Intelligent reliability analysis with incomplete covariates

The reliability analysis is crucial to reducing unexpected down time, severe failures and ever tightened maintenance budget of engineering assets. Hazard based reliability methods are of particular interest as hazard reflects the current health status of engineering assets and their imminent failure risks. Most existing hazard models were constructed using the statistical methods. However, these methods were established largely based on two assumptions: one is the assumption of baseline failure distributions being accurate to the population concerned and the other is the assumption of effects of covariates on hazards. These two assumptions may be difficult to achieve and therefore compromise the effectiveness of hazard models in the application. To address this issue, a non-linear hazard modelling approach is developed in this research using neural networks (NNs), resulting in neural network hazard models (NNHMs), to deal with limitations due to the two assumptions for statistical models. With the success of failure prevention effort, less failure history becomes available for reliability analysis. Involving condition data or covariates is a natural solution to this challenge. A critical issue for involving covariates in reliability analysis is that complete and consistent covariate data are often unavailable in reality due to inconsistent measuring frequencies of multiple covariates, sensor failure, and sparse intrusive measurements. This problem has not been studied adequately in current reliability applications. This research thus investigates such incomplete covariates problem in reliability analysis. Typical approaches to handling incomplete covariates have been studied to investigate their performance and effects on the reliability analysis results. Since these existing approaches could underestimate the variance in regressions and introduce extra uncertainties to reliability analysis, the developed NNHMs are extended to include handling incomplete covariates as an integral part. The extended versions of NNHMs have been validated using simulated bearing data and real data from a liquefied natural gas pump. The results demonstrate the new approach outperforms the typical incomplete covariates handling approaches. Another problem in reliability analysis is that future covariates of engineering assets are generally unavailable. In existing practices for multi-step reliability analysis, historical covariates were used to estimate the future covariates. Covariates of engineering assets, however, are often subject to substantial fluctuation due to the influence of both engineering degradation and changes in environmental settings. The commonly used covariate extrapolation methods thus would not be suitable because of the error accumulation and uncertainty propagation. To overcome this difficulty, instead of directly extrapolating covariate values, projection of covariate states is conducted in this research. The estimated covariate states and unknown covariate values in future running steps of assets constitute an incomplete covariate set which is then analysed by the extended NNHMs. A new assessment function is also proposed to evaluate risks of underestimated and overestimated reliability analysis results. A case study using field data from a paper and pulp mill has been conducted and it demonstrates that this new multi-step reliability analysis procedure is able to generate more accurate analysis results.

Behavioral evaluation of eight rat lines selected for high and low anxiety-related responses

Anxiety traits can be stable and permanent characteristics of an individual across time that is less susceptible of influences by a particular situation. One way to study trait anxiety in an experimental context is through the use of rat lines, selected according to contrasting phenotypes of fear and anxiety. It is not clear whether the behavioral differences between two contrasting rat lines in one given anxiety test are also present in others paradigms of state anxiety. Here, we examine the extent to which multiple anxiety traits generalize across selected animal lines originally selected for a single anxiety trait. We review the behavioral results available in the literature of eight rat genetic models of trait anxiety - namely Maudsley Reactive and Non-reactive rats, Floripa H and L rats, Tsukuba High and Low Emotional rats, High and Low Anxiety-related rats, High and Low Ultrasonic Vocalization rats, Roman High and Low Avoidance rats, Syracuse High and Low Avoidance rats, and Carioca High and Low Conditioned Freezing rats - across 11 behavioral paradigms of innate anxiety or aversive learning frequently used in the experimental setting. We observed both convergence and divergence of behavioral responses in these selected lines across the 11 paradigms. We find that predisposition for specific anxiety traits will usually be generalized to other anxiety provoking stimuli. However this generalization is not observed across all genetic models indicating some unique trait and state interactions. Genetic models of enhanced-anxiety related responses are beginning to help define how anxiety can manifest differently depending on the underlying traits and the current environmentally induced state.

