Afganistán: rezago de la Guerra Fría (Coyuntura)

El autor explica la evolución de los acontecimientos en ese país desde 1973 y considera que el régimen de los Talibán y el apoyo y hospitalidad que le han dado a la organización Al Qaeda de Osama Bin Laden constituyen, en esencia, un rezago, o epílogo, de la Guerra Fría. El autor también explica los esfuerzos en curso para establecer en Afganistán un gobierno que garantice estabilidad y paz a un pueblo que ya ha sufrido demasiado durante casi tres décadas y examina algunas de las posibles motivaciones de los actos terroristas contra los Estados Unidos.

El recurso de casación en materia penal

El tema central y alcance de la presente tesis de maestría está circunscrito al actual recurso de casación penal, contenido en los artículos 656 y 657 del Código Orgánico Integral Penal. La perspectiva teórico-metodológica utilizada ha sido de tipo documental y dogmática, recurriendo primariamente a textos legales, doctrina y jurisprudencia actualizada. El concepto principal que sigue esta tesis es que actualmente se ha disuelto la pretensión original del fin político de la casación, pues no se puede seguir pensando en términos de una teórica justicia absoluta abstracta, sino más bien en ir hacia una justicia razonable del caso concreto. Por tanto la idea que debe guiarnos es que la protección del sistema jurídico se ha ampliado a la efectiva protección de los derechos y garantías fundamentales, lo cual termina contorneando la casación penal de una manera muy diferente a la originalmente diseñada para su funcionamiento. En el capítulo primero se realiza un análisis histórico de la casación, con su "fin político o Ius constitutionis", esto es las funciones nomofiláctica y la uniformadora, y la creciente importancia del "fin procesal o Ius litigatoris" esto es la función dikelógica. Se analiza las características y principios de la casación penal. Y la llegada y desenvolvimiento de dicha institución procesal penal en nuestro país. En el capítulo segundo, se realiza un análisis de la correcta conceptualización de los conceptos de error in procedendo y error in iudicando, y dentro de éste último el error de derecho (in jure) y el error de hecho (in facto). Se resalta el tema del error de juicio in iudicando in factum, esto es la problemática del segundo inciso del Art. 656 del COIP, que bien puede ser la parte más importante de esta tesis. En el capítulo tercero se analiza la técnica de casación penal; y se hace un análisis de los titulares del recurso, de su admisión, de la audiencia pública de fundamentación; así como de la sentencia de casación.

The predictability of extratropical storm tracks and the sensitivity of their prediction to the observing system

A new method for assessing forecast skill and predictability that involves the identification and tracking of extratropical cyclones has been developed and implemented to obtain detailed information about the prediction of cyclones that cannot be obtained from more conventional analysis methodologies. The cyclones were identified and tracked along the forecast trajectories, and statistics were generated to determine the rate at which the position and intensity of the forecasted storms diverge from the analyzed tracks as a function of forecast lead time. The results show a higher level of skill in predicting the position of extratropical cyclones than the intensity. They also show that there is potential to improve the skill in predicting the position by 1 - 1.5 days and the intensity by 2 - 3 days, via improvements to the forecast model. Further analysis shows that forecasted storms move at a slower speed than analyzed storms on average and that there is a larger error in the predicted amplitudes of intense storms than the weaker storms. The results also show that some storms can be predicted up to 3 days before they are identified as an 850-hPa vorticity center in the analyses. In general, the results show a higher level of skill in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) than the Southern Hemisphere (SH); however, the rapid growth of NH winter storms is not very well predicted. The impact that observations of different types have on the prediction of the extratropical cyclones has also been explored, using forecasts integrated from analyses that were constructed from reduced observing systems. A terrestrial, satellite, and surface-based system were investigated and the results showed that the predictive skill of the terrestrial system was superior to the satellite system in the NH. Further analysis showed that the satellite system was not very good at predicting the growth of the storms. In the SH the terrestrial system has significantly less skill than the satellite system, highlighting the dominance of satellite observations in this hemisphere. The surface system has very poor predictive skill in both hemispheres.

