Crash risk estimation and assessment tool

Currently in Australia, there are no decision support tools for traffic and transport engineers to assess the crash risk potential of proposed road projects at design level. A selection of equivalent tools already exists for traffic performance assessment, e.g. aaSIDRA or VISSIM. The Urban Crash Risk Assessment Tool (UCRAT) was developed for VicRoads by ARRB Group to promote methodical identification of future crash risks arising from proposed road infrastructure, where safety cannot be evaluated based on past crash history. The tool will assist practitioners with key design decisions to arrive at the safest and the most cost -optimal design options. This paper details the development and application of UCRAT software. This professional tool may be used to calculate an expected mean number of casualty crashes for an intersection, a road link or defined road network consisting of a number of such elements. The mean number of crashes provides a measure of risk associated with the proposed functional design and allows evaluation of alternative options. The tool is based on historical data for existing road infrastructure in metropolitan Melbourne and takes into account the influence of key design features, traffic volumes, road function and the speed environment. Crash prediction modelling and risk assessment approaches were combined to develop its unique algorithms. The tool has application in such projects as road access proposals associated with land use developments, public transport integration projects and new road corridor upgrade proposals.

A spatial assessment of the risk to a mobile marine mammal from bycatch

Several species of marine mammals are at risk of extinction from being captured as bycatch in commercial fisheries. Various approaches have been developed and implemented to address this bycatch problem, including devices and gear changes, time and area closures and fisheries moratoria. Most of these solutions are difficult to implement effectively, especially for artisanal fisheries in developing countries and remote regions. Re-zoning of the Great Barrier Reef World Heritage Area (GBRWHA) in 2004 closed 33% of the region to extractive activities, including commercial fishing. However, the impact of re-zoning and the associated industry restructuring on a threatened marine mammal, the dugong (Dugong dugon), is difficult to quantify. Accurate information on dugong bycatch in commercial nets is unavailable because of the large geographic extent of the GBRWHA, the remoteness of the region adjacent to the Cape York Peninsula where most dugongs occur and the artisanal nature of the fishery. In the face of this uncertainty, a spatial risk-assessment approach was used to evaluate the re-zoning and associated industry restructuring for their ability to reduce the risk of dugong bycatch from commercial fisheries netting. The new zoning arrangements appreciably reduced the risk of dugong bycatch by reducing the total area where commercial netting is permitted. Netting is currently not permitted in 67% of dugong habitats of high conservation value, a 56% improvement over the former arrangements. Re-zoning and industry restructuring also contributed to a 22% decline in the spatial extent of conducted netting. Spatial risk assessment approaches that evaluate the risk of mobile marine mammals from bycatch are applicable to other situations where there is limited information on the location and intensity of bycatch, including remote regions and developing countries where resources are limited.

The assessment of ecological condition in south-east Queensland, Australia: An evaluation of reliability across variable environments and surrogate efficacy for biodiversity values

Multimetric ecological condition assessment has become an important biodiversity management tool. This study was the first to examine the reliability of these ecological surrogates across variable environments, and the implications for surrogate efficacy. It was demonstrated that through strategic application and design of the multimetric ecological condition index, the effects of environmental gradients and disturbance regimes can be mitigated, and that ecological condition assessment may serve as a scientifically rigorous approach for conservation planning.

Assessment of Risk for Type 1 Diabetes in Children of Affected Families and in the General Population : Role of Immunological and Metabolic Markers

Background and aims. Type 1 diabetes (T1D), an autoimmune disease in which the insulin producing beta cells are gradually destroyed, is preceded by a prodromal phase characterized by appearance of diabetes-associated autoantibodies in circulation. Both the timing of the appearance of autoantibodies and their quality have been used in the prediction of T1D among first-degree relatives of diabetic patients (FDRs). So far, no general strategies for identifying individuals at increased disease risk in the general population have been established, although the majority of new cases originate in this population. The current work aimed at assessing the predictive role of diabetes-associated immunologic and metabolic risk factors in the general population, and comparing these factors with data obtained from studies on FDRs. Subjects and methods. Study subjects in the current work were subcohorts of participants of the Childhood Diabetes in Finland Study (DiMe; n=755), the Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns Study (LASERI; n=3475), and the Finnish Type 1 Diabetes Prediction and Prevention Study (DIPP) Study subjects (n=7410). These children were observed for signs of beta-cell autoimmunity and progression to T1D, and the results obtained were compared between the FDRs and the general population cohorts. --- Results and conclusions. By combining HLA and autoantibody screening, T1D risks similar to those reported for autoantibody-positive FDRs are observed in the pediatric general population. Progression rate to T1D is high in genetically susceptible children with persistent multipositivity. Measurement of IAA affinity failed in stratifying the risk assessment in young IAA-positive children with HLA-conferred disease susceptibility, among whom affinity of IAA did not increase during the prediabetic period. Young age at seroconversion, increased weight-for-height, decreased early insulin response, and increased IAA and IA-2A levels predict T1D in young children with genetic disease susceptibility and signs of advanced beta-cell autoimmunity. Since the incidence of T1D continues to increase, efforts aimed at preventing T1D are important, and reliable disease prediction is needed both for intervention trials and for effective and safe preventive therapies in the future. Our observations confirmed that combined HLA-based screening and regular autoantibody measurements reveal similar disease risks in pediatric general population as those seen in prediabetic FDRs, and that risk assessment can be stratified further by studying glucose metabolism of prediabetic subjects. As these screening efforts are feasible in practice, the knowledge now obtained can be exploited while designing intervention trials aimed at secondary prevention of T1D.

