Long-term perspective on wildfires in the western USA

Understanding the causes and consequences of wildfires in forests of the western United States requires integrated information about fire, climate changes, and human activity on multiple temporal scales. We use sedimentary charcoal accumulation rates to construct long-term variations in fire during the past 3,000 y in the American West and compare this record to independent fire-history data from historical records and fire scars. There has been a slight decline in burning over the past 3,000 y, with the lowest levels attained during the 20th century and during the Little Ice Age (LIA, ca. 1400-1700 CE Common Era]). Prominent peaks in forest fires occurred during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (ca. 950-1250 CE) and during the 1800s. Analysis of climate reconstructions beginning from 500 CE and population data show that temperature and drought predict changes in biomass burning up to the late 1800s CE. Since the late 1800s, human activities and the ecological effects of recent high fire activity caused a large, abrupt decline in burning similar to the LIA fire decline. Consequently, there is now a forest ``fire deficit'' in the western United States attributable to the combined effects of human activities, ecological, and climate changes. Large fires in the late 20th and 21st century fires have begun to address the fire deficit, but it is continuing to grow.

Statin therapy and long-term adverse limb outcomes in patients with peripheral artery disease: insights from the REACH registry

AIMS Due to a high burden of systemic cardiovascular events, current guidelines recommend the use of statins in all patients with peripheral artery disease (PAD). We sought to study the impact of statin use on limb prognosis in patients with symptomatic PAD enrolled in the international REACH registry. METHODS Statin use was assessed at study enrolment, as well as a time-varying covariate. Rates of the primary adverse limb outcome (worsening claudication/new episode of critical limb ischaemia, new percutaneous/surgical revascularization, or amputation) at 4 years and the composite of cardiovascular death/myocardial infarction/stroke were compared among statin users vs. non-users. RESULTS A total of 5861 patients with symptomatic PAD were included. Statin use at baseline was 62.2%. Patients who were on statins had a significantly lower risk of the primary adverse limb outcome at 4 years when compared with those who were not taking statins [22.0 vs. 26.2%; hazard ratio (HR), 0.82; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.72-0.92; P = 0.0013]. Results were similar when statin use was considered as a time-dependent variable (P = 0.018) and on propensity analysis (P < 0.0001). The composite of cardiovascular death/myocardial infarction/stroke was similarly reduced (HR, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.73-0.96; P = 0.01). CONCLUSION Among patients with PAD in the REACH registry, statin use was associated with an ∼18% lower rate of adverse limb outcomes, including worsening symptoms, peripheral revascularization, and ischaemic amputations. These findings suggest that statin therapy not only reduces the risk of adverse cardiovascular events, but also favourably affects limb prognosis in patients with PAD.

The Impact of Renal Impairment on Long-Term Safety and Effectiveness of Drug-Eluting Stents

BACKGROUND Renal impairment (RI) is associated with impaired prognosis in patients with coronary artery disease. Clinical and angiographic outcomes of patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) with the use of drug-eluting stents (DES) in this patient population are not well established. METHODS We pooled individual data for 5,011 patients from 3 trials with the exclusive and unrestricted use of DES (SIRTAX - N = 1,012, LEADERS - N = 1,707, RESOLUTE AC - N = 2,292). Angiographic follow-up was available for 1,544 lesions. Outcomes through 2 years were stratified according to glomerular filtration rate (normal renal function: GFR≥90 ml/min; mild RI: 90

Long-term relationships among pesticide applications, mobility, and soil erosion in a vineyard watershed

Agricultural pesticide use has increased worldwide during the last several decades, but the long-term fate, storage, and transfer dynamics of pesticides in a changing environment are poorly understood. Many pesticides have been progressively banned, but in numerous cases, these molecules are stable and may persist in soils, sediments, and ice. Many studies have addressed the question of their possible remobilization as a result of global change. In this article, we present a retro-observation approach based on lake sediment records to monitor micropollutants and to evaluate the long-term succession and diffuse transfer of herbicides, fungicides, and insecticide treatments in a vineyard catchment in France. The sediment allows for a reliable reconstruction of past pesticide use through time, validated by the historical introduction, use, and banning of these organic and inorganic pesticides in local vineyards. Our results also revealed how changes in these practices affect storage conditions and, consequently, the pesticides’ transfer dynamics. For example, the use of postemergence herbicides (glyphosate), which induce an increase in soil erosion, led to a release of a banned remnant pesticide (dichlorodiphenyltrichloro- ethane, DDT), which had been previously stored in vineyard soil, back into the environment. Management strategies of ecotoxico- logical risk would be well served by recognition of the diversity of compounds stored in various environmental sinks, such as agriculture soil, and their capability to become sources when environmental conditions change.