Evaluation of suitable spectral intervals for near-IR laboratory detection of water vapour continuum absorption

The water vapour continuum absorption is an important component of molecular absorption of radiation in atmosphere. However, uncertainty in knowledge of the value of the continuum absorption at present can achieve 100% in different spectral regions leading to an error in flux calculation up to 3-5 W/m2 global mean. This work uses line-by-line calculations to reveal the best spectral intervals for experimental verification of the CKD water vapour continuum models in the currently least studied near-infrared spectral region. Possible sources of errors in continuum retrieval taken into account in the simulation include the sensitivity of laboratory spectrometers and uncertainties in the spectral line parameters in HITRAN-2004 and Schwenke-Partridge database. It is shown that a number of micro-windows in near-IR can be used at present for laboratory detection of the water vapour continuum with estimated accuracy from 30 to 5%.

Achieving accurate FTIR measurements on high performance bandpass filters

The sources of ordinate error in FTIR spectrometers are reviewed with reference to measuring small out-of-band features in the spectra of bandpass filters. Procedures for identifying instrumental artefacts are described. It is shown that features well below 0.01%T can be measured reliably.

Isolating the signal of ocean global warming

Identifying the signature of global warming in the world's oceans is challenging because low frequency circulation changes can dominate local temperature changes. The IPCC fourth assessment reported an average ocean heating rate of 0.21 ± 0.04 Wm−2 over the period 1961–2003, with considerable spatial, interannual and inter-decadal variability. We present a new analysis of millions of ocean temperature profiles designed to filter out local dynamical changes to give a more consistent view of the underlying warming. Time series of temperature anomaly for all waters warmer than 14°C show large reductions in interannual to inter-decadal variability and a more spatially uniform upper ocean warming trend (0.12 Wm−2 on average) than previous results. This new measure of ocean warming is also more robust to some sources of error in the ocean observing system. Our new analysis provides a useful addition for evaluation of coupled climate models, to the traditional fixed depth analyses.

Modelling the hydraulics of the Carlisle 2005 flood event

The performance of a 2D numerical model of flood hydraulics is tested for a major event in Carlisle, UK, in 2005. This event is associated with a unique data set, with GPS surveyed wrack lines and flood extent surveyed 3 weeks after the flood. The Simple Finite Volume (SFV) model is used to solve the 2D Saint-Venant equations over an unstructured mesh of 30000 elements representing channel and floodplain, and allowing detailed hydraulics of flow around bridge piers and other influential features to be represented. The SFV model is also used to corroborate flows recorded for the event at two gauging stations. Calibration of Manning's n is performed with a two stage strategy, with channel values determined by calibration of the gauging station models, and floodplain values determined by optimising the fit between model results and observed water levels and flood extent for the 2005 event. RMS error for the calibrated model compared with surveyed water levels is ~±0.4m, the same order of magnitude as the estimated error in the survey data. The study demonstrates the ability of unstructured mesh hydraulic models to represent important hydraulic processes across a range of scales, with potential applications to flood risk management.

Can desert dust explain the outgoing longwave radiation anomaly over the Sahara during July 2003?

Measurements of the top‐of‐the‐atmosphere outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) for July 2003 from Meteosat‐7 are used to assess the performance of the numerical weather prediction version of the Met Office Unified Model. A significant difference is found over desert regions of northern Africa where the model emits too much OLR by up to 35 Wm−2 in the monthly mean. By cloud‐screening the data we find an error of up to 50 Wm−2 associated with cloud‐free areas, which suggests an error in the model surface temperature, surface emissivity, or atmospheric transmission. By building up a physical model of the radiative properties of mineral dust based on in situ, and surface‐based and satellite remote sensing observations we show that the most plausible explanation for the discrepancy in OLR is due to the neglect of mineral dust in the model. The calculations suggest that mineral dust can exert a longwave radiative forcing by as much as 50 Wm−2 in the monthly mean for 1200 UTC in cloud‐free regions, which accounts for the discrepancy between the model and the Meteosat‐7 observations. This suggests that inclusion of the radiative effects of mineral dust will lead to a significant improvement in the radiation balance of numerical weather prediction models with subsequent improvements in performance.

