Pedal : identification of models for duodenal administration of levodopa

Backgound and aims: The main purpose of the PEDAL study is to identify and estimate sample individual pharmacokinetic- pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) models for duodenal infusion of levodopa/carbidopa (Duodopa®) that can be used for in numero simulation of treatment strategies. Other objectives are to study the absorption of Duodopa® and to form a basis for power calculation for a future larger study. PK/PD based on oral levodopa is problematic because of irregular gastric emptying. Preliminary work with data from [Gundert-Remy U et al. Eur J Clin Pharmacol 1983;25:69-72] suggested that levodopa infusion pharmacokinetics can be described by a two-compartment model. Background research led to a hypothesis for an effect model incorporating concentration-unrelated fluctuations, more complex than standard E-max models. Methods: PEDAL involved a few patients already on Duodopa®. A bolus dose (normal morning dose plus 50%) was given after a washout during night. Data collection continued until the clinical effect was back at baseline. The procedure was repeated on two non-consecutive days per patient. The following data were collected in 5 to 15 minutes intervals: i) Accelerometer data. ii) Three e-diary questions about ability to walk, feelings of “off” and “dyskinesia”. iii) Clinical assessment of motor function by a physician. iv) Plasma concentrations of levodopa, carbidopa and the metabolite 3-O-methyldopa. The main effect variable will be the clinical assessment. Results: At date of abstract submission, lab analyses were currently being performed. Modelling results, simulation experiments and conclusions will be presented in our poster.

Psychometric properties of the Swedish version of the Fear of Complications Questionnaire

Objectives: To translate and evaluate the psychometric properties of the Swedish version of the Fear of Complications Questionnaire. Design: Cross-sectional study design and scale development. Settings: Totally, 469 adults (response rate 63.5%) with Type 1 diabetes completed the questionnaires. Participants were recruited from two university hospitals in Sweden. Participants: Eligible patients were those who met the following inclusion criteria: diagnosed with Type 1 diabetes, diabetes duration of at least 1 year and aged at least 18 years. Methods: The Fear of Complications Questionnaire was translated using the forward-backward translation method. Factor analyses of the questionnaire were performed in two steps using both exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis. Convergent validity was examined using the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale and the Fear of Hypoglycaemia Fear Survey. Internal consistency was estimated using Cronbach’s alpha.Results: Exploratory factor analysis supported a two-factor solution. One factor contained three items having to do with fear of kidney-related complications and one factor included the rest of items concerning fear of other diabetes-related complications, as well as fear of complications in general. Internal consistency was high Cronbach’s alpha 0.96. The findings also gave support for convergent validity, with significant positive correlations between measures (r = 0.51 to 0.54). Conclusion: The clinical relevance of the identified two-factor model with a structure of one dominant subdomain may be considered. We suggest, however a one-factor model covering all the items as a relevant basis to assess fear of complications among people with Type 1 diabetes.

Yet another reason to tax goods

The optimal taxation of goods, labor and capital income is considered in a two period model where: i) private information changes through time; ii) savings are not observed, and; iii) savings a§ect preferences conditional on the realization of types. The simultaneous appearance of these three elements cause optimal commodity taxes to depend on o§-equilibrium savings. As a consequence, separability no longer su¢ ces for the uniform taxation prescription of Atkinson and Stiglitz (AS) to obtain. If preferences are homothetic AS is partially restored: taxes are uniform within periods, however, future consumption is taxed at a higher rate than current consumption.

Brazilian indexing and inertial inflation: evidence from time-varying estimates of an inflation transfer function

This paper is a theoretica1 and empirica1 study of the re1ationship between indexing po1icy and feedback mechanisms in the inflationary adjustment process in Brazil. The focus of our study is on two policy issues: (1) did the Brazilian system of indexing of interest rates, the exchange rate, and wages make inflation so dependent on its own past values that it created a significant feedback process and inertia in the behaviour of inflation in and (2) was the feedback effect of past inf1ation upon itself so strong that dominated the effect of monetary/fiscal variables upon current inflation? This paper develops a simple model designed to capture several "stylized facts" of Brazi1ian indexing po1icy. Separate ru1es of "backward indexing" for interest rates, the exchange rate, and wages, reflecting the evolution of po1icy changes in Brazil, are incorporated in a two-sector model of industrial and agricultural prices. A transfer function derived irom this mode1 shows inflation depending on three factors: (1) past values of inflation, (2) monetary and fiscal variables, and (3) supply- .shock variables. The indexing rules for interest rates, the exchange rate, and wages place restrictions on the coefficients of the transfer function. Variations in the policy-determined parameters of the indexing rules imply changes in the coefficients of the transfer function for inflation. One implication of this model, in contrast to previous results derived in analytically simpler models of indexing, is that a higher degree of indexing does not make current inflation more responsive to current monetary shocks. The empirical section of this paper studies the central hypotheses of this model through estimation of the inflation transfer function with time-varying parameters. The results show a systematic non-random variation of the transfer function coefficients closely synchronized with changes in the observed values of the wage-indexing parameters. Non-parametric tests show the variation of the transfer function coefficients to be statistically significant at the time of the changes in wage indexing rules in Brazil. As the degree of indexing increased, the inflation feadback coefficients increased, while the effect of external price and agricultura shocs progressively increased and monetary effects progressively decreased.

