Density forecasts of crude-oil prices using option-implied and ARCH-type models

The predictive accuracy of competing crude-oil price forecast densities is investigated for the 1994–2006 period. Moving beyond standard ARCH type models that rely exclusively on past returns, we examine the benefits of utilizing the forward-looking information that is embedded in the prices of derivative contracts. Risk-neutral densities, obtained from panels of crude-oil option prices, are adjusted to reflect real-world risks using either a parametric or a non-parametric calibration approach. The relative performance of the models is evaluated for the entire support of the density, as well as for regions and intervals that are of special interest for the economic agent. We find that non-parametric adjustments of risk-neutral density forecasts perform significantly better than their parametric counterparts. Goodness-of-fit tests and out-of-sample likelihood comparisons favor forecast densities obtained by option prices and non-parametric calibration methods over those constructed using historical returns and simulated ARCH processes. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 31:727–754, 2011

The Current State of Argentina's Oil Industry

An oil wealthy country, Argentina has repeatedly tried and failed to capitalize on its potential. The unfortunate energy policies of subsequent Argentinean government and a lack of investment capital have been two of the main reasons that have significantly limited the production of export oil in the recent past. Yet, with recent discoveries and changes to the country’s hydrocarbon laws, there may be a new dawn for Argentina’s oil industry. Since 1999 when Argentina’s oil production peaked at approximately 800,000 barrels per day, there has been a 24 percent decrease in its oil output. The country’s oil reserves have also been in steady decline. Yet, the recently enacted reforms by Argentina’s government to incentivize foreign investment in the oil industry seem to be working, allowing investors to negotiate the terms of exploration directly with local governments. As a result, foreign investment is increasing, as well as new willingness to finance exploration of untapped reserves. Also, the discovery of shale oil in Argentina may provide the potential to become a key exporter in the region. Nonetheless, there are challenges that need to be overcome and it may be years before the various oil projects underway become profitable. The success of current oil projects, coupled with the potential of shale oil, new discoveries and the sustainability of the current energy policy reforms will likely determine if Argentina is finally able to fulfill its potential and exert itself as an oil exporter country in Latin America.

Estudo da incorporação de resíduos de perfuração para aplicação em cimentação de poços de petróleo

During the drilling of oil and natural gas are generated solid waste, liquid and gaseous. These solid fragments, which are known as cuttings, are carried to the surface through the drilling fluid. Furthermore, this fluid serves to cool the bit, keeping the internal pressure of the well, and others. This solid residue is very polluting, because it has incorporated beyond the drilling fluid, which has several chemical additives harmful to the environment, some heavy metals that are harmful to the environment, such as lead. To minimize the residue generated, are currently being studied numerous techniques to mitigate the problems that such waste can cause to the environment, like addition of cuttings in the composition of soil cement brick masonry construction, addition of cuttings on the clay matrix for the manufacture of solid masonry bricks and ceramic blocks and coprocessing of the cuttings in cement. So, the main objective of this work is the incorporation of cuttings drilling of oil wells, the cement slurry used in the cementing operation of the well. This cuttings used in this study, arising from the formation Pendências, was milled and separated in a sieve of 100 mesh. After grinding had a mean particle sike in order of 86 mm and crystal structure containing phases of quartz and calcite type, characteristic of the Portland cement. Were formulated and prepared slurries of cement with density 13 lb / gal, containing different concentrations of gravel, and realized characterization tests API SPEC 10A and RP 10B. Free water tests showed values lower than 5.9% and the rheological model that best described the behavior of the mixtures was the power. The results of compressive strength (10.3 MPa) and stability (Dr <0.5 lb / gal) had values within the set of operational procedures. Thus, the gravel from the drilling operation, may be used as binders in addition to Portland cement oil wells, in order to reuse this waste and reduce the cost of the cement paste.

