937 resultados para Negative Binomial Model
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Abstract Background Smear negative pulmonary tuberculosis (SNPT) accounts for 30% of pulmonary tuberculosis cases reported yearly in Brazil. This study aimed to develop a prediction model for SNPT for outpatients in areas with scarce resources. Methods The study enrolled 551 patients with clinical-radiological suspicion of SNPT, in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The original data was divided into two equivalent samples for generation and validation of the prediction models. Symptoms, physical signs and chest X-rays were used for constructing logistic regression and classification and regression tree models. From the logistic regression, we generated a clinical and radiological prediction score. The area under the receiver operator characteristic curve, sensitivity, and specificity were used to evaluate the model's performance in both generation and validation samples. Results It was possible to generate predictive models for SNPT with sensitivity ranging from 64% to 71% and specificity ranging from 58% to 76%. Conclusion The results suggest that those models might be useful as screening tools for estimating the risk of SNPT, optimizing the utilization of more expensive tests, and avoiding costs of unnecessary anti-tuberculosis treatment. Those models might be cost-effective tools in a health care network with hierarchical distribution of scarce resources.
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Resonant states are multiply excited states in atoms and ions that have enough energy to decay by emitting an electron. The ability to emit an electron and the strong electron correlation (which is extra strong in negative ions) makes these states both interesting and challenging from a theoretical point of view. The main contribution in this thesis is a method, which combines the use of B splines and complex rotation, to solve the three-electron Schrödinger equation treating all three electrons equally. It is used to calculate doubly excited and triply excited states of 4S symmetry with even parity in He-. For the doubly excited states there are experimental and theoretical data to compare with. For the triply excited states there is only theoretical data available and only for one of the resonances. The agreement is in general good. For the triply excited state there is a significant and interesting difference in the width between our calculation and another method. A cause for this deviation is suggested. The method is also used to find a resonant state of 4S symmetry with odd parity in H2-. This state, in this extremely negative system, has been predicted by two earlier calculations but is highly controversial. Several other studies presented here focus on two-electron systems. In one, the effect of the splitting of the degenerate H(n=2) thresholds in H-, on the resonant states converging to this threshold, is studied. If a completely degenerate threshold is assumed an infinite series of states is expected to converge to the threshold. Here states of 1P symmetry and odd parity are examined, and it is found that the relativistic and radiative splitting of the threshold causes the series to end after only three resonant states. Since the independent particle model completely fails for doubly excited states, several schemes of alternative quantum numbers have been suggested. We investigate the so called DESB (Doubly Excited Symmetry Basis) quantum numbers in several calculations. For the doubly excited states of He- mentioned above we investigate one resonance and find that it cannot be assigned DESB quantum numbers unambiguously. We also investigate these quantum numbers for states of 1S even parity in He. We find two types of mixing of DESB states in the doubly excited states calculated. We also show that the amount of mixing of DESB quantum numbers can be inferred from the value of the cosine of the inter-electronic angle. In a study on Li- the calculated cosine values are used to identify doubly excited states measured in a photodetachment experiment. In particular a resonant state that violates a propensity rule is found.
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Background and rationale for the study. This study investigated whether human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection adversely affects the prognosis of patients diagnosed with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).Thirty-four HIV-positive patients with chronic liver disease, consecutively diagnosed with HCC from 1998 to 2007 were one-to-one matched with 34 HIV negative controls for: sex, liver function (Child-Turcotte-Pugh class [CTP]), cancer stage (BCLC model) and, whenever possible, age, etiology of liver disease and modality of cancer diagnosis. Survival in the two groups and independent prognostic predictors were assessed. Results. Among HIV patients 88% were receiving HAART. HIV-RNA was undetectable in 65% of cases; median lymphocyte CD4+ count was 368.5/mmc. Etiology of liver disease was mostly related to HCV infection. CTP class was: A in 38%, B in 41%, C in 21% of cases. BCLC cancer stage was: early in 50%, intermediate in 23.5%, advanced in 5.9%, end-stage in 20.6% of cases. HCC treatments and death causes did not differ between the two groups. Median survival did not differ, being 16 months (95% CI: 6-26) in HIV positive and 23 months (95% CI: 5-41) in HIV negative patients (P=0.391). BCLC cancer stage and HCC treatment proved to be independent predictors of survival both in the whole population and in HIV patients. Conclusions. Survival of HIV infected patients receiving antiretroviral therapy and diagnosed with HCC is similar to that of HIV negative patients bearing this tumor. Prognosis is determined by the cancer bulk and its treatment.