Endogenous growth with deferred technological change

Lucas (2009) propôs um modelo com dois setores para explicar padrões observados em dados de crescimento. Entretanto, a análise de Lucas não envolve uma decisão intertemporal para o consumidor. O comportamento das variáveis é determinado à priori pela tecnologia escolhida. Rodriguez (2006) propôs um modelo com a tecnologia com dois setores apresentada por Lucas adicionando um processo de decisão intertemporal para o consumidor. Adicionalmente aos resultados obtidos por Rodriguez, nós caracterizamos suficiência e apresentamos exemplos esclarecedores de casos particulares do modelo. Ademais, nós fazemos um esforço para derivar novos insights e esclarecer alguns pontos técnicos. Finalmente, nós obtemos condições sob as quais a economia investe em capital humano mesmo com benefícios diferidos.

Efeitos dinâmicos de programas de estabilização

Com o emprego do modelo de dois setores de acumulação ótima de capital em economia aberta, determina-se o impacto sobre a trajetória do câmbio, dos salários, do investimento, da poupança e, portanto, da dívida externa e do estoque de capital, de uma elevação permanente e não antecipada da produtividade da economia. Em geral, após um choque positivo permanente de produtividade há redução da poupança, piora do balanço de pagamentos em transações correntes e valorização do câmbio. Todos fenômenos que do ponto de vista do modelo são de equilíbrio intertemporal, conseqüência da elevação da renda permanente e do excesso de demanda por bens domésticos que sucede o ganho de produtividade. Supondo que os programas de estabilização elevaram a produtividade da economia é possível com a estrutura analítica construída racionalizar qualitativamente os fenômenos observados após estes planos.

Previsão da estrutura a termo de taxa de juros aplicando o Filtro de Kalman ao modelo Vasicek: o caso brasileiro

Este trabalho tem o objetivo de testar a qualidade preditiva do Modelo Vasicek de dois fatores acoplado ao Filtro de Kalman. Aplicado a uma estratégia de investimento, incluímos um critério de Stop Loss nos períodos que o modelo não responde de forma satisfatória ao movimento das taxas de juros. Utilizando contratos futuros de DI disponíveis na BMFBovespa entre 01 de março de 2007 a 30 de maio de 2014, as simulações foram realizadas em diferentes momentos de mercado, verificando qual a melhor janela para obtenção dos parâmetros dos modelos, e por quanto tempo esses parâmetros estimam de maneira ótima o comportamento das taxas de juros. Os resultados foram comparados com os obtidos pelo Modelo Vetor-auto regressivo de ordem 1, e constatou-se que o Filtro de Kalman aplicado ao Modelo Vasicek de dois fatores não é o mais indicado para estudos relacionados a previsão das taxas de juros. As limitações desse modelo o restringe em conseguir estimar toda a curva de juros de uma só vez denegrindo seus resultados.

Health and development with imperfect capital markets

This paper investigates the interaction between investment in education and in life-expanding investments, in a simple two-period model in which individuaIs are liquidity constrained in the first period. We show that under low leveIs of health and capital, investments in human capital and in health are complement: since the probability of survival is small, there is littIe incentive to invest in human capital; therefore the return on health investment is also low. This reinforcing effect does not hold for higher leveIs of health or capital, and the two investments become substitute. This property has many consequences. First, subsidizing health care may have dramatically different effects on private investment in human capital, depending on the initial leveI of health and capital. Second, the assumption that mortality is endogenous induces an increase in inequality of income: since health investment is a normal good, the return on education is also lower for poor individuaIs. Third,in a non-overlapping generation madel with non-altruistic agents, the hea1th leveI of the population has strong consequences on growth. For a very low leveI of hea1th, mortality is too high for the investment on education to be profitable. For a higher, but still low, levei of hea1th the economy grows on1y if the initial stock of capital is high enough; bad health and low capital create a poverty trapo Fourth, we compare redistributive income policies versus public hea1th measures. Redistributing income reduces both static and dynamic inequality, but slows growth. In contrast, a paternalistic health policy that forces the poor to invest in hea1th reduces dynamic inequality and may foster growth.

