Evaluación de la exposición laboral a material particulado en empresas pertenecientes a diferentes sectores económicos en Colombia, 2014

Introducción El material particulado son partículas sólidas y líquidas emitidas al aire, las cuales pueden generar diferentes alteraciones en la salud, variando desde cuadros respiratorios alérgicos, a episodios asmáticos, dermatitis o inclusive llegar a facilitar la génesis de enfermedades de tipo neoplásico. Estos pueden tener origen natural e industrial, encontrandose en diferentes actividades económicas. Objetivo Evaluar la exposición laboral a material particulado en empresas pertenecientes a diferentes sectores económicos afiliadas a una ARL en Colombia, en el periodo comprendido entre 2011 al 2014 Metodología Es un estudio de corte transversal, analizando una base de datos de 257 empresas con 1108 mediciones de material particulado, recolectados entre 2011 – 2014. Las variables usadas fueron: región, actividad económica, área, oficio, tiempo de exposición y concentración de material particulado. Se realizó distribuciones de frecuencia, medidas de tendencia central y de dispersión. Se evaluaron las diferencias de las distribuciones de los tiempos de exposición y el porcentaje de exposición entre los grupos con y sin riesgo (los que sobrepasaban o no los límites permisibles), con la prueba asintótica no paramétrica de Mann Whitney. Resultados Las principales mediciones ambientales en las empresas fueron en la industria química con un 31%, siendo 2 de cada 3 datos pertenecientes a la región andina, las cuales tienen como principales contaminantes químicos las partículas no fraccionadas con el 70,9%. Respecto a las concentraciones ambientales de material particulado en las empresas participantes, se encontró un promedio de 1,72 mg/m3 ± 3,613, con una mediana de 0,480 mg/m3 y un coeficiente de variación de 210,05%. El 2,9% sobrepasaron los valores límites establecidos por la ACGIH (American Conference of Governmental Industrial Hygienists) y el 92,5% según los límites de la EPA (Agencia de Protección del Ambiente), presentando mayor riesgo en el personal operativo con 93,3% (p= 0,002). Conclusión El riesgo según los límites establecidos por la ACGIH para las mediciones realizadas en Colombia fue bajo, aunque al utilizar los parámetros de la EPA, el riesgo fue alto, por lo cual se requiere hacer un seguimiento específico a estas empresas y fomentar la implementación del sistema de gestión en seguridad y salud en el trabajo.

Interdisciplinary modelling

This article examines one approach to promoting creative and flexible use of mathematical ideas within an interdisciplinary context in the primary curriculum, namely, through modelling. Three classes of fifth-grade children worked on a modelling problem, The First Fleet (Australia’s settlement), situated within the curriculum domains of science and studies of society and environment. Reported here are the cycles of development displayed by one group of children as they worked the problem, together with the range of models created across the classes. Children developed mathematisation processes that extended beyond their regular curriculum, including identifying and prioritising key problem elements, exploring relationships among elements, quantifying qualitative data, ranking and aggregating data, and creating and working with weighted scores. Aspects of Goldin’s (2000, 2007) affective structures also appeared to play an important role in the children's mathematical developments.

Micro-family-owned business : transitory survival mechanism or long term wealth creator?