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The aim of the present thesis was to investigate the influence of lower-limb joint models on musculoskeletal model predictions during gait. We started our analysis by using a baseline model, i.e., the state-of-the-art lower-limb model (spherical joint at the hip and hinge joints at the knee and ankle) created from MRI of a healthy subject in the Medical Technology Laboratory of the Rizzoli Orthopaedic Institute. We varied the models of knee and ankle joints, including: knee- and ankle joints with mean instantaneous axis of rotation, universal joint at the ankle, scaled-generic-derived planar knee, subject-specific planar knee model, subject-specific planar ankle model, spherical knee, spherical ankle. The joint model combinations corresponding to 10 musculoskeletal models were implemented into a typical inverse dynamics problem, including inverse kinematics, inverse dynamics, static optimization and joint reaction analysis algorithms solved using the OpenSim software to calculate joint angles, joint moments, muscle forces and activations, joint reaction forces during 5 walking trials. The predicted muscle activations were qualitatively compared to experimental EMG, to evaluate the accuracy of model predictions. Planar joint at the knee, universal joint at the ankle and spherical joints at the knee and at the ankle produced appreciable variations in model predictions during gait trials. The planar knee joint model reduced the discrepancy between the predicted activation of the Rectus Femoris and the EMG (with respect to the baseline model), and the reduced peak knee reaction force was considered more accurate. The use of the universal joint, with the introduction of the subtalar joint, worsened the muscle activation agreement with the EMG, and increased ankle and knee reaction forces were predicted. The spherical joints, in particular at the knee, worsened the muscle activation agreement with the EMG. A substantial increase of joint reaction forces at all joints was predicted despite of the good agreement in joint kinematics with those of the baseline model. The introduction of the universal joint had a negative effect on the model predictions. The cause of this discrepancy is likely to be found in the definition of the subtalar joint and thus, in the particular subject’s anthropometry, used to create the model and define the joint pose. We concluded that the implementation of complex joint models do not have marked effects on the joint reaction forces during gait. Computed results were similar in magnitude and in pattern to those reported in literature. Nonetheless, the introduction of planar joint model at the knee had positive effect upon the predictions, while the use of spherical joint at the knee and/or at the ankle is absolutely unadvisable, because it predicted unrealistic joint reaction forces.
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A field of computational neuroscience develops mathematical models to describe neuronal systems. The aim is to better understand the nervous system. Historically, the integrate-and-fire model, developed by Lapique in 1907, was the first model describing a neuron. In 1952 Hodgkin and Huxley [8] described the so called Hodgkin-Huxley model in the article “A Quantitative Description of Membrane Current and Its Application to Conduction and Excitation in Nerve”. The Hodgkin-Huxley model is one of the most successful and widely-used biological neuron models. Based on experimental data from the squid giant axon, Hodgkin and Huxley developed their mathematical model as a four-dimensional system of first-order ordinary differential equations. One of these equations characterizes the membrane potential as a process in time, whereas the other three equations depict the opening and closing state of sodium and potassium ion channels. The membrane potential is proportional to the sum of ionic current flowing across the membrane and an externally applied current. For various types of external input the membrane potential behaves differently. This thesis considers the following three types of input: (i) Rinzel and Miller [15] calculated an interval of amplitudes for a constant applied current, where the membrane potential is repetitively spiking; (ii) Aihara, Matsumoto and Ikegaya [1] said that dependent on the amplitude and the frequency of a periodic applied current the membrane potential responds periodically; (iii) Izhikevich [12] stated that brief pulses of positive and negative current with different amplitudes and frequencies can lead to a periodic response of the membrane potential. In chapter 1 the Hodgkin-Huxley model is introduced according to Izhikevich [12]. Besides the definition of the model, several biological and physiological notes are made, and further concepts are described by examples. Moreover, the numerical methods to solve the equations of the Hodgkin-Huxley model are presented which were used for the computer simulations in chapter 2 and chapter 3. In chapter 2 the statements for the three different inputs (i), (ii) and (iii) will be verified, and periodic behavior for the inputs (ii) and (iii) will be investigated. In chapter 3 the inputs are embedded in an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process to see the influence of noise on the results of chapter 2.
