990 resultados para Numerical Weather Prediction


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Negative-ion mode electrospray ionization, ESI(-), with Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (FT-ICR MS) was coupled to a Partial Least Squares (PLS) regression and variable selection methods to estimate the total acid number (TAN) of Brazilian crude oil samples. Generally, ESI(-)-FT-ICR mass spectra present a power of resolution of ca. 500,000 and a mass accuracy less than 1 ppm, producing a data matrix containing over 5700 variables per sample. These variables correspond to heteroatom-containing species detected as deprotonated molecules, [M - H](-) ions, which are identified primarily as naphthenic acids, phenols and carbazole analog species. The TAN values for all samples ranged from 0.06 to 3.61 mg of KOH g(-1). To facilitate the spectral interpretation, three methods of variable selection were studied: variable importance in the projection (VIP), interval partial least squares (iPLS) and elimination of uninformative variables (UVE). The UVE method seems to be more appropriate for selecting important variables, reducing the dimension of the variables to 183 and producing a root mean square error of prediction of 0.32 mg of KOH g(-1). By reducing the size of the data, it was possible to relate the selected variables with their corresponding molecular formulas, thus identifying the main chemical species responsible for the TAN values.

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To evaluate the correlation between neck circumference and insulin resistance and components of metabolic syndrome in adolescents with different adiposity levels and pubertal stages, as well as to determine the usefulness of neck circumference to predict insulin resistance in adolescents. Cross-sectional study with 388 adolescents of both genders from ten to 19 years old. The adolescents underwent anthropometric and body composition assessment, including neck and waist circumferences, and biochemical evaluation. The pubertal stage was obtained by self-assessment, and the blood pressure, by auscultation. Insulin resistance was evaluated by the Homeostasis Model Assessment-Insulin Resistance. The correlation between two variables was evaluated by partial correlation coefficient adjusted for the percentage of body fat and pubertal stage. The performance of neck circumference to identify insulin resistance was tested by Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve. After the adjustment for percentage body fat and pubertal stage, neck circumference correlated with waist circumference, blood pressure, triglycerides and markers of insulin resistance in both genders. The results showed that the neck circumference is a useful tool for the detection of insulin resistance and changes in the indicators of metabolic syndrome in adolescents. The easiness of application and low cost of this measure may allow its use in Public Health services.

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Mixing layers are present in very different types of physical situations such as atmospheric flows, aerodynamics and combustion. It is, therefore, a well researched subject, but there are aspects that require further studies. Here the instability of two-and three-dimensional perturbations in the compressible mixing layer was investigated by numerical simulations. In the numerical code, the derivatives were discretized using high-order compact finite-difference schemes. A stretching in the normal direction was implemented with both the objective of reducing the sound waves generated by the shear region and improving the resolution near the center. The compact schemes were modified to work with non-uniform grids. Numerical tests started with an analysis of the growth rate in the linear regime to verify the code implementation. Tests were also performed in the non-linear regime and it was possible to reproduce the vortex roll-up and pairing, both in two-and three-dimensional situations. Amplification rate analysis was also performed for the secondary instability of this flow. It was found that, for essentially incompressible flow, maximum growth rates occurred for a spanwise wavelength of approximately 2/3 of the streamwise spacing of the vortices. The result demonstrated the applicability of the theory developed by Pierrehumbet and Widnall. Compressibility effects were then considered and the maximum growth rates obtained for relatively high Mach numbers (typically under 0.8) were also presented.

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A series of nine new [3-(disubstituted-phosphate)-4,4,4-trifluoro-butyl]-carbamic acid ethyl esters (phosphate-carbamate compounds) was obtained through the reaction of (4,4,4-trifluoro-3-hydroxybut-1-yl)-carbamic acid ethyl esters with phosphorus oxychloride followed by the addition of alcohols. The products were characterized by ¹H, 13C, 31P, and 19F NMR spectroscopy, GC-MS, and elemental analysis. All the synthesized compounds were screened for acetylcholinesterase (AChE) inhibitory activity using the Ellman method. All compounds containing phosphate and carbamate pharmacophores in their structures showed enzyme inhibition, being the compound bearing the diethoxy phosphate group (2b) the most active compound. Molecular modeling studies were performed to investigate the detailed interactions between AChE active site and small-molecule inhibitor candidates, providing valuable structural insights into AChE inhibition.

