Tools for testing the Solvency Capital Requirement for life insurance

Longevity risk is one of the major risks that an insurance company or a pension fund has to deal with and it is expected that its importance will grow in the near future. In agreement with these considerations, in Solvency II regulation the Standard formula furnished for calculating the Solvency Capital Requirement explicitly considers this kind of risk. According to the new European rules in our paper we suggest a multiperiod approach to evaluate the SCR for longevity risk. We propose a backtesting framework for measuring the consistency of SCR calculations for life insurance policies.

Voluntary HIV counseling and testing during prenatal care in Brazil

OBJECTIVE: Voluntary HIV counseling and testing are provided to all Brazilian pregnant women with the purpose of reducing mother-to-child HIV transmission. The purpose of the study was to assess characteristics of HIV testing and identify factors associated with HIV counseling and testing. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was carried out comprising 1,658 mothers living in Porto Alegre, Brazil. Biological, reproductive and social variables were obtained from mothers by means of a standardized questionnaire. Being counseling about HIV testing was the dependent variable. Confidence intervals, chi-square test and hierarchical logistic model were used to determine the association between counseling and maternal variables. RESULTS: Of 1,658 mothers interviewed, 1,603 or 96.7% (95% CI: 95.7-97.5) underwent HIV testing, and 51 or 3.1% (95% CI: 2.3-4.0) were not tested. Four (0.2%) refused to undergo testing after counseling. Of 51 women not tested in this study, 30 had undergone the testing previously. Of 1,603 women tested, 630 or 39.3% (95% CI: 36.9-41.7) received counseling, 947 or 59.2% (95% CI: 56.6-61.5) did not, and 26 (1.6%) did not inform. Low income, lack of prenatal care, late beginning of prenatal care, use of rapid testing, and receiving prenatal in the public sector were variables independently associated with a lower probability of getting counseling about HIV testing. CONCLUSIONS: The study findings confirmed the high rate of prenatal HIV testing in Porto Alegre. However, women coming from less privileged social groups were less likely to receive information and benefit from counseling.

Barriers for HIV testing during pregnancy in Southern Brazil

OBJECTIVE: To assess HIV testing rate and determine risk factors for not have been tested during pregnancy. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was carried out in Porto Alegre, Southern Brazil, from December 2000 to February 2001. Socioeconomic, maternal and healthcare variables were obtained by means of a standardized questionnaire. Crude and adjusted odds ratios and their 95% confidence intervals were obtained in logistic regression models. RESULTS: A total of 1,642 mothers were interviewed. Of them, 94.3% reported being offered HIV testing before or during pregnancy or during labor; 89 mothers (5.4%) were not tested or did not know if they were tested. Attending fewer than six prenatal visits, being single and younger than 18 years old were relevant barriers preventing HIV testing. There was found a relationship between maternal schooling and the category of prenatal care provider. Having low 22.20 (12.43-39.67) or high 3.38 (1.86-7.68). schooling and being cared in the private sector strongly reduced the likelihood of being HIV tested. CONCLUSIONS: The Brazilian Health Ministry's recommendation for universal counseling and HIV testing has been successfully implemented in the public sector. In order to improve HIV testing coverage, new strategies need to target women cared in the private sector especially those of low schooling.

Variabilidade genética, conectividade e reiliência de populações de lapas nas ilhas da Macronésia (Atlântico-NE)

Jornadas "Ciência nos Açores – que futuro? Tema Ciências Naturais e Ambiente", Ponta Delgada, 7-8 de Junho de 2013.

Conservation of limpet populations: a heavily exploited resource in Azores, NE-Atlantic

10th International Temperate Reefs Symposium, The University of Western Australia, 12-17 de janeiro.

Sustentabilidade das finanças locais

Dissertação de Mestrado em Ciências Económicas e Empresariais

Reconfiguração das colunas de separação de xilenos

Mestrado em Engenharia Química. Ramo optimização energética na indústria química

Long-term monitoring across elevational gradients to assess ecological hypothesis : a description of standardized sampling methods in oceanic islands and first results

We are launching a long-term study to characterize the biodiversity at different elevations in several Azorean Islands. Our aim is to use the Azores as a model archipelago to answer the fundamental question of what generates and maintains the global spatial heterogeneity of diversity in islands and to be able to understand the dynamics of change across time. An extensive, standardized sampling protocol was applied in most of the remnant forest fragments of five Azorean Islands. Fieldwork followed BRYOLAT methodology for the collection of bryophytes, ferns and other vascular plant species. A modified version of the BALA protocol was used for arthropods. A total of 70 plots (10 m x 10 m) are already established in five islands (Flores, Pico, São Jorge, Terceira and São Miguel), all respecting an elevation step of 200 m, resulting in 24 stations examined in Pico, 12 in Terceira, 10 in Flores, 12 in São Miguel and 12 in São Jorge. The first results regarding the vascular plants inventory include 138 vascular species including taxa from Lycopodiophyta (N=2), Pteridophyta (N=27), Pinophyta (N=2) and Magnoliophyta (N=107). In this contribution we also present the main research question for the next six years within the 2020 Horizon.