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Neuronal hyperexcitability following peripheral nerve lesions may stem from altered activity of voltage-gated sodium channels (VGSCs), which gives rise to allodynia or hyperalgesia. In vitro, the ubiquitin ligase Nedd4-2 is a negative regulator of VGSC α-subunits (Na(v)), in particular Na(v)1.7, a key actor in nociceptor excitability. We therefore studied Nedd4-2 in rat nociceptors, its co-expression with Na(v)1.7 and Na(v)1.8, and its regulation in pathology. Adult rats were submitted to the spared nerve injury (SNI) model of neuropathic pain or injected with complete Freund's adjuvant (CFA), a model of inflammatory pain. L4 dorsal root ganglia (DRG) were analyzed in sham-operated animals, seven days after SNI and 48 h after CFA with immunofluorescence and Western blot. We observed Nedd4-2 expression in almost 50% of DRG neurons, mostly small and medium-sized. A preponderant localization is found in the non-peptidergic sub-population. Additionally, 55.7 ± 2.7% and 55.0 ± 3.6% of Nedd4-2-positive cells are co-labeled with Na(v)1.7 and Na(v)1.8 respectively. SNI significantly decreases the proportion of Nedd4-2-positive neurons from 45.9 ± 1.9% to 33.5 ± 0.7% (p<0.01) and the total Nedd4-2 protein to 44% ± 0.13% of its basal level (p<0.01, n=4 animals in each group, mean ± SEM). In contrast, no change in Nedd4-2 was found after peripheral inflammation induced by CFA. These results indicate that Nedd4-2 is present in nociceptive neurons, is downregulated after peripheral nerve injury, and might therefore contribute to the dysregulation of Na(v)s involved in the hyperexcitability associated with peripheral nerve injuries.
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The α-hemoglobin-derived dodecapeptide RVD-hemopressin (RVDPVNFKLLSH) has been proposed to be an endogenous agonist for the cannabinoid receptor type 1 (CB(1)). To study this peptide, we have raised mAbs against its C-terminal part. Using an immunoaffinity mass spectrometry approach, a whole family of N-terminally extended peptides in addition to RVD-Hpα were identified in rodent brain extracts and human and mouse plasma. We designated these peptides Pepcan-12 (RVDPVNFKLLSH) to Pepcan-23 (SALSDLHAHKLRVDPVNFKLLSH), referring to peptide length. The most abundant Pepcans found in the brain were tested for CB(1) receptor binding. In the classical radioligand displacement assay, Pepcan-12 was the most efficacious ligand but only partially displaced both [(3)H]CP55,940 and [(3)H]WIN55,212-2. The data were fitted with the allosteric ternary complex model, revealing a cooperativity factor value α < 1, thus indicating a negative allosteric modulation. Dissociation kinetic studies of [(3)H]CP55,940 in the absence and presence of Pepcan-12 confirmed these results by showing increased dissociation rate constants induced by Pepcan-12. A fluorescently labeled Pepcan-12 analog was synthesized to investigate the binding to CB(1) receptors. Competition binding studies revealed K(i) values of several Pepcans in the nanomolar range. Accordingly, using competitive ELISA, we found low nanomolar concentrations of Pepcans in human plasma and ∼100 pmol/g in mouse brain. Surprisingly, Pepcan-12 exhibited potent negative allosteric modulation of the orthosteric agonist-induced cAMP accumulation, [(35)S]GTPγS binding, and CB(1) receptor internalization. Pepcans are the first endogenous allosteric modulators identified for CB(1) receptors. Given their abundance in the brain, Pepcans could play an important physiological role in modulating endocannabinoid signaling.
