983 resultados para Estimation par maximum de vraisemblance
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Mémoire numérisé par la Direction des bibliothèques de l'Université de Montréal.
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Thèse numérisée par la Direction des bibliothèques de l'Université de Montréal.
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Mémoire numérisé par la Direction des bibliothèques de l'Université de Montréal.
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A recently developed technique for determining past sea surface temperatures (SST), based on an analysis of the unsaturation ratio of long chain C37 methyl alkenones produced by Prymnesiophyceae phytoplankton (U37 k' ), has been applied to an upper Quaternary sediment core from the equatorial Atlantic. U37 k' temperature estimates were compared to those obtained from delta18O of the planktonic foraminifer Globigerinoides sacculifer and of planktonic foraminiferal assemblages for the last glacial cycle. The alkenone method showed 1.8°C cooling at the last glacial maximum, about 1/2 to 1/3 of the decrease shown by the isotopic method (6.3°C) and foraminiferal modern analogue technique estimates for the warm season (3.8°C). Warm season foraminiferal assemblage estimates based on transfer functions are out of phase with the other estimates, showing a 1.4°C drop at the last glacial maximum with an additional 0.9°C drop in the deglaciation. Increased alkenone abundances, total organic carbon percentage and foraminiferal accumulation rates in the last glaciation indicate an increase in productivity of as much as 4 times over present day. These changes are thought to be due to increased upwelling caused by enhanced winds during the glaciation. If U37 k' estimates are correct, as much as 50-70% (up to 4.5°C) of estimated delta18O and modern analogue temperature changes in the last glaciation may have been due to changes in thermocline depth, whereas transfer functions seem more strongly influenced by seasonality changes. This indicates these estimates may be influenced as strongly by other factors as they are by SST, which in the equatorial Atlantic was only reduced slightly in the last glaciation.
L'impact du glissement en fréquence lors de l'accélération directe d'électrons par le faisceau laser
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L’accélération directe d’électrons par des impulsions ultrabrèves de polarisation radiale fortement focalisées démontre un grand potentiel, notamment, pour la production de paquets d’électrons ultrabrefs. Plusieurs aspects de ce schéma d’accélération restent toutefois à être explorés pour en permettre une maîtrise approfondie. Dans le cadre du présent mémoire, on s’intéresse à l’ajout d’une dérive de fréquence au champ de l’impulsion TM01 utilisée. Les expressions exactes des composantes du champ électromagnétique de l’impulsion TM01 sont établies à partir d’une généralisation du spectre de Poisson. Il s’agit, à notre connaissance, du premier modèle analytique exact pour la description d’une impulsion avec une dérive de fréquence. Ce modèle est utilisé pour étudier l’impact du glissement en fréquence sur le schéma d’accélération, grâce à des simulations “particule test” unidimensionnelles, considérant en premier lieu une énergie constante par impulsion, puis un champ maximum constant. Les résultats révèlent que le glissement en fréquence diminue le gain en énergie maximum atteignable dans le cadre du schéma d’accélération à l’étude ; une baisse d’efficacité de plusieurs dizaines de pourcents peut survenir. De plus, les simulations mettent en évidence certaines différences reliées à l’utilisation d’impulsions avec une dérive vers les basses fréquences ou avec une dérive vers les hautes fréquences : il se trouve que, pour un glissement en fréquence de même grandeur, l’impulsion avec une dérive vers les basses fréquences conduit à un gain en énergie cinétique maximum plus élevé pour l’électron que l’impulsion avec une dérive vers les hautes fréquences.
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Ce mémoire présente deux algorithmes qui ont pour but d’améliorer la précision de l’estimation de la direction d’arrivée de sources sonores et de leurs échos. Le premier algorithme, qui s’appelle la méthode par élimination des sources, permet d’améliorer l’estimation de la direction d’arrivée d’échos qui sont noyés dans le bruit. Le second, qui s’appelle Multiple Signal Classification à focalisation de phase, utilise l’information dans la phase à chaque fréquence pour déterminer la direction d’arrivée de sources à large bande. La combinaison de ces deux algorithmes permet de localiser des échos dont la puissance est de -17 dB par rapport à la source principale, jusqu’à un rapport échoà- bruit de -15 dB. Ce mémoire présente aussi des mesures expérimentales qui viennent confirmer les résultats obtenus lors de simulations.