Distribution and their pollution assessment of heavy metals in the sediments of the Yalu River Estuary and its adjacent coastal waters

The present paper deals with the distribution patterns of heavy metals and the associated influencing factors in the Yalu River Estuary and its adjacent coastal waters. Based upon the analysis of the surficial and core sediments measurements, the pollution of heavy metal and potential ecological risk were evaluated. The burial flux and contents of heavy metals (except for copper) have been continuously increasing since the 1920s. Therefore, the gross potential ecological risk for the sediments was high or very high, and the study area was endangered by heavy metals contamination. Heavy metals originated mainly from upstream pollutant input, correlation analysis showed that chromium, nickel, zinc, cadmium, lead, arsenic, and mercury in the sediments of the middle and west channels as well as the sea area of the western Yalu River Estuary concentrations were most probably derived from similar sources. In contrast, the metal of copper most probably originated from sources different from the other metals. Preliminary studies indicate that copper contamination was most likely the result of emission from mining activities situated at the upstream of the river. The contents of heavy metals in the sediments of estuarine turbidity maximum zone of Yalu River were larger than those of any other areas in the middle channel. With large portion of fine sediments, weaker hydrodynamics, and richer sources of heavy metals, the sediments of the west channel, were even more enriched with heavy metals than those of the middle channel.

The less amorous Gammarus: predation risk affects mating decisions in Gammarus duebeni (Amphipoda)

We examined the trade-off between the behaviours associated with predator avoidance and mate acquisition in the mate-guarding amphipod crustacean Gammarus duebeni. We used laboratory experiments to investigate the impact of olfactory predator cues on activity, mate choice and mate-guarding behaviour of males and females. Pair formation declined under perceived risk of predation, reflecting reduced activity of both males and females and hence a reduced likelihood of encountering a mate. We also observed a reduction in the choosiness of both males and females. Under increased perceived predation risk, assessment of the female by the male was more likely to be followed by pair formation, and males showed a nonsignificant trend towards reduced discrimination in favour of large females and were less tenacious in their pair bond when they paired during exposure to predator cues. Females also showed less resistance behaviour, suggesting that both males and females trade off the costs of maximizing current reproductive success against the benefits of predator avoidance for survival and reproduction in the future. We discuss the implications of such context-dependent mating behaviours for ecological interactions between species and suggest that predators, via the effects of perceived predation risk on mate choice and mate guarding in the prey species, induce trait-mediated indirect effects with the potential to influence population dynamics and community structure. (C) 2008 The Association for the Study of Animal Behaviour. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Ecological impacts of an invasive predator explained and predicted by comparative functional responses

Forecasting the ecological impacts of invasive species is a major challenge that has seen little progress, yet the development of robust predictive approaches is essential as new invasion threats continue to emerge. A common feature of ecologically damaging invaders is their ability to rapidly exploit and deplete resources. We thus hypothesized that the 'functional response' (the relationship between resource density and consumption rate) of such invasive species might be of consistently greater magnitude than those of taxonomically and/or trophically similar native species. Here, we derived functional responses of the predatory Ponto-Caspian freshwater 'bloody red' shrimp, Hemimysis anomala, a recent and ecologically damaging invader in Europe and N. America, in comparison to the local native analogues Mysis salemaai and Mysis diluviana in Ireland and Canada, respectively. This was conducted in a novel set of experiments involving multiple prey species in each geographic location and a prey species that occurs in both regions. The predatory functional responses of the invader were generally higher than those of the comparator native species and this difference was consistent across invaded regions. Moreover, those prey species characterized by the strongest and potentially de-stabilizing Type II functional responses in our laboratory experiments were the same prey species found to be most impacted by H. anomala in the field. The impact potential of H. anomala was further indicated when it exhibited similar or higher attack rates, consistently lower prey handling times and higher maximum feeding rates compared to those of the two Mysis species, formerly known as 'Mysis relicta', which itself has an extensive history of foodweb disruption in lakes to which it has been introduced. Comparative functional responses thus merit further exploration as a methodology for predicting severe community-level impacts of current and future invasive species and could be entered into risk assessment protocols.