The views of European clinicians on guidelines for long-term follow-up of childhood cancer survivors.

BACKGROUND Evidence-based guidelines are needed to guide effective long-term follow-up (LTFU) of childhood cancer survivors (CCS) at risk of late adverse effects (LAEs). We aimed to ascertain the use of LTFU guidelines throughout Europe, and seek views on the need for pan-European LTFU guidelines. PROCEDURES One expert clinician from each of 44 European countries was invited to participate in an online survey. Information was sought regarding the use and content of LTFU guidelines in the respondent's centre and country, and their views about developing pan-European LTFU guidelines. RESULTS Thirty-one countries (70%) responded, including 24 of 26 full EU countries (92%). LTFU guidelines were implemented nationally in 17 countries (55%). All guidelines included recommendations about physical LAEs, specific risk groups and frequency of surveillance, and the majority about psychosocial LAEs (70%), and healthy lifestyle promotion (65%). A minority of guidelines described recommendations about transition to age-appropriate LTFU services (22%), where LTFU should be performed (22%) and by whom (30%). Most respondents (94%) agreed on the need for pan-European LTFU guidelines, specifically including recommendations about surveillance for specific physical LAEs (97%), action to be taken if a specific LAE is detected (90%), minimum requirements for LTFU (93%), transition and health promotion (both 87%). CONCLUSIONS Guidelines are not universally used throughout Europe. However, there is strong support for developing pan-European LTFU guidelines for CCS. PanCareSurFup (www.pancare.eu) will collaborate with partners to develop such guidelines, including recommendations for hitherto relatively neglected topics, such as minimum LTFU requirements, transition and health promotion.

Long-term storage affects adhesion between titanium and zirconia using resin cements.

PURPOSE To determine the impact of long-term storage on adhesion between titanium and zirconia using resin cements. MATERIALS AND METHODS Titanium grade 4 blocks were adhesively fixed onto zirconia disks with four resin cements: Panavia F 2.0 (Kuraray Europe), GC G-Cem (GC Europe), RelyX Unicem (3M ESPE), and SmartCem 2 (Dentsply DeguDent). Shear bond strength was determined after storage in a water bath for 24 h, 16, 90, and 150 days at 37°C, and after 6000 cycles between 5°C and 55°C. Fracture behavior was evaluated using scanning electron microscopy. RESULTS After storage for at least 90 days and after thermocycling, GC G-Cem (16.9 MPa and 15.1 MPa, respectively) and RelyX Unicem (10.8 MPa and 15.7 MPa, respectively) achieved higher shear bond strength compared to SmartCem 2 (7.1 MPa and 4.0 MPa, respectively) and Panavia F2 (4.1 MPa and 7.4 MPa, respectively). At day 150, GC G-Cem and RelyX Unicem caused exclusively mixed fractures. SmartCem 2 and Panavia F2 showed adhesive fractures in one-third of the cases; all other fractures were of mixed type. After 24 h (GC G-Cem: 26.0, RelyX Unicem: 20.5 MPa, SmartCem 2: 16.1 MPa, Panavia F2: 23.6 MPa) and 16 days (GC G-Cem: 12.8, RelyX Unicem: 14.2 MPa, SmartCem 2: 9.8 MPa, Panavia F2: 14.7 MPa) of storage, shear bond strength was similar among the four cements. CONCLUSION Long-term storage and thermocycling differentially affects the bonding of resin cement between titanium and zirconia.