Ajustamento de uma economia após uma elevação da produtividade

Employing the two sector model of capital accumulation in an open economy, the impact on the path of the following variables: exchange rate, wages, investment, saving, and consequently externaI debt and capital stock afier a permanent and non expected elevation of the economy productivity is determinated. Afier this positive shock, saving rate decreases, current transaction deteriorates and the exchange rate appreciates. Those are equilibrium phenomena from 3D intertemporaI point of view due to the permanent income raise and to the domestic good excess demand that follows the productivity increase. Assuming that the stabilization programa augment the economy productivity, the model could rationalize qualitatively the stylized facts witnessed after those programa.

Toward a theory of international currency : a step further

We generalize the two-country, two-currency model of Matsuyama, Kiyotaki and Matsui to resolve two "shortcomings" in their approach. First, we endogenize prices and excb.ange rates. Second, we introduce monetary policy. We then use the model to address the following new questions: How does the fact that a currency circulates intemationally affect its purcb.asing power? Where does an intemational currency purcb.ase more? What are the effects on seignorage and welfare when a currency becomes intemational? How is policy affected by concems of currency substitution? How are national monetary policies connected, and what is the scope for international cooperation?

Technology adoption and effects of transfers across locations

This paper develops a two-period model with heterogeneous agents to analyze the e¤ects of transfers across locations on convergence, growth and welfare. The model has two important features. First, locations are asymmetric as it is assumed that there are more specialized occupations in the more developed one. Second, the returns on the investment to acquire new technology depend positively on the level of each region’s knowledge and on the level of the world knowledge assumed to be available to all. In one hand, the poor region has a disadvantage as it has a lower stock of knowledge. On the other hand, it has the advantage of not having yet exploited a greater stock of useable knowledge available in the world. Hence, there are two possible cases. When the returns are greater in the poor region, we obtain the following results: (i) the rich location grows slower; (ii) the transfers to the poor location enhances the country’s growth rate; and (iii) there is a positive amount of transfers to the poor region that is welfare improving. When the returns are greater in the rich region, the …rst two results are reversed and transfers to the rich region are welfare improving. In both cases, the optimal amount of transfer increases with the level of income disparity across regions and is not dependent on the level of the country’s economic development (measured by its income per capita). Barriers to the adoption of new technology available in the world can constrain the convergence process as it harms in greater length the poor region. The results do not change whether migration is allowed or not.

A Theory of voter experimentation in repeated elections

Nesse artigo, eu desenvolvo e analiso um modelo de dois perí odos em que dois polí ticos competem pela preferência de um eleitor representativo, que sabe quão benevolente é um dos polí ticos mas é imperfeitamente informado sobre quão benevolente é o segundo polí tico. O polí tico conhecido é interpretado como um incumbente de longo prazo, ao passo que o polí tico desconhecido é interpretado como um desa fiante menos conhecido. É estabelecido que o mecanismo de provisão de incentivos inerente às elei cões - que surge através da possibilidade de não reeleger um incumbente - e considerações acerca de aquisi cão de informa cão por parte do eleitor se combinam de modo a determinar que em qualquer equilí brio desse jogo o eleitor escolhe o polí tico desconhecido no per íodo inicial do modelo - uma a cão à qual me refi ro como experimenta cão -, fornecendo assim uma racionaliza cão para a não reelei cão de incumbentes longevos. Especifi camente, eu mostro que a decisão do eleitor quanto a quem eleger no per odo inicial se reduz à compara cão entre os benefí cios informacionais de escolher o polí tico desconhecido e as perdas econômicas de fazê-lo. Os primeiros, que capturam as considera cões relacionadas à aquisi cão de informa cão, são mostrados serem sempre positivos, ao passo que as últimas, que capturam o incentivo à boa performance, são sempre não-negativas, implicando que é sempre ótimo para o eleitor escolher o polí tico desconhecido no per íodo inicial.

