A influência dos parâmetros nas estimativas VAR: caso prático

Dissertação de Mestrado em Finanças Empresariais

Virtual power producers integration into MASCEM

All over the world Distributed Generation is seen as a valuable help to get cleaner and more efficient electricity. Under this context distributed generators, owned by different decentralized players can provide a significant amount of the electricity generation. To get negotiation power and advantages of scale economy, these players can be aggregated giving place to a new concept: the Virtual Power Producer. Virtual Power Producers are multi-technology and multi-site heterogeneous entities. Virtual Power Producers should adopt organization and management methodologies so that they can make Distributed Generation a really profitable activity, able to participate in the market. In this paper we address the integration of Virtual Power Producers into an electricity market simulator –MASCEM – as a coalition of distributed producers.

Real-time energy resources scheduling considering intensive wind penetration

The use of distributed energy resources, based on natural intermittent power sources, like wind generation, in power systems imposes the development of new adequate operation management and control methodologies. A short-term Energy Resource Management (ERM) methodology performed in two phases is proposed in this paper. The first one addresses the day-ahead ERM scheduling and the second one deals with the five-minute ahead ERM scheduling. The ERM scheduling is a complex optimization problem due to the high quantity of variables and constraints. In this paper the main goal is to minimize the operation costs from the point of view of a virtual power player that manages the network and the existing resources. The optimization problem is solved by a deterministic mixedinteger non-linear programming approach. A case study considering a distribution network with 33 bus, 66 distributed generation, 32 loads with demand response contracts and 7 storage units and 1000 electric vehicles has been implemented in a simulator developed in the field of the presented work, in order to validate the proposed short-term ERM methodology considering the dynamic power system behavior.

ANN-Based LMP forecasting in a distribution network with large penetration of DG

In recent years, power systems have experienced many changes in their paradigm. The introduction of new players in the management of distributed generation leads to the decentralization of control and decision-making, so that each player is able to play in the market environment. In the new context, it will be very relevant that aggregator players allow midsize, small and micro players to act in a competitive environment. In order to achieve their objectives, virtual power players and single players are required to optimize their energy resource management process. To achieve this, it is essential to have financial resources capable of providing access to appropriate decision support tools. As small players have difficulties in having access to such tools, it is necessary that these players can benefit from alternative methodologies to support their decisions. This paper presents a methodology, based on Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), and intended to support smaller players. In this case the present methodology uses a training set that is created using energy resource scheduling solutions obtained using a mixed-integer linear programming (MIP) approach as the reference optimization methodology. The trained network is used to obtain locational marginal prices in a distribution network. The main goal of the paper is to verify the accuracy of the ANN based approach. Moreover, the use of a single ANN is compared with the use of two or more ANN to forecast the locational marginal price.

QSAR modeling of antitubercular activity of diverse organic compounds

Tuberculosis (TB) is a worldwide infectious disease that has shown over time extremely high mortality levels. The urgent need to develop new antitubercular drugs is due to the increasing rate of appearance of multi-drug resistant strains to the commonly used drugs, and the longer durations of therapy and recovery, particularly in immuno-compromised patients. The major goal of the present study is the exploration of data from different families of compounds through the use of a variety of machine learning techniques so that robust QSAR-based models can be developed to further guide in the quest for new potent anti-TB compounds. Eight QSAR models were built using various types of descriptors (from ADRIANA.Code and Dragon software) with two publicly available structurally diverse data sets, including recent data deposited in PubChem. QSAR methodologies used Random Forests and Associative Neural Networks. Predictions for the external evaluation sets obtained accuracies in the range of 0.76-0.88 (for active/inactive classifications) and Q(2)=0.66-0.89 for regressions. Models developed in this study can be used to estimate the anti-TB activity of drug candidates at early stages of drug development (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Remuneration and tariffs in the context of virtual power players

Power systems have been through deep changes in recent years, namely with the operation of competitive electricity markets in the scope and the increasingly intensive use of renewable energy sources and distributed generation. This requires new business models able to cope with the new opportunities that have emerged. Virtual Power Players (VPPs) are a new player type which allows aggregating a diversity of players (Distributed Generation (DG), Storage Agents (SA), Electrical Vehicles, (V2G) and consumers), to facilitate their participation in the electricity markets and to provide a set of new services promoting generation and consumption efficiency, while improving players` benefits. A major task of VPPs is the remuneration of generation and services (maintenance, market operation costs and energy reserves), as well as charging energy consumption. This paper proposes a model to implement fair and strategic remuneration and tariff methodologies, able to allow efficient VPP operation and VPP goals accomplishment in the scope of electricity markets.