Design, implementation and multisite evaluation of a system suitability protocol for the quantitative assessment of instrument performance in liquid chromatography-multiple reaction monitoring-MS (LC-MRM-MS)

Multiple reaction monitoring (MRM) mass spectrometry coupled with stable isotope dilution (SID) and liquid chromatography (LC) is increasingly used in biological and clinical studies for precise and reproducible quantification of peptides and proteins in complex sample matrices. Robust LC-SID-MRM-MS-based assays that can be replicated across laboratories and ultimately in clinical laboratory settings require standardized protocols to demonstrate that the analysis platforms are performing adequately. We developed a system suitability protocol (SSP), which employs a predigested mixture of six proteins, to facilitate performance evaluation of LC-SID-MRM-MS instrument platforms, configured with nanoflow-LC systems interfaced to triple quadrupole mass spectrometers. The SSP was designed for use with low multiplex analyses as well as high multiplex approaches when software-driven scheduling of data acquisition is required. Performance was assessed by monitoring of a range of chromatographic and mass spectrometric metrics including peak width, chromatographic resolution, peak capacity, and the variability in peak area and analyte retention time (RT) stability. The SSP, which was evaluated in 11 laboratories on a total of 15 different instruments, enabled early diagnoses of LC and MS anomalies that indicated suboptimal LC-MRM-MS performance. The observed range in variation of each of the metrics scrutinized serves to define the criteria for optimized LC-SID-MRM-MS platforms for routine use, with pass/fail criteria for system suitability performance measures defined as peak area coefficient of variation <0.15, peak width coefficient of variation <0.15, standard deviation of RT <0.15 min (9 s), and the RT drift <0.5min (30 s). The deleterious effect of a marginally performing LC-SID-MRM-MS system on the limit of quantification (LOQ) in targeted quantitative assays illustrates the use and need for a SSP to establish robust and reliable system performance. Use of a SSP helps to ensure that analyte quantification measurements can be replicated with good precision within and across multiple laboratories and should facilitate more widespread use of MRM-MS technology by the basic biomedical and clinical laboratory research communities.

Tools for Mobile Multimedia Programming and Development

Mobile devices are rapidly developing into the primary technology for users to work, socialize, and play in a variety of settings and contexts. Their pervasiveness has provided researchers with the means to investigate innovative solutions to ever more complex user demands. Tools for Mobile Multimedia Programming and Development investigates the use of mobile platforms for research projects, focusing on the development, testing, and evaluation of prototypes rather than final products, which enables researchers to better understand the needs of users through image processing, object recognition, sensor integration, and user interactions. This book benefits researchers and professionals in multiple disciplines who utilize such techniques in the creation of prototypes for mobile devices and applications. This book is part of the Advances in Wireless Technologies and Telecommunication series collection.

Liability in negligence and the failure to disclose multiple risks in surgery : I would have been willing to run the risk

It has been 21 years since the decision in Rogers v Whitaker and the legal principles concerning informed consent and liability for negligence are still strongly grounded in this landmark High Court decision. This paper considers more recent developments in the law concerning the failure to disclose inherent risks in medical procedures, focusing on the decision in Wallace v Kam [2013] HCA 19. In this case, the appellant underwent a surgical procedure that carried a number of risks. The surgery itself was not performed in a sub-standard way, but the surgeon failed to disclose two risks to the patient, a failure that constituted a breach of the surgeon’s duty of care in negligence. One of the undisclosed risks was considered to be less serious than the other, and this lesser risk eventuated causing injury to the appellant. The more serious risk did not eventuate, but the appellant argued that if the more serious risk had been disclosed, he would have avoided his injuries completely because he would have refused to undergo the procedure. Liability was disputed by the surgeon, with particular reference to causation principles. The High Court of Australia held that the appellant should not be compensated for harm that resulted from a risk he would have been willing to run. We examine the policy reasons underpinning the law of negligence in this specific context and consider some of the issues raised by this unusual case. We question whether some of the judicial reasoning adopted in this case, represents a significant shift in traditional causation principles.