Principal Topic: Entrepreneurship is key to employment, innovation and growth (Acs & Mueller, 2008), and as such, has been the subject of tremendous research in both the economic and management literatures since Solow (1957), Schumpeter (1934, 1943), and Penrose (1959). The presence of entrepreneurs in the economy is a key factor in the success or failure of countries to grow (Audretsch and Thurik, 2001; Dejardin, 2001). Further studies focus on the conditions of existence of entrepreneurship, influential factors invoked are historical, cultural, social, institutional, or purely economic (North, 1997; Thurik 1996 & 1999). Of particular interest, beyond the reasons behind the existence of entrepreneurship, are entrepreneurial survival and good ''performance'' factors. Using cross-country firm data analysis, La Porta & Schleifer (2008) confirm that informal micro-businesses provide on average half of all economic activity in developing countries. They find that these are utterly unproductive compared to formal firms, and conclude that the informal sector serves as a social security net ''keep[ing] millions of people alive, but disappearing over time'' (abstract). Robison (1986), Hill (1996, 1997) posit that the Indonesian government under Suharto always pointed to the lack of indigenous entrepreneurship , thereby motivating the nationalisation of all industries. Furthermore, the same literature also points to the fact that small businesses were mostly left out of development programmes because they were supposed less productive and having less productivity potential than larger ones. Vial (2008) challenges this view and shows that small firms represent about 70% of firms, 12% of total output, but contribute to 25% of total factor productivity growth on average over the period 1975-94 in the industrial sector (Table 10, p.316). ---------- Methodology/Key Propositions: A review of the empirical literature points at several under-researched questions. Firstly, we assess whether there is, evidence of small family-business entrepreneurship in Indonesia. Secondly, we examine and present the characteristics of these enterprises, along with the size of the sector, and its dynamics. Thirdly, we study whether these enterprises underperform compared to the larger scale industrial sector, as it is suggested in the literature. We reconsider performance measurements for micro-family owned businesses. We suggest that, beside productivity measures, performance could be appraised by both the survival probability of the firm, and by the amount of household assets formation. We compare micro-family-owned and larger industrial firms' survival probabilities after the 1997 crisis, their capital productivity, then compare household assets of families involved in business with those who do not. Finally, we examine human and social capital as moderators of enterprises' performance. In particular, we assess whether a higher level of education and community participation have an effect on the likelihood of running a family business, and whether it has an impact on households' assets level. We use the IFLS database compiled and published by RAND Corporation. The data is a rich community, households, and individuals panel dataset in four waves: 1993, 1997, 2000, 2007. We now focus on the waves 1997 and 2000 in order to investigate entrepreneurship behaviours in turbulent times, i.e. the 1997 Asian crisis. We use aggregate individual data, and focus on households data in order to study micro-family-owned businesses. IFLS data covers roughly 7,600 households in 1997 and over 10,000 households in 2000, with about 95% of 1997 households re-interviewed in 2000. Households were interviewed in 13 of the 27 provinces as defined before 2001. Those 13 provinces were targeted because accounting for 83% of the population. A full description of the data is provided in Frankenberg and Thomas (2000), and Strauss et alii (2004). We deflate all monetary values in Rupiah with the World Development Indicators Consumer Price Index base 100 in 2000. ---------- Results and Implications: We find that in Indonesia, entrepreneurship is widespread and two thirds of households hold one or several family businesses. In rural areas, in 2000, 75% of households run one or several businesses. The proportion of households holding both a farm and a non farm business is higher in rural areas, underlining the reliance of rural households on self-employment, especially after the crisis. Those businesses come in various sizes from very small to larger ones. The median business production value represents less than the annual national minimum wage. Figures show that at least 75% of farm businesses produce less than the annual minimum wage, with non farm businesses being more numerous to produce the minimum wage. However, this is only one part of the story, as production is not the only ''output'' or effect of the business. We show that the survival rate of those businesses ranks between 70 and 82% after the 1997 crisis, which contrasts with the 67% survival rate for the formal industrial sector (Ter Wengel & Rodriguez, 2006). Micro Family Owned Businesses might be relatively small in terms of production, they also provide stability in times of crisis. For those businesses that provide business assets figures, we show that capital productivity is fairly high, with rates that are ten times higher for non farm businesses. Results show that households running a business have larger family assets, and households are better off in urban areas. We run a panel logit model in order to test the effect of human and social capital on the existence of businesses among households. We find that non farm businesses are more likely to appear in households with higher human and social capital situated in urban areas. Farm businesses are more likely to appear in lower human capital and rural contexts, while still being supported by community participation. The estimation of our panel data model confirm that households are more likely to have higher family assets if situated in urban area, the higher the education level, the larger the assets, and running a business increase the likelihood of having larger assets. This is especially true for non farm businesses that have a clearly larger and more significant effect on assets than farm businesses. Finally, social capital in the form of community participation also has a positive effect on assets. Those results confirm the existence of a strong entrepreneurship culture among Indonesian households. Investigating survival rates also shows that those businesses are quite stable, even in the face of a violent crisis such as the 1997 one, and as a result, can provide a safety net. Finally, considering household assets - the returns of business to the household, rather than profit or productivity - the returns of business to itself, shows that households running a business are better off. While we demonstrate that uman and social capital are key to business existence, survival and performance, those results open avenues for further research regarding the factors that could hamper growth of those businesses in terms of output and employment.

