Estimate of the (R)USLE rainfall erosivity factor from monthly precipitation data in mainland Spain

The need for continuous recording rain gauges makes it difficult to determine the rainfall erosivity factor (R-factor) of the (R)USLE model in areas without good temporal data coverage. In mainland Spain, the Nature Conservation Institute (ICONA) determined the R-factor at few selected pluviographs, so simple estimates of the R-factor are definitely of great interest. The objectives of this study were: (1) to identify a readily available estimate of the R-factor for mainland Spain; (2) to discuss the applicability of a single (global) estimate based on analysis of regional results; (3) to evaluate the effect of record length on estimate precision and accuracy; and (4) to validate an available regression model developed by ICONA. Four estimators based on monthly precipitation were computed at 74 rainfall stations throughout mainland Spain. The regression analysis conducted at a global level clearly showed that modified Fournier index (MFI) ranked first among all assessed indexes. Applicability of this preliminary global model across mainland Spain was evaluated by analyzing regression results obtained at a regional level. It was found that three contiguous regions of eastern Spain (Catalonia, Valencian Community and Murcia) could have a different rainfall erosivity pattern, so a new regression analysis was conducted by dividing mainland Spain into two areas: Eastern Spain and plateau-lowland area. A comparative analysis concluded that the bi-areal regression model based on MFI for a 10-year record length provided a simple, precise and accurate estimate of the R-factor in mainland Spain. Finally, validation of the regression model proposed by ICONA showed that R-ICONA index overpredicted the R-factor by approximately 19%.

Performance of protective factors assessment in risk prediction for adults: systematic review and meta-analysis

Protective factors are neglected in risk assessment in adult psychiatric and criminal justice populations. This review investigated the predictive efficacy of selected tools that assess protective factors. Five databases were searched using comprehensive terms for records up to June 2014, resulting in 17 studies (n = 2,198). Results were combined in a multilevel meta-analysis using the R (R Core Team, R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria: R Foundation for Statistical Computing, 2015) metafor package (Viechtbauer, Journal of Statistical Software, 2010, 36, 1). Prediction of outcomes was poor relative to a reference category of violent offending, with the exception of prediction of discharge from secure units. There were no significant differences between the predictive efficacy of risk scales, protective scales, and summary judgments. Protective factor assessment may be clinically useful, but more development is required. Claims that use of these tools is therapeutically beneficial require testing.

Effort-reward imbalance at work and the co-occurrence of lifestyle risk factors: cross-sectional survey in a sample of 36,127 public sector employees

Background In occupational life, a mismatch between high expenditure of effort and receiving few rewards may promote the co-occurrence of lifestyle risk factors, however, there is insufficient evidence to support or refute this hypothesis. The aim of this study is to examine the extent to which the dimensions of the Effort-Reward Imbalance (ERI) model – effort, rewards and ERI – are associated with the co-occurrence of lifestyle risk factors. Methods Based on data from the Finnish Public Sector Study, cross-sectional analyses were performed for 28,894 women and 7233 men. ERI was conceptualized as a ratio of effort and rewards. To control for individual differences in response styles, such as a personal disposition to answer negatively to questionnaires, occupational and organizational -level ecological ERI scores were constructed in addition to individual-level ERI scores. Risk factors included current smoking, heavy drinking, body mass index ≥25 kg/m2, and physical inactivity. Multinomial logistic regression models were used to estimate the likelihood of having one risk factor, two risk factors, and three or four risk factors. The associations between ERI and single risk factors were explored using binary logistic regression models. Results After adjustment for age, socioeconomic position, marital status, and type of job contract, women and men with high ecological ERI were 40% more likely to have simultaneously ≥3 lifestyle risk factors (vs. 0 risk factors) compared with their counterparts with low ERI. When examined separately, both low ecological effort and low ecological rewards were also associated with an elevated prevalence of risk factor co-occurrence. The results obtained with the individual-level scores were in the same direction. The associations of ecological ERI with single risk factors were generally less marked than the associations with the co-occurrence of risk factors. Conclusion This study suggests that a high ratio of occupational efforts relative to rewards may be associated with an elevated risk of having multiple lifestyle risk factors. However, an unexpected association between low effort and a higher likelihood of risk factor co-occurrence as well as the absence of data on overcommitment (and thereby a lack of full test of the ERI model) warrant caution in regard to the extent to which the entire ERI model is supported by our evidence.