Meta-Analysis of Long-Term Land Management Effect on Soil Organic Carbon (SOC) in Ethiopia

The role of Soil Organic Carbon (SOC) in mitigating climate change, indicating soil quality and ecosystem function has created research interested to know the nature of SOC at landscape level. The objective of this study was to examine variation and distribution of SOC in a long-term land management at a watershed and plot level. This study was based on meta-analysis of three case studies and 128 surface soil samples from Ethiopia. Three sites (Gununo, Anjeni and Maybar) were compared after considering two Land Management Categories (LMC) and three types of land uses (LUT) in quasi-experimental design. Shapiro-Wilk tests showed non-normal distribution (p = 0.002, a = 0.05) of the data. SOC median value showed the effect of long-term land management with values of 2.29 and 2.38 g kg-1 for less and better-managed watersheds, respectively. SOC values were 1.7, 2.8 and 2.6 g kg-1 for Crop (CLU), Grass (GLU) and Forest Land Use (FLU), respectively. The rank order for SOC variability was FLU>GLU>CLU. Mann-Whitney U and Kruskal-Wallis test showed a significant difference in the medians and distribution of SOC among the LUT, between soil profiles (p<0.05, confidence interval 95%, a = 0.05) while it is not significant (p>0.05) for LMC. The mean and sum rank of Mann Whitney U and Kruskal Wallis test also showed the difference at watershed and plot level. Using SOC as a predictor, cross-validated correct classification with discriminant analysis showed 46 and 49% for LUT and LMC, respectively. The study showed how to categorize landscapes using SOC with respect to land management for decision-makers.

Cyclophosphamide: As bad as its reputation? Long-term single centre experience of cyclophosphamide side effects in the treatment of systemic autoimmune diseases

OBJECTIVES Despite new treatment modalities, cyclophosphamide (CYC) remains a cornerstone in the treatment of organ or life-threatening vasculitides and connective tissue disorders. We aimed at analysing the short- and long-term side-effects of CYC treatment in patients with systemic autoimmune diseases. METHODS Chart review and phone interviews regarding side effects of CYC in patients with systemic autoimmune diseases treated between 1984 and 2011 in a single university centre. Adverse events were stratified according to the "Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events" version 4. RESULTS A total of 168 patients were included. Cumulative CYC dose was 7.45 g (range 0.5-205 g). Gastro-intestinal side effects were seen in 68 events, hair loss occurred in 38 events. A total of 58 infections were diagnosed in 44/168 patients (26.2%) with 9/44 suffering multiple infections. Severity grading of infections was low in 37/58 cases (63.8%). One CYC-related infection-induced death (0.6%) was registered. Amenorrhoea occurred in 7/92 females (7.6%) with 5/7 remaining irreversible. In females with reversible amenorrhoea, prophylaxis with nafarelin had been administered. Malignancy was registered in 19 patients after 4.7 years (median, range 0.25-22.25) presenting as 4 premalignancies and 18 malignancies, 3 patients suffered 2 premalignancies/malignancies each. Patients with malignancies were older with a higher cumulative CYC dose. Death was registered in 28 patients (16.6%) with 2/28 probably related to CYC. CONCLUSIONS Considering the organ or life-threatening conditions which indicate the use of CYC, severe drug-induced health problems were rare. Our data confirm the necessity to follow-up patients long-term for timely diagnosis of malignancies. CYC side-effects do not per se justify prescription of newer drugs or biologic agents in the treatment of autoimmune diseases.

A Baseline Wander Tracking System for Artifact Rejection in Long-Term Electrocardiography

Long-term electrocardiogram (ECG) signals might suffer from relevant baseline disturbances during physical activity. Motion artifacts in particular are more pronounced with dry surface or esophageal electrodes which are dedicated to prolonged ECG recording. In this paper we present a method called baseline wander tracking (BWT) that tracks and rejects strong baseline disturbances and avoids concurrent saturation of the analog front-end. The proposed algorithm shifts the baseline level of the ECG signal to the middle of the dynamic input range. Due to the fast offset shifts, that produce much steeper signal portions than the normal ECG waves, the true ECG signal can be reconstructed offline and filtered using computationally intensive algorithms. Based on Monte Carlo simulations we observed reconstruction errors mainly caused by the non-linearity inaccuracies of the DAC. However, the signal to error ratio of the BWT is higher compared to an analog front-end featuring a dynamic input ranges above 15 mV if a synthetic ECG signal was used. The BWT is additionally able to suppress (electrode) offset potentials without introducing long transients. Due to its structural simplicity, memory efficiency and the DC coupling capability, the BWT is dedicated to high integration required in long-term and low-power ECG recording systems.