An interpretation of baroclinic initial value problems: results for simple basic states with nonzero interior PV gradients

In the Eady model, where the meridional potential vorticity (PV) gradient is zero, perturbation energy growth can be partitioned cleanly into three mechanisms: (i) shear instability, (ii) resonance, and (iii) the Orr mechanism. Shear instability involves two-way interaction between Rossby edge waves on the ground and lid, resonance occurs as interior PV anomalies excite the edge waves, and the Orr mechanism involves only interior PV anomalies. These mechanisms have distinct implications for the structural and temporal linear evolution of perturbations. Here, a new framework is developed in which the same mechanisms can be distinguished for growth on basic states with nonzero interior PV gradients. It is further shown that the evolution from quite general initial conditions can be accurately described (peak error in perturbation total energy typically less than 10%) by a reduced system that involves only three Rossby wave components. Two of these are counterpropagating Rossby waves—that is, generalizations of the Rossby edge waves when the interior PV gradient is nonzero—whereas the other component depends on the structure of the initial condition and its PV is advected passively with the shear flow. In the cases considered, the three-component model outperforms approximate solutions based on truncating a modal or singular vector basis.

On the use of headline indices to link environmental quality and income at the level of the nation state

This paper deconstructs the relationship between the Environmental Sustainability Index (ESI) and national income. The ESI attempts to provide a single figure which encapsulates environmental sustainability' for each country included in the analysis, and this allied with a 'league table' format so as to name and shame bad performers, has resulted in widespread reporting within the popular presses of a number of countries. In essence, the higher the value of the ESI then the more 'environmentally sustainable' a country is deemed to be. A logical progression beyond the use of the ESI to publicise environmental sustainability is its use within a more analytical context. Thus an index designed to simplify in order to have an impact on policy is used to try and understand causes of good and bad performance in environmental sustainability. For example the creators of the ESI claim that ESI is related to GDP/capita (adjusted for Purchasing Power Parity) such that the ESI increases linearly with wealth. While this may in a sense be a comforting picture, do the variables within the ESI allow for alternatives to the story, and if they do then what are the repercussions for those producing such indices for broad consumption amongst the policy makers, mangers, the press, etc.? The latter point is especially important given the appetite for such indices amongst non-specialists, and for all their weaknesses the ESI and other such aggregated indices will not go away. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A wavenumber independent boundary element method for an acoustic scattering problem

In this paper we consider the impedance boundary value problem for the Helmholtz equation in a half-plane with piecewise constant boundary data, a problem which models, for example, outdoor sound propagation over inhomogeneous. at terrain. To achieve good approximation at high frequencies with a relatively low number of degrees of freedom, we propose a novel Galerkin boundary element method, using a graded mesh with smaller elements adjacent to discontinuities in impedance and a special set of basis functions so that, on each element, the approximation space contains polynomials ( of degree.) multiplied by traces of plane waves on the boundary. We prove stability and convergence and show that the error in computing the total acoustic field is O( N-(v+1) log(1/2) N), where the number of degrees of freedom is proportional to N logN. This error estimate is independent of the wavenumber, and thus the number of degrees of freedom required to achieve a prescribed level of accuracy does not increase as the wavenumber tends to infinity.

