LIMIT THEOREMS FOR A GENERAL STOCHASTIC RUMOUR MODEL

We study a general stochastic rumour model in which an ignorant individual has a certain probability of becoming a stifler immediately upon hearing the rumour. We refer to this special kind of stifler as an uninterested individual. Our model also includes distinct rates for meetings between two spreaders in which both become stiflers or only one does, so that particular cases are the classical Daley-Kendall and Maki-Thompson models. We prove a Law of Large Numbers and a Central Limit Theorem for the proportions of those who ultimately remain ignorant and those who have heard the rumour but become uninterested in it.

Mechanism and model of the oscillatory electro-oxidation of methanol

A mechanism for the kinetic instabilities observed in the galvanostatic electro-oxidation of methanol is suggested and a model developed. The model is investigated using stoichiometric network analysis as well as concepts from algebraic geometry (polynomial rings and ideal theory) revealing the occurrence of a Hopf and a saddle-node bifurcation. These analytical solutions are confirmed by numerical integration of the system of differential equations. (C) 2010 American Institute of Physics

Simulation of Soil Carbon Dynamics under Sugarcane with the CENTURY Model

Currently there is a trend for the expansion of the area cropped with sugarcane (Saccharum officinarum L.), driven by an increase in the world demand for biofuels, due to economical, environmental, and geopolitical issues. Although sugarcane is traditionally harvested by burning dried leaves and tops, the unburned, mechanized harvest has been progressively adopted. The use of process based models is useful in understanding the effects of plant litter in soil C dynamics. The objective of this work was to use the CENTURY model in evaluating the effect of sugarcane residue management in the temporal dynamics of soil C. The approach taken in this work was to parameterize the CENTURY model for the sugarcane crop, to simulate the temporal dynamics of soil C, validating the model through field experiment data, and finally to make predictions in the long term regarding soil C. The main focus of this work was the comparison of soil C stocks between the burned and unburned litter management systems, but the effect of mineral fertilizer and organic residue applications were also evaluated. The simulations were performed with data from experiments with different durations, from 1 to 60 yr, in Goiana and Timbauba, Pernambuco, and Pradopolis, Sao Paulo, all in Brazil; and Mount Edgecombe, Kwazulu-Natal, South Africa. It was possible to simulate the temporal dynamics of soil C (R(2) = 0.89). The predictions made with the model revealed that there is, in the long term, a trend for higher soil C stocks with the unburned management. This increase is conditioned by factors such as climate, soil texture, time of adoption of the unburned system, and N fertilizer management.

Exploitation of a single interface flow system for on-line aqueous biphasic extraction

The exploitation of aqueous biphasic extraction is proposed for the first time in flow analysis This extraction strategy stands out for being environmentally attractive since it is based in the utilization of two immiscible phases that are intrinsically aqueous The organic solvents of the traditional liquid-liquid extractions ale no longer used, being replaced by non-toxic, non-flammable and non-volatile ones. A single interface flow analysis (SIFA) system was implemented to carry out the extraction process due to its favourable operational characteristics that include the high automation level and simplicity of operation, the establishment of a dynamic interface where the mass transfer occurred between the two immiscible aqueous phases, and the versatile control over the extraction process namely the extraction time The application selected to demonstrate the feasibility of SIFA to perform this aqueous biphasic extraction was the pre-concentration of lead. After extraction, lead reacted with 8-hydroxyquinoline-5-sulfonic acid and the resulting product was determined by a fluorimetric detector included in the flow manifold. Therefore, the SIFA single interface was used both as extraction (enrichment) and reaction interface. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved.

Single interface flow analysis with accuracy assessment

Single interface flow systems (SIFA) present some noteworthy advantages when compared to other flow systems, such as a simpler configuration, a more straightforward operation and control and an undemanding optimisation routine. Moreover, the plain reaction zone establishment, which relies strictly on the mutual inter-dispersion of the adjoining solutions, could be exploited to set up multiple sequential reaction schemes providing supplementary information regarding the species under determination. In this context, strategies for accuracy assessment could be favourably implemented. To this end, the sample could be processed by two quasi-independent analytical methods and the final result would be calculated after considering the two different methods. Intrinsically more precise and accurate results would be then gathered. In order to demonstrate the feasibility of the approach, a SIFA system with spectrophotometric detection was designed for the determination of lansoprazole in pharmaceutical formulations. Two reaction interfaces with two distinct pi-acceptors, chloranilic acid (CIA) and 2,3-dichloro-5,6-dicyano-p-benzoquinone (DDQ) were implemented. Linear working concentration ranges between 2.71 x 10(-4) to 8.12 x 10(-4) mol L(-1) and 2.17 x 10(-4) to 8.12 x 10(-4) mol L(-1) were obtained for DDQ and CIA methods, respectively. When compared with the results furnished by the reference procedure, the results showed relative deviations lower than 2.7%. Furthermore. the repeatability was good, with r.s.d. lower than 3.8% and 4.7% for DDQ and CIA methods, respectively. Determination rate was about 30 h(-1). (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Exploiting pi-acceptors for the determination of thyroid hormones (T3 and T4) using a single interface flow system