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PURPOSE: The ability to predict and understand which biomechanical properties of the cornea are responsible for the stability or progression of keratoconus may be an important clinical and surgical tool for the eye-care professional. We have developed a finite element model of the cornea, that tries to predicts keratoconus-like behavior and its evolution based on material properties of the corneal tissue. METHODS: Corneal material properties were modeled using bibliographic data and corneal topography was based on literature values from a schematic eye model. Commercial software was used to simulate mechanical and surface properties when the cornea was subject to different local parameters, such as elasticity. RESULTS: The simulation has shown that, depending on the corneal initial surface shape, changes in local material properties and also different intraocular pressures values induce a localized protuberance and increase in curvature when compared to the remaining portion of the cornea. CONCLUSIONS: This technique provides a quantitative and accurate approach to the problem of understanding the biomechanical nature of keratoconus. The implemented model has shown that changes in local material properties of the cornea and intraocular pressure are intrinsically related to keratoconus pathology and its shape/curvature.

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In recent years, we have experienced increasing interest in the understanding of the physical properties of collisionless plasmas, mostly because of the large number of astrophysical environments (e. g. the intracluster medium (ICM)) containing magnetic fields that are strong enough to be coupled with the ionized gas and characterized by densities sufficiently low to prevent the pressure isotropization with respect to the magnetic line direction. Under these conditions, a new class of kinetic instabilities arises, such as firehose and mirror instabilities, which have been studied extensively in the literature. Their role in the turbulence evolution and cascade process in the presence of pressure anisotropy, however, is still unclear. In this work, we present the first statistical analysis of turbulence in collisionless plasmas using three-dimensional numerical simulations and solving double-isothermal magnetohydrodynamic equations with the Chew-Goldberger-Low laws closure (CGL-MHD). We study models with different initial conditions to account for the firehose and mirror instabilities and to obtain different turbulent regimes. We found that the CGL-MHD subsonic and supersonic turbulences show small differences compared to the MHD models in most cases. However, in the regimes of strong kinetic instabilities, the statistics, i.e. the probability distribution functions (PDFs) of density and velocity, are very different. In subsonic models, the instabilities cause an increase in the dispersion of density, while the dispersion of velocity is increased by a large factor in some cases. Moreover, the spectra of density and velocity show increased power at small scales explained by the high growth rate of the instabilities. Finally, we calculated the structure functions of velocity and density fluctuations in the local reference frame defined by the direction of magnetic lines. The results indicate that in some cases the instabilities significantly increase the anisotropy of fluctuations. These results, even though preliminary and restricted to very specific conditions, show that the physical properties of turbulence in collisionless plasmas, as those found in the ICM, may be very different from what has been largely believed.

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Using series solutions and time-domain evolutions, we probe the eikonal limit of the gravitational and scalar-field quasinormal modes of large black holes and black branes in anti-de Sitter backgrounds. These results are particularly relevant for the AdS/CFT correspondence, since the eikonal regime is characterized by the existence of long-lived modes which (presumably) dominate the decay time scale of the perturbations. We confirm all the main qualitative features of these slowly damped modes as predicted by Festuccia and Liu [G. Festuccia and H. Liu, arXiv:0811.1033.] for the scalar-field (tensor-type gravitational) fluctuations. However, quantitatively we find dimensional-dependent correction factors. We also investigate the dependence of the quasinormal mode frequencies on the horizon radius of the black hole (brane) and the angular momentum (wave number) of vector- and scalar-type gravitational perturbations.

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A new criterion has been recently proposed combining the topological instability (lambda criterion) and the average electronegativity difference (Delta e) among the elements of an alloy to predict and select new glass-forming compositions. In the present work, this criterion (lambda.Delta e) is applied to the Al-Ni-La and Al-Ni-Gd ternary systems and its predictability is validated using literature data for both systems and additionally, using own experimental data for the Al-La-Ni system. The compositions with a high lambda.Delta e value found in each ternary system exhibit a very good correlation with the glass-forming ability of different alloys as indicated by their supercooled liquid regions (Delta T(x)) and their critical casting thicknesses. In the case of the Al-La-Ni system, the alloy with the largest lambda.Delta e value, La(56)Al(26.5)Ni(17.5), exhibits the highest glass-forming ability verified for this system. Therefore, the combined lambda.Delta e criterion is a simple and efficient tool to select new glass-forming compositions in Al-Ni-RE systems. (C) 2011 American Institute of Physics. [doi: 10.1063/1.3563099]

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This paper proposes an architecture for machining process and production monitoring to be applied in machine tools with open Computer numerical control (CNC). A brief description of the advantages of using open CNC for machining process and production monitoring is presented with an emphasis on the CNC architecture using a personal computer (PC)-based human-machine interface. The proposed architecture uses the CNC data and sensors to gather information about the machining process and production. It allows the development of different levels of monitoring systems with mininium investment, minimum need for sensor installation, and low intrusiveness to the process. Successful examples of the utilization of this architecture in a laboratory environment are briefly described. As a Conclusion, it is shown that a wide range of monitoring solutions can be implemented in production processes using the proposed architecture.

