Traditional local medicines in the republic of Palau and non-communicable diseases (NCD), signs of effectiveness.

ETHNOPHARMACOLOGICAL RELEVANCE: The aim of this survey was to describe which traditional medicines (TM) are most commonly used for non-communicable diseases (NCD - diabetes, hypertension related to excess weight and obesity) in Pacific islands and with what perceived effectiveness. NCD, especially prevalent in the Pacific, have been subject to many public health interventions, often with rather disappointing results. Innovative interventions are required; one hypothesis is that some local, traditional approaches may have been overlooked. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The method used was a retrospective treatment-outcome study in a nation-wide representative sample of the adult population (about 15,000 individuals) of the Republic of Palau, an archipelago of Micronesia. RESULTS: From 188 respondents (61% female, age 16-87, median 48,), 30 different plants were used, mostly self-prepared (69%), or from a traditional healer (18%). For excess weight, when comparing the two most frequent plants, Morinda citrifolia L. was associated with more adequate outcome than Phaleria nishidae Kaneh. (P=0.05). In case of diabetes, when comparing Phaleria nishidae (=Phaleria nisidai) and Morinda citrifolia, the former was statistically more often associated with the reported outcome "lower blood sugar" (P=0.01). CONCLUSIONS: Statistical association between a plant used and reported outcome is not a proof of effectiveness or safety, but it can help select plants of interest for further studies, e.g. through a reverse pharmacology process, in search of local products which may have a positive impact on population health.

Cost-effectiveness of a community pharmacist intervention in patients with depression: a randomized controlled trial (PRODEFAR study)

Background: Non-adherence to antidepressants generates higher costs for the treatment of depression. Little is known about the cost-effectiveness of pharmacist's interventions aimed at improving adherence to antidepressants. The study aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of a community pharmacist intervention in comparison with usual care in depressed patients initiating treatment with antidepressants in primary care. Methods: Patients were recruited by general practitioners and randomized to community pharmacist intervention (87) that received an educational intervention and usual care (92). Adherence to antidepressants, clinical symptoms, Quality-Adjusted Life-Years (QALYs), use of healthcare services and productivity losses were measured at baseline, 3 and 6 months. Results: There were no significant differences between groups in costs or effects. From a societal perspective, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for the community pharmacist intervention compared with usual care was 1,866 for extra adherent patient and 9,872 per extra QALY. In terms of remission of depressive symptoms, the usual care dominated the community pharmacist intervention. If willingness to pay (WTP) is 30,000 per extra adherent patient, remission of symptoms or QALYs, the probability of the community pharmacist intervention being cost-effective was 0.71, 0.46 and 0.75, respectively (societal perspective). From a healthcare perspective, the probability of the community pharmacist intervention being cost-effective in terms of adherence, QALYs and remission was of 0.71, 0.76 and 0.46, respectively, if WTP is 30,000. Conclusion: A brief community pharmacist intervention addressed to depressed patients initiating antidepressant treatment showed a probability of being cost-effective of 0.71 and 0.75 in terms of improvement of adherence and QALYs, respectively, when compared to usual care. Regular implementation of the community pharmacist intervention is not recommended.

Effectiveness of a primary care-based intervention to reduce sitting time in overweight and obese patients (SEDESTACTIV): a randomized controlled trial; rationale and study design

Background: There is growing evidence suggesting that prolonged sitting has negative effects on people's weight, chronic diseases and mortality. Interventions to reduce sedentary time can be an effective strategy to increase daily energy expenditure. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the effectiveness of a six-month primary care intervention to reduce daily of sitting time in overweight and mild obese sedentary patients. Method/Design: The study is a randomized controlled trial (RCT). Professionals from thirteen primary health care centers (PHC) will randomly invite to participate mild obese or overweight patients of both gender, aged between 25 and 65 years old, who spend 6 hours at least daily sitting. A total of 232 subjects will be randomly allocated to an intervention (IG) and control group (CG) (116 individuals each group). In addition, 50 subjects with fibromyalgia will be included. Primary outcome is: (1) sitting time using the activPAL device and the Marshall questionnaire. The following parameters will be also assessed: (2) sitting time in work place (Occupational Sitting and Physical Activity Questionnaire), (3) health-related quality of life (EQ-5D), (4) evolution of stage of change (Prochaska and DiClemente's Stages of Change Model), (5) physical inactivity (catalan version of Brief Physical Activity Assessment Tool), (6) number of steps walked (pedometer and activPAL), (7) control based on analysis (triglycerides, total cholesterol, HDL, LDL, glycemia and, glycated haemoglobin in diabetic patients) and (8) blood pressure and anthropometric variables. All parameters will be assessed pre and post intervention and there will be a follow up three, six and twelve months after the intervention. A descriptive analysis of all variables and a multivariate analysis to assess differences among groups will be undertaken. Multivariate analysis will be carried out to assess time changes of dependent variables. All the analysis will be done under the intention to treat principle. Discussion: If the SEDESTACTIV intervention shows its effectiveness in reducing sitting time, health professionals would have a low-cost intervention tool for sedentary overweight and obese patients management.