Paracrine interactions between LNCaP prostate cancer cells and bioengineered bone in 3D in vitro culture reflect molecular changes during bone metastasis

As microenvironmental factors such as three-dimensionality and cell–matrix interactions are increasingly being acknowledged by cancer biologists, more complex 3D in vitro models are being developed to study tumorigenesis and cancer progression. To better understand the pathophysiology of bone metastasis, we have established and validated a 3D indirect co-culture model to investigate the paracrine interactions between prostate cancer (PCa) cells and human osteoblasts. Co-culture of the human PCa, LNCaP cells embedded within polyethylene glycol hydrogels with human osteoblasts in the form of a tissue engineered bone construct (TEB), resulted in reduced proliferation of LNCaP cells. LNCaP cells in both monoculture and co-culture were responsive to the androgen analog, R1881, as indicated by an increase in the expression (mRNA and/or protein induction) of androgen-regulated genes including prostate specific antigen and fatty acid synthase. Microarray gene expression analysis further revealed an up-regulation of bone markers and other genes associated with skeletal and vasculature development and a significant activation of transforming growth factor β1 downstream genes in LNCaP cells after co-culture with TEB. LNCaP cells co-cultured with TEB also unexpectedly showed similar changes in classical androgen-responsive genes under androgen-deprived conditions not seen in LNCaP monocultures. The molecular changes of LNCaP cells after co-culturing with TEBs suggest that osteoblasts exert a paracrine effect that may promote osteomimicry and modulate the expression of androgen-responsive genes in LNCaP cells. Taken together, we have presented a novel 3D in vitro model that allows the study of cellular and molecular changes occurring in PCa cells and osteoblasts that are relevant to metastatic colonization of bone. This unique in vitro model could also facilitate cancer biologists to dissect specific biological hypotheses via extensive genomic or proteomic assessments to further our understanding of the PCa-bone crosstalk.

Modelling the water, energy and economic nexus

The mining industry faces three long term strategic risks in relation to its water and energy use: 1) securing enough water and energy to meet increased production; 2) reducing water use, energy consumption and emissions due to social, environmental and economic pressures; and 3) understanding the links between water and energy, so that an improvement in one area does not create an adverse effect in another. This project helps the industry analyse these risks by creating a hierarchical systems model (HSM) that represents the water and energy interactions on a sub-site, site and regional scales; which is coupled with a flexible risk framework. The HSM consists of: components that represent sources of water and energy; activities that use water and energy and off-site destinations of water and produced emissions. It can also represent more complex components on a site, with inbuilt examples including tailings dams and water treatment plants. The HSM also allows multiple sites and other infrastructure to be connected together to explore regional water and energy interactions. By representing water and energy as a single interconnected system the HSM can explore tradeoffs and synergies. For example, on a synthetic case study, which represents a typical site, simulations suggested that while a synergy in terms of water use and energy use could be made when chemical additives were used to enhance dust suppression, there were trade-offs when either thickened tailings or dry processing were used. On a regional scale, the HSM was used to simulate various scenarios, including: mines only withdrawing water when needed; achieving economics-of-scale through use of a single centralised treatment plant rather than smaller decentralised treatment plants; and capturing of fugitive emissions for energy generation. The HSM also includes an integrated risk framework for interpreting model output, so that onsite and off-site impacts of various water and energy management strategies can be compared in a managerial context. The case studies in this report explored company, social and environmental risks for scenarios of regional water scarcity, unregulated saline discharge, and the use of plantation forestry to offset carbon emissions. The HSM was able to represent the non-linear causal relationship at the regional scale, such as the forestry scheme offsetting a small percentage of carbon emissions but causing severe regional water shortages. The HSM software developed in this project will be released as an open source tool to allow industry personnel to easily and inexpensively quantify and explore the links between water use, energy use, and carbon emissions. The tool can be easily adapted to represent specific sites or regions. Case studies conducted in this project highlighted the potential complexity of these links between water, energy, and carbon emissions, as well as the significance of the cumulative effects of these links over time. A deeper understanding of these links is vital for the mining industry in order to progress to more sustainable operations, and the HSM provides an accessible, robust framework for investigating these links.

Complexity and high-end computing in biology and medicine

Biomedical systems involve a large number of entities and intricate interactions between these. Their direct analysis is, therefore, difficult, and it is often necessary to rely on computational models. These models require significant resources and parallel computing solutions. These approaches are particularly suited, given parallel aspects in the nature of biomedical systems. Model hybridisation also permits the integration and simultaneous study of multiple aspects and scales of these systems, thus providing an efficient platform for multidisciplinary research.