Uso de água produzida na formulação de fluidos de perfuração

Drilling fluids have fundamental importance in the petroleum activities, since they are responsible for remove the cuttings, maintain pressure and well stability, preventing collapse and inflow of fluid into the rock formation and maintain lubrication and cooling the drill. There are basically three types of drilling fluids: water-based, non-aqueous and aerated based. The water-based drilling fluid is widely used because it is less aggressive to the environment and provide excellent stability and inhibition (when the water based drilling fluid is a inhibition fluid), among other qualities. Produced water is generated simultaneously with oil during production and has high concentrations of metals and contaminants, so it’s necessary to treat for disposal this water. The produced water from the fields of Urucu-AM and Riacho da forquilha-RN have high concentrations of contaminants, metals and salts such as calcium and magnesium, complicating their treatment and disposal. Thus, the objective was to analyze the use of synthetic produced water with similar characteristics of produced water from Urucu-AM and Riacho da Forquilha-RN for formulate a water-based drilling mud, noting the influence of varying the concentration of calcium and magnesium into filtered and rheology tests. We conducted a simple 32 factorial experimental design for statistical modeling of data. The results showed that the varying concentrations of calcium and magnesium did not influence the rheology of the fluid, where in the plastic viscosity, apparent viscosity and the initial and final gels does not varied significantly. For the filtrate tests, calcium concentration in a linear fashion influenced chloride concentration, where when we have a higher concentration of calcium we have a higher the concentration of chloride in the filtrate. For the Urucu’s produced water based fluids, volume of filtrate was observed that the calcium concentration influences quadratically, this means that high calcium concentrations interfere with the power of the inhibitors used in the formulation of the filtered fluid. For Riacho’s produced water based fluid, Calcium’s influences is linear for volume of filtrate. The magnesium concentration was significant only for chloride concentration in a quadratic way just for Urucu’s produced water based fluids. The mud with maximum concentration of magnesium (9,411g/L), but minimal concentration of calcium (0,733g/L) showed good results. Therefore, a maximum water produced by magnesium concentration of 9,411g/L and the maximum calcium concentration of 0,733g/L can be used for formulating water-based drilling fluids, providing appropriate properties for this kind of fluid.

Avaliação da variação sedimentológica em uma área da plataforma continental sob a atuação da indústria petrolífera

Petroleum exploration activity occurs on the offshore Potiguar Basin, from very shallow (2-3 m) until about 50 m water depth, extending from Alto de Touros (RN) to Alto de Fortaleza (CE). Take in account the biological importance and the heterogeneity of sediments on this area, it is necessary the understanding of the sedimentological dynamics, and mainly the changes generated by petroleum exploration to prevent possible damages to environment. Despite the intense activity of oil exploration in this area, research projects like these are still rare. In view to minimize this gap, this study was developed to evaluate sedimentological, mineralogical and geochemical changes in the vicinity of a exploration well, here designated as well A, located on the Middle continental shelf, near the transition to Outer shelf. The well selected for this study was the first one drilled with Riserless Mud Recovery technology (RMR) in Brazil. The main difference from this to the conventional method is the possibility of drilling phase I of the well with return of drilling material to the rig tank, minimizing fluid and gravel discharging around the vicinity, during this phase. Monitoring consisted of three surveys, first of them done before start drilling, the second one done 19 days after the end of drilling and the third one done one year after then. Comparison of the studied variables (calcium carbonate and organic matter content, sediment size, mineralogy and geochemistry) was done with their average, median and coefficient of variation values to understand the changes after drilling activity. Because operating company technical reasons, the well location was changed after the first survey (C1), resulting in a shift of the sampled area on the two last surveys (C2 e C3). Nevertheless, the acquired data presented a good correlation, with no loss to the mean goal of the study. The sedimentological, mineralogical and geochemical analyzes were done at Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte (UFRN). The results indicated a predominantly sandy environment along the three surveys. It was noticed that the first survey (C1), presented different values for all the studied variables than to the second (C2) and third (C3) surveys, which had similar values. Siliciclastic sediments are prevalent at all surveys, and quartz is the main component (more than 80%). Heavy minerals (garnet, turmaline, zircon and lmenite), rock fragments and mud aggregates also was described. Bioclastic sediments are dominated by coralline algae (more than 45%) and mollusks (more than 30%), followed by benthic foraminifera, bryozoans and worm tubes. More rarely was observed ostracoda and spike of calcareous sponge. Because the low changes of the sediments at the studied area and by the using of RMR method in the drilling, it was possible to conclude that drilling activity did not promote significant alteration on the local sediment cover. Changes in the studied variables before and after drilling activity could be influenced by the changing in the sampling area after survey 1 (C1).

Tensoativo derivado do ácido cítrico: síntese e aplicação em fluidos de perfuração de emulsão inversa

This work describes the synthesis and study of the application of a new surfactant (Triester Lipophilic – TEL) obtained by citric acid with octanol. It is reaction was followed by thin layer chromatography (TLC) and after purification the product was characterized by proton and 13 – carbon nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy ( H and 13C NMR), thermogravimetric analysis (TGA) and surface tension analysis of oil-in-water emulsions. The TEL performance as surfactant in ester, n-paraffin and biodiesel based drilling fluids on the 70/30 and 60/40 water- oil rations (WOR) was evaluated by comparative tests of two commercial products used in the fields. These drilling fluids were aged in roller oven at 200 0 F during 16 h. The rheological and electric stability measurements were carried out at 135 ºF, the phase separation was evaluated after seven days at rest and the filtrate volume of drilling fluids was determined at high temperature and high pressure. The rheological behavior of the drilling fluids was evaluated by the flow curves. The results showed that the drilling fluids studied here presented Binghamian behavior as well as the used in the oil fields. The laboratory tests showed that the TEL reduced the filtrate volume and promoted the enhance of the thermal and mechanical stabilities.