Lappeenrannan teknillisen korkeakoulun alueellinen vaikuttavuus

Tutkimuksen tavoitteena on selvittää Lappeenrannan teknillisen korkeakoulun (LTKK:n) koulutuksellista ja taloudellista vaikuttavuutta Etelä-Karjalassa ja kehittää sitä kuvaavia mittareita. Lisäksi selvitetään sidosryhmien näkemystä LTKK:n imagosta sekä osaamisen ja inhimillisen pääoman alueellista merkitystä. Tutkimus on luonteeltaan toiminta-analyyttinen, mutta sisältää myös käsite-analyyttisiä ja nomoteettisia piirteitä. Lähtökohtana vaikuttavuuden tarkastelussa pidetään yliopiston yhteiskunnallisia funktioita. Nämä funktiot ovat: opetus, tutkimus sekä olemassaolo ja toiminta. Tässä tutkimuksessa yliopisto nähdään inhimillisen pääoman kartuttajana, työvoiman tuottajana, työllistäjänä, rahavirtojen lähteenä, yhteistyökumppanina ja innovaatiokeskuksena. Myös yliopiston imagoa pidetään yhtenä vaikuttavuuden osatekijänä. Tutkimus sisältää sekä teoreettisen että empiirisen osan. Teoriaosassa käsitellään yliopiston vaikuttavuuteen liittyviä käsitteitä ja malleja, osaamisen alueellista merkitystä ja yliopiston roolia inhimillisen pääoman tuottajana sekä yliopiston imagon merkitystä. Tutkimukseen liittyi LTKK:sta vuonna 1997 – 2000 valmistuneille tehty kyselytutkimus sekä sidosryhmiin kohdistettu teema-haastattelu. Tutkimuksen empiriaosassa mitataan LTKK:n alueellista vaikuttavuutta opetukseen, tutkimukseen sekä olemassaoloon ja yhteistyöhön liittyvien mittareiden perusteella. Tutkimuksen perusteella voidaan todeta, että LTKK:n merkitys työvoiman tuottajana on voimakkaasti kasvanut, samoin kuin valmistumisen jälkeen Etelä-Karjalaan jäävien osuus. LTKK:sta valmistuneet pitävät koulutuksen antamia valmiuksia pääosin hyvinä, mutta työnantajat näkevät puutteita muun muassa johtamis- ja sosiaalisissa taidoissa. LTKK saa toiminnallaan aikaan huomattavia rahavirtoja ja on tärkeä yhteistyökumppani alueen muiden toimijoiden kannalta, lukuun ottamatta pienyrityksiä. LTKK:n imago on maakunnassa positiivinen, mutta sen valtakunnallinen tunnettuus on huono.

Diffusion of Administrative Innovation: TQM Implementation and Effectiveness in a Global