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The intestinal protozoan parasite Giardia lamblia causes diarrhoea in humans and animals. In the present study, we used the C57BL/6 inbred mouse model to assess the impact of a nematode (Trichinella spiralis) infection on the course of a G. lamblia (clone GS/M-83-H7) infection. Acute trichinellosis coincided with transient intestinal inflammation and generated an intestinal environment that strongly promoted growth of G. lamblia trophozoites although the local anti-Giardia immunoglobulin (Ig) A production was not affected. This increased G. lamblia infection intensity correlated with intestinal mast cell infiltration, mast cell degranulation, and total IgE production. Furthermore, a G. lamblia single-infection investigated in parallel also resulted in intestinal mast cell accumulation but severe infiltration was triggered in the absence of IgE. Recently, intestinal mast cells emerging during a G. lamblia infection were reported to be involved in those immunological mechanisms that control intestinal proliferation of the parasite in mice. This anti-giardial activity was assumed to be related to the capacity of mast cells to produce IL-6. However, this previous assumption was questioned by our present immunohistological findings indicating that murine intestinal mast cells, activated during a G. lamblia infection were IL-6-negative. In the present co-infection experiments, mast cells induced during acute trichinellosis were not able to control a concurrent G. lamblia infection. This observation makes it feasible that the T. spiralis infection created an immunological and physiological environment that superimposed the anti-giardial effect of mast cells and thus favoured intestinal growth of G. lamblia trophozoites in double-infected mice. Furthermore, our findings raise the possibility that intestinal inflammation e.g. as a consequence of a 'pre-existing' nematode infection is a factor which contributes to increased susceptibility of a host to a G. lamblia infection. The phenomenon of a 'pre-existing' nematode infection prior to a G. lamblia infection is a frequent constellation in endemic areas of giardiasis and may therefore have a direct impact on the epidemiological situation of the disease.
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BACKGROUND: Patients coinfected with hepatitis C virus (HCV) and HIV experience higher mortality rates than patients infected with HIV alone. We designed a study to determine whether risks for later mortality are similar for HCV-positive and HCV-negative individuals when subjects are stratified on the basis of baseline CD4+ T-cell counts. METHODS: Antiretroviral-naive individuals, who initiated highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) between 1996 and 2002 were included in the study. HCV-positive and HCV-negative individuals were stratified separately by baseline CD4+ T-cell counts of 50 cell/microl increments. Cox-proportional hazards regression was used to model the effect of these strata with other variables on survival. RESULTS: CD4+ T-cell strata below 200 cells/microl, but not above, imparted an increased relative hazard (RH) of mortality for both HCV-positive and HCV-negative individuals. Among HCV-positive individuals, after adjustment for baseline age, HIV RNA levels, history of injection drug use and adherence to therapy, only CD4+ T-cell strata of <50 cells/microl (RH=4.60; 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.72-7.76) and 50-199 cells/microl (RH=2.49; 95% CI 1.63-3.81) were significantly associated with increased mortality when compared with those initiating therapy at cell counts >500 cells/microl. The same baseline CD4+ T-cell strata were found for HCV-negative individuals. CONCLUSION: In a within-groups analysis, the baseline CD4+ T-cell strata that are associated with increased RHs for mortality are the same for HCV-positive and HCV-negative individuals initiating HAART. However, a between-groups analysis reveals a higher absolute mortality risk for HCV-positive individuals.