Advances in smart grids - benefits on sharing background experiences from Portugal, Central Europe and Brazil

This paper presents ELECON - Electricity Consumption Analysis to Promote Energy Efficiency Considering Demand Response and Non-technical Losses, an international research project that involves European and Brazilian partners. ELECON focuses on energy efficiency increasing through consumer´s active participation which is a key area for Europe and Brazil cooperation. The project aims at significantly contributing towards the successful implementation of smart grids, focussing on the use of new methods that allow the efficient use of distributed energy resources, namely distributed generation, storage and demand response. ELECON puts together researchers from seven European and Brazilian partners, with consolidated research background and evidencing complementary competences. ELECON involves institutions of 3 European countries (Portugal, Germany, and France) and 4 Brazilian institutions. The complementary background and experience of the European and Brazilian partners is of main relevance to ensure the capacities required to achieve the proposed goals. In fact, the European Union (EU) and Brazil have very different resources and approaches in what concerns this area. Having huge hydro and fossil resources, Brazil has not been putting emphasis on distributed renewable based electricity generation. On the contrary, EU has been doing huge investments in this area, taking into account environmental concerns and also the economic EU external dependence dictated by huge requirements of energy related products imports. Sharing these different backgrounds allows the project team to propose new methodologies able to efficiently address the new challenges of smart grids.

A multi-agent system for the support of producer coalition formation in electricity markets

All over the world Distributed Generation is seen as a valuable help to get cleaner and more efficient electricity. To get negotiation power and advantages of scale economy, distributed producers can be aggregated giving place to a new concept: the Virtual Power Producer. Virtual Power Producers are multitechnology and multi-site heterogeneous entities. Virtual Power Producers should adopt organization and management methodologies so that they can make Distributed Generation a really profitable activity, able to participate in the market. In this paper we address the development of a multi-agent market simulator – MASCEM – able to study alternative coalitions of distributed producers in order to identify promising Virtual Power Producers in an electricity market.

Decision support system with incomplete and domain incoherent information management

Many of the most common human functions such as temporal and non-monotonic reasoning have not yet been fully mapped in developed systems, even though some theoretical breakthroughs have already been accomplished. This is mainly due to the inherent computational complexity of the theoretical approaches. In the particular area of fault diagnosis in power systems however, some systems which tried to solve the problem, have been deployed using methodologies such as production rule based expert systems, neural networks, recognition of chronicles, fuzzy expert systems, etc. SPARSE (from the Portuguese acronym, which means expert system for incident analysis and restoration support) was one of the developed systems and, in the sequence of its development, came the need to cope with incomplete and/or incorrect information as well as the traditional problems for power systems fault diagnosis based on SCADA (supervisory control and data acquisition) information retrieval, namely real-time operation, huge amounts of information, etc. This paper presents an architecture for a decision support system, which can solve the presented problems, using a symbiosis of the event calculus and the default reasoning rule based system paradigms, insuring soft real-time operation with incomplete, incorrect or domain incoherent information handling ability. A prototype implementation of this system is already at work in the control centre of the Portuguese Transmission Network.

Distributed energy resource short-term scheduling using signaled particle swarm optimization

Distributed Energy Resources (DER) scheduling in smart grids presents a new challenge to system operators. The increase of new resources, such as storage systems and demand response programs, results in additional computational efforts for optimization problems. On the other hand, since natural resources, such as wind and sun, can only be precisely forecasted with small anticipation, short-term scheduling is especially relevant requiring a very good performance on large dimension problems. Traditional techniques such as Mixed-Integer Non-Linear Programming (MINLP) do not cope well with large scale problems. This type of problems can be appropriately addressed by metaheuristics approaches. This paper proposes a new methodology called Signaled Particle Swarm Optimization (SiPSO) to address the energy resources management problem in the scope of smart grids, with intensive use of DER. The proposed methodology’s performance is illustrated by a case study with 99 distributed generators, 208 loads, and 27 storage units. The results are compared with those obtained in other methodologies, namely MINLP, Genetic Algorithm, original Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO), Evolutionary PSO, and New PSO. SiPSO performance is superior to the other tested PSO variants, demonstrating its adequacy to solve large dimension problems which require a decision in a short period of time.

The verification of temporal KBS: SPARSE - a case study in power systems

In this paper we present VERITAS, a tool that focus time maintenance, that is one of the most important processes in the engineering of the time during the development of KBS. The verification and validation (V&V) process is part of a wider process denominated knowledge maintenance, in which an enterprise systematically gathers, organizes, shares, and analyzes knowledge to accomplish its goals and mission. The V&V process states if the software requirements specifications have been correctly and completely fulfilled. The methodologies proposed in software engineering have showed to be inadequate for Knowledge Based Systems (KBS) validation and verification, since KBS present some particular characteristics. VERITAS is an automatic tool developed for KBS verification which is able to detect a large number of knowledge anomalies. It addresses many relevant aspects considered in real applications, like the usage of rule triggering selection mechanisms and temporal reasoning.