Estudo de simulação de reservatórios para o desenvolvimento de um campo do nordeste brasileiro

In the last 16 years emerged in Brazil a segment of independent producers with focus on onshore basins and shallow waters. Among the challenges of these companies is the development of fields with projects with a low net present value (NPV). The objective of this work was to study the technical-economical best option to develop an oil field in the Brazilian Northeast using reservoir simulation. Real geology, reservoir and production data was used to build the geological and simulation model. Due to not having PVT analysis, distillation method test data known as the true boiling points (TBP) were used to create a fluids model generating the PVT data. After execution of the history match, four development scenarios were simulated: the extrapolation of production without new investments, the conversion of a producing well for immiscible gas injection, the drilling of a vertical well and the drilling of a horizontal well. As a result, from the financial point of view, the gas injection is the alternative with lower added value, but it may be viable if there are environmental or regulatory restrictions to flaring or venting the produced gas into the atmosphere from this field or neighboring accumulations. The recovery factor achieved with the drilling of vertical and horizontal wells is similar, but the horizontal well is a project of production acceleration; therefore, the present incremental cumulative production with a minimum rate of company's attractiveness is higher. Depending on the crude oil Brent price and the drilling cost, this option can be technically and financially viable.

Análise comparativa de diferentes configurações de poços no processo de combustão in-situ

With an increasing number of mature fields, heavy oil recovery has performed one of the great challenges of the oil industry. The Brazilian Northeast, for example, has numerous heavy oil reservoirs are explored with the use of thermal methods. Among the types of methods used for heavy oil, there is the method of in-situ combustion, a technique in which heat is produced within the container, unlike the injection of heated fluid when the heat is generated at the surface and transported to the reservoir. In this type of process, it is common to use vertical wells as injectors and producers. However, methods which use horizontal wells like oil producers are increasingly studied because of greater contact area between the formation and combustion front. Thus, the main objective of this work was to study the different configurations of wells (CIS THAITM and CAGD) in the process of in-situ combustion in oil recovery using a semi-synthetic tank with Brazilian Northeast features. The method "toe-to-heel air injection" (THAITM) is a process of enhanced oil recovery, which is the integration of in-situ combustion with technological advances in drilling horizontal wells. This method uses horizontal wells such as oil producers, keeping vertical injection wells for injecting air. The oil drain process by differential gravitational assisted with combustion (CAGD) is an integrated, in this configuration the horizontal injector well is drilled at the top formation with a horizontal production well in the lower section. The simulations were performed in a commercial program of thermal processes, called "STARS" (Steam, Thermal, and Advanced Processes Reservoir Simulator), the company CMG (Computer Modelling Group). An analysis of the air flow injection was performed and it was found that each method had a maximum injection to the base model, a show that through this air injection limit was reduced cumulative production of oil. Analyses of operating parameters were used: injection flow, configuration and completion of wells. In the sensitivity analysis we found that the air injection flow showed greater influence on THAI method, since the CIS method the completion of the wells was the most influential parameter and CAGD configuration wells showed the greatest influence in the recovered fraction. The economic results have shown that the best case obtained in CAGD method because, despite having higher initial cost showed the best financial return compared to the best cases the CIS and THAI.

Análise comparativa de diferentes configurações de poços no processo de combustão in-situ