The main objective of this dissertation is to create new knowledge on an administrative innovation, its adoption, diffusion and finally its effectiveness. In this dissertation the administrative innovation is approached through a widely utilized management philosophy, namely the total quality management (TQM) strategy. TQM operationalizes a self-assessment procedure, which is based on continual improvement principles and measuring the improvements. This dissertation also captures the theme of change management as it analyzes the adoption and diffusion of the administrative innovation. It identifies innovation characteristics as well as organisational and individual factors explaining the adoption and implementation. As a special feature, this study also explores the effectiveness of the innovation based on objective data. For studying the administrative innovation (TQM model), a multinational Case Company provides a versatile ground for a deep, longitudinal analysis. The Case Company started the adoption systematically in the mid 1980s in some of its units. As part of their strategic planning today, the procedure is in use throughout the entire global company. The empirical story begins from the innovation adoption decision that was made in the Case Company over 22 years ago. In order to be able to capture the right atmosphere and backgrounds leading to the adoption decision, key informants from that time were interviewed, since the main target was to clarify the dynamics of how an administrative innovation develops. In addition, archival material was collected and studied, available memos and data relating to the innovation, innovation adoption and later to the implementation contained altogether 20500 pages of documents. A survey was furthermore conducted at the end of 2006 focusing on questions related to the innovation, organization and leadership characteristics and the response rate totalled up to 54%. For measuring the effectiveness of the innovation implementation, the needed longitudinal objective performance data was collected. This data included the profit unit level experience of TQM, the development of the self assessment scores per profit unit and performance data per profit unit measured with profitability, productivity and customer satisfaction. The data covered the years 1995-2006. As a result, the prerequisites for the successful adoption of an administrative innovation were defined, such as the top management involvement, support of the change agents and effective tools for implementation and measurement. The factors with the greatest effect on the depth of the implementation were the timing of the adoption and formalization. The results also indicated that the TQM model does have an effect on the company performance measured with profitability, productivity and customer satisfaction. Consequently this thesis contributes to the present literature (i) by taking into its scope an administrative innovation and focusing on the whole innovation implementation process, from the adoption, through diffusion until its consequences, (ii) because the studied factors with an effect on the innovation adoption and diffusion are multifaceted and grouped into individual, organizational and environmental factors, and a strong emphasis is put on the role of the individual change agents and (iii) by measuring the depth and consistency of the administrative innovation. This deep analysis was possible due to the availability of longitudinal data with triangulation possibilities.

Comparative effectiveness of gemcitabine plus cisplatin versus methotrexate, vinblastine, doxorubicin, plus cisplatin as neoadjuvant therapy for muscle-invasive bladder cancer.

BACKGROUND: Gemcitabine plus cisplatin (GC) has been adopted as a neoadjuvant regimen for muscle-invasive bladder cancer despite the lack of Level I evidence in this setting. METHODS: Data were collected using an electronic data-capture platform from 28 international centers. Eligible patients had clinical T-classification 2 (cT2) through cT4aN0M0 urothelial cancer of the bladder and received neoadjuvant GC or methotrexate, vinblastine, doxorubicin, plus cisplatin (MVAC) before undergoing cystectomy. Logistic regression was used to compute propensity scores as the predicted probabilities of patients being assigned to MVAC versus GC given their baseline characteristics. These propensity scores were then included in a new logistic regression model to estimate an adjusted odds ratio comparing the odds of attaining a pathologic complete response (pCR) between patients who received MVAC and those who received GC. RESULTS: In total, 212 patients (146 patients in the GC cohort and 66 patients in the MVAC cohort) met criteria for inclusion in the analysis. The majority of patients in the MVAC cohort (77%) received dose-dense MVAC. The median age of patients was 63 years, they were predominantly men (74%), and they received a median of 3 cycles of neoadjuvant chemotherapy. The pCR rate was 29% in the MVAC cohort and 31% in the GC cohort. There was no significant difference in the pCR rate when adjusted for propensity scores between the 2 regimens (odds ratio, 0.91; 95% confidence interval, 0.48-1.72; P = .77). In an exploratory analysis evaluating survival, the hazard ratio comparing hazard rates for MVAC versus GC adjusted for propensity scores was not statistically significant (hazard ratio, 0.78; 95% confidence interval, 0.40-1.54; P = .48). CONCLUSIONS: Patients who received neoadjuvant GC and MVAC achieved comparable pCR rates in the current analysis, providing evidence to support what has become routine practice. Cancer 2015;121:2586-2593. © 2015 American Cancer Society.

Demonstration of the effectiveness of zinc in diarrhoea of children living in Switzerland.

We designed a double-blinded randomized clinical trial of zinc (10 or 20 mg of zinc sulphate for 2-5 month-old or 6-59 month-old children, respectively, during 10 days) vs. placebo in otherwise healthy children aged 2 months to 5 years who presented with acute diarrhoea (i.e. ≥3 stools/day for less than 72 h). Eighty-seven patients (median age 14 months; range 3.1-58.3) were analysed in an intention-to-treat approach. Forty-two patients took zinc and 45 placebo. There was no difference in the duration nor in the frequency of diarrhoea, but only 5% of the zinc group still had diarrhoea at 120 h of treatment compared to 20% in the placebo group (P = 0.05). Thirty-one patients (13 zinc and 18 placebo) were available for per-protocol analyses. The median (IQR) duration of diarrhoea in zinc-treated patients was 47.5 h (18.3-72) and differed significantly from the placebo group (median 76.3; IQR 52.8-137) (P = 0.03). The frequency of diarrhoea was also lower in the zinc group (P = 0.02). CONCLUSION: zinc treatment decreases the frequency and severity of diarrhoea in children aged 2 months to 5 years living in Switzerland. However, the intention-to-treat analysis reveals compliance issues that question the proper duration of treatment and the choice of optimal pharmaceutical formulation.