Management characteristics and the decision to internationalize : Exploration of exporters vs. non-exporters within the Chilean wine industry

The objective of this exploratory study was to identify the key factors that enhance and inhibit the export activities of wineries and identify differences between exporters and non-exporters. Based on data collected from Chilean wineries, the findings of this study suggest that the major constraints for non-exporters are the lack of financial resources, limited quantities of stocks for market expansion, management’s lack of knowledge and experience, and the high cost of travelling and participating in trade shows. In addition, the main international markets for Chilean wineries were not psychically close markets as has been found for Australian or other wine industries. For domestic market oriented wineries cellar door sales were an important source of revenue. Finally, the results show that managers have educational levels and international experience exceeding those of other comparable New World wineries.

Reconceptualizing statistical learning in the early years

This chapter argues for the need to restructure children’s statistical experiences from the beginning years of formal schooling. The ability to understand and apply statistical reasoning is paramount across all walks of life, as seen in the variety of graphs, tables, diagrams, and other data representations requiring interpretation. Young children are immersed in our data-driven society, with early access to computer technology and daily exposure to the mass media. With the rate of data proliferation have come increased calls for advancing children’s statistical reasoning abilities, commencing with the earliest years of schooling (e.g., Langrall et al. 2008; Lehrer and Schauble 2005; Shaughnessy 2010; Whitin and Whitin 2011). Several articles (e.g., Franklin and Garfield 2006; Langrall et al. 2008) and policy documents (e.g., National Council of Teachers ofMathematics 2006) have highlighted the need for a renewed focus on this component of early mathematics learning, with children working mathematically and scientifically in dealing with realworld data. One approach to this component in the beginning school years is through data modelling (English 2010; Lehrer and Romberg 1996; Lehrer and Schauble 2000, 2007)...

Víctimas de un experimento: Conflicto multicultural en el programa de oportunidades

This article presents a reflection of the application of multiculturality principles into tertiary educational programs at the University of Los Andes, Bogota Colombia. The main focus of this paper is debating the concept of 'positive discrimination' as a challenge taken by educational centres in societies with cultural diversity populations.

Corporate fraud culture: Re-examining the corporate governance and performance relation

We analyse the corporate governance and performance relation, when conditioning on corporate fraud, for fraud firms during 2000 – 2007. Fraud firms are identified as either self- reported fraud events, or subject to regulatory investigation. We use the inverse Mills ratio procedure to account for firms' (unobservable) fraud culture in the dynamic system GMM model of the performance- governance relation. We find that corporate governance is an endogenously determined characteristic that has no causal impact on firm performance when conditioning on fraud. Fraud is a significant regulatory event but its overall economic impact at the firm level is highly variable.

Young, gifted and spiritual -The case of Finnish sixth-grade pupils

The aim of this study was to explore the spirituality of Finnish academically gifted 12 13-year old pre-adolescents (N = 101). Their spirituality was investigated through the following three questions: (1) What is their relationship to religion? (2) How do they perceive transcendence? and (3) How does their search for meaning integrate into their lives? A total of 60 girls and 41 boys participated in the study. They attend a special school, Helsingin Suomalainen yhteiskoulu, in Helsinki, Finland. The school includes classes from grade 3 to upper secondary school and has an entrance test. This study is part of a research project called Actualizing Finnish Giftedness which is funded by the Finnish Academy between 2000 2007 and is led by Professor Tirri. The research project is based on Gardner s Multiple Intelligences theory (Gardner 1993) and on Hay s (1998) work on spirituality. The data in this study was gathered in 2003 and 2004. It includes both qualitative and quantitative material. The emphasis is on data gathered with interviews. The mixed method approach was used as the methodological framework for connecting the qualitative content analysis, phenomenological approach and the quantitative tests of this study. The results of the sub-studies are reported in full in the four original articles. First, the articles show that the pupils connect religion mainly with Christian institutions and do not consider religion and spirituality to overlap. Second, the articles show that the pupils believe in God and the interference of God in their lives and they think that reality includes a spiritual dimension. Third, the pupils had four kinds of existentially significant interests: personal, transcendental, cosmic and ethical. Cosmic interests were especially highlighted in the article concerning boys as nature and science were reported to be integral sources for their existential thinking. In addition, perceptions on God seemed to be connected to the individual s perception on the meaning of life. In RE, spiritual development has been a constant topic of interest since the late eighties. Likewise, recently in gifted education there have been discussions concerning spiritual intelligence (Gardner 1999) and spirituality of the gifted (Kerr & Cohn 2001). Based on the empirical results of the study, this study concludes that education wishing to promote spiritual development should aim at being existentially relevant to the pupils and use their existential search as an integrative framework for their individual talents and skills.