HIV testing among pregnant women in Brazil: rates and predictors

OBJECTIVE: To assess rates of offering and uptake of HIV testing and their predictors among women who attended prenatal care. METHODS: A population-based cross-sectional study was conducted among postpartum women (N=2,234) who attended at least one prenatal care visit in 12 cities. Independent and probabilistic samples were selected in the cities studied. Sociodemographic data, information about prenatal care and access to HIV prevention interventions during the current pregnancy were collected. Bivariate and multivariate analyses were carried out to assess independent effects of the covariates on offering and uptake of HIV testing. Data collection took place between November 1999 and April 2000. RESULTS: Overall, 77.5% of the women reported undergoing HIV testing during the current pregnancy. Offering of HIV testing was positively associated with: previous knowledge about prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV; higher number of prenatal care visits; higher level of education and being white. HIV testing acceptance rate was 92.5%. CONCLUSIONS: The study results indicate that dissemination of information about prevention of mother-to-child transmission among women may contribute to increasing HIV testing coverage during pregnancy. Non-white women with lower level of education should be prioritized. Strategies to increase attendance of vulnerable women to prenatal care and to raise awareness among health care workers are of utmost importance.

Beyond the income inequality hypothesis and human health: a worldwide exploration

OBJECTIVE: To analyze whether the relationship between income inequality and human health is mediated through social capital, and whether political regime determines differences in income inequality and social capital among countries. METHODS: Path analysis of cross sectional ecological data from 110 countries. Life expectancy at birth was the outcome variable, and income inequality (measured by the Gini coefficient), social capital (measured by the Corruption Perceptions Index or generalized trust), and political regime (measured by the Index of Freedom) were the predictor variables. Corruption Perceptions Index (an indirect indicator of social capital) was used to include more developing countries in the analysis. The correlation between Gini coefficient and predictor variables was calculated using Spearman's coefficients. The path analysis was designed to assess the effect of income inequality, social capital proxies and political regime on life expectancy. RESULTS: The path coefficients suggest that income inequality has a greater direct effect on life expectancy at birth than through social capital. Political regime acts on life expectancy at birth through income inequality. CONCLUSIONS: Income inequality and social capital have direct effects on life expectancy at birth. The "class/welfare regime model" can be useful for understanding social and health inequalities between countries, whereas the "income inequality hypothesis" which is only a partial approach is especially useful for analyzing differences within countries.

HIV rapid testing as a key strategy for prevention of mother-to-child transmission in Brazil

OBJECTIVE: To assess the feasibility of HIV rapid testing for pregnant women at maternity hospital admission and of subsequent interventions to reduce perinatal HIV transmission. METHODS: Study based on a convenience sample of women unaware of their HIV serostatus when they were admitted to delivery in public maternity hospitals in Rio de Janeiro and Porto Alegre, Brazil, between March 2000 and April 2002. Women were counseled and tested using the Determine HIV1/2 Rapid Test. HIV infection was confirmed using the Brazilian algorithm for HIV infection diagnosis. In utero transmission of HIV was determined using HIV-DNA-PCR. There were performed descriptive analyses of sociodemographic data, number of previous pregnancies and abortions, number of prenatal care visits, timing of HIV testing, HIV rapid test result, neonatal and mother-to-child transmission interventions, by city studied. RESULTS: HIV prevalence in women was 6.5% (N=1,439) in Porto Alegre and 1.3% (N=3.778) in Rio de Janeiro. In Porto Alegre most of women were tested during labor (88.7%), while in Rio de Janeiro most were tested in the postpartum (67.5%). One hundred and forty-four infants were born to 143 HIV-infected women. All newborns but one in each city received at least prophylaxis with oral zidovudine. It was possible to completely avoid newborn exposure to breast milk in 96.8% and 51.1% of the cases in Porto Alegre and Rio de Janeiro, respectively. Injectable intravenous zidovudine was administered during labor to 68.8% and 27.7% newborns in Porto Alegre and Rio de Janeiro, respectively. Among those from whom blood samples were collected within 48 hours of birth, in utero transmission of HIV was confirmed in 4 cases in Rio de Janeiro (4/47) and 6 cases in Porto Alegre (6/79). CONCLUSIONS: The strategy proved feasible in maternity hospitals in Rio de Janeiro and Porto Alegre. Efforts must be taken to maximize HIV testing during labor. There is a need of strong social support to provide this population access to health care services after hospital discharge.