With an increasing number of mature fields, heavy oil recovery has performed one of the great challenges of the oil industry. The Brazilian Northeast, for example, has numerous heavy oil reservoirs are explored with the use of thermal methods. Among the types of methods used for heavy oil, there is the method of in-situ combustion, a technique in which heat is produced within the container, unlike the injection of heated fluid when the heat is generated at the surface and transported to the reservoir. In this type of process, it is common to use vertical wells as injectors and producers. However, methods which use horizontal wells like oil producers are increasingly studied because of greater contact area between the formation and combustion front. Thus, the main objective of this work was to study the different configurations of wells (CIS THAITM and CAGD) in the process of in-situ combustion in oil recovery using a semi-synthetic tank with Brazilian Northeast features. The method "toe-to-heel air injection" (THAITM) is a process of enhanced oil recovery, which is the integration of in-situ combustion with technological advances in drilling horizontal wells. This method uses horizontal wells such as oil producers, keeping vertical injection wells for injecting air. The oil drain process by differential gravitational assisted with combustion (CAGD) is an integrated, in this configuration the horizontal injector well is drilled at the top formation with a horizontal production well in the lower section. The simulations were performed in a commercial program of thermal processes, called "STARS" (Steam, Thermal, and Advanced Processes Reservoir Simulator), the company CMG (Computer Modelling Group). An analysis of the air flow injection was performed and it was found that each method had a maximum injection to the base model, a show that through this air injection limit was reduced cumulative production of oil. Analyses of operating parameters were used: injection flow, configuration and completion of wells. In the sensitivity analysis we found that the air injection flow showed greater influence on THAI method, since the CIS method the completion of the wells was the most influential parameter and CAGD configuration wells showed the greatest influence in the recovered fraction. The economic results have shown that the best case obtained in CAGD method because, despite having higher initial cost showed the best financial return compared to the best cases the CIS and THAI.

A study of methods used to analyze total oil and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in produced water: steps towards the validation of molecularly imprinted polymers for use in marine environmetns

Produced water is a by-product of offshore oil and gas production, and is released in large volumes when platforms are actively processing crude oil. Some pollutants are not typically removed by conventional oil/water separation methods and are discharged with produced water. Oil and grease can be found dispersed in produced water in the form of tiny droplets, and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are commonly found dissolved in produced water. Both can have acute and chronic toxic effects in marine environments even at low exposure levels. The analysis of the dissolved and dispersed phases are a priority, but effort is required to meet the necessary detection limits. There are several methods for the analysis of produced water for dispersed oil and dissolved PAHs, all of which have advantages and disadvantages. In this work, EPA Method 1664 and APHA Method 5520 C for the determination of oil and grease will be examined and compared. For the detection of PAHs, EPA Method 525 and PAH MIPs will be compared, and results evaluated. APHA Method 5520 C Partition-Infrared Method is a liquid-liquid extraction procedure with IR determination of oil and grease. For analysis on spiked samples of artificial seawater, extraction efficiency ranged from 85 – 97%. Linearity was achieved in the range of 5 – 500 mg/L. This is a single-wavelength method and is unsuitable for quantification of aromatics and other compounds that lack sp³-hybridized carbon atoms. EPA Method 1664 is the liquid-liquid extraction of oil and grease from water samples followed by gravimetric determination. When distilled water spiked with reference oil was extracted by this procedure, extraction efficiency ranged from 28.4 – 86.2%, and %RSD ranged from 7.68 – 38.0%. EPA Method 525 uses solid phase extraction with analysis by GC-MS, and was performed on distilled water and water from St. John’s Harbour, all spiked with naphthalene, fluorene, phenanthrene, and pyrene. The limits of detection in harbour water were 0.144, 3.82, 0.119, and 0.153 g/L respectively. Linearity was obtained in the range of 0.5-10 g/L, and %RSD ranged from 0.36% (fluorene) to 46% (pyrene). Molecularly imprinted polymers (MIPs) are sorbent materials made selective by polymerizing functional monomers and crosslinkers in the presence of a template molecule, usually the analytes of interest or related compounds. They can adsorb and concentrate PAHs from aqueous environments and are combined with methods of analysis including GC-MS, LC-UV-Vis, and desorption electrospray ionization (DESI)- MS. This work examines MIP-based methods as well as those methods previously mentioned which are currently used by the oil and gas industry and government environmental agencies. MIPs are shown to give results consistent with other methods, and are a low-cost alternative improving ease, throughput, and sensitivity. PAH MIPs were used to determine naphthalene spiked into ASTM artificial seawater, as well as produced water from an offshore oil and gas operation. Linearity was achieved in the range studied (0.5 – 5 mg/L) for both matrices, with R² = 0.936 for seawater and R² = 0.819 for produced water. The %RSD for seawater ranged from 6.58 – 50.5% and for produced water, from 8.19 – 79.6%.

How to recognise a kick : A cognitive task analysis of drillers’ situation awareness during well operations

Acknowledgements This article is based on a doctoral research project of the first author which was sponsored by an international drilling rig operator. The views presented are those of the authors and should not be taken to represent the position or policy of the sponsor. The authors wish to thank the industrial supervisor and the drilling experts for their contribution and patience, as well as Aberdeen Drilling School for allowing the first author to attend one of their well control courses.