Sexual Activity Without Condoms and Risk of HIV Transmission in Serodifferent Couples When the HIV-Positive Partner Is Using Suppressive Antiretroviral Therapy

Importance A key factor in assessing the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of antiretroviral therapy (ART) as a prevention strategy is the absolute risk of HIV transmission through condomless sex with suppressed HIV-1 RNA viral load for both anal and vaginal sex. Objective To evaluate the rate of within-couple HIV transmission (heterosexual and men who have sex with men [MSM]) during periods of sex without condoms and when the HIV-positive partner had HIV-1 RNA load less than 200 copies/mL. Design, Setting, and Participants The prospective, observational PARTNER (Partners of People on ART-A New Evaluation of the Risks) study was conducted at 75 clinical sites in 14 European countries and enrolled 1166 HIV serodifferent couples (HIV-positive partner taking suppressive ART) who reported condomless sex (September 2010 to May 2014). Eligibility criteria for inclusion of couple-years of follow-up were condomless sex and HIV-1 RNA load less than 200 copies/mL. Anonymized phylogenetic analysis compared couples' HIV-1 polymerase and envelope sequences if an HIV-negative partner became infected to determine phylogenetically linked transmissions. Exposures Condomless sexual activity with an HIV-positive partner taking virally suppressive ART. Main Outcomes and Measures Risk of within-couple HIV transmission to the HIV-negative partner. Results Among 1166 enrolled couples, 888 (mean age, 42 years [IQR, 35-48]; 548 heterosexual [61.7%] and 340 MSM [38.3%]) provided 1238 eligible couple-years of follow-up (median follow-up, 1.3 years [IQR, 0.8-2.0]). At baseline, couples reported condomless sex for a median of 2 years (IQR, 0.5-6.3). Condomless sex with other partners was reported by 108 HIV-negative MSM (33%) and 21 heterosexuals (4%). During follow-up, couples reported condomless sex a median of 37 times per year (IQR, 15-71), with MSM couples reporting approximately 22 000 condomless sex acts and heterosexuals approximately 36 000. Although 11 HIV-negative partners became HIV-positive (10 MSM; 1 heterosexual; 8 reported condomless sex with other partners), no phylogenetically linked transmissions occurred over eligible couple-years of follow-up, giving a rate of within-couple HIV transmission of zero, with an upper 95% confidence limit of 0.30/100 couple-years of follow-up. The upper 95% confidence limit for condomless anal sex was 0.71 per 100 couple-years of follow-up. Conclusions and Relevance Among serodifferent heterosexual and MSM couples in which the HIV-positive partner was using suppressive ART and who reported condomless sex, during median follow-up of 1.3 years per couple, there were no documented cases of within-couple HIV transmission (upper 95% confidence limit, 0.30/100 couple-years of follow-up). Additional longer-term follow-up is necessary to provide more precise estimates of risk.

Bullying Involvement and Adolescent Substance Use: A Study of Multilevel Risk and Protective Factors

Thesis (Master, Psychology) -- Queen's University, 2016-08-02 13:18:40.65

The Influence Of The Environment On The Development Of Thyroid Tumors: A New Appraisal.