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Awake hamsters equipped with the dorsal window chamber preparation were subjected to hemorrhage of 50% of the estimated blood volume. Initial resuscitation (25% of estimated blood volume) with polymerized bovine hemoglobin (PBH) or 10% hydroxyethyl starch (HES) occurred in concert with an equivolumetric bleeding to simulate the early, prehospital setting (exchange transfusion). Resuscitation (25% of estimated blood volume) without bleeding was performed with PBH, HES, or autologous red blood cells (HES-RBCs). Peripheral microcirculation, tissue oxygenation, and systemic hemodynamic and blood gas parameters were assessed. After exchange transfusion, base deficit was -8.6 +/- 3.7 mmol/L (PBH) and -5.1 +/- 5.3 mmol/L (HES) (not significant). Functional capillary density was 17% +/- 6% of baseline (PBH) and 31% +/- 11% (HES) (P < 0.05) and arteriolar diameter 73% +/- 3% of baseline (PBH) and 90% + 5% (HES) (P < 0.01). At the end, hemoglobin levels were 3.7 +/- 0.3 g/dL with HES, 8.2 +/- 0.6 g/dL with PBH, and 10.4 +/- 0.8 g/dL with HES-RBCs (P < 0.01 HES vs. PBH and HES-RBCs, P < 0.05 PBH vs. HES-RBCs). Base excess was restored to baseline with PBH and HES-RBCs, but not with HES (P < 0.05). Functional capillary density was 46% +/- 5% of baseline (PBH), 62% + 20% (HES-RBCs), and 36% +/- 19% (HES) (P < 0.01 HES-RBCs vs. HES). Peripheral oxygen delivery and consumption was highest with HES-RBCs, followed by PBH (P < 0.05 HES-RBCs vs. PBH, P < 0.01 HES-RBCs and PBH vs. HES). In conclusion, the PBH led to a correction of base deficit comparable to blood transfusion. However, oxygenation of the peripheral tissue was inferior with PBH. This was attributed to its negative impact on the peripheral microcirculation caused by arteriolar vasoconstriction.
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OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to compare the efficacy of native engineered amniotic scaffolds (AS) and polyesterurethane scaffolds (DegraPol) and document wound healing response when sealing iatrogenic fetal membrane defects in the rabbit model. STUDY DESIGN: Native AS were engineered from freshly harvested membranes of 23 days' gestational age (GA; term = 31-2 d). Acellularity of AS was assessed by histology, light and scanning electron microscopy. Fetal membrane defects were created by 14 gauge-needle puncture at GA 23 days and primarily closed with AS (n = 10) or DegraPol (n = 10) or left unclosed (positive controls; n = 10). Sixty-one sacs served as negative controls. At GA 30 days a second look hysterotomy was performed to assess presence of amniotic fluid (AF) and harvest plugging sites for microscopic evaluation. RESULTS: Engineered AS had a cell-free collagenous fiber network. AF was significantly higher only in the DegraPol group (78%; P < .05) compared to the AF in positive controls (17%). Integration of plugs in the fetal membrane defect was better with AS than DegraPol, with higher reepithelialization rates (AS: 52.5% +/- 6.5%; DegraPol: 11.6% +/- 2.6%; P < .001) and proliferation indices (AS: 0.47 +/- 0.03; DegraPol: 0.28 +/- 0.04; P = .001). In both treatment groups, cell proliferation in the myometrium was increased (P < .05). CONCLUSION: Native AS seal iatrogenic fetal membrane defects better than DegraPol. Within a week, there is abundant reepithelilization and minimal local inflammation. This yields the proof of principle that engineered native, amniotic membrane scaffolds enhance fetal membrane wound healing response.
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We present a state-of-the-art application of smoothing for dependent bivariate binomial spatial data to Loa loa prevalence mapping in West Africa. This application is special because it starts with the non-spatial calibration of survey instruments, continues with the spatial model building and assessment and ends with robust, tested software that will be used by the field scientists of the World Health Organization for online prevalence map updating. From a statistical perspective several important methodological issues were addressed: (a) building spatial models that are complex enough to capture the structure of the data but remain computationally usable; (b)reducing the computational burden in the handling of very large covariate data sets; (c) devising methods for comparing spatial prediction methods for a given exceedance policy threshold.