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In this paper we discuss the use of photonic crystal fibers (PCFs) as discrete devices for simultaneous wideband dispersion compensation and Raman amplification. The performance of the PCFs in terms of gain, ripple, optical signal-to-noise ratio (OSNR) and required fiber length for complete dispersion compensation is compared with conventional dispersion compensating fibers (DCFs). The main goal is to determine the minimum PCF loss beyond which its performance surpasses a state-of-the-art DCF and justifies practical use in telecommunication systems. (C) 2009 Optical Society of America

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Shot peening is a cold-working mechanical process in which a shot stream is propelled against a component surface. Its purpose is to introduce compressive residual stresses on component surfaces for increasing the fatigue resistance. This process is widely applied in springs due to the cyclical loads requirements. This paper presents a numerical modelling of shot peening process using the finite element method. The results are compared with experimental measurements of the residual stresses, obtained by the X-rays diffraction technique, in leaf springs submitted to this process. Furthermore, the results are compared with empirical and numerical correlations developed by other authors.

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Identification, prediction, and control of a system are engineering subjects, regardless of the nature of the system. Here, the temporal evolution of the number of individuals with dengue fever weekly recorded in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, during 2007, is used to identify SIS (susceptible-infective-susceptible) and SIR (susceptible-infective-removed) models formulated in terms of cellular automaton (CA). In the identification process, a genetic algorithm (GA) is utilized to find the probabilities of the state transition S -> I able of reproducing in the CA lattice the historical series of 2007. These probabilities depend on the number of infective neighbors. Time-varying and non-time-varying probabilities, three different sizes of lattices, and two kinds of coupling topology among the cells are taken into consideration. Then, these epidemiological models built by combining CA and GA are employed for predicting the cases of sick persons in 2008. Such models can be useful for forecasting and controlling the spreading of this infectious disease.

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The aim of this study was to compare REML/BLUP and Least Square procedures in the prediction and estimation of genetic parameters and breeding values in soybean progenies. F(2:3) and F(4:5) progenies were evaluated in the 2005/06 growing season and the F(2:4) and F(4:6) generations derived thereof were evaluated in 2006/07. These progenies were originated from two semi-early, experimental lines that differ in grain yield. The experiments were conducted in a lattice design and plots consisted of a 2 m row, spaced 0.5 m apart. The trait grain yield per plot was evaluated. It was observed that early selection is more efficient for the discrimination of the best lines from the F(4) generation onwards. No practical differences were observed between the least square and REML/BLUP procedures in the case of the models and simplifications for REML/BLUP used here.

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Various methods are currently used in order to predict shallow landslides within the catchment scale. Among them, physically based models present advantages associated with the physical description of processes by means of mathematical equations. The main objective of this research is the prediction of shallow landslides using TRIGRS model, in a pilot catchment located at Serra do Mar mountain range, Sao Paulo State, southeastern Brazil. Susceptibility scenarios have been simulated taking into account different mechanical and hydrological values. These scenarios were analysed based on a landslide scars map from the January 1985 event, upon which two indexes were applied: Scars Concentration (SC - ratio between the number of cells with scars, in each class, and the total number of cells with scars within the catchment) and Landslide Potential (LP - ratio between the number of cells with scars, in each class, and the total number of cells in that same class). The results showed a significant agreement between the simulated scenarios and the scar's map. In unstable areas (SF <= 1), the SC values exceeded 50% in all scenarios. Based on the results, the use of this model should be considered an important tool for shallow landslide prediction, especially in areas where mechanical and hydrological properties of the materials are not well known.

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The Perseus galaxy cluster is known to present multiple and misaligned pairs of cavities seen in X-rays, as well as twisted kiloparsec-scale jets at radio wavelengths; both morphologies suggest that the active galactic nucleus (AGN) jet is subject to precession. In this work, we performed three-dimensional hydrodynamical simulations of the interaction between a precessing AGN jet and the warm intracluster medium plasma, whose dynamics are coupled to a Navarro-Frenk-White dark matter gravitational potential. The AGN jet inflates cavities that become buoyantly unstable and rise up out of the cluster core. We found that under certain circumstances precession can originate multiple pairs of bubbles. For the physical conditions in the Perseus cluster, multiple pairs of bubbles are obtained for a jet precession opening angle >40 degrees acting for at least three precession periods, reproducing both radio and X-ray maps well. Based on such conditions, assuming that the Bardeen-Peterson effect is dominant, we studied the evolution of the precession opening angle of this system. We were able to constrain the ratio between the accretion disk and the black hole angular momenta as 0.7-1.4. We were also able to constrain the present precession angle to 30 degrees-40 degrees, as well as the approximate age of the inflated bubbles to 100-150 Myr.