Toiminnan laadun parantaminen organisaation itsearvioinnilla – tutkimus Suomen puolustusvoimien tulosyksiköissä

Laajoilla kyselylomaketutkimuksilla on tutkittu organisaation itsearvioinnin käyttöönoton motiiveja, käyttöä ja käytön hyötyjä 1990-luvulla ja 2000-luvun alussa. Organisaation itsearviointia on myös tutkittu laatupalkintomallien soveltamisen yhteydessä. Kolmas tutkimussuuntaus, johon myös tämä tutkimus sisältyy, on organisaation itsearvioinnin tutkiminen erilaisissa asiayhteyksissä. Tämän tutkimuksen tarkoituksena on lisätä tietoa ja ymmärrystä organisaation itsearvioinnista ja sen vaikuttavuudesta tutkimalla, miten organisaatiota itsearvioidaan maavoimien valmiusyhtymissä ja Maasotakoulussa. Näissä neljässä paikallistutkimuksessa käytin tutkimusotteena tapaustutkimuksen mukaista tutkimusstrategiaa. Aiempien tutkimuksien tulosten perusteella tärkein yhdistävä tekijä toiminnan parantamisessa on pyrkimys kokonaisvaltaisuuteen toiminnan laadun parantamisessa ja erinomaisuuden tavoittelussa. Osin kokonaisvaltaisuuteen sisältyviä ja sitä tukevia tekijöitä ovat jatkuvan parantamisen periaatteen käyttäminen ja oppivan organisaation edellyttämien toimintaedellytyksien luominen ja niiden huomioon ottaminen toiminnassa. Edelleen yhteisenä tekijänä ovat johdon sitoutumisen ja osallistumisen vaikutukset työntekijöiden osallistumiseen ja sitoutumiseen. Teorian perusteella olen arvioinut muodostuvan kolme organisaation itsearvioinnin strategisen tason johtamiskäytäntöä, jotka ovat ”Laatupalkinnon hakeminen”, ”Toiminnan ja tulosten arviointi” sekä ”Toiminnan kypsyyden arviointi”. Tutkimuksen tulosten perusteella organisaation itsearvioinnin vaikuttavuuden merkityskokonaisuus on selitettävissä viiden teeman avulla. Koko tutkimusaineiston yhdistäväksi vaikuttavuuden teemaksi, josta myös organisaation itsearvioinnin vaiheistus saa tukea, muodostuu teema ”organisaation itsearviointi ja tulosjohtaminen”. Tämän teeman perusteella organisaation itsearvioinnin vaikuttavuus perustuu itsearvioinnin käyttämiseen sekä tulosyksikön sisäisenä että johdon strategisen tason itsearviointina osana tulosjohtamista. Samoin teema ”ollaanko samaa perhettä” löytyy jokaisesta tutkimuskohteena olleesta tulosyksiköstä. Teeman perusteella vaikuttavuus perustuu siihen, että organisaation itsearvioinnin tilaisuus koetaan sosiaalisena tapahtumana ja organisaation itsearviointi vahvistaa työntekijöiden osallistumista ja sitoutumista toiminnan laadun parantamiseen. Vaikuttavuuden teemoissa ”poistetaan kivi kengästä, ja hiertäminen loppuu siihen”, ”strateginen valinta” ja ”henkilöstön työhyvinvoinnin edistäminen” organisaation itsearvioinnin vaikuttavuus on tulosyksikkökohtainen. Organisaation itsearvioinnista haetaan vaikuttavuutta organisaation itsearvioinnista saatavien tulosten nopealla toimeenpanolla. Vaikuttavuuteen pyritään systemaattisella eri organisaation tasoilla tehtävillä toiminnan kuvauksilla, mihin liittyy laatupalkinnon hakeminen. Vaikuttavuuteen voidaan myös päästä työpistelähtöisesti henkilöstön johtamisen ja hallinnon kautta. Vaiheistettua organisaation itsearviointia voidaan käyttää osana tulosjohtamista. Muita keskeisiä tutkimustuloksia ovat organisaation itsearvioinnin välittömät ja välilliset vaikutukset. Tutkimuksen tulosten perusteella teen suositukset organisaation itsearvioinnin johtamiskäytännöistä ja organisaation itsearvioinnin vaiheistuksesta osana tulosyksikön tulosjohtamista. Kolmas suositus käsittää organisaation itsearvioinnin käytön palautejärjestelmänä.