De intruso a tutor: impactos da formação em contexto PNEP

Este trabalho decorre de uma experiência de formação contínua de âmbito nacional, durante um ano letivo, relacionada com o ensino do português no 1º Ciclo no contexto do Programa Nacional de Ensino do Português (PNEP). Para se compreender o impacto da formação e do seu modelo, analisaram-se as produções escritas (do género narrativo e epistolar) dos alunos do 1º ao 4º ano de escolaridade, os resultados das Provas de Aferição de Língua Portuguesa do 4º ano, os inquéritos de avaliação dos formandos à própria formação, da competência da Comissão Nacional de Acompanhamento (CNA) e, ainda, as reflexões dos portefólios produzidos pelos formandos ao longo da formação. Em génese, pretende-se aferir de que modo esta formação interferiu nas aprendizagens e no desenvolvimento de competências dos alunos no domínio da língua materna, nomeadamente ao nível da escrita. Nessa perspetiva, são comparados dois grupos de alunos do mesmo agrupamento, do distrito de Lisboa, sendo o grupo experimental constituído pelos alunos cujos professores frequentaram a ação de formação PNEP e o grupo de controlo formado por alunos cujos professores nunca frequentaram a referida ação. Todavia, podendo o PNEP ser considerado como uma formação inovadora, porque se desenvolve em contexto, procura-se também saber como se sentiram os professores ao longo desta formação, bem como que repercussões e mais-valias obtiveram para as suas práticas pedagógicas e para a resolução real dos problemas vividos na sala de aula. Por fim, cruzando todos os dados de que se dispõe, aspira-se compreender o papel e o contributo da figura do formador no contexto PNEP, o que poderá conduzir a uma nova abordagem de formação, mais consentânea com o conceito de “mentoria”, e seus processos, do que com os pressupostos iniciais assentes numa lógica de “tutoria”. - This study originates from a one year education experience, nation wide, in the wake of the PNEP (Programa Nacional de Ensino do Português, in its maiden form) program. The aim is to understand how the model herein impacts first to fourth year primary school children’s learning and writing skills, how it influences the fourth year’s final exam results, and how it is reflected on practitioners’ (teachers undergoing the PNEP) performance evaluation inquires, and on concept development within their portfolios. In genesis, we seek to analyse whether the PNEP changed the way children attending primary school learn and master Portuguese, particularly its written expression. To do so, the study focus on two different publics, whereby an experimental group was build around a set of classes whose teachers had completed the PNEP education and training program, and a control group, set around a similar sample, but where teachers had no PNEP education or training at all. In addition, because PNEP might be considered as an advanced education model, we also wanted to disclosure how it adds to schoolteachers’ education techniques, and how it would help them solve daily ordinary problems within the classroom. Last but not the least, the study reveals that PNEP can change Portuguese standard education perspectives, changing classic tutorial methodologies towards a, more responsive, mentoring approach.

An intelligent tutoring approach to support students and technicians in electrical installation design

Designing electric installation projects, demands not only academic knowledge, but also other types of knowledge not easily acquired through traditional instructional methodologies. A lot of additional empirical knowledge is missing and so the academic instruction must be completed with different kinds of knowledge, such as real-life practical examples and simulations. On the other hand, the practical knowledge detained by the most experienced designers is not formalized in such a way that is easily transmitted. In order to overcome these difficulties present in the engineers formation, we are developing an Intelligent Tutoring System (ITS), for training and support concerning the development of electrical installation projects to be used by electrical engineers, technicians and students.

Simulated annealing metaheuristic to solve the optimal power flow

The optimal power flow problem has been widely studied in order to improve power systems operation and planning. For real power systems, the problem is formulated as a non-linear and as a large combinatorial problem. The first approaches used to solve this problem were based on mathematical methods which required huge computational efforts. Lately, artificial intelligence techniques, such as metaheuristics based on biological processes, were adopted. Metaheuristics require lower computational resources, which is a clear advantage for addressing the problem in large power systems. This paper proposes a methodology to solve optimal power flow on economic dispatch context using a Simulated Annealing algorithm inspired on the cooling temperature process seen in metallurgy. The main contribution of the proposed method is the specific neighborhood generation according to the optimal power flow problem characteristics. The proposed methodology has been tested with IEEE 6 bus and 30 bus networks. The obtained results are compared with other wellknown methodologies presented in the literature, showing the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Ant colony search algorithm for the optimal power flow problem

To maintain a power system within operation limits, a level ahead planning it is necessary to apply competitive techniques to solve the optimal power flow (OPF). OPF is a non-linear and a large combinatorial problem. The Ant Colony Search (ACS) optimization algorithm is inspired by the organized natural movement of real ants and has been successfully applied to different large combinatorial optimization problems. This paper presents an implementation of Ant Colony optimization to solve the OPF in an economic dispatch context. The proposed methodology has been developed to be used for maintenance and repairing planning with 48 to 24 hours antecipation. The main advantage of this method is its low execution time that allows the use of OPF when a large set of scenarios has to be analyzed. The paper includes a case study using the IEEE 30 bus network. The results are compared with other well-known methodologies presented in the literature.