QTL mapping of multiple foliar disease and root-lesion nematode resistances in wheat.

A genetic linkage map, based on a cross between the synthetic hexaploid CPI133872 and the bread wheat cultivar Janz, was established using 111 F1-derived doubled haploid lines. The population was phenotyped in multiple years and/or locations for seven disease resistance traits, namely, Septoria tritici blotch (Mycosphaeralla graminicola), yellow leaf spot also known as tan spot (Pyrenophora tritici-repentis), stripe rust (Puccinia striiformis f. sp. tritici), leaf rust (Puccinia triticina), stem rust (Puccinia graminis f. sp. tritici) and two species of root-lesion nematode (Pratylenchyus thornei and P. neglectus). The DH population was also scored for coleoptile colour and the presence of the seedling leaf rust resistance gene Lr24. Implementation of a multiple-QTL model identified a tightly linked cluster of foliar disease resistance QTL in chromosome 3DL. Major QTL each for resistance to Septoria tritici blotch and yellow leaf spot were contributed by the synthetic hexaploid parent CPI133872 and linked in repulsion with the coincident Lr24Sr24/ locus carried by parent Janz. This is the first report of linked QTL for Septoria tritici blotch and yellow leaf spot contributed by the same parent. Additional QTL for yellow leaf spot were detected in 5AS and 5BL. Consistent QTL for stripe rust resistance were identified in chromosomes 1BL, 4BL and 7DS, with the QTL in 7DS corresponding to the Yr18Lr34/ region. Three major QTL for P. thornei resistance (2BS, 6DS, 6DL) and two for P. neglectus resistance (2BS, 6DS) were detected. The recombinants combining resistance to Septoria tritici blotch, yellow leaf spot, rust diseases and root-lesion nematodes from parents CPI133872 and Janz constitute valuable germplasm for the transfer of multiple disease resistance into new wheat cultivars.

Genome-wide linkage analysis of multiple measures of neuroticism of 2 large cohorts from Australia and the Netherlands

CONTEXT People meeting diagnostic criteria for anxiety or depressive disorders tend to score high on the personality scale of neuroticism. Studying this personality dimension can give insights into the etiology of these important psychiatric disorders. OBJECTIVES To undertake a comprehensive genome-wide linkage study of neuroticism using large study samples that have been measured multiple times and to compare the results between countries for replication and across time within countries for consistency. DESIGN Genome-wide linkage scan. SETTING Twin individuals and their family members from Australia and the Netherlands. PARTICIPANTS Nineteen thousand six hundred thirty-five sibling pairs completed self-report questionnaires for neuroticism up to 5 times over a period of up to 22 years. Five thousand sixty-nine sibling pairs were genotyped with microsatellite markers. METHODS Nonparametric linkage analyses were conducted in MERLIN-REGRESS for the mean neuroticism scores averaged across time. Additional analyses were conducted for the time-specific measures of neuroticism from each country to investigate consistency of linkage results. RESULTS Three chromosomal regions exceeded empirically derived thresholds for suggestive linkage using mean neuroticism scores: 10p 5 Kosambi cM (cM) (Dutch study sample), 14q 103 cM (Dutch study sample), and 18q 117 cM (combined Australian and Dutch study sample), but only 14q retained significance after correction for multiple testing. These regions all showed evidence for linkage in individual time-specific measures of neuroticism and 1 (18q) showed some evidence for replication between countries. Linkage intervals for these regions all overlap with regions identified in other studies of neuroticism or related traits and/or in studies of anxiety in mice. CONCLUSIONS Our results demonstrate the value of the availability of multiple measures over time and add to the optimism reported in recent reviews for replication of linkage regions for neuroticism. These regions are likely to harbor causal variants for neuroticism and its related psychiatric disorders and can inform prioritization of results from genome-wide association studies.