Sustainability and Mission Drift in Microfinance

Microfinance institutions (MFIs) are constrained by double bottom-lines: meeting social obligations (the first bottom-line) and obtaining financial self-sufficiency (the second bottom-line). The proponents of the first bottom-line, however, are increasingly concerned that there is a trade-off between these two bottom-lines—i.e., getting hold of financial self-sufficiency may lead MFIs to drift away from their original social mission of serving the very poor, commonly known as mission drift in microfinance which is still a controversial issue. This study aims at addressing the concerns for mission drift in microfinance in a performance analysis framework. Chapter 1 deals with theoretical background, motivation and objectives of the topic. Then the study explores the validity of three major and related present-day concerns. Chapter 2 explores the impact of profitability on outreach-quality in MFIs, commonly known as mission drift, using a unique panel database that contains 4-9 years’ observations from 253 MFIs in 69 countries. Chapter 3 introduces factor analysis, a multivariate tool, in the process of analysing mission drift in microfinance and the exercise in this chapter demonstrates how the statistical tool of factor analysis can be utilised to examine this conjecture. In order to explore why some microfinance institutions (MFIs) perform better than others, Chapter 4 looks at factors which have an impact on several performance indicators of MFIs—profitability or sustainability, repayment status and cost indicators—based on quality-data on 353 institutions in 77 countries. The study also demonstrates whether such mission drift can be avoided while having self-sustainability. In Chapter 5 we examine the impact of capital and financing structure on the performance of microfinance institutions where estimations with instruments have been performed using a panel dataset of 782 MFIs in 92 countries for the period 2000-2007. Finally, Chapter 6 concludes the study by summarising the results from the previous chapters and suggesting some directions for future studies.

Critical leg ischaemia with tissue loss : a challenge for the vascular surgeon

There is a widespread reporting habit of combining the outcomes for patients with rest pain (Fontaine III) and tissue loss (Fontaine IV) under the single category of critical leg ischaemia (CLI). This study focused on patients with ischaemic tissue loss treated with infrainguinal bypass surgery (IBS). All patients included in the study were treated at Helsinki University Central Hospital in 2000-2007. First, ulcer healing time after IBS and factors influencing healing time were prospectively assessed in 2 studies including 148 and 110 patients, respectively. Second,the results of redo IBS were retrospectively evaluated in 593 patients undergoing primary IBS for CLI with tissue loss . Third,long-term outcome were retrospectively analysed in 636 patients who underwent IBS for CLI with tissue loss . Fourth, the outcome of IBS was retrospectively compared with endovascular treatment (PTA) of the infrapopliteal arteries in 1023 CLI patients. Fifth, the influence multidrug resistant Pseudomans aeruginosa (MDR Pa) bacteria contamination in CLI patients treated with IBS was retropectively assessed. Sixty-four patients with positive MDR Pa -culture were matched with 64 MDR Pa - negative controls. Complete ulcer healing rate, including the ischemic ulcers and incisional wounds, was 40% at 6 months after IBS and 75% at one year. Diabetes was a risk factor for prolonged complete ulcer healing time. Ischaemic tissue lesions located in mid-and hindfoot healed poorly. At one year after IBS 50% of the patients were alive with salvaged leg and completely healed ulcers. The absence of gap between tertiary graft patency and leg salvage rates indicates the importance of a patent infrainguinal graft to save a leg with ischaemic tissue loss. Long-term survival for patients with ischaemic tissue loss was poor, 38% at 5 years. Only 30% of the patients were alive without amputation at 5 years. Several of the patient comorbidities increased independently the mortality risk; coronary artery disease, renal insufficiency, chronic obstructive lung disease and high age. When both PTA and bypass is feasible, infrapopliteal PTA as a first-line strategy is expected to achieve similar long-term results to bypass surgery in CLI when redo surgery is actively utilized. MDR Pa in a patient with CLI should be considered as a serious event with increased risk of early major amputation or death. Conclusion: Despite a successful infrainguinal bypass healing of the ischaemic ulcers and incisional wounds ulcer healing is a slow process especially in diabetics. Bypass surgery and PTA improve the outcome of the ischaemic leg but the mortality rate of the patients is high due to their severe comorbidities.

