An evaluation of new parsimony-based versus parametric inference methods in biogeography: a case study using the globally distributed plant family Sapindaceae

Aim  Recently developed parametric methods in historical biogeography allow researchers to integrate temporal and palaeogeographical information into the reconstruction of biogeographical scenarios, thus overcoming a known bias of parsimony-based approaches. Here, we compare a parametric method, dispersal-extinction-cladogenesis (DEC), against a parsimony-based method, dispersal-vicariance analysis (DIVA), which does not incorporate branch lengths but accounts for phylogenetic uncertainty through a Bayesian empirical approach (Bayes-DIVA). We analyse the benefits and limitations of each method using the cosmopolitan plant family Sapindaceae as a case study.Location  World-wide.Methods  Phylogenetic relationships were estimated by Bayesian inference on a large dataset representing generic diversity within Sapindaceae. Lineage divergence times were estimated by penalized likelihood over a sample of trees from the posterior distribution of the phylogeny to account for dating uncertainty in biogeographical reconstructions. We compared biogeographical scenarios between Bayes-DIVA and two different DEC models: one with no geological constraints and another that employed a stratified palaeogeographical model in which dispersal rates were scaled according to area connectivity across four time slices, reflecting the changing continental configuration over the last 110 million years.Results  Despite differences in the underlying biogeographical model, Bayes-DIVA and DEC inferred similar biogeographical scenarios. The main differences were: (1) in the timing of dispersal events - which in Bayes-DIVA sometimes conflicts with palaeogeographical information, and (2) in the lower frequency of terminal dispersal events inferred by DEC. Uncertainty in divergence time estimations influenced both the inference of ancestral ranges and the decisiveness with which an area can be assigned to a node.Main conclusions  By considering lineage divergence times, the DEC method gives more accurate reconstructions that are in agreement with palaeogeographical evidence. In contrast, Bayes-DIVA showed the highest decisiveness in unequivocally reconstructing ancestral ranges, probably reflecting its ability to integrate phylogenetic uncertainty. Care should be taken in defining the palaeogeographical model in DEC because of the possibility of overestimating the frequency of extinction events, or of inferring ancestral ranges that are outside the extant species ranges, owing to dispersal constraints enforced by the model. The wide-spanning spatial and temporal model proposed here could prove useful for testing large-scale biogeographical patterns in plants.

Evaluation of adding a second marker to overcome Staphylococcus aureus spa typing homoplasies.

The utility of sequencing a second highly variable locus in addition to the spa gene (e.g., double-locus sequence typing [DLST]) was investigated to overcome limitations of a Staphylococcus aureus single-locus typing method. Although adding a second locus seemed to increase discriminatory power, it was not sufficient to definitively infer evolutionary relationships within a single multilocus sequence type (ST-5).

Substantial advantage of a combined Bayesian and genotyping approach in testosterone doping tests.

Testosterone abuse is conventionally assessed by the urinary testosterone/epitestosterone (T/E) ratio, levels above 4.0 being considered suspicious. A deletion polymorphism in the gene coding for UGT2B17 is strongly associated with reduced testosterone glucuronide (TG) levels in urine. Many of the individuals devoid of the gene would not reach a T/E ratio of 4.0 after testosterone intake. Future test programs will most likely shift from population based- to individual-based T/E cut-off ratios using Bayesian inference. A longitudinal analysis is dependent on an individual's true negative baseline T/E ratio. The aim was to investigate whether it is possible to increase the sensitivity and specificity of the T/E test by addition of UGT2B17 genotype information in a Bayesian framework. A single intramuscular dose of 500mg testosterone enanthate was given to 55 healthy male volunteers with either two, one or no allele (ins/ins, ins/del or del/del) of the UGT2B17 gene. Urinary excretion of TG and the T/E ratio was measured during 15 days. The Bayesian analysis was conducted to calculate the individual T/E cut-off ratio. When adding the genotype information, the program returned lower individual cut-off ratios in all del/del subjects increasing the sensitivity of the test considerably. It will be difficult, if not impossible, to discriminate between a true negative baseline T/E value and a false negative one without knowledge of the UGT2B17 genotype. UGT2B17 genotype information is crucial, both to decide which initial cut-off ratio to use for an individual, and for increasing the sensitivity of the Bayesian analysis.