Explicit discrimination and health: development and psychometric properties of an assessment instrument

OBJECTIVE: To develop an instrument to assess discrimination effects on health outcomes and behaviors, capable of distinguishing harmful differential treatment effects from their interpretation as discriminatory events. METHODS: Successive versions of an instrument were developed based on a systematic review of instruments assessing racial discrimination, focus groups and review by a panel comprising seven experts. The instrument was refined using cognitive interviews and pilot-testing. The final version of the instrument was administered to 424 undergraduate college students in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Southeastern Brazil, in 2010. Structural dimensionality, two types of reliability and construct validity were analyzed. RESULTS: Exploratory factor analysis corroborated the hypothesis of the instrument's unidimensionality, and seven experts verified its face and content validity. The internal consistency was 0.8, and test-retest reliability was higher than 0.5 for 14 out of 18 items. The overall score was higher among socially disadvantaged individuals and correlated with adverse health behaviors/conditions, particularly when differential treatments were attributed to discrimination. CONCLUSIONS: These findings indicate the validity and reliability of the instrument developed. The proposed instrument enables the investigation of novel aspects of the relationship between discrimination and health.

Memória de longo prazo nos retornos acionistas dos índices de referência da euronext, implicações para a hipótese de mercados eficientes e contributo fractal para aperfeiçoamento do capital asset pricing model

Não existe uma definição única de processo de memória de longo prazo. Esse processo é geralmente definido como uma série que possui um correlograma decaindo lentamente ou um espectro infinito de frequência zero. Também se refere que uma série com tal propriedade é caracterizada pela dependência a longo prazo e por não periódicos ciclos longos, ou que essa característica descreve a estrutura de correlação de uma série de longos desfasamentos ou que é convencionalmente expressa em termos do declínio da lei-potência da função auto-covariância. O interesse crescente da investigação internacional no aprofundamento do tema é justificado pela procura de um melhor entendimento da natureza dinâmica das séries temporais dos preços dos ativos financeiros. Em primeiro lugar, a falta de consistência entre os resultados reclama novos estudos e a utilização de várias metodologias complementares. Em segundo lugar, a confirmação de processos de memória longa tem implicações relevantes ao nível da (1) modelação teórica e econométrica (i.e., dos modelos martingale de preços e das regras técnicas de negociação), (2) dos testes estatísticos aos modelos de equilíbrio e avaliação, (3) das decisões ótimas de consumo / poupança e de portefólio e (4) da medição de eficiência e racionalidade. Em terceiro lugar, ainda permanecem questões científicas empíricas sobre a identificação do modelo geral teórico de mercado mais adequado para modelar a difusão das séries. Em quarto lugar, aos reguladores e gestores de risco importa saber se existem mercados persistentes e, por isso, ineficientes, que, portanto, possam produzir retornos anormais. O objetivo do trabalho de investigação da dissertação é duplo. Por um lado, pretende proporcionar conhecimento adicional para o debate da memória de longo prazo, debruçando-se sobre o comportamento das séries diárias de retornos dos principais índices acionistas da EURONEXT. Por outro lado, pretende contribuir para o aperfeiçoamento do capital asset pricing model CAPM, considerando uma medida de risco alternativa capaz de ultrapassar os constrangimentos da hipótese de mercado eficiente EMH na presença de séries financeiras com processos sem incrementos independentes e identicamente distribuídos (i.i.d.). O estudo empírico indica a possibilidade de utilização alternativa das obrigações do tesouro (OT’s) com maturidade de longo prazo no cálculo dos retornos do mercado, dado que o seu comportamento nos mercados de dívida soberana reflete a confiança dos investidores nas condições financeiras dos Estados e mede a forma como avaliam as respetiva economias com base no desempenho da generalidade dos seus ativos. Embora o modelo de difusão de preços definido pelo movimento Browniano geométrico gBm alegue proporcionar um bom ajustamento das séries temporais financeiras, os seus pressupostos de normalidade, estacionariedade e independência das inovações residuais são adulterados pelos dados empíricos analisados. Por isso, na procura de evidências sobre a propriedade de memória longa nos mercados recorre-se à rescaled-range analysis R/S e à detrended fluctuation analysis DFA, sob abordagem do movimento Browniano fracionário fBm, para estimar o expoente Hurst H em relação às séries de dados completas e para calcular o expoente Hurst “local” H t em janelas móveis. Complementarmente, são realizados testes estatísticos de hipóteses através do rescaled-range tests R/S , do modified rescaled-range test M - R/S e do fractional differencing test GPH. Em termos de uma conclusão única a partir de todos os métodos sobre a natureza da dependência para o mercado acionista em geral, os resultados empíricos são inconclusivos. Isso quer dizer que o grau de memória de longo prazo e, assim, qualquer classificação, depende de cada mercado particular. No entanto, os resultados gerais maioritariamente positivos suportam a presença de memória longa, sob a forma de persistência, nos retornos acionistas da Bélgica, Holanda e Portugal. Isto sugere que estes mercados estão mais sujeitos a maior previsibilidade (“efeito José”), mas também a tendências que podem ser inesperadamente interrompidas por descontinuidades (“efeito Noé”), e, por isso, tendem a ser mais arriscados para negociar. Apesar da evidência de dinâmica fractal ter suporte estatístico fraco, em sintonia com a maior parte dos estudos internacionais, refuta a hipótese de passeio aleatório com incrementos i.i.d., que é a base da EMH na sua forma fraca. Atendendo a isso, propõem-se contributos para aperfeiçoamento do CAPM, através da proposta de uma nova fractal capital market line FCML e de uma nova fractal security market line FSML. A nova proposta sugere que o elemento de risco (para o mercado e para um ativo) seja dado pelo expoente H de Hurst para desfasamentos de longo prazo dos retornos acionistas. O expoente H mede o grau de memória de longo prazo nos índices acionistas, quer quando as séries de retornos seguem um processo i.i.d. não correlacionado, descrito pelo gBm(em que H = 0,5 , confirmando- se a EMH e adequando-se o CAPM), quer quando seguem um processo com dependência estatística, descrito pelo fBm(em que H é diferente de 0,5, rejeitando-se a EMH e desadequando-se o CAPM). A vantagem da FCML e da FSML é que a medida de memória de longo prazo, definida por H, é a referência adequada para traduzir o risco em modelos que possam ser aplicados a séries de dados que sigam processos i.i.d. e processos com dependência não linear. Então, estas formulações contemplam a EMH como um caso particular possível.