Environmental Impacts of the Deep-Water Oil and Gas Industry : A Review to Guide Management Strategies

The authors would like to thank the leadership of the Deep Ocean Stewardship Initiative (DOSI), including Lisa Levin, Maria Baker, and Kristina Gjerde, for their support in developing this review. This work evolved from a meeting of the DOSI Oil and Gas working group supported by the J.M. Kaplan Fund, and associated with the Deep-Sea Biology Symposium in Aveiro, Portugal in September 2015. The members of the Oil and Gas working group that contributed to our discussions at that meeting or through the listserve are acknowledged for their contributions to this work. We would also like to thank the three reviewers and the editor who provided valuable comments and insight into the work presented here. DJ and AD were supported by funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the MERCES (Marine Ecosystem Restoration in Changing European Seas) project, grant agreement No 689518. AB was supported by CNPq grants 301412/2013-8 and 200504/2015-0. LH acknowledges funding provided by a Natural Environment Research Council grant (NE/L008181/1). This output reflects only the authors' views and the funders cannot be held responsible for any use that may be made of the information contained therein.

Advanced Aerogel Composites for Oil Remediation and Recovery

Oil spills in marine environments often damage marine and coastal life if not remediated rapidly and efficiently. In spite of the strict enforcement of environmental legislations (i.e., Oil Pollution Act 1990) following the Exxon Valdez oil spill (June 1989; the second biggest oil spill in U.S. history), the Macondo well blowout disaster (April 2010) released 18 times more oil. Strikingly, the response methods used to contain and capture spilled oil after both accidents were nearly identical, note that more than two decades separate Exxon Valdez (1989) and Macondo well (2010) accidents.

The goal of this dissertation was to investigate new advanced materials (mechanically strong aerogel composite blankets-Cabot® Thermal Wrap™ (TW) and Aspen Aerogels® Spaceloft® (SL)), and their applications for oil capture and recovery to overcome the current material limitations in oil spill response methods. First, uptake of different solvents and oils were studied to answer the following question: do these blanket aerogel composites have competitive oil uptake compared to state-of-the-art oil sorbents (i.e., polyurethane foam-PUF)? In addition to their competitive mechanical strength (766, 380, 92 kPa for Spaceloft, Thermal Wrap, and PUF, respectively), our results showed that aerogel composites have three critical advantages over PUF: rapid (3-5 min.) and high (more than two times of PUF’s uptake) oil uptake, reusability (over 10 cycles), and oil recoverability (up to 60%) via mechanical extraction. Chemical-specific sorption experiments showed that the dominant uptake mechanism of aerogels is adsorption to the internal surface, with some contribution of absorption into the pore space.

Second, we investigated the potential environmental impacts (energy and chemical burdens) associated with manufacturing, use, and disposal of SL aerogel and PUF to remove the oil (i.e., 1 m3 oil) from a location (i.e., Macondo well). Different use (single and multiple use) and end of life (landfill, incinerator, and waste-to-energy) scenarios were assessed, and our results demonstrated that multiple use, and waste-to-energy choices minimize the energy and material use of SL aerogel. Nevertheless, using SL once and disposing via landfill still offers environmental and cost savings benefits relative to PUF, and so these benefits are preserved irrespective of the oil-spill-response operator choices.

To inform future aerogel manufacture, we investigated the different laboratory-scale aerogel fabrication technologies (rapid supercritical extraction (RSCE), CO2 supercritical extraction (CSCE), alcohol supercritical extraction (ASCE)). Our results from anticipatory LCA for laboratory-scaled aerogel fabrication demonstrated that RSCE method offers lower cumulative energy and ecotoxicity impacts compared to conventional aerogel fabrication methods (CSCE and ASCE).

The final objective of this study was to investigate different surface coating techniques to enhance oil recovery by modifying the existing aerogel surface chemistries to develop chemically responsive materials (switchable hydrophobicity in response to a CO2 stimulus). Our results showed that studied surface coating methods (drop casting, dip coating, and physical vapor deposition) were partially successful to modify surface with CO2 switchable chemical (tributylpentanamidine), likely because of the heterogeneous fiber structure of the aerogel blankets. A possible solution to these non-uniform coatings would be to include switchable chemical as a precursor during the gel preparation to chemically attach the switchable chemical to the pores of the aerogel.

Taken as a whole, the implications of this work are that mechanical deployment and recovery of aerogel composite blankets is a viable oil spill response strategy that can be deployed today. This will ultimately enable better oil uptake without the uptake of water, potential reuse of the collected oil, reduced material and energy burdens compared to competitive sorbents (e.g., PUF), and reduced occupational exposure to oiled sorbents. In addition, sorbent blankets and booms could be deployed in coastal and open-ocean settings, respectively, which was previously impossible.