Safety Effectiveness of High-Speed Expressway Signals, 2005

The safety benefit of signalizing intersections of high-speed divided expressways is considered. Analyses were conducted on 50 and 55 mph and on 55 mph only intersections, comparing unsignalized and signalized intersections. Results of the 55 mph analysis are included in this report. Matched-pair analysis indicates that generally, signalized intersections have higher crash rate but lower costs per crash. On the other hand, before-and-after analysis (intersections signalized between 1994 and 2001) indicates lower crash rates (~30 percent) and total costs (~10 percent) after signalization. Empirical Bayes (EB) adjusted before-and-after analysis reduces estimates of safety benefit (crash rate) to about 20 percent. The study shows how commonly used analyses can differ in their results, and that there is great variability in the safety performance of individual signalized locations. This variability and the effect of EB adjustment are demonstrated through the use of innovative graphics.

Processing of tumor-associated antigen by the proteasomes of dendritic cells controls in vivo T-cell responses.

Dendritic cells are unique in their capacity to process antigens and prime naive CD8(+) T cells. Contrary to most cells, which express the standard proteasomes, dendritic cells express immunoproteasomes constitutively. The melanoma-associated protein Melan-A(MART1) contains an HLA-A2-restricted peptide that is poorly processed by melanoma cells expressing immunoproteasomes in vitro. Here, we show that the expression of Melan-A in dendritic cells fails to elicit T-cell responses in vitro and in vivo because it is not processed by the proteasomes of dendritic cells. In contrast, dendritic cells lacking immunoproteasomes induce strong anti-Melan-A T-cell responses in vitro and in vivo. These results suggest that the inefficient processing of self-antigens, such as Melan-A, by the immunoproteasomes of professional antigen-presenting cells prevents the induction of antitumor T-cell responses in vivo.

T cell costimulation by the TNF ligand BAFF.

The TNF ligand family member BAFF (B cell activating factor belonging to the TNF family, also called Blys, TALL-1, zTNF-4, or THANK) is an important survival factor for B cells [corrected]. In this study, we show that BAFF is able to regulate T cell activation. rBAFF induced responses (thymidine incorporation and cytokine secretion) of T cells, suboptimally stimulated through their TCR. BAFF activity was observed on naive, as well as on effector/memory T cells (both CD4+ and CD8+ subsets), indicating that BAFF has a wide function on T cell responses. Analysis of the signal transduced by BAFF into T cells shows that BAFF has no obvious effect on T cell survival upon activation, but is able to deliver a complete costimulation signal into T cells. Indeed, BAFF is sufficient to induce IL-2 secretion and T cell division, when added to an anti-TCR stimulation. This highlights some differences in the BAFF signaling pathway in T and B cells. In conclusion, our results indicate that BAFF may play a role in the development of T cell responses, in addition to its role in B cell homeostasis.

Estimating the basic reproductive number from viral sequence data.

Epidemiological processes leave a fingerprint in the pattern of genetic structure of virus populations. Here, we provide a new method to infer epidemiological parameters directly from viral sequence data. The method is based on phylogenetic analysis using a birth-death model (BDM) rather than the commonly used coalescent as the model for the epidemiological transmission of the pathogen. Using the BDM has the advantage that transmission and death rates are estimated independently and therefore enables for the first time the estimation of the basic reproductive number of the pathogen using only sequence data, without further assumptions like the average duration of infection. We apply the method to genetic data of the HIV-1 epidemic in Switzerland.

Does Reasoning Enhance Learning?