A fully automated methodology was developed for the determination of the thyroid hormones levothyroxine (T4) and liothyronine (T3). The proposed method exploits the formation of highly coloured charge-transfer (CT) complexes between these compounds, acting as electron donors, and pi-acceptors such as chloranilic acid (CIA) and 2,3-dichloro-5,6-dicyano-p-benzoquinone (DDQ). For automation of the analytical procedure a simple, fast and versatile single interface flow system (SIFA)was implemented guaranteeing a simplified performance optimisation, low maintenance and a cost-effective operation. Moreover, the single reaction interface assured a convenient and straightforward approach for implementing job`s method of continuous variations used to establish the stoichiometry of the formed CT complexes. Linear calibration plots for levothyroxine and liothyronine concentrations ranging from 5.0 x 10(-5) to 2.5 x 10(-4) mol L(-1) and 1.0 x 10(-5) to 1.0 x 10(-4) mol L(-1), respectively, were obtained, with good precision (R.S.D. <4.6% and <3.9%) and with a determination frequency of 26 h(-1) for both drugs. The results obtained for pharmaceutical formulations were statistically comparable to the declared hormone amount with relative deviations lower than 2.1%. The accuracy was confirmed by carrying out recovery studies, which furnished recovery values ranging from 96.3% to 103.7% for levothyroxine and 100.1% for liothyronine. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Single reaction interface flow system for chemiluminescent monitoring of mannitol based on its hydroxyl radical scavenger activity

A single reaction interface flow analysis (SIFA) system for the monitoring of mannitol in pharmaceutical formulations and human urine is presented. The developed approach takes advantage of the mannitol scavenger aptitude to inhibit the chemiluminescent reaction between luminol and myoglobin in the absence of H(2)O(2). The SIFA system facilitated the fully automation of the developed methodology, allowing the in-line reproducible handling of chemical species with a very short lifetime as is the case of the hydroxyl radical generated in the abovementioned luminol/myoglobin reaction. The proposed methodology allowed the determination of mannitol concentrations between 25 mmol L(-1) and 1 mol L(-1), with good precision (R.S.D. < 4.7%, n = 3) and a sampling frequency of about 60 h(-1). The procedure was applied to the determination of mannitol in pharmaceuticals and in human urine samples Without any pretreatment process. The results obtained for pharmaceutical formulations were statistically comparable to those provided by the reference method (R.D. < 4.6%); recoveries values obtained in the analysis of spiked urine samples (between 94.9 and 105.3% of the added amount) were also satisfactory. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Multifractal regime transition in a modified minority game model

The search for more realistic modeling of financial time series reveals several stylized facts of real markets. In this work we focus on the multifractal properties found in price and index signals. Although the usual minority game (MG) models do not exhibit multifractality, we study here one of its variants that does. We show that the nonsynchronous MG models in the nonergodic phase is multifractal and in this sense, together with other stylized facts, constitute a better modeling tool. Using the structure function (SF) approach we detected the stationary and the scaling range of the time series generated by the MG model and, from the linear (non-linear) behavior of the SF we identified the fractal (multifractal) regimes. Finally, using the wavelet transform modulus maxima (WTMM) technique we obtained its multifractal spectrum width for different dynamical regimes. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An opinion dynamics model for the diffusion of innovations

We study the dynamics of the adoption of new products by agents with continuous opinions and discrete actions (CODA). The model is such that the refusal in adopting a new idea or product is increasingly weighted by neighbor agents as evidence against the product. Under these rules, we study the distribution of adoption times and the final proportion of adopters in the population. We compare the cases where initial adopters are clustered to the case where they are randomly scattered around the social network and investigate small world effects on the final proportion of adopters. The model predicts a fat tailed distribution for late adopters which is verified by empirical data. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Multifractality in the random parameter model for multivariate time series

The Random Parameter model was proposed to explain the structure of the covariance matrix in problems where most, but not all, of the eigenvalues of the covariance matrix can be explained by Random Matrix Theory. In this article, we explore the scaling properties of the model, as observed in the multifractal structure of the simulated time series. We use the Wavelet Transform Modulus Maxima technique to obtain the multifractal spectrum dependence with the parameters of the model. The model shows a scaling structure compatible with the stylized facts for a reasonable choice of the parameter values. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Markovian model market-Akerlof`s lemons and the asymmetry of information

In this work we study an agent based model to investigate the role of asymmetric information degrees for market evolution. This model is quite simple and may be treated analytically since the consumers evaluate the quality of a certain good taking into account only the quality of the last good purchased plus her perceptive capacity beta. As a consequence, the system evolves according to a stationary Markov chain. The value of a good offered by the firms increases along with quality according to an exponent alpha, which is a measure of the technology. It incorporates all the technological capacity of the production systems such as education, scientific development and techniques that change the productivity rates. The technological level plays an important role to explain how the asymmetry of information may affect the market evolution in this model. We observe that, for high technological levels, the market can detect adverse selection. The model allows us to compute the maximum asymmetric information degree before the market collapses. Below this critical point the market evolves during a limited period of time and then dies out completely. When beta is closer to 1 (symmetric information), the market becomes more profitable for high quality goods, although high and low quality markets coexist. The maximum asymmetric information level is a consequence of an ergodicity breakdown in the process of quality evaluation. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Land planarians (Platyhelminthes) as a model organism for fine-scale phylogeographic studies: understanding patterns of biodiversity in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest hotspot