A high-wavenumber boundary-element method for an acoustic scattering problem

In this paper we show stability and convergence for a novel Galerkin boundary element method approach to the impedance boundary value problem for the Helmholtz equation in a half-plane with piecewise constant boundary data. This problem models, for example, outdoor sound propagation over inhomogeneous flat terrain. To achieve a good approximation with a relatively low number of degrees of freedom we employ a graded mesh with smaller elements adjacent to discontinuities in impedance, and a special set of basis functions for the Galerkin method so that, on each element, the approximation space consists of polynomials (of degree $\nu$) multiplied by traces of plane waves on the boundary. In the case where the impedance is constant outside an interval $[a,b]$, which only requires the discretization of $[a,b]$, we show theoretically and experimentally that the $L_2$ error in computing the acoustic field on $[a,b]$ is ${\cal O}(\log^{\nu+3/2}|k(b-a)| M^{-(\nu+1)})$, where $M$ is the number of degrees of freedom and $k$ is the wavenumber. This indicates that the proposed method is especially commendable for large intervals or a high wavenumber. In a final section we sketch how the same methodology extends to more general scattering problems.

An estimate of the global impact of multiple scattering by clouds on outgoing long-wave radiation

Although the potential importance of scattering of long-wave radiation by clouds has been recognised, most studies have concentrated on the impact of high clouds and few estimates of the global impact of scattering have been presented. This study shows that scattering in low clouds has a significant impact on outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) in regions of marine stratocumulus (-3.5 W m(-2) for overcast conditions) where the column water vapour is relatively low. This corresponds to an enhancement of the greenhouse effect of such clouds by 10%. The near-global impact of scattering on OLR is estimated to be -3.0 W m(-2), with low clouds contributing -0.9 W m(-2), mid-level cloud -0.7 W m(-2) and high clouds -1.4 W m(-2). Although this effect appears small compared to the global mean OLR of 240 W m(-2), it indicates that neglect of scattering will lead to an error in cloud long-wave forcing of about 10% and an error in net cloud forcing of about 20%.

Moist singular vectors and the predictability of some high impact European cyclones

The ECMWF full-physics and dry singular vector (SV) packages, using a dry energy norm and a 1-day optimization time, are applied to four high impact European cyclones of recent years that were almost universally badly forecast in the short range. It is shown that these full-physics SVs are much more relevant to severe cyclonic development than those based on dry dynamics plus boundary layer alone. The crucial extra ingredient is the representation of large-scale latent heat release. The severe winter storms all have a long, nearly straight region of high baroclinicity stretching across the Atlantic towards Europe, with a tongue of very high moisture content on its equatorward flank. In each case some of the final-time top SV structures pick out the region of the actual storm. The initial structures were generally located in the mid- to low troposphere. Forecasts based on initial conditions perturbed by moist SVs with opposite signs and various amplitudes show the range of possible 1-day outcomes for reasonable magnitudes of forecast error. In each case one of the perturbation structures gave a forecast very much closer to the actual storm than the control forecast. Deductions are made about the predictability of high-impact extratropical cyclone events. Implications are drawn for the short-range forecast problem and suggestions made for one practicable way to approach short-range ensemble forecasting. Copyright © 2005 Royal Meteorological Society.

Estimating drizzle drop size and precipitation rate using two-colour lidar measurements

A method to estimate the size and liquid water content of drizzle drops using lidar measurements at two wavelengths is described. The method exploits the differential absorption of infrared light by liquid water at 905 nm and 1.5 μm, which leads to a different backscatter cross section for water drops larger than ≈50 μm. The ratio of backscatter measured from drizzle samples below cloud base at these two wavelengths (the colour ratio) provides a measure of the median volume drop diameter D0. This is a strong effect: for D0=200 μm, a colour ratio of ≈6 dB is predicted. Once D0 is known, the measured backscatter at 905 nm can be used to calculate the liquid water content (LWC) and other moments of the drizzle drop distribution. The method is applied to observations of drizzle falling from stratocumulus and stratus clouds. High resolution (32 s, 36 m) profiles of D0, LWC and precipitation rate R are derived. The main sources of error in the technique are the need to assume a value for the dispersion parameter μ in the drop size spectrum (leading to at most a 35% error in R) and the influence of aerosol returns on the retrieval (≈10% error in R for the cases considered here). Radar reflectivities are also computed from the lidar data, and compared to independent measurements from a colocated cloud radar, offering independent validation of the derived drop size distributions.