Utilizing the well-known Ultimatum Game, this note presents the following phenomenon. If we start with simple stimulus-response agents, learning through naive reinforcement, and then grant them some introspective capabilities, we get outcomes that are not closer but farther away from the fully introspective game-theoretic approach. The cause of this is the following: there is an asymmetry in the information that agents can deduce from their experience, and this leads to a bias in their learning process.

Scalable inference of heterogeneous reaction kinetics from pooled single-cell recordings.

Mathematical methods combined with measurements of single-cell dynamics provide a means to reconstruct intracellular processes that are only partly or indirectly accessible experimentally. To obtain reliable reconstructions, the pooling of measurements from several cells of a clonal population is mandatory. However, cell-to-cell variability originating from diverse sources poses computational challenges for such process reconstruction. We introduce a scalable Bayesian inference framework that properly accounts for population heterogeneity. The method allows inference of inaccessible molecular states and kinetic parameters; computation of Bayes factors for model selection; and dissection of intrinsic, extrinsic and technical noise. We show how additional single-cell readouts such as morphological features can be included in the analysis. We use the method to reconstruct the expression dynamics of a gene under an inducible promoter in yeast from time-lapse microscopy data.

Appropriateness of early management of newly diagnosed Crohn's disease in a European population-based cohort.

OBJECTIVE: The European Panel on the Appropriateness of Crohn's disease Therapy (EPACT) has developed appropriateness criteria. We have applied these criteria retrospectively to the population-based inception cohort of Crohn's disease (CD) patients of the European Collaborative Study Group on Inflammatory Bowel Disease (EC-IBD). MATERIAL AND METHODS: A total of 426 diagnosed CD patients from 13 European centers were enrolled at the time of diagnosis (first flare, naive patients). We used the EPACT definitions to identify 247 patients with active luminal CD. We then assessed the appropriateness of the initial drug prescription according to the EPACT criteria. RESULTS: Among the cohort patients 163 suffered from mild-to-moderate CD and 84 from severe CD. Among the mild-to-moderate disease group, 96 patients (59%) received an appropriate treatment, whereas for 66 patients (40%) the treatment was uncertain and in one case (1%) inappropriate. Among the severe disease group, 86% were treated medically and 14% required surgery. 59 (70%) were appropriately treated, whereas for one patient (1%) the procedure was considered uncertain and for 24 patients (29%) inappropriate. CONCLUSION: Initial treatment was appropriate in the majority of cases for non-complicated luminal CD. Inappropriate or uncertain treatment was given in a significant minority of patients, with an increased potential risk of adverse events.

Probing the T-cell receptor repertoire with deep sequencing.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: To review major findings on the T-cell receptor (TCR) repertoire diversity in response to several viral infections based on conventional methods of PCR, cloning and sequencing and to discuss their limitations in light of the recent methodological advances in deep sequencing.¦RECENT FINDINGS: Direct sequencing of TCR expressed by Ag-specific T cells isolated ex vivo has revealed that the TCR repertoire is not as restricted as previously estimated. Furthermore, analyses performed independently of the T-cell clonal hierarchy have brought to light an unexpected diversity. The choice of methods is critical to characterize the complexity of the repertoire. Recent advances in deep sequencing have uncovered the diversity of the TCR repertoire and shown that the size of the repertoire in naive and Ag-experienced memory T cells is three-fold to 15-fold larger than formerly estimated. Interestingly, the TCR complementary determining region 3 sequences are not randomly selected and a certain degree of shared TCR repertoire has been observed between different individuals.¦SUMMARY: Deep sequencing is a major methodological advance allowing more accurate molecular characterization of the TCR repertoire. In the near future, such technologies will further contribute to delineate the complexity of pathogen-specific T-cell response and help defining correlates of a protective immunity.

Reducing the clinical burden of ranibizumab treatment for neovascular age-related macular degeneration using an individually planned regimen.