Begränsat tillträde Unga invandrares känsla av tillhörighet i en finlandssvensk kontext

Att ha tillträde till olika arenor i samhället är viktigt, speciellt för unga är känslan av tillhörighet väsentligt för välbefinnandet. I min pro gradu-avhandling synliggör jag de ungas beskrivningar av sina liv och sina erfarenheter av vad det innebär att vara ”invandrare” i Helsingforsregionen med svenska som första främmande språk. Språkkunskaper och förmåga att uttrycka sig samt att använda språket väl blir allt mer relevant i det mångkulturella samhället där människor med olika kulturella bakgrunder möts. Med hjälp av språkkunskaper ges tillträde till den värld som uttrycks och förutsätts via språket. Min teoretiska referensram är förankrad i finländsk och svensk forskning om invandring, tillhörighet, etnicitet och identitetsom tar fasta på ungdomar. Viktiga källor är bland andra Tuomas Martikainen & Lotta Haikkola (2010) och Karmela Liebkind (2000, 2007 m.fl.) Tore Otterups (2005) avhandling om ungdomars flerspråkighet och identitetskonstruktion ger bakgrundskunskap till min studie. Med hjälp av kvalitativa temaintervjuer som undersökningsmetod ger min studie en bild av invandrarungdomarnas uppfattningar, erfarenheter och känslor. De unga som är intervjuade i min pro gradu-avhandling studerar alla vid en svenskspråkig skolinstans i södra Finland. Mina informater är alla födda utanför Finlands gränser och ingendera föräldern är född finländsk, de har alla lärt sig svenska som första främmande språk i Finland. Mitt material består av elva temaintervjuer. De unga i min pro gradu-avhandling poängterar att deras känsla av tillhörighet och tillträde till olika kulturella kontexter är sammankopplat med språkkunskaper. Forskningsresultaten visar att språkkunskaper ger tillträde och ökade möjligheter i det mångkulturella samhället som vi lever i.

A Educação de Jovens e Adultos nos contextos de escolarização e as possibilidades de práticas educativas emancipatórias

A presente pesquisa discute a importância da Educação de Jovens e Adultos (EJA) nos contextos de escolarização buscando, a partir dos Estudos do Cotidiano, compreender os significados que lhes são atribuídos e os aspectos que se apresentam como perspectivas de educação emancipatória. Parte do pressuposto de que professores e alunos tecem, nos cotidianos da EJA, saberesfazeres, especialmente em seus currículos, invisibilizados e silenciados, práticas educativas emancipatórias para além das forças reguladoras das normas (OLIVEIRA, 2003). A construção da análise incorpora observações do cotidiano escolar e entrevistas com professores e alunos de EJA do Ensino Médio da Escola de Ensino Fundamental e Médio Sólon de Lucena, situada em Campina Grande/PB. O desenvolvimento da discussão considera o debate sobre o uso do termo emancipação social à luz dos postulados de Paulo Freire e Boaventura Santos. A abordagem sobre a reconfiguração e ampliação das práticas de educação de jovens e adultos ancora-se nas contribuições de Paiva (1997, 2005, 2009), Haddad (2000, 2007), Di Pierro (2005, 2010), Arroyo (2005), Fávero (2004, 2007). Os estudos sobre cultura contemplados produzem interfaces e conexões com o currículo, especialmente os currículos praticados, a partir dos trabalhos de Giroux (2009), Moreira (2002), Candau (2011), Oliveira (2003, 2009, 2010), entre outros. A tese defende que a educação dialógica, problematizada por Freire, e a valorização de experiências diferenciadas propiciadoras de diálogos e conflitos para a superação da monocultura do saber, proposta por Santos, estão presentes, implicitamente, nas práticas dos professores, na medida em que desenvolvem ações de ruptura com a lógica de submissão da educação bancária, privilegiando a ampliação do diálogo, da comunicação e da emancipação social.