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Detailed studies of pharmacodynamic principles relevant to the therapy of bacterial meningitis are difficult to perform in man, while the rabbit model of bacterial meningitis has proved to be extremely valuable and has led to insights that appear relevant for the treatment of humans. Most importantly in the light of the restricted penetration of antibiotics into the CSF, animal studies have shown that in meningitis there is a dose-response curve between the CSF concentrations achieved by antibiotics and their bactericidal activity. This appears to be true for all classes of antibiotics thus far examined, including the beta-lactams, which do not show such a dose-response behaviour in other infections. Only CSF concentrations that exceed the MBC of the infecting organism by at least 10-30-fold achieve consistent and rapid bactericidal activity. Such rapid bactericidal activity is a requirement for successful therapy with beta-lactams and can be impaired with certain antibiotics by the specific conditions in infected CSF (protein content; acidic pH; slow-growing bacteria). However, rapid antibiotic killing of the infecting organisms may not be without adverse effects either. Some antibiotics, particularly beta-lactams lead to the brisk liberation of bacterial cell wall components (e.g. endotoxin, in the case of Gram-negative organisms) which have an inflammatory effect on the host and can lead to a temporary deterioration of the disease. Dexamethasone, when administered with the antibiotic, can prevent some of the adverse effects of rapid bacterial lysis.
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BACKGROUND: Patients taking immunosuppressants after transplantation may require intestinal surgery. Mycophenolate mofetil (MMF) has been found to impair the healing of colonic anastomoses in rats. This study examined whether insulin-like growth factor (IGF) I prevents MMF impairment of anastomotic healing. METHODS: Sixty-three rats were divided into three groups (MMF, MMF/IGF and control). Animals underwent a sigmoid colon anastomosis with a 6/0 suture, and were killed on days 2, 4 and 6 after surgery. Investigations included bursting pressure measurement, morphometric analysis, and assessment of mucosal proliferation by 5-bromo-2'-deoxyuridine and Ki67 immunohistochemistry of the anastomoses. RESULTS: The leak rate was three of 21, one of 20 and two of 20 in the MMF, MMF/IGF-I and control groups respectively. Anastomotic bursting pressures were significantly lower in the MMF group than in the control group on days 2 and 4, but there was no significant difference by day 6. Values in the MMF/IGF-I and control groups were similar. Colonic crypt depth was significantly reduced in MMF-treated animals on days 2 and 4, but this impairment was attenuated by IGF-I on day 4. Similarly, IGF-I reduced the negative impact of MMF on mucosal proliferation on days 2 and 6. CONCLUSION: Exogenous IGF-I improves some aspects of MMF-impaired anastomotic healing.
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BACKGROUND: Decompressive laparotomy followed by temporary abdominal closure (TAC) is an established prophylaxis and treatment for abdominal compartment syndrome. The herein presented study aimed at the comparison of volume reserve capacity and development of intra-abdominal hypertension after forced primary abdominal closure and different TAC techniques in a porcine model. METHODS: Eight anesthesized and mechanically ventilated domestic pigs underwent a standardized midline laparotomy. A bag was placed into the abdominal cavity. Before abdominal closure, the bag was prefilled with 3,000 mL water to simulate increased intra-abdominal volume. The intra-abdominal pressure (IAP) was then increased in 2 mm Hg steps up to 30 mm Hg by adding volume (volume reserve capacity) to the intra-abdominal bag. Volume reserve capacity with the corresponding IAP were analyzed and compared for primary abdominal closure, bag silo closure, a zipper system, and vacuum-assisted closure (VAC) with different negative pressures (-50, -100, and -150 mm Hg). Hemodynamic and pulmonary parameters were monitored throughout the experiment. RESULTS: Volume reserve capacity was the highest for bag silo closure followed by the zipper system and VAC with primary abdominal closure providing the least volume reserve capacity in the whole IAP range. Of interest, VAC -50 mm Hg resulted in a lower volume reserve capacity when compared with VAC -100 and -150 mm Hg. Pulmonary and hemodynamic parameters demonstrated no significant differences between primary abdominal closure and the evaluated TAC techniques at all IAP levels. CONCLUSIONS: The present experimental in vivo study indicates that bag silo closure and zipper systems may be favorable TAC techniques after decompressive laparotomy. In contrast, the VAC techniques resulted in lower volume reserve capacity and therefore may bear an increased risk for recurrent intra-abdominal hypertension in the initial phase after decompressive laparotomy.