Most epidemiological studies concerning differentiated thyroid cancers (DTC) indicate an increasing incidence over the last two decades. This increase might be partially explained by the better access to health services worldwide, but clinicopathological analyses do not fully support this hypothesis, indicating that there are carcinogenetic factors behind this noticeable increasing incidence. Although we have undoubtedly understood the biology and molecular pathways underlying thyroid carcinogenesis in a better way, we have made very little progresses in identifying a risk profile for DTC, and our knowledge of risk factors is very similar to what we knew 30-40 years ago. In addition to ionizing radiation exposure, the most documented and established risk factor for DTC, we also investigated the role of other factors, including eating habits, tobacco smoking, living in a volcanic area, xenobiotics, and viruses, which could be involved in thyroid carcinogenesis, thus, contributing to the increase in DTC incidence rates observed.

Methodology of a nationwide cross-sectional survey of prevalence and epidemiological patterns of hepatitis A, B and C infection in Brazil

Um inquérito de base populacional foi conduzido na população urbana de todas as capitais e do Distrito Federal no Brasil para fornecer informações sobre a prevalência de hepatites virais e fatores de risco, entre 2005 e 2009. Este artigo descreve o delineamento e a metodologia do estudo que envolveu a população com idade entre 5 e 19 anos para hepatite A e 10 a 69 anos para hepatite B e C. As entrevistas e amostras de sangue foram obtidas através de visitas domiciliares e a amostra selecionada a partir de uma amostragem estratificada em múltiplos estágios (por conglomerado) com igual probabilidade para cada domínio de estudo (região e faixa etária). Nacionalmente, 19.280 residências e ~31.000 indivíduos foram selecionados. O tamanho da amostra foi suficiente para detectar uma prevalência em torno de 0,1% e para avaliar os fatores de risco por região. A metodologia apresentou-se viável para distinguir entre diferentes padrões epidemiológicos da hepatite A, B e C. Estes dados serão de valia para a avaliação das políticas de vacinação e para o desenho de estratégias de controle.

Estimating cardiovascular risk in patients with type 2 diabetes: a national multicenter study in Brazil

According to Brazilian National Data Survey diabetes is the fifth cause for hospitalization and is one of the ten major causes of mortality in this country. Aims to stratify the estimated cardiovascular risk (eCVR) in a population of type 2 diabetics (T2DM) according to the Framingham prediction equations as well as to determine the association between eCVR with metabolic and clinical control of the disease. Methods From 2000 to 2001 a cross-sectional multicenter study was conducted in 13 public out-patients diabetes/endocrinology clinics from 8 Brazilian cities. The 10-year risk of developing coronary heart disease (CHD) was estimated by the prediction equations described by Wilson et al (Circulation 1998). LDL equations were preferably used; when patients missed LDL data we used total cholesterol equations instead. Results Data from 1382 patients (59.0% female) were analyzed. Median and inter-quartile range (IQ) of age and duration of diabetes were 57.4 (51-65) and 8.8 (3-13) years, respectively without differences according to the gender. Forty-two percent of these patients were overweight and 35.4% were obese (the prevalence of higher BMI and obesity in this T2DM group was significantly higher in women than in men; p < 0.001). The overall estimated eCVR in T2DM patients was 21.4 (13.5-31.3). The eCVR was high (> 20%) in 738 (53.4%), intermediate in 202 (14.6%) and low in 442 (32%) patients. Men [25.1(15.4-37.3)] showed a higher eCVR than women [18.8 (12.4-27.9) p < 0.001]. The most common risk factor was high LDL-cholesterol (80.8%), most frequently found in women than in men (p = 0.01). The median of risk factors present was three (2-4) without gender differences. Overall we observed that 60 (4.3%) of our patients had none, 154(11.1%) one, 310 (22.4%) two, 385 (27.9%) three, 300 (21.7%) four, 149 (10.5%) five and six, (2%) six risk factors. A higher eCVR was noted in overweight or obese patients (p = 0.01 for both groups). No association was found between eCVR with age or a specific type of diabetes treatment. A correlation was found between eCVR and duration of diabetes (p < 0.001), BMI (p < 0.001), creatinine (p < 0.001) and triglycerides levels (p < 0.001) but it was not found with HbA1c, fasting blood glucose and postprandial glucose. A higher eCVR was observed in patients with retinopathy (p < 0.001) and a tendency in patients with microalbuminuria (p = 0.06). Conclusion: our study showed that in this group of Brazilian T2DM the eCVR was correlated with the lipid profile and it was higher in patients with microvascular chronic complications. No correlation was found with glycemic control parameters. These data could explain the failure of intensive glycemic control programs aiming to reduce cardiovascular events observed in some studies.