A formação de docentesdiscentes atravessada pelas imagens de professores no cinema como questão curricular.

Compreendendo as imagens e as narrativas como personagens conceituais (DELEUZE, GUATTARI, 1992), neste trabalho, desenvolvi temáticas presentes ou estimuladas com os filmes com personagens de professores e cotidianos escolares. Exibições de filmes, seguidos de conversas entre estudantes do curso de Pedagogia presencial da Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro (campus Maracanã) permitiram a produção do corpus dessa pesquisa, que buscou mapear os mundos culturais, as redes de conhecimentos e significações tecidas por esses estudantes. Assim, as conversas têm sido uma importante metodologia nas pesquisas nos/dos/com os cotidianos, porque segundo Alves (2012), são através delas que trocamos saberesfazeres nos mais variados cotidianos. Contando também com Certeau (1994, 2009), Giard (2009), Maturana (2001, 1998), entre outros, busquei compreender como os cotidianos são organizados através da oralidade, pois na perspectiva de Certeau, Alves e Garcia mapear as ações sujeitas ao esfarelamento, como são características das táticas (CERTEAU, 1994) dos praticantespensantes (OLIVEIRA, 2012) só é possível através das narrativas. Assim, as imagens do cinema permitiram as vivências mais variadas, mostrando sua potência em proporcionar aproximações com situações inusitadas para muitos espectadores, ou ainda, situações de espaçostempos distantes. Os teóricos com quem busquei dialogar acerca dos usos e consumos de imagens audiovisuais foram Machado (2001, 2007), Barbero (2000, 2007) e Deleuze (2005) apostando que intrínseco a esses consumos estariam também implícitos suas subversões e processos formativos. Impactante tornou-se para o grupo envolvido na pesquisa, foi o entendimento dos clichês como potência para o pensamento. Assim, recorrer às imagens dos filmes foi uma forma de abordar as questões que atravessam o chão das escolas e cursos de formação de professores, uma vez que surgiram temáticas tocantes aos cotidianos escolares e saberesfazeres pedagógicos, além daqueles mostrados pelos filmes. Assim, diversas temáticas surgiram entre cinco principais eixos, em torno das relações: entre os docentes e autoridades; entre os discentes; entre os discentes e os docentes; entre os docentes; e os usos dos artefatos culturais e tecnológicos. Todas essas questões envolveram os currículos como sendo tecidos em redes de significações e conhecimentos a partir das compreensões de Alves (2010, 2012a), Carvalho (2012) e Castells (2013). As diferenças que encontramos nos diversos espaçostempos, foram abordadas a partir da presença dos praticantespensantes de várias religiões nas escolas, desenvolvidas com as pesquisas de Caputo (2012), acerca das diferenças nas relações cotidianas entre discentes e docentes, com os trabalhos de Hall (2012), Silva (2012) e Gilroy(2001), pude abordar as tessituras identitárias. Além disso, as pesquisas de Nóvoa (1995), Teixeira (2008) e Müller (2008) foram pertinentes para a compreensão da formação do corpo docente brasileiro e seus atravessamentos de características de cor e gênero. Assim, nesse trabalho, desenvolvo a ideia de que as diferenças nos cotidianos potencializam e ampliam as redes de conhecimentos e significações, bem como os currículos praticadospensados (OLIVEIRA, 2012) nas escolas.