Tributação de energia elétrica e bem-estar social: uma análise regional

Os reflexos da tributação sobre o setor elétrico ultrapassam as questões meramente arrecadatórias de estados, municípios e União, envolvem toda a produção do país e o bem-estar de sua população. Neste contexto, e com o intuito de trazer as questões de eficiência e redistributividade ao ambiente de tributação de energia elétrica, o presente trabalho pretende apresentar um panorama da tributação atual do consumo residencial de energia elétrica, principalmente em relação ao ICMS, juntamente com um cálculo simplificado de alíquotas considerando dois modelos de tributação ótima, estabelecidos por F. R. Ramsey e Diamond e Mirrlees, a partir dos quais é possível realizar comparações em relação ao modelo atual e sintetizar uma visão nacional de uma tributação realizada em sua maior parte regionalmente. O primeiro modelo considera apenas eficiência na definição das alíquotas aplicadas aos produtos, partindo da premissa de que todos os consumidores são idênticos e não há preocupações com equidade. As elasticidades necessárias para aplicação do critério de Ramsey são estimadas a partir de dados em painel das 64 distribuidoras de energia elétrica do país, utilizando um modelo em dois estágios com variável instrumental. O segundo modelo, proposto por Diamond e Mirrlees, incorpora a equidade na modelagem, introduzindo a diferenciação entre os indivíduos.

Conversão térmica e termocatalítica à baixa temperatura do óleo de girassol para obtenção de bio-óleo

The use of biofuels remotes to the eighteenth century, when Rudolf Diesel made the first trials using peanut oil as fuel in a compression ignition engine. Based on these trials, there was the need for some chemical change to vegetable oil. Among these chemical transformations, we can mention the cracking and transesterification. This work aims at conducting a study using the thermocatalytic and thermal cracking of sunflower oil, using the Al-MCM-41 catalyst. The material type mesoporous Al-MCM-41 was synthesized and characterized by Hydrothermical methods of X-ray diffraction, scanning electron microscopy, nitrogen adsorption, absorption spectroscopy in the infrared and thermal gravimetric analysis (TG / DTG).The study was conducted on the thermogravimetric behavior of sunflower oil on the mesoporous catalyst cited. Activation energy, conversion, and oil degradation as a function of temperature were estimated based on the integral curves of thermogravimetric analysis and the kinetic method of Vyazovkin. The mesoporous material Al-MCM-41 showed one-dimensional hexagonal formation. The study of the kinetic behavior of sunflower oil with the catalyst showed a lower activation energy against the activation energy of pure sunflower oil. Two liquid fractions of sunflower oil were obtained, both in thermal and thermocatalytic pyrolisis. The first fraction obtained was called bio-oil and the second fraction obtained was called acid fraction. The acid fraction collected, in thermal and thermocatalytic pyrolisis, showed very high level of acidity, which is why it was called acid fraction. The first fraction was collected bio-called because it presented results in the range similar to petroleum diesel

Repercussões psico-sociais da síndrome dos ovários policísticos: estudo quali-quantitativo

BACKGROUND: Polycystic ovary syndrame (PCOS) has been shown to cause a reduction in quality of life. Little is known on the psychosocial aspects associated with PCOS, especially on women s own experiences regarding the syndrome. Therefore, the aim of this study was to analyze the psychosocial impact of PCOS by measuring the health-related quality of life and exploring the women s own experiences of PCOS. METHODS: A two-phase model of combination of quantitative and qualitative research approaches was conducted, a crass-sectional survey to pravide quantitative data on the quality of life and a qualitative approach to understand the women s experience in relation to the PC OS sympt?ms. For the first phase, 109 women with PC OS and 104 healthy contrais were evaluated with the 36-item short-form health survey (SF-36). Additionally, semi-structured interviews (n=30) were conducted to facilitate in-depth exploration of PC OS women s experience. RESUL TS: PCOS patients showed significant reductions in almost ali SF-36 domains of quality of life when compared with healthy contrais (physical function 76.5:!:20.5 and 84.6:!:15.9, respectively; physical rale function 56.4:!:43.3 and 72.6:!:33.3; general health 55.2:!:21.0 and 62.5:!:17.2; vitality 49.6:!:21.3 and 55.3:!:21.3; social function 55.3:!:32.4 and 66.2:!:26.7; emotional rale function 34.2:!:39.7 and 52.9:!:38.2; mental health 50.6:!:22.8 and 59.2:!:20.2). Thematic analysis revealed reports of feeling abnormal , sadness, afraid and anxiety. These feelings were related to four symptoms commonly experienced by women with PCOS: excess hair grawth; irregular or absent menstruation, infertility and obesity. CONCLUSIONS: Polycystic ovary syndrame impacts women both physically and psychosocially. Owing to this, women with PCOS need not only medical treatment for. the reproductive, esthetic and metabolic repercussions, but also the care of a multidisciplinary team, since PCOS is not just a physical condition, but also an important psychosocial problem that affects various aspects of a woman s life