Genetic Variants of Diabetes Risk and Incident Cardiovascular Events in Chronic Coronary Artery Disease

Objective: To determine whether information from genetic risk variants for diabetes is associated with cardiovascular events incidence. Methods: From the about 30 known genes associated with diabetes, we genotyped single-nucleotide polymorphisms at the 10 loci most associated with type-2 diabetes in 425 subjects from the MASS-II Study, a randomized study in patients with multi-vessel coronary artery disease. The combined genetic information was evaluated by number of risk alleles for diabetes. Performance of genetic models relative to major cardiovascular events incidence was analyzed through Kaplan-Meier curve comparison and Cox Hazard Models and the discriminatory ability of models was assessed for cardiovascular events by calculating the area under the ROC curve. Results: Genetic information was able to predict 5-year incidence of major cardiovascular events and overall-mortality in non-diabetic individuals, even after adjustment for potential confounders including fasting glycemia. Non-diabetic individuals with high genetic risk had a similar incidence of events then diabetic individuals (cumulative hazard of 33.0 versus 35.1% of diabetic subjects). The addition of combined genetic information to clinical predictors significantly improved the AUC for cardiovascular events incidence (AUC = 0.641 versus 0.610). Conclusions: Combined information of genetic variants for diabetes risk is associated to major cardiovascular events incidence, including overall mortality, in non-diabetic individuals with coronary artery disease.

Modeling the risk of malaria for travelers to areas with stable malaria transmission

Background: Malaria is an important threat to travelers visiting endemic regions. The risk of acquiring malaria is complex and a number of factors including transmission intensity, duration of exposure, season of the year and use of chemoprophylaxis have to be taken into account estimating risk. Materials and methods: A mathematical model was developed to estimate the risk of non-immune individual acquiring falciparum malaria when traveling to the Amazon region of Brazil. The risk of malaria infection to travelers was calculated as a function of duration of exposure and season of arrival. Results: The results suggest significant variation of risk for non-immune travelers depending on arrival season, duration of the visit and transmission intensity. The calculated risk for visitors staying longer than 4 months during peak transmission was 0.5% per visit. Conclusions: Risk estimates based on mathematical modeling based on accurate data can be a valuable tool in assessing risk/benefits and cost/benefits when deciding on the value of interventions for travelers to malaria endemic regions.

Optimal irrigation depth for bean crops considering water constraints and farmer`s risk aversion level

Nowadays, the rising competition for the use of water and environmental resources with consequent restrictions for farmers should change the paradigm in terms of irrigation concepts, or rather, in order to attain economical efficiency other than to supply water requirement for the crop. Therefore, taking into account the social and economical role of bean activity in Brazil, as well as the risk inherent to crop due to its high sensibility to both deficit and excessive water, the optimization methods regarding to irrigation management have become more interesting and essential. This study intends to present a way to determine the optimal water supply, considering different combinations between desired bean yield and level of risk, bringing as a result a graph with the former associated with the latter, depending on different water depths.

Changing patterns of coronary heart disease in the hunter region of New South Wales, Australia

A population-based observational study of men acid women aged 35-69 years in the Hunter Region of New South Wales, Australia, was conducted to assess the impact. of risk-factor modification and increased drug therapy on the trends in major coronary events and case fatality. From 1985 to 1993, there were 3006 coronary deaths and 6450 nonfatal major coronary events. Rates of death and nonfatal myocardial infarction declined, but there was an increase in hospital admissions for prolonged chess pain. Reductions in cigarette smoking, diastolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, and increased use of aspirin can fully explain the 3.3% (95% confidence interval [CI] 2.4, 4.2) average annual reduction in rates of major coronary events for men and the 4.1% (95% CI 2.7, 5.5) reduction for women. In contrast, increased use of aspirin, beta-blockers, fibrinolytic therapy, and angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors explain less than hall of the 8.9% (95% CI 5.9, 11.8) and 6.9% (95% CI 2.7, 10.9) average annual reduction in case fatality in hospital for men and women, respectively. These trends suggest a decline in severity of coronary heart disease consistent with reductions in risk-factor levels and improved acute medical treatment. J CLIN EPIDEMIOL 52;8:761-771, 1999. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Inc.