AIMS: The purpose of this study was to clinically validate an individually planned treatment regimen for neovascular age-related macular degeneration (nAMD), termed, observe and plan. This regimen was based on the predictability of an individual's need for retreatment and aimed to reduce the clinical burden, while obtaining good functional results. METHODS: This was a prospective case series that included 104 patients (115 eyes) with treatment-naive nAMD. Following three loading doses of ranibizumab, monthly observation visits allowed the disease recurrence interval to be determined. The recurrence interval was reduced by 2 weeks to give the retreatment interval for the next three injections. Periodical control visits (at least every 6 months) allowed the effectiveness of the treatment to be assessed and individual intervals adjusted. RESULTS: Mean visual acuity (VA) improved by 8.7 and 9.8 letters in months 3 and 12, respectively. The mean number of injections during the 12-month study was 7.8, while the mean number of ophthalmic examinations between months 3 and 12 was 3.97. The mean treatment interval after the loading doses was 1.97 months. CONCLUSIONS: The observe-and-plan regimen significantly improved VA. This was obtained with fewer clinic visits compared with other regimens, which could ease the burden of nAMD treatment. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: Commission cantonale (VD) d'éthique de la recherché Clinique, Université de Lausanne, Protocole 351/11.

A species delimitation approach in the Trochulus sericeus/hispidus complex reveals two cryptic species within a sharp contact zone.

BACKGROUND: Mitochondrial DNA sequencing increasingly results in the recognition of genetically divergent, but morphologically cryptic lineages. Species delimitation approaches that rely on multiple lines of evidence in areas of co-occurrence are particularly powerful to infer their specific status. We investigated the species boundaries of two cryptic lineages of the land snail genus Trochulus in a contact zone, using mitochondrial and nuclear DNA marker as well as shell morphometrics. RESULTS: Both mitochondrial lineages have a distinct geographical distribution with a small zone of co-occurrence. In the same area, we detected two nuclear genotype clusters, each being highly significantly associated to one mitochondrial lineage. This association however had exceptions: a small number of individuals in the contact zone showed intermediate genotypes (4%) or cytonuclear disequilibrium (12%). Both mitochondrial lineage and nuclear cluster were statistically significant predictors for the shell shape indicating morphological divergence. Nevertheless, the lineage morphospaces largely overlapped (low posterior classification success rate of 69% and 78%, respectively): the two lineages are truly cryptic. CONCLUSION: The integrative approach using multiple lines of evidence supported the hypothesis that the investigated Trochulus lineages are reproductively isolated species. In the small contact area, however, the lineages hybridise to a limited extent. This detection of a hybrid zone adds an instance to the rare reported cases of hybridisation in land snails.

Strategies for sequential prediction of stationary time series

We present simple procedures for the prediction of a real valued sequence. The algorithms are based on a combinationof several simple predictors. We show that if the sequence is a realization of a bounded stationary and ergodic random process then the average of squared errors converges, almost surely, to that of the optimum, given by the Bayes predictor. We offer an analog result for the prediction of stationary gaussian processes.

The credit ratings game

The spectacular failure of top-rated structured finance products has broughtrenewed attention to the conflicts of interest of Credit Rating Agencies (CRAs). We modelboth the CRA conflict of understating credit risk to attract more business, and the issuerconflict of purchasing only the most favorable ratings (issuer shopping), and examine theeffectiveness of a number of proposed regulatory solutions of CRAs. We find that CRAs aremore prone to inflate ratings when there is a larger fraction of naive investors in the marketwho take ratings at face value, or when CRA expected reputation costs are lower. To theextent that in booms the fraction of naive investors is higher, and the reputation risk forCRAs of getting caught understating credit risk is lower, our model predicts that CRAs aremore likely to understate credit risk in booms than in recessions. We also show that, due toissuer shopping, competition among CRAs in a duopoly is less efficient (conditional on thesame equilibrium CRA rating policy) than having a monopoly CRA, in terms of both totalex-ante surplus and investor surplus. Allowing tranching decreases total surplus further.We argue that regulatory intervention requiring upfront payments for rating services (beforeCRAs propose a rating to the issuer) combined with mandatory disclosure of any ratingproduced by CRAs can substantially mitigate the con.icts of interest of both CRAs andissuers.