Projecting future expansion of invasive species: Comparing and improving methodologies for species distribution modeling

Modeling the distributions of species, especially of invasive species in non-native ranges, involves multiple challenges. Here, we developed some novel approaches to species distribution modeling aimed at reducing the influences of such challenges and improving the realism of projections. We estimated species-environment relationships with four modeling methods run with multiple scenarios of (1) sources of occurrences and geographically isolated background ranges for absences, (2) approaches to drawing background (absence) points, and (3) alternate sets of predictor variables. We further tested various quantitative metrics of model evaluation against biological insight. Model projections were very sensitive to the choice of training dataset. Model accuracy was much improved by using a global dataset for model training, rather than restricting data input to the species’ native range. AUC score was a poor metric for model evaluation and, if used alone, was not a useful criterion for assessing model performance. Projections away from the sampled space (i.e. into areas of potential future invasion) were very different depending on the modeling methods used, raising questions about the reliability of ensemble projections. Generalized linear models gave very unrealistic projections far away from the training region. Models that efficiently fit the dominant pattern, but exclude highly local patterns in the dataset and capture interactions as they appear in data (e.g. boosted regression trees), improved generalization of the models. Biological knowledge of the species and its distribution was important in refining choices about the best set of projections. A post-hoc test conducted on a new Partenium dataset from Nepal validated excellent predictive performance of our “best” model. We showed that vast stretches of currently uninvaded geographic areas on multiple continents harbor highly suitable habitats for Parthenium hysterophorus L. (Asteraceae; parthenium). However, discrepancies between model predictions and parthenium invasion in Australia indicate successful management for this globally significant weed. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Projecting future expansion of invasive species: Comparing and improving methodologies for species distribution modeling

Modeling the distributions of species, especially of invasive species in non-native ranges, involves multiple challenges. Here, we developed some novel approaches to species distribution modeling aimed at reducing the influences of such challenges and improving the realism of projections. We estimated species-environment relationships with four modeling methods run with multiple scenarios of (1) sources of occurrences and geographically isolated background ranges for absences, (2) approaches to drawing background (absence) points, and (3) alternate sets of predictor variables. We further tested various quantitative metrics of model evaluation against biological insight. Model projections were very sensitive to the choice of training dataset. Model accuracy was much improved by using a global dataset for model training, rather than restricting data input to the species’ native range. AUC score was a poor metric for model evaluation and, if used alone, was not a useful criterion for assessing model performance. Projections away from the sampled space (i.e. into areas of potential future invasion) were very different depending on the modeling methods used, raising questions about the reliability of ensemble projections. Generalized linear models gave very unrealistic projections far away from the training region. Models that efficiently fit the dominant pattern, but exclude highly local patterns in the dataset and capture interactions as they appear in data (e.g. boosted regression trees), improved generalization of the models. Biological knowledge of the species and its distribution was important in refining choices about the best set of projections. A post-hoc test conducted on a new Partenium dataset from Nepal validated excellent predictive performance of our “best” model. We showed that vast stretches of currently uninvaded geographic areas on multiple continents harbor highly suitable habitats for Parthenium hysterophorus L. (Asteraceae; parthenium). However, discrepancies between model predictions and parthenium invasion in Australia indicate successful management for this globally significant weed. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Conceptual and statistical modelling of environmental effects in population dynamics