The Brazilian Atlantic Forest is one of the richest biodiversity hotspots of the world. Paleoclimatic models have predicted two large stability regions in its northern and central parts, whereas southern regions might have suffered strong instability during Pleistocene glaciations. Molecular phylogeographic and endemism studies show, nevertheless, contradictory results: although some results validate these predictions, other data suggest that paleoclimatic models fail to predict stable rainforest areas in the south. Most studies, however, have surveyed species with relatively high dispersal rates whereas taxa with lower dispersion capabilities should be better predictors of habitat stability. Here, we have used two land planarian species as model organisms to analyse the patterns and levels of nucleotide diversity on a locality within the Southern Atlantic Forest. We find that both species harbour high levels of genetic variability without exhibiting the molecular footprint of recent colonization or population expansions, suggesting a long-term stability scenario. The results reflect, therefore, that paleoclimatic models may fail to detect refugia in the Southern Atlantic Forest, and that model organisms with low dispersal capability can improve the resolution of these models.

THE IMPORTANCE OF DISAGREEING: CONTRARIANS AND EXTREMISM IN THE CODA MODEL

In this paper, we study the effects of introducing contrarians in a model of Opinion Dynamics where the agents have internal continuous opinions, but exchange information only about a binary choice that is a function of their continuous opinion, the CODA model. We observe that the hung election scenario that arises when contrarians are introduced in discrete opinion models still happens. However, it is weaker and it should not be expected in every election. Finally, we also show that the introduction of contrarians make the tendency towards extremism of the original model weaker, indicating that the existence of agents that prefer to disagree might be an important aspect and help society to diminish extremist opinions.

Exercise training reduces cardiac angiotensin II levels and prevents cardiac dysfunction in a genetic model of sympathetic hyperactivity-induced heart failure in mice

The role of exercise training (ET) on cardiac renin-angiotensin system (RAS) was investigated in 3-5 month-old mice lacking alpha(2A-) and alpha(2C-)adrenoceptors (alpha(2A)/alpha(2C)ARKO) that present heart failure (HF) and wild type control (WT). ET consisted of 8-week running sessions of 60 min, 5 days/week. In addition, exercise tolerance, cardiac structural and function analysis were made. At 3 months, fractional shortening and exercise tolerance were similar between groups. At 5 months, alpha(2A)/alpha(2C)ARKO mice displayed ventricular dysfunction and fibrosis associated with increased cardiac angiotensin (Ang) II levels (2.9-fold) and increased local angiotensin-converting enzyme activity (ACE 18%). ET decreased alpha(2A)/alpha(2C)ARKO cardiac Ang II levels and ACE activity to age-matched untrained WT mice levels while increased ACE2 expression and prevented exercise intolerance and ventricular dysfunction with little impact on cardiac remodeling. Altogether, these data provide evidence that reduced cardiac RAS explains, at least in part, the beneficial effects of ET on cardiac function in a genetic model of HF.

Intracellular mechanisms of specific beta-adrenoceptor antagonists involved in improved cardiac function and survival in a genetic model of heart failure

beta-blockers, as class, improve cardiac function and survival in heart failure (HF). However, the molecular mechanisms underlying these beneficial effects remain elusive. In the present study, metoprolol and carvedilol were used in doses that display comparable heart rate reduction to assess their beneficial effects in a genetic model of sympathetic hyperactivity-induced HF (alpha(2A)/alpha(2C)-ARKO mice). Five month-old HF mice were randomly assigned to receive either saline, metoprolol or carvedilol for 8 weeks and age-matched wild-type mice (WT) were used as controls. HF mice displayed baseline tachycardia, systolic dysfunction evaluated by echocardiography, 50% mortality rate, increased cardiac myocyte width (50%) and ventricular fibrosis (3-fold) compared with WT. All these responses were significantly improved by both treatments. Cardiomyocytes from HF mice showed reduced peak [Ca(2+)](i) transient (13%) using confocal microscopy imaging. Interestingly, while metoprolol improved [Ca(2+)](i) transient, carvedilol had no effect on peak [Ca(2+)](i) transient but also increased [Ca(2+)] transient decay dynamics. We then examined the influence of carvedilol in cardiac oxidative stress as an alternative target to explain its beneficial effects. Indeed, HF mice showed 10-fold decrease in cardiac reduced/oxidized glutathione ratio compared with WT, which was significantly improved only by carvedilol treatment. Taken together, we provide direct evidence that the beneficial effects of metoprolol were mainly associated with improved cardiac Ca(2+) transients and the net balance of cardiac Ca(2+) handling proteins while carvedilol preferentially improved cardiac redox state. (C) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.