H-NAMe: specifying, implementing and testing a hidden-node avoidance mechanism for wireless sensor networks

The hidden-node problem has been shown to be a major source of Quality-of-Service (QoS) degradation in Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs) due to factors such as the limited communication range of sensor nodes, link asymmetry and the characteristics of the physical environment. In wireless contention-based Medium Access Control protocols, if two nodes that are not visible to each other transmit to a third node that is visible to the formers, there will be a collision – usually called hidden-node or blind collision. This problem greatly affects network throughput, energy-efficiency and message transfer delays, which might be particularly dramatic in large-scale WSNs. This technical report tackles the hidden-node problem in WSNs and proposes HNAMe, a simple yet efficient distributed mechanism to overcome it. H-NAMe relies on a grouping strategy that splits each cluster of a WSN into disjoint groups of non-hidden nodes and then scales to multiple clusters via a cluster grouping strategy that guarantees no transmission interference between overlapping clusters. We also show that the H-NAMe mechanism can be easily applied to the IEEE 802.15.4/ZigBee protocols with only minor add-ons and ensuring backward compatibility with the standard specifications. We demonstrate the feasibility of H-NAMe via an experimental test-bed, showing that it increases network throughput and transmission success probability up to twice the values obtained without H-NAMe. We believe that the results in this technical report will be quite useful in efficiently enabling IEEE 802.15.4/ZigBee as a WSN protocol.

Effect of plug-filling, Testing velocity and temperature on the tensile strength of strap repairs on aluminium structures

In this work, an experimental study was performed on the influence of plug-filling, loading rate and temperature on the tensile strength of single-strap (SS) and double-strap (DS) repairs on aluminium structures. Whilst the main purpose of this work was to evaluate the feasibility of plug-filling for the strength improvement of these repairs, a parallel study was carried out to assess the sensitivity of the adhesive to external features that can affect the repairs performance, such as the rate of loading and environmental temperature. The experimental programme included repairs with different values of overlap length (L O = 10, 20 and 30 mm), and with and without plug-filling, whose results were interpreted in light of experimental evidence of the fracture modes and typical stress distributions for bonded repairs. The influence of the testing speed on the repairs strength was also addressed (considering 0.5, 5 and 25 mm/min). Accounting for the temperature effects, tests were carried out at room temperature (≈23°C), 50 and 80°C. This permitted a comparative evaluation of the adhesive tested below and above the glass transition temperature (T g), established by the manufacturer as 67°C. The combined influence of these two parameters on the repairs strength was also analysed. According to the results obtained from this work, design guidelines for repairing aluminium structures were