THE SAAF STUDY: evaluation of the Safeguarding Children Assessment and Analysis Framework (SAAF), compared with management as usual, for improving outcomes for children and young people who have experienced, or are at risk of, maltreatment: study protocol for a randomised controlled trial

Background: Serious case reviews and research studies have indicated weaknesses in risk assessments conducted by child protection social workers. Social workers are adept at gathering information but struggle with analysis and assessment of risk. The Department for Education wants to know if the use of a structured decision-making tool can improve child protection assessments of risk.

Methods/design: This multi-site, cluster-randomised trial will assess the effectiveness of the Safeguarding Children Assessment and Analysis Framework (SAAF). This structured decision-making tool aims to improve social workers' assessments of harm, of future risk and parents' capacity to change. The comparison is management as usual.

Inclusion criteria: Children's Services Departments (CSDs) in England willing to make relevant teams available to be randomised, and willing to meet the trial's training and data collection requirements.

Exclusion criteria: CSDs where there were concerns about performance; where a major organisational restructuring was planned or under way; or where other risk assessment tools were in use.

Six CSDs are participating in this study. Social workers in the experimental arm will receive 2 days training in SAAF together with a range of support materials, and access to limited telephone consultation post-training. The primary outcome is child maltreatment. This will be assessed using data collected nationally on two key performance indicators: the first is the number of children in a year who have been subject to a second Child Protection Plan (CPP); the second is the number of re-referrals of children because of related concerns about maltreatment. Secondary outcomes are: i) the quality of assessments judged against a schedule of quality criteria and ii) the relationship between the three assessments required by the structured decision-making tool (level of harm, risk of (re) abuse and prospects for successful intervention).

Discussion: This is the first study to examine the effectiveness of SAAF. It will contribute to a very limited literature on the contribution that structured decision-making tools can make to improving risk assessment and case planning in child protection and on what is involved in their effective implementation.

Population-level assessment of risks of pesticides to birds and mammals in the UK

It is generally acknowledged that population-level assessments provide,I better measure of response to toxicants than assessments of individual-level effects. population-level assessments generally require the use of models to integrate potentially complex data about the effects of toxicants on life-history traits, and to provide a relevant measure of ecological impact. Building on excellent earlier reviews we here briefly outline the modelling options in population-level risk assessment. Modelling is used to calculate population endpoints from available data, which is often about Individual life histories, the ways that individuals interact with each other, the environment and other species, and the ways individuals are affected by pesticides. As population endpoints, we recommend the use of population abundance, population growth rate, and the chance of population persistence. We recommend two types of model: simple life-history models distinguishing two life-history stages, juveniles and adults; and spatially-explicit individual-based landscape models. Life-history models are very quick to set up and run, and they provide a great deal or insight. At the other extreme, individual-based landscape models provide the greatest verisimilitude, albeit at the cost of greatly increased complexity. We conclude with a discussion of the cations of the severe problems of parameterising models.

The role of myocardial scintigraphy in the assessment of cardiovascular risk in patients with end-stage chronic kidney disease on the waiting list for renal transplantation

The usefulness of stress myocardial perfusion scintigraphy for cardiovascular (CV) risk stratification in chronic kidney disease remains controversial. We tested the hypothesis that different clinical risk profiles influence the test. We assessed the prognostic value of myocardial scintigraphy in 892 consecutive renal transplant candidates classified into four risk groups: very high (aged epsilon 50 years, diabetes and CV disease), high (two factors), intermediate (one factor) and low (no factor). The incidence of CV events and death was 20 and 18, respectively (median follow-up 22 months). Altered stress testing was associated with an increased probability of cardiovascular events only in intermediate-risk (one risk factor) patients [30.3 versus 10, hazard ratio (HR) 2.37, confidence interval (CI) 1.693.33, P 0.0001]. Low-risk patients did well regardless of scan results. In patients with two or three risk factors, an altered stress test did not add to the already increased CV risk. Myocardial scintigraphy was related to overall mortality only in intermediate-risk patients (HR 2.8, CI 1.55.1, P 0.007). CV risk stratification based on myocardial stress testing is useful only in patients with just one risk factor. Screening may avoid unnecessary testing in 60 of patients, help stratifying for risk of events and provide an explanation for the inconsistent performance of myocardial scintigraphy.