山东省北部沿海区域可持续发展评价与差异研究

目前对区域可持续发展的理论研究很多，具有可操作性的可持续发展评价案例研究较 少。特别是我国沿海地区在跨入21 世纪的转折点上，工业化、城市化加速发展，经济、 社会处于转型之中，生态环境处于极端的压力状态。如何着手从具体区域评价、监测、督 导不同地区可持续发展的状态、水平与进展成为研究的重点。将山东省北部沿海区域作为 一个相对独立的对象，以区域可持续发展评价与区域发展差异研究为主题，以重点探讨研 究区各地区的可持续发展能力变化与比较、造成区域内差异的原因为研究目标。通过对沿 海地区发展过程进行阶段性的评价和再现，审视其发展过程中的得失，对于今后未来发展 有一定的借鉴和指导意义。 本论文共分为八章，各章节自成体系，又相互关联，构成一个整体。其中的第四章可 持续发展评价理论与模型和第五章区域能力评价两个部分有机的结合起来，共同构成一个 大的区域协调发展模型与案例实证。各章具体内容安排如下： 第一章 绪言。主要包括论文的研究背景，研究目的、意义，研究内容，研究方法和 数据来源，技术路线和研究框架，以及主要的研究创新。 第二章 文献综述。综述国内外学者对可持续发展评价指标的研究，以及国内外学者 关于区域经济差异的研究内容、方法，总结已有研究存在的不足。 第三章 山东省北部沿海资源环境-经济-社会系统分析。介绍了研究区的自然环境和资 源概况，并分析了研究10 年的人口增长、社会经济发展方面的特征。分析了山东北部沿 海地区的社会、经济子系统、生态环境子系统的状况其相互关系，指出了山东北部沿海地 区的发展基础及其面临的问题，为后面进行的评价工作打下基础。 第四章 区域可持续发展评价理论与模型研究。通过阐明海岸带可持续发展的基本理 论，从区域人口-资源-环境-经济之间的协同发展的理念与准则，构建区域可持续发展的指 标体系，引出评价的数学模型和标准，并详细介绍了指标权重的确定方法，为下一步区域 可持续发展评价奠定必要的方法论基础。 第五章 区域可持续发展评价实证研究。主要是利用建立的区域可持续发展的指标体 系和评价模型，在此基础上对滨州、东营、潍坊和烟台山东北部沿海地区，进行了10 年 的可持续发展能力评价，比较分析了4 个区域之间发展的异同。 第六章 区域发展不平衡的差异研究。利用区域经济差异理论，以人均GDP 为主指标， 以县区为单位，从产业结构和空间上入手对区域的差异进行了分析；以山东省沿海县域为 单元，对2000-2007 年8 间的差异作了分析，明晰了造成差距的原因。 第七章 区域可持续发展能力建设研究。从沿海地区可持续发展系统的三个方面出发， 提出了针对该地区的资源环境子系统的能力建设，经济子系统的能力建设和社会子系统的 摘要 II 能力建设以及子系统之间协调保障能力建设，并根据评价结果提出了相关的政策建议。 第八章 总结与展望。总结了本论文的主要研究内容和结论，概括了结论的启示意义 和政策含义，并提出本文需要进一步研究的问题和努力方向。 通过山东北部沿海不同地区从1988 年到2007 年的可持续发展程度评价，由评价结果 得出如下结论： 共同点是各地区在资源环境子系统的基础上，经济子系统成为推动可持续发展的 动力。不同点是由于各地区的经济子系统发展的速度与资源环境和社会子系统的 发展速度不一致，因而，表现出了不同的发展变化程度。 4 个地区可持续发展程度都经历了由1998 年的不可持续发展到2007 年的中等可 持续发展。 各个地区的发展速度不一致：从 KSD 的值来判断，滨州市可持续发展能力在整体 上处于中等偏下的可持续发展程度，东营市可持续发展能力在整体上处于弱中等 的可持续发展程度，潍坊市在整体上处于弱的可持续发展程度，烟台市可持续发 展能力在整体上处于中等偏上的可持续发展程度。

Study on the forecast effects of PI method to the north and southwest China

In this paper, the codes of Pattern Informatics (PI) method put forward by Rundle et al. have been worked out according to their algorithm published, and the retrospective forecast of PI method to North China (28.0 degrees-42.0 degrees N, 108.0 degrees-125.0 degrees E) and to Southwest China (22.0 degrees-28.3 degrees N, 98.0 degrees-106.0 degrees E) has been tested. The results show that the hit rates in different regions show a great difference. In Southwest China, 32 earthquakes with M(L)5.0 or larger have occurred during the predicted time period 2000-2007, and 26 out of the 32 earthquakes occurred in or near the hot spots. In North China, the total number of M(L)5.0 or larger was 12 during the predicted time period 2000-2007, and only 3 out of the 12 earthquakes occurred in or near the hot spots. From our results, we hold that if the PI method could be applied to all kinds of regions, the parameters associated with time points and time windows should be chosen carefully to obtain the higher hit rate. We also found that the aftershocks in a strong earthquake sequence affect the PI results obviously. Copyright (c) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.