Assessment of image quality of a standard and two dose-reducing protocols in paediatric pelvic CT

Background: Concerns exist regarding the effect of radiation dose from paediatric pelvic CT scans and the potential later risk of radiation-induced neoplasm and teratogenic outcomes in these patients. Objective: To assess the diagnostic quality of CT images of the paediatric pelvis using either reduced mAs or increased pitch compared with standard settings. Materials and methods: A prospective study of pelvic CT scans of 105 paediatric patients was performed using one of three protocols: (1) 31 at a standard protocol of 200 mA with rotation time of 0.75 s at 120 kVp and a pitch factor approximating 1.4; (2) 31 at increased pitch factor approaching 2 and 200 mA; and (3) 43 at a reduced setting of 100 mA and a pitch factor of 1.4. All other settings remained the same in all three groups. Image quality was assessed by radiologists blinded to the protocol used in each scan. Results: No significant difference was found between the quality of images acquired at standard settings and those acquired at half the standard mAs. The use of increased pitch factor resulted in a higher proportion of poor images. Conclusions: Images acquired at 120 kVp using 75 mAs are equivalent in diagnostic quality to those acquired at 150 mAs. Reduced settings can provide useful imaging of the paediatric pelvis and should be considered as a standard protocol in these situations.

Impact of the Subprime Crisis in the Provision of Credit Risk of Major National Banks

Financial institutions are directly exposed to the credit risk, that is, the risk of the borrower not fulfill with their obligations, paying their debts in its stated periods established previously. The bank predict this type of risk, including them in their balance-sheets. In 2006/2007 there was the impact of a new financial crisis that spread around the world, known as the crisis of subprime. The objective of this study is to analyze if the provisions for credit risk or liquidation increased the sprouting of the crisis of subprime in ten major national banks, chosen accordant to their total assets. To answer this question, the balance-sheets of each one of these banks in the period of 2005 to 2007 were analyzed. This research is characterized, as for its objectives, as descriptive and as for the procedures as documentary research. It is also characterized as having a qualitative approach. The results show that the crisis of subprime has caused little impact in the credit risk provision of the analyzed institutions. It was noticed a slight increase in the provision indicators at the peak of the crisis in 2006. These percentages were reduced in, 2007, probably reflecting the economic stability of Brazil and the stagnation of the crisis Of subprime in that year, at least in relation to in our country.

Risk Categories Disclosed in the Administration Reports of Brazilian Companies with ADRs

The study aims to find the categories of risks disclosed in the Administration Reports of Brazilian companies with the issuance of ADR`s. The research is characterized as descriptive, accomplished through doucmentary analysis. The sample includes 28 Brazilian companies with the issuance of American Depository Receipt (ADR`s) in the Stock Exchange of New York (USA). We have tried to identify the categories of risk, presented by the companies surveyed in the Administration Reports (AR) of 2007. Seven categories of corporate risks were considered, identified through COSO (2004) methodology strategic risks, operational risks, legal risks and image risks,. The survey results show that in general there is no standaardization of the types sof risks disclosed by the companies. A total of 14 types of risks havd been identified. The predominant category in the disclosure was the operational risk, with 20.72% of the observations. There was no disclosre of image risk in the AR of the companies surveyed. It was found that 19 companies, 67.86% of the surveyed companies, demonstrate some kind of risk to which they are exposed. On the other hand, nine companies (32.14%) did not show any kind of risk.