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Résumé : L'imagerie par résonance magnétique pondérée en diffusion est une modalité unique sensible aux mouvements microscopiques des molécules d'eau dans les tissus biologiques. Il est possible d'utiliser les caractéristiques de ce mouvement pour inférer la structure macroscopique des faisceaux de la matière blanche du cerveau. La technique, appelée tractographie, est devenue l'outil de choix pour étudier cette structure de façon non invasive. Par exemple, la tractographie est utilisée en planification neurochirurgicale et pour le suivi du développement de maladies neurodégénératives. Dans cette thèse, nous exposons certains des biais introduits lors de reconstructions par tractographie, et des méthodes sont proposées pour les réduire. D'abord, nous utilisons des connaissances anatomiques a priori pour orienter la reconstruction. Ainsi, nous montrons que l'information anatomique sur la nature des tissus permet d'estimer des faisceaux anatomiquement plausibles et de réduire les biais dans l'estimation de structures complexes de la matière blanche. Ensuite, nous utilisons des connaissances microstructurelles a priori dans la reconstruction, afin de permettre à la tractographie de suivre le mouvement des molécules d'eau non seulement le long des faisceaux, mais aussi dans des milieux microstructurels spécifiques. La tractographie peut ainsi distinguer différents faisceaux, réduire les erreurs de reconstruction et permettre l'étude de la microstructure le long de la matière blanche. Somme toute, nous montrons que l'utilisation de connaissances anatomiques et microstructurelles a priori, en tractographie, augmente l'exactitude des reconstructions de la matière blanche du cerveau.
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Abstract : Images acquired from unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) can provide data with unprecedented spatial and temporal resolution for three-dimensional (3D) modeling. Solutions developed for this purpose are mainly operating based on photogrammetry concepts, namely UAV-Photogrammetry Systems (UAV-PS). Such systems are used in applications where both geospatial and visual information of the environment is required. These applications include, but are not limited to, natural resource management such as precision agriculture, military and police-related services such as traffic-law enforcement, precision engineering such as infrastructure inspection, and health services such as epidemic emergency management. UAV-photogrammetry systems can be differentiated based on their spatial characteristics in terms of accuracy and resolution. That is some applications, such as precision engineering, require high-resolution and high-accuracy information of the environment (e.g. 3D modeling with less than one centimeter accuracy and resolution). In other applications, lower levels of accuracy might be sufficient, (e.g. wildlife management needing few decimeters of resolution). However, even in those applications, the specific characteristics of UAV-PSs should be well considered in the steps of both system development and application in order to yield satisfying results. In this regard, this thesis presents a comprehensive review of the applications of unmanned aerial imagery, where the objective was to determine the challenges that remote-sensing applications of UAV systems currently face. This review also allowed recognizing the specific characteristics and requirements of UAV-PSs, which are mostly ignored or not thoroughly assessed in recent studies. Accordingly, the focus of the first part of this thesis is on exploring the methodological and experimental aspects of implementing a UAV-PS. The developed system was extensively evaluated for precise modeling of an open-pit gravel mine and performing volumetric-change measurements. This application was selected for two main reasons. Firstly, this case study provided a challenging environment for 3D modeling, in terms of scale changes, terrain relief variations as well as structure and texture diversities. Secondly, open-pit-mine monitoring demands high levels of accuracy, which justifies our efforts to improve the developed UAV-PS to its maximum capacities. The hardware of the system consisted of an electric-powered helicopter, a high-resolution digital camera, and an inertial navigation system. The software of the system included the in-house programs specifically designed for camera calibration, platform calibration, system integration, onboard data acquisition, flight planning and ground control point (GCP) detection. The detailed features of the system are discussed in the thesis, and solutions are proposed in order to enhance the system and its photogrammetric outputs. The accuracy of the results was evaluated under various mapping conditions, including direct georeferencing and indirect georeferencing with different numbers, distributions and types of ground control points. Additionally, the effects of imaging configuration and network stability on modeling accuracy were assessed. The second part of this thesis concentrates on improving the techniques of sparse and dense reconstruction. The proposed solutions are alternatives to traditional aerial photogrammetry techniques, properly adapted to specific characteristics of unmanned, low-altitude imagery. Firstly, a method was developed for robust sparse matching and epipolar-geometry estimation. The main achievement of this method was its capacity to handle a very high percentage of outliers (errors among corresponding points) with remarkable computational efficiency (compared to the state-of-the-art techniques). Secondly, a block bundle adjustment (BBA) strategy was proposed based on the integration of intrinsic camera calibration parameters as pseudo-observations to Gauss-Helmert model. The principal advantage of this strategy was controlling the adverse effect of unstable imaging networks and noisy image observations on the accuracy of self-calibration. The sparse implementation of this strategy was also performed, which allowed its application to data sets containing a lot of tie points. Finally, the concepts of intrinsic curves were revisited for dense stereo matching. The proposed technique could achieve a high level of accuracy and efficiency by searching only through a small fraction of the whole disparity search space as well as internally handling occlusions and matching ambiguities. These photogrammetric solutions were extensively tested using synthetic data, close-range images and the images acquired from the gravel-pit mine. Achieving absolute 3D mapping accuracy of 11±7 mm illustrated the success of this system for high-precision modeling of the environment.