The empirical assessment of agency accountability: A regime approach and an application to the German Bundesnetzagentur

Regulation has in many cases been delegated to independent agencies, which has led to the question of how democratic accountability of these agencies is ensured. There are few empirical approaches to agency accountability. We offer such an approach, resting upon three propositions. First, we scrutinize agency accountability both de jure (accountability is ensured by formal rights of accountability 'fora' to receive information and impose consequences) and de facto (the capability of fora to use these rights depends on resources and decision costs that affect the credibility of their sanctioning capacity). Second, accountability must be evaluated separately at political, operational and managerial levels. And third, at each level accountability is enacted by a system of several (partially) interdependent fora, forming together an accountability regime. The proposed framework is applied to the case of the German Bundesnetzagentur's accountability regime, which shows its suitability for empirical purposes. Regulatory agencies are often considered as independent, yet accountable. This article provides a realistic framework for the study of accountability 'regimes' in which they are embedded. It emphasizes the need to identify the various actors (accountability fora) to which agencies are formally accountable (parliamentary committees, auditing bodies, courts, and so on) and to consider possible relationships between them. It argues that formal accountability 'on paper', as defined in official documents, does not fully account for de facto accountability, which depends on the resources possessed by the fora (mainly information-processing and decision-making capacities) and the credibility of their sanctioning capacities. The article applies this framework to the German Bundesnetzagentur.

Improvement of Operational Efficiency effectiveness (OEE) using Six Sigma DMAIC Methodology — Case Bottomer line AD2378

Overall Equipment Effectiveness (OEE) is the key metric of operational excellence. OEE monitors the actual performance of equipment relative to its performance capabilities under optimal manufacturing conditions. It looks at the entire manufacturing environment measuring, in addition to the equipment availability, the production efficiency while the equipment is available to run products, as well as the efficiency loss that results from scrap, rework, and yield losses. The analysis of the OEE provides improvement opportunities for the operation. One of the tools used for OEE improvement is Six Sigma DMAIC methodology which is a set of practices originally developed to improve processes by eliminating defects. It asserts the continuous efforts to reduce variation in process outputs as key to business success, as well as the possibility of measurement, analysis, improvement and control of manufacturing and business processes. In the case of the Bottomer line AD2378 in Papsac Maghreb Casablanca plant, the OEE figures reached 48.65 %, which is below the accepted OEE group performance. This required immediate actions to achieve OEE improvement. This Master thesis focuses on the application of Six Sigma DMAIC methodology in the OEE improvement on the Bottomer Line AD2378 in Papsac Maghreb Casablanca plant. First, the Six Sigma DMAIC and OEE usage in operation measurement will be discussed. Afterwards, the different DMAIC phases will allow the identification of improvement focus, the identification of OEE low performance causes and the design of improvement solutions. These will be implemented to allow further tracking of improvement impact on the plant operations.

Les vaccins contre le zona : efficacité, sécurité, et rapport coût/bénéfices [Vaccines against Herpes zoster: Effectiveness, safety, and cost/benefit ratio].

CONTEXT: A vaccination against herpes zoster and its complication is available in France since June 2015. Its exact benefit for public health is still controversial and its level of protection is not optimal. All those reasons seem to suggest a low acceptation rate from general practitioners. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the effectiveness, the safety, and the cost/benefit ratio of the vaccination against herpes zoster in people aged 50 year or over. DOCUMENTARY SOURCE: Systematic review in Medline and PubMed with research by key words: "herpes zoster vaccine", "zoster vaccine" and "post herpetic neuralgia vaccine". SELECTION OF STUDIES: Randomized and observational studies published in English and French language have been selected by two readers. RESULTS: On 1886 articles identified, 62 studies were included in this systematic review of which 21 randomized trials, 21 observational studies, and 17 medico-economic studies concerned the unadjuvanted vaccine. Considered studies showed an effectiveness of 50% against herpes zoster and 60% on post-herpetic neuralgia incidence of the unadjuvanted vaccine. Five randomized controlled studies were identified for the adjuvanted vaccine. The overall effectiveness of this vaccine was > 90% whatever the age of subjects including those over age 70 and 80. The medico-economic studies conducted in many countries have shown that vaccine policies were beneficial in individuals aged 60 years or over. LIMITATION OF THE WORK: Most of data of effectiveness, and tolerance result from 2 large controlled studies only (SPS and ZEST) for the unadjuvanted vaccine and only one for the adjuvanted vaccine. CONCLUSION: Despite controversy and few uncertainties, the vaccine significantly reduces herpes zoster and its complication incidence. In terms of public health objectives, it reduces the burden of the disease and has a positive medico-economic impact. Preliminary data concerning the adjuvanted vaccine, whilst very promising, are still too limited. Up to now, no group of people with particularly high risk of herpes zoster-related complication who will beneficiate the most of the vaccination has been identified yet and only an age criteria has been considered for the recommendation.