Population dynamics are generally viewed as the result of intrinsic (purely density dependent) and extrinsic (environmental) processes. Both components, and potential interactions between those two, have to be modelled in order to understand and predict dynamics of natural populations; a topic that is of great importance in population management and conservation. This thesis focuses on modelling environmental effects in population dynamics and how effects of potentially relevant environmental variables can be statistically identified and quantified from time series data. Chapter I presents some useful models of multiplicative environmental effects for unstructured density dependent populations. The presented models can be written as standard multiple regression models that are easy to fit to data. Chapters II IV constitute empirical studies that statistically model environmental effects on population dynamics of several migratory bird species with different life history characteristics and migration strategies. In Chapter II, spruce cone crops are found to have a strong positive effect on the population growth of the great spotted woodpecker (Dendrocopos major), while cone crops of pine another important food resource for the species do not effectively explain population growth. The study compares rate- and ratio-dependent effects of cone availability, using state-space models that distinguish between process and observation error in the time series data. Chapter III shows how drought, in combination with settling behaviour during migration, produces asymmetric spatially synchronous patterns of population dynamics in North American ducks (genus Anas). Chapter IV investigates the dynamics of a Finnish population of skylark (Alauda arvensis), and point out effects of rainfall and habitat quality on population growth. Because the skylark time series and some of the environmental variables included show strong positive autocorrelation, the statistical significances are calculated using a Monte Carlo method, where random autocorrelated time series are generated. Chapter V is a simulation-based study, showing that ignoring observation error in analyses of population time series data can bias the estimated effects and measures of uncertainty, if the environmental variables are autocorrelated. It is concluded that the use of state-space models is an effective way to reach more accurate results. In summary, there are several biological assumptions and methodological issues that can affect the inferential outcome when estimating environmental effects from time series data, and that therefore need special attention. The functional form of the environmental effects and potential interactions between environment and population density are important to deal with. Other issues that should be considered are assumptions about density dependent regulation, modelling potential observation error, and when needed, accounting for spatial and/or temporal autocorrelation.

Interactions and turnover of the muscular dystrophy protein myotilin

The striated muscle sarcomere is a force generating and transducing unit as well as an important sensor of extracellular cues and a coordinator of cellular signals. The borders of individual sarcomeres are formed by the Z-disks. The Z-disk component myotilin interacts with Z-disk core structural proteins and with regulators of signaling cascades. Missense mutations in the gene encoding myotilin cause dominantly inherited muscle disorders, myotilinopathies, by an unknown mechanism. In this thesis the functions of myotilin were further characterized to clarify the molecular biological basis and the pathogenetic mechanisms of inherited muscle disorders, mainly caused by mutated myotilin. Myotilin has an important function in the assembly and maintenance of the Z-disks probably through its actin-organizing properties. Our results show that the Ig-domains of myotilin are needed for both binding and bundling actin and define the Ig domains as actin-binding modules. The disease-causing mutations appear not to change the interplay between actin and myotilin. Interactions between Z-disk proteins regulate muscle functions and disruption of these interactions results in muscle disorders. Mutations in Z-disk components myotilin, ZASP/Cypher and FATZ-2 (calsarcin-1/myozenin-2) are associated with myopathies. We showed that proteins from the myotilin and FATZ families interact via a novel and unique type of class III PDZ binding motif with the PDZ domains of ZASP and other Enigma family members and that the interactions can be modulated by phosphorylation. The morphological findings typical of myotilinopathies include Z-disk alterations and aggregation of dense filamentous material. The causes and mechanisms of protein aggregation in myotilinopathy patients are unknown, but impaired degradation might explain in part the abnormal protein accumulation. We showed that myotilin is degraded by the calcium-dependent, non-lysosomal cysteine protease calpain and by the proteasome pathway, and that wild type and mutant myotilin differ in their sensitivity to degradation. These studies identify the first functional difference between mutated and wild type myotilin. Furthermore, if degradation of myotilin is disturbed, it accumulates in cells in a manner resembling that seen in myotilinopathy patients. Based on the results, we propose a model where mutant myotilin escapes proteolytic breakdown and forms protein aggregates, leading to disruption of myofibrils and muscular dystrophy. In conclusion, the main results of this study demonstrate that myotilin is a Z-disk structural protein interacting with several Z-disk components. The turnover of myotilin is regulated by calpain and the ubiquitin proteasome system and mutations in myotilin seem to affect the degradation of myotilin, leading to protein accumulations in cells. These findings are important for understanding myotilin-linked muscle diseases and designing treatments for these disorders.

Competing magnetic interactions in a dinuclear Ni(II) complex: Antiferromagnetic O-H center dot center dot center dot O moiety and ferromagnetic N-3(-) ligand

Synthesis, structural characteristics, magnetic studies and DFT calculations in Ni(II) dinuclear complexes containing two bridging N-3(-) and an O-(HO)-O-... linkage reveal the existence of ferromagnetic interactions between Ni(II) centers via N-3(-) ligands and antiferromagnetic interactions through the H-bonded moiety. The overall magnetic behavior of the system depends on the delicate balance between these two competing interactions.