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The aim of this report is to provide biomass estimates (AFDW, g.m-2 ) of the four main components of the benthic food web in the southern part of the Bay of St-Brieuc: suspension-feeders, deposit-feeders, herbivores and carnivores. Patterns in the environmental data (i.e., sedimentary characters) are first analysed, and then related to the spatial distribution of communities ; both approaches use classical ordination techniques (PCA, correspondence analysis). A second typology, based on a review of published litterature concerning coastal macrozoobenthos feeding, ascribes each taxonomic unit to a trophic group. Finally, quantitative results are thus given per biota ; suspension-feeders appear to dominate (in terms of biomass) most of fine-sand habitats of the studied area.
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The main purpose of this study is to present an alternative benchmarking approach that can be used by national regulators of utilities. It is widely known that the lack of sizeable data sets limits the choice of the benchmarking method and the specification of the model to set price controls within incentive-based regulation. Ill-posed frontier models are the problem that some national regulators have been facing. Maximum entropy estimators are useful in the estimation of such ill-posed models, in particular in models exhibiting small sample sizes, collinearity and non-normal errors, as well as in models where the number of parameters to be estimated exceeds the number of observations available. The empirical study involves a sample data used by the Portuguese regulator of the electricity sector to set the parameters for the electricity distribution companies in the regulatory period of 2012-2014. DEA and maximum entropy methods are applied and the efficiency results are compared.
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Les modèles incrémentaux sont des modèles statistiques qui ont été développés initialement dans le domaine du marketing. Ils sont composés de deux groupes, un groupe contrôle et un groupe traitement, tous deux comparés par rapport à une variable réponse binaire (le choix de réponses est « oui » ou « non »). Ces modèles ont pour but de détecter l’effet du traitement sur les individus à l’étude. Ces individus n’étant pas tous des clients, nous les appellerons : « prospects ». Cet effet peut être négatif, nul ou positif selon les caractéristiques des individus composants les différents groupes. Ce mémoire a pour objectif de comparer des modèles incrémentaux d’un point de vue bayésien et d’un point de vue fréquentiste. Les modèles incrémentaux utilisés en pratique sont ceux de Lo (2002) et de Lai (2004). Ils sont initialement réalisés d’un point de vue fréquentiste. Ainsi, dans ce mémoire, l’approche bayésienne est utilisée et comparée à l’approche fréquentiste. Les simulations sont e ectuées sur des données générées avec des régressions logistiques. Puis, les paramètres de ces régressions sont estimés avec des simulations Monte-Carlo dans l’approche bayésienne et comparés à ceux obtenus dans l’approche fréquentiste. L’estimation des paramètres a une influence directe sur la capacité du modèle à bien prédire l’effet du traitement sur les individus. Nous considérons l’utilisation de trois lois a priori pour l’estimation des paramètres de façon bayésienne. Elles sont choisies de manière à ce que les lois a priori soient non informatives. Les trois lois utilisées sont les suivantes : la loi bêta transformée, la loi Cauchy et la loi normale. Au cours de l’étude, nous remarquerons que les méthodes bayésiennes ont un réel impact positif sur le ciblage des individus composant les échantillons de petite taille.