Facilitating coordination improvement efforts in cross-functional process development programs

Business process improvement is a common approach in increasing the effectiveness of an organization. It can be seen as an effort to increase coordination between units. Process improvement has proved to be challenging, and most management consultation firms facilitate organizations in this kind of initiatives. Cross-functional improvement is one of the main areas for internal consultants as well. However, the needs, challenges and means of cross-functional help have been rarely discussed in the literature. The objective of this thesis is on one hand to present a conceptual and descriptive framework to help understand the challenges of facilitating coordination improvement efforts in cross-functional improvement programs, and on the other hand to develop and test feasible solutions for some facilitation situations. The research questions are: 1. Why and in what kind of situations do organizations need help in developing coordination in cross-functional processes? 2. How can a facilitator help organizations in improving coordination to develop cross-functional processes? The study consists of two parts. The first part is an overview of the dissertation, and the second part comprises six research publications. The theoretical background for the study are the differentiation causing challenges in cross-functional settings, the coordination needed to improve processes, change management principles, methods and tools, and consultation practises. Three of the publications introduce tools for helping in developing prerequisites, planning responsibilities and supporting learning during the cross-functional program. The three other papers present frameworks to help understand and analyse the improvement situation. The main methodological approaches used in this study are design science research, action research and case research. The research data has been collected from ten cases representing different kinds of organizations, processes and developing situations. The data has been collected mainly by observation, semi-structured interviews and questionnaires. The research contributes to the rare literature combining coordination theories and process improvement practises. It also provides additional understanding of a holistic point of view in process improvement situations. The most important contribution is the addition to the theories of facilitating change in process improvement situations. From the managerial point of view, this study gives advice to managers and consultants in planning and executing cross-functional programs. The main factors increasing the need for facilitation are the challenges for differentiation, challenges of organizational change in general, and the novelty of initiatives and improvement practices concerning process development. Organizations need help in creating the prerequisites to change, in planning initiatives, easing conflict management and collaboration between groups, as well as supporting the learning of cross-functional improvement. The main challenges of facilitation are combining the different roles as a consultant, maintaining the ownership for the improvement project with the client, and supporting learning in the client organization.

Predicting the future effectiveness of protected areas for bird conservation in Mediterranean ecosystems under climate change and novel fire regime scenarios

AimGlobal environmental changes challenge traditional conservation approaches based on the selection of static protected areas due to their limited ability to deal with the dynamic nature of driving forces relevant to biodiversity. The Natura 2000 network (N2000) constitutes a major milestone in biodiversity conservation in Europe, but the degree to which this static network will be able to reach its long-term conservation objectives raises concern. We assessed the changes in the effectiveness of N2000 in a Mediterranean ecosystem between 2000 and 2050 under different combinations of climate and land cover change scenarios. LocationCatalonia, Spain. MethodsPotential distribution changes of several terrestrial bird species of conservation interest included in the European Union's Birds Directive were predicted within an ensemble-forecasting framework that hierarchically integrated climate change and land cover change scenarios. Land cover changes were simulated using a spatially explicit fire-succession model that integrates fire management strategies and vegetation encroachment after the abandonment of cultivated areas as the main drivers of landscape dynamics in Mediterranean ecosystems. ResultsOur results suggest that the amount of suitable habitats for the target species will strongly decrease both inside and outside N2000. However, the effectiveness of N2000 is expected to increase in the next decades because the amount of suitable habitats is predicted to decrease less inside than outside this network. Main conclusionsSuch predictions shed light on the key role that the current N2000may play in the near future and emphasize the need for an integrative conservation perspective wherein agricultural, forest and fire management policies should be considered to effectively preserve key habitats for threatened birds in fire-prone, highly dynamic Mediterranean ecosystems. Results also show the importance of considering landscape dynamics and the synergies between different driving forces when assessing the long-term effectiveness of protected areas for biodiversity conservation.