Long-term summer temperature variations in the Pyrenees from detrended stable carbon isotopes

Substantial effort has recently been put into the development of climate reconstructions from tree-ring stable carbon isotopes, though the interpretation of long-term trends retained in such timeseries remains challenging. Here we use detrended δ13C measurements in Pinus uncinata tree-rings, from the Spanish Pyrenees, to reconstruct decadal variations in summer temperature back to the 13th century. The June-August temperature signal of this reconstruction is attributed using decadally as well as annually resolved, 20th century δ13C data. Results indicate that late 20th century warming has not been unique within the context of the past 750 years. Our reconstruction contains greater am-plitude than previous reconstructions derived from traditional tree-ring density data, and describes particularly cool conditions during the late 19th century. Some of these differences, including early warm periods in the 14th and 17th centuries, have been retained via δ13C timeseries detrending - a novel approach in tree-ring stable isotope chronology development. The overall reduced variance in earlier studies points to an underestimation of pre-instrumental summer temperature variability de-rived from traditional tree-ring parameters.

The long-term development of avalanche risk in settlements considering the temporal variability of damage potential

Recent studies on the avalanche risk in alpine settlements suggested a strong dependency of the development of risk on variations in damage potential. Based on these findings, analyses on probable maximum losses in avalanche-prone areas of the municipality of Davos (CH) were used as an indicator for the long-term development of values at risk. Even if the results were subject to significant uncertainties, they underlined the dependency of today's risk on the historical development of land-use: Small changes in the lateral extent of endangered areas had a considerable impact on the exposure of values. In a second step, temporal variations in damage potential between 1950 and 2000 were compared in two different study areas representing typical alpine socio-economic development patterns: Davos (CH) and Galtür (A). The resulting trends were found to be similar; the damage potential increased significantly in number and value. Thus, the development of natural risk in settlements can for a major part be attributed to long-term shifts in damage potential.

Long-term hydrological dynamics and fire history over the last 2000 years in CE Europe reconstructed from a high-resolution peat archive

Sphagnum peatlands in the oceanic-continental transition zone of Poland are currently influenced by climatic and anthropogenic factors that lead to peat desiccation and susceptibility to fire. Little is known about the response of Sphagnum peatland testate amoebae (TA) to the combined effects of drought and fire. To understand the relationships between hydrology and fire dynamics, we used high-resolution multi-proxy palaeoecological data to reconstruct 2000 years of mire history in northern Poland. We employed a new approach for Polish peatlands – joint TA-based water table depth and charcoal-inferred fire activity reconstructions. In addition, the response of most abundant TA hydrological indicators to charcoal-inferred fire activity was assessed. The results show four hydrological stages of peatland development: moderately wet (from ∼35 BC to 800 AD), wet (from ∼800 to 1390 AD), dry (from ∼1390 to 1700 AD) and with an instable water table (from ∼1700 to 2012 AD). Fire activity has increased in the last millennium after constant human presence in the mire surroundings. Higher fire activity caused a rise in the water table, but later an abrupt drought appeared at the onset of the Little Ice Age. This dry phase is characterized by high ash contents and high charcoal-inferred fire activity. Fires preceded hydrological change and the response of TA to fire was indirect. Peatland drying and hydrological instability was connected with TA community changes from wet (dominance of Archerella flavum, Hyalosphenia papilio, Amphitrema wrightianum) to dry (dominance of Cryptodifflugia oviformis, Euglypha rotunda); however, no clear fire indicator species was found. Anthropogenic activities can increase peat fires and cause substantial hydrology changes. Our data suggest that increased human fire activity was one of the main factors that influenced peatland hydrology, though the mire response through hydrological changes towards drier conditions was delayed in relation to the surrounding vegetation changes.

