses). [PCr] and [ATP] correlated significantly with the severity of HIE (r = 0.85 and 0.9, respectively, p < 0.001), indicating that the neonatal encephalopathy is the clinical manifestation of a marred brain energy metabolism. Neurodevelopmental outcome was evaluated in 21 children at 3, 9, and 18 mo. Seven infants had multiple impairments, five were moderately handicapped, five had only mild symptoms, and four were normal. There was a significant correlation between the cerebral concentrations of PCr or ATP at birth and outcome (r = 0.8, p < 0.001) and between the degree of neonatal neurologic depression and outcome (r = 0.7). More important, the outcome of neonates with moderate HIE could better be predicted with information from quantitative 31P magnetic resonance spectroscopy than from neurologic examinations. In general, the accuracy of outcome predictability could significantly be increased by adding results from 31P magnetic resonance spectroscopy to the neonatal neurologic score, but not vice versa. No correlation with outcome was found for other perinatal risk factors, including Apgar score.

Pulmonary embolism severity index and troponin testing for the selection of low-risk patients with acute symptomatic pulmonary embolism.

Summary Background: The combination of the Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (PESI) and troponin testing could help physicians identify appropriate patients with acute pulmonary embolism (PE) for early hospital discharge. Methods: This prospective cohort study included a total of 567 patients from a single center registry with objectively confirmed acute symptomatic PE. On the basis of the PESI, each patient was classified into 1 of 5 classes (I to V). At the time of hospital admission, patients had troponin I (cTnI) levels measured. The endpoint of the study was all-cause mortality within 30 days after diagnosis. We calculated the mortality rates in 4 patient groups: group 1: PESI class I-II plus cTnI <0.1 ng mL(-1); group 2: PESI classes III-V plus cTnI <0.1 ng mL(-1); group 3: PESI classes I-II plus cTnI >/= 0.1 ng mL(-1); and group 4: PESI classes III-V plus cTnI >/= 0.1 ng mL(-1). Results: The study cohort had a 30-day mortality of 10% (95% confidence interval [CI], 7.6 to 12.5%). Mortality rates in the 4 groups were 1.3%, 14.2%, 0% and 15.4%, respectively. Compared to non-elevated cTnl, the low-risk PESI had a higher negative predictive value (NPV) (98.9% vs 90.8%) and negative likelihood ratio (NLR) (0.1 vs 0.9) for predicting mortality. The addition of non-elevated cTnI to low-risk PESI did not improve the NPV or the NLR compared to either test alone. Conclusions: Compared to cTnl testing, PESI classification more accurately identified patients with PE who are at low risk of all-cause death within 30-days of presentation.

Assessment of the 10-year probability of osteoporotic hip fracture combining clinical risk factors and heel bone ultrasound: the EPISEM prospective cohort of 12,958 elderly women.

This study aimed to develop a hip screening tool that combines relevant clinical risk factors (CRFs) and quantitative ultrasound (QUS) at the heel to determine the 10-yr probability of hip fractures in elderly women. The EPISEM database, comprised of approximately 13,000 women 70 yr of age, was derived from two population-based white European cohorts in France and Switzerland. All women had baseline data on CRFs and a baseline measurement of the stiffness index (SI) derived from QUS at the heel. Women were followed prospectively to identify incident fractures. Multivariate analysis was performed to determine the CRFs that contributed significantly to hip fracture risk, and these were used to generate a CRF score. Gradients of risk (GR; RR/SD change) and areas under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) were calculated for the CRF score, SI, and a score combining both. The 10-yr probability of hip fracture was computed for the combined model. Three hundred seven hip fractures were observed over a mean follow-up of 3.2 yr. In addition to SI, significant CRFs for hip fracture were body mass index (BMI), history of fracture, an impaired chair test, history of a recent fall, current cigarette smoking, and diabetes mellitus. The average GR for hip fracture was 2.10 per SD with the combined SI + CRF score compared with a GR of 1.77 with SI alone and of 1.52 with the CRF score alone. Thus, the use of CRFs enhanced the predictive value of SI alone. For example, in a woman 80 yr of age, the presence of two to four CRFs increased the probability of hip fracture from 16.9% to 26.6% and from 52.6% to 70.5% for SI Z-scores of +2 and -3, respectively. The combined use of CRFs and QUS SI is a promising tool to assess hip fracture probability in elderly women, especially when access to DXA is limited.

PAX3/FOXO1 fusion gene status is the key prognostic molecular marker in rhabdomyosarcoma and significantly improves current risk stratification.

PURPOSE: To improve the risk stratification of patients with rhabdomyosarcoma (RMS) through the use of clinical and molecular biologic data. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Two independent data sets of gene-expression profiling for 124 and 101 patients with RMS were used to derive prognostic gene signatures by using a meta-analysis. These and a previously published metagene signature were evaluated by using cross validation analyses. A combined clinical and molecular risk-stratification scheme that incorporated the PAX3/FOXO1 fusion gene status was derived from 287 patients with RMS and evaluated. RESULTS: We showed that our prognostic gene-expression signature and the one previously published performed well with reproducible and significant effects. However, their effect was reduced when cross validated or tested in independent data and did not add new prognostic information over the fusion gene status, which is simpler to assay. Among nonmetastatic patients, patients who were PAX3/FOXO1 positive had a significantly poorer outcome compared with both alveolar-negative and PAX7/FOXO1-positive patients. Furthermore, a new clinicomolecular risk score that incorporated fusion gene status (negative and PAX3/FOXO1 and PAX7/FOXO1 positive), Intergroup Rhabdomyosarcoma Study TNM stage, and age showed a significant increase in performance over the current risk-stratification scheme. CONCLUSION: Gene signatures can improve current stratification of patients with RMS but will require complex assays to be developed and extensive validation before clinical application. A significant majority of their prognostic value was encapsulated by the fusion gene status. A continuous risk score derived from the combination of clinical parameters with the presence or absence of PAX3/FOXO1 represents a robust approach to improving current risk-adapted therapy for RMS.