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This report presents a new extraction method of the dinophysistoxins (DTXs), confirmed by quantification using high-performance liquid chromatography coupled to mass spectrometry with an ion trap and electro spray interface (HPLC/ESI/MS2). The method originality consists on the adaptation of DTXs basic extraction procedure (liquid/ liquid) to a solid phase extraction (SPE) via a robotic station: ASPEC XLi The parameters of the automatization procedure were optimized to obtain the best DTXs recovery rate. These improvements were loaded with digestive gland mussel homogenat realized on a silica cartridge SPE, activated in hexane/chloroform (50:50), washed with hexane/chloroform (50:50) and extracted by an elution gradient (chloroform methanol (65:35) and methanol (100%)). This method was validated according to two normative referentials (linearity, detection quantification limits and accuracy…) : - The Guide of the Pharmacy industry: Analytical Validation, report of the commission SFSTP 1992 (French Corporation of the Sciences and Technical Pharmaceutical), - - The Procedure of validation of an alternative method in compare to a reference method. (AFNOR, 1998. NF V 03-110). Comparison with the classical liquid/liquid extraction and the automated method present clear advantages. In an analytical method the extraction is generally considered to be the most labor-intensive and error-prone step. This new procedure allowed us to increase throughput, to improve the reproducibility and to reduce the error risks due to the individual manual treatments.
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Group testing has long been considered as a safe and sensible relative to one-at-a-time testing in applications where the prevalence rate p is small. In this thesis, we applied Bayes approach to estimate p using Beta-type prior distribution. First, we showed two Bayes estimators of p from prior on p derived from two different loss functions. Second, we presented two more Bayes estimators of p from prior on π according to two loss functions. We also displayed credible and HPD interval for p. In addition, we did intensive numerical studies. All results showed that the Bayes estimator was preferred over the usual maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) for small p. We also presented the optimal β for different p, m, and k.
Design Optimization of Modern Machine-drive Systems for Maximum Fault Tolerant and Optimal Operation
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Modern electric machine drives, particularly three phase permanent magnet machine drive systems represent an indispensable part of high power density products. Such products include; hybrid electric vehicles, large propulsion systems, and automation products. Reliability and cost of these products are directly related to the reliability and cost of these systems. The compatibility of the electric machine and its drive system for optimal cost and operation has been a large challenge in industrial applications. The main objective of this dissertation is to find a design and control scheme for the best compromise between the reliability and optimality of the electric machine-drive system. The effort presented here is motivated by the need to find new techniques to connect the design and control of electric machines and drive systems. A highly accurate and computationally efficient modeling process was developed to monitor the magnetic, thermal, and electrical aspects of the electric machine in its operational environments. The modeling process was also utilized in the design process in form finite element based optimization process. It was also used in hardware in the loop finite element based optimization process. The modeling process was later employed in the design of a very accurate and highly efficient physics-based customized observers that are required for the fault diagnosis as well the sensorless rotor position estimation. Two test setups with different ratings and topologies were numerically and experimentally tested to verify the effectiveness of the proposed techniques. The modeling process was also employed in the real-time demagnetization control of the machine. Various real-time scenarios were successfully verified. It was shown that this process gives the potential to optimally redefine the assumptions in sizing the permanent magnets of the machine and DC bus voltage of the drive for the worst operating conditions. The mathematical development and stability criteria of the physics-based modeling of the machine, design optimization, and the physics-based fault diagnosis and the physics-based sensorless technique are described in detail. To investigate the performance of the developed design test-bed, software and hardware setups were constructed first. Several topologies of the permanent magnet machine were optimized inside the optimization test-bed. To investigate the performance of the developed sensorless control, a test-bed including a 0.25 (kW) surface mounted permanent magnet synchronous machine example was created. The verification of the proposed technique in a range from medium to very low speed, effectively show the intelligent design capability of the proposed system. Additionally, to investigate the performance of the developed fault diagnosis system, a test-bed including a 0.8 (kW) surface mounted permanent magnet synchronous machine example with trapezoidal back electromotive force was created. The results verify the use of the proposed technique under dynamic eccentricity, DC bus voltage variations, and harmonic loading condition make the system an ideal case for propulsion systems.