Effectiveness of meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus decolonization in long-term haemodialysis patients: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND Chronic haemodialysis patients are a high-risk population for meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) colonization, which is a precursor of infection. AIM To summarize the effect of nasal (± whole-body wash) MRSA decolonization in haemodialysis patients by means of a systematic review and meta-analysis. METHODS We identified eligible studies using Medline, Embase, the Cochrane database, clinicaltrials.org, and conference abstracts investigating the success of MRSA decolonization in haemodialysis patients. For the statistical analysis, we used Stata 13 to express study-specific proportions with 95% confidence intervals. A likelihood ratio test was used to assess inter-study heterogeneity. FINDINGS Six published prospective cohort studies and one study described in a conference abstract met our inclusion criteria. From 1150 haemodialysis patients enrolled in these studies, MRSA was isolated from nasal swabs of 147 (12.8%) patients. Six of the trials used mupirocin nasal ointment and combined it with chlorhexidine body washes for decolonization. The most widely used protocol was a five-day course of mupirocin nasal ointment application three times a day, and chlorhexidine body wash once daily. The pooled success rate of decolonization was 0.88 (95% confidence interval: 0.75-0.95). A likelihood ratio test of the fixed versus the random-effects model showed significant inter-study heterogeneity (P = 0.047). Four of seven studies determined subsequent MRSA infections in 94 carriers overall, two (2%) of which experienced infection. CONCLUSION The use of mupirocin together with whole-body decolonization is highly effective in eradicating MRSA carriage in haemodialysis patients. The current literature, however, is characterized by a lack of comparative effectiveness studies for this intervention.

Long-term man–environment interactions in the Bolivian Amazon: 8000 years of vegetation dynamics

Only few studies documenting the vegetation history of the Llanos de Moxos, one of the largest seasonally flooded wetland areas in South America, are available and little is known about the environmental impact of pre-Columbian settlements. We use radiocarbon-dated terrestrial plant macrofossils to establish a sound chronology and palynological analyses to reconstruct the vegetation and fire history of the Lago Rogaguado area. The sedimentary pollen and spore record suggests that wetland and wooded savannah (Cerrado) environments occurred around the lake between 8100 and 5800 cal BP. Fire activity was high during this period and was probably connected to the dry Cerrado environments. The pollen evidence suggests early plant cultivation (Zea mays, Annonaceae and Cucurbitaceae) from 6500 cal BP onwards, which is significantly earlier than hitherto assumed for Amazonia. Gallery forests expanded after 5800 cal BP, when fire activity strongly declined. Forest expansion intensified around 2800 cal BP and continued until 2000 cal BP, when forest cover reached its maximum and fire activity its minimum. The late-Holocene forest expansion to the south and the decrease of fire activity may have resulted from a climatic shift to moister conditions (possibly a shorter dry season). New crops (e.g. Avena-type) or adventive plants (e.g. Rumex acetosella-type) document the impact of European economies after ca. 500 cal BP. Land use intensity remained rather stable over the most recent centuries, arguing against a collapse of settlements in response to the arrival of Europeans, as reconstructed from other Amazonian pollen records.

Long-term ticagrelor monotherapy versus standard dual antiplatelet therapy followed by aspirin monotherapy in patients undergoing biolimus-eluting stent implantation: rationale and design of the GLOBAL LEADERS trial

AIMS The GLOBAL LEADERS trial is a superiority study in patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention, with a uniform use of Biolimus A9-eluting stents (BES) and bivalirudin. GLOBAL LEADERS was designed to assess whether a 24-month antithrombotic regimen with ticagrelor and one month of acetylsalicylic acid (ASA), compared to conventional dual antiplatelet therapy (DAPT), improves outcomes. METHODS AND RESULTS Patients (n >16,000) are randomised (1:1 ratio) to ticagrelor 90 mg twice daily for 24 months plus ASA ≤100 mg for one month versus DAPT with either ticagrelor (acute coronary syndrome) or clopidogrel (stable coronary artery disease) for 12 months plus ASA ≤100 mg for 24 months. The primary outcome is a composite of all-cause mortality or non-fatal, new Q-wave myocardial infarction at 24 months. The key safety endpoint is investigator-reported class 3 or 5 bleeding according to the Bleeding Academic Research Consortium (BARC) definitions. Sensitivity analysis will be carried out to explore potential differences in outcome across geographic regions and according to specific angiographic and clinical risk estimates. CONCLUSIONS The GLOBAL LEADERS trial aims to assess the role of ticagrelor as a single antiplatelet agent after a short course of DAPT for the long-term prevention of cardiac adverse events, across a wide spectrum of patients, following BES implantation.