Diabetes risk scores and death: predictability and practicability in two different populations.

The aim was to examine the capacity of commonly used type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) risk scores to predict overall mortality. The US-based NHANES III (n = 3138; 982 deaths) and the Swiss-based CoLaus study (n = 3946; 191 deaths) were used. The predictive value of eight T2DM risk scores regarding overall mortality was tested. The Griffin score, based on few self-reported parameters, presented the best (NHANES III) and second best (CoLaus) predictive capacity. Generally, the predictive capacity of scores based on clinical (anthropometrics, lifestyle, history) and biological (blood parameters) data was not better than of scores based solely on clinical self-reported data. T2DM scores can be validly used to predict mortality risk in general populations without diabetes. Comparison with other scores could further show whether such scores also suit as a screening tool for quick overall health risk assessment.

Increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) with age in HIV-positive men : a comparison of the D:A:D CVD risk equation and general population CVD risk equations

OBJECTIVES: The aim of the study was to statistically model the relative increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) per year older in Data collection on Adverse events of anti-HIV Drugs (D:A:D) and to compare this with the relative increased risk of CVD per year older in general population risk equations. METHODS: We analysed three endpoints: myocardial infarction (MI), coronary heart disease (CHD: MI or invasive coronary procedure) and CVD (CHD or stroke). We fitted a number of parametric age effects, adjusting for known risk factors and antiretroviral therapy (ART) use. The best-fitting age effect was determined using the Akaike information criterion. We compared the ageing effect from D:A:D with that from the general population risk equations: the Framingham Heart Study, CUORE and ASSIGN risk scores. RESULTS: A total of 24 323 men were included in analyses. Crude MI, CHD and CVD event rates per 1000 person-years increased from 2.29, 3.11 and 3.65 in those aged 40-45 years to 6.53, 11.91 and 15.89 in those aged 60-65 years, respectively. The best-fitting models included inverse age for MI and age + age(2) for CHD and CVD. In D:A:D there was a slowly accelerating increased risk of CHD and CVD per year older, which appeared to be only modest yet was consistently raised compared with the risk in the general population. The relative risk of MI with age was not different between D:A:D and the general population. CONCLUSIONS: We found only limited evidence of accelerating increased risk of CVD with age in D:A:D compared with the general population. The absolute risk of CVD associated with HIV infection remains uncertain.

External assessment of the Early Mortality Risk Score in patients with adenocarcinoma undergoing pancreaticoduodenectomy.

BACKGROUND: Pancreaticoduodenectomies (PD) still have a substantial mortality rate. Recently, different scores have been published to predict the mortality risk pre-operatively after PD. This retrospective study was designed to perform an external assessment of an Early Mortality Risk Score (EMRS). METHODS: From 2000 to 2012, all PD cases performed at our institution were documented. Only patients treated for pancreatic head adenocarcinomas were included. Survival time and EMRS (based on age, tumour size, tumour differentiation and comorbidities) were calculated for every patient. Relative risks (RR) of early death 9 and 12 months after PD were then calculated. RESULTS: Of 270 PD for various aetiologies, 120 PD for adenocarcinomas were included. The median follow-up was 37 months, and the overall median survival was 19 months. EMRS of 4 showed a mortality RR of 5.1 at 9 months (P = 0.048) and of 4.5 at 12 months (P = 0.020). CONCLUSIONS: EMRS of 4 is a predictor of tumour-related mortality at 9 and 12 months after PD for adenocarcinoma. The EMRS was externally assessed in our patient cohort and can be implemented in clinical practice. Clinical implications of this score still need to be studied.

Genetic Variation in the TP53 Pathway and Bladder Cancer Risk. A Comprehensive Analysis

Introduction: Germline variants in TP63 have been consistently associated with several tumors, including bladder cancer, indicating the importance of TP53 pathway in cancer genetic susceptibility. However, variants in other related genes, including TP53 rs1042522 (Arg72Pro), still present controversial results. We carried out an in depth assessment of associations between common germline variants in the TP53 pathway and bladder cancer risk. Material and Methods: We investigated 184 tagSNPs from 18 genes in 1,058 cases and 1,138 controls from the Spanish Bladder Cancer/EPICURO Study. Cases were newly-diagnosed bladder cancer patients during 1998–2001. Hospital controls were age-gender, and area matched to cases. SNPs were genotyped in blood DNA using Illumina Golden Gate and TaqMan assays. Cases were subphenotyped according to stage/grade and tumor p53 expression. We applied classical tests to assess individual SNP associations and the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO)-penalized logistic regression analysis to assess multiple SNPs simultaneously. Results: Based on classical analyses, SNPs in BAK1 (1), IGF1R (5), P53AIP1 (1), PMAIP1 (2), SERINPB5 (3), TP63 (3), and TP73 (1) showed significant associations at p-value#0.05. However, no evidence of association, either with overall risk or with specific disease subtypes, was observed after correction for multiple testing (p-value$0.8). LASSO selected the SNP rs6567355 in SERPINB5 with 83% of reproducibility. This SNP provided an OR = 1.21, 95%CI 1.05–1.38, p-value = 0.006, and a corrected p-value = 0.5 when controlling for over-estimation. Discussion: We found no strong evidence that common variants in the TP53 pathway are associated with bladder cancer susceptibility. Our study suggests that it is unlikely that TP53 Arg72Pro is implicated in the UCB in white Europeans. SERPINB5 and TP63 variation deserve further exploration in extended studies.