Assessment of cardiovascular risk of patients with arterial hypertension of a public health unit

OBJECTIVE: To assess the cardiovascular risk, using the Framingham risk score, in a sample of hypertensive individuals coming from a public primary care unit. METHODS: The caseload comprised hypertensive individuals according to criteria established by the JNC VII, 2003, of 2003, among 1601 patients followed up in 1999, at the Cardiology and Arterial Hypertension Outpatients Clinic of the Teaching Primary Care Unit, at the Faculdade de Medicina de Ribeirão Preto, Universidade de São Paulo. The patients were selected by draw, aged over 20 years, both genders, excluding pregnant women. It was a descriptive, cross-sectional, observational study. The Framingham risk score was used to stratify cardiovascular risk of developing coronary artery disease (death or non-fatal acute myocardial infarction). RESULTS: Age range of 27-79 years ( = 63.2 ± 9.58). Out of 382 individuals studied, 270 (70.7%) were female and 139 (36.4%) were characterized as high cardiovascular risk for presenting diabetes mellitus, atherosclerosis documented by event or procedure. Out of 243 stratified patients, 127 (52.3%) had HDL-C < 50 mg/dL; 210 (86.4%) had systolic blood pressure > 120 mmHg; 46 (18.9%) were smokers; 33 (13.6%) had a high cardiovascular risk. Those added to 139 enrolled directly as high cardiovascular risk, totaled up 172 (45%); 77 (20.2%) of medium cardiovascular risk and 133 (34.8%) of low risk. The highest percentage of high cardiovascular risk individuals was aged over 70 years; those of medium risk were aged over 60 years; and the low risk patients were aged 50 to 69 years. CONCLUSION: The significant number of high and medium cardiovascular risk individuals indicates the need to closely follow them up.

Multicentre validation of the Geneva Risk Score for hospitalised medical patients at risk of venous thromboembolism. Explicit ASsessment of Thromboembolic RIsk and Prophylaxis for Medical PATients in SwitzErland (ESTIMATE).

There is a need to validate risk assessment tools for hospitalised medical patients at risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE). We investigated whether a predefined cut-off of the Geneva Risk Score, as compared to the Padua Prediction Score, accurately distinguishes low-risk from high-risk patients regardless of the use of thromboprophylaxis. In the multicentre, prospective Explicit ASsessment of Thromboembolic RIsk and Prophylaxis for Medical PATients in SwitzErland (ESTIMATE) cohort study, 1,478 hospitalised medical patients were enrolled of whom 637 (43%) did not receive thromboprophylaxis. The primary endpoint was symptomatic VTE or VTE-related death at 90 days. The study is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01277536. According to the Geneva Risk Score, the cumulative rate of the primary endpoint was 3.2% (95% confidence interval [CI] 2.2-4.6%) in 962 high-risk vs 0.6% (95% CI 0.2-1.9%) in 516 low-risk patients (p=0.002); among patients without prophylaxis, this rate was 3.5% vs 0.8% (p=0.029), respectively. In comparison, the Padua Prediction Score yielded a cumulative rate of the primary endpoint of 3.5% (95% CI 2.3-5.3%) in 714 high-risk vs 1.1% (95% CI 0.6-2.3%) in 764 low-risk patients (p=0.002); among patients without prophylaxis, this rate was 3.2% vs 1.5% (p=0.130), respectively. Negative likelihood ratio was 0.28 (95% CI 0.10-0.83) for the Geneva Risk Score and 0.51 (95% CI 0.28-0.93) for the Padua Prediction Score. In conclusion, among hospitalised medical patients, the Geneva Risk Score predicted VTE and VTE-related mortality and compared favourably with the Padua Prediction Score, particularly for its accuracy to identify low-risk patients who do not require thromboprophylaxis.

Concepts and methods of quantitative assessment of risk to groundwater resources

This work presents a two-dimensional approach of risk assessment method based on the quantification of the probability of the occurrence of contaminant source terms, as well as the assessment of the resultant impacts. The risk is calculated using Monte Carlo simulation methods whereby synthetic contaminant source terms were generated to the same distribution as historically occurring pollution events or a priori potential probability distribution. The spatial and temporal distributions of the generated contaminant concentrations at pre-defined monitoring points within the aquifer were then simulated from repeated realisations using integrated mathematical models. The number of times when user defined ranges of concentration magnitudes were exceeded is quantified as risk. The utilities of the method were demonstrated using hypothetical scenarios, and the risk of pollution from a number of sources all occurring by chance together was evaluated. The results are presented in the form of charts and spatial maps. The generated risk maps show the risk of pollution at each observation borehole, as well as the trends within the study area. This capability to generate synthetic pollution events from numerous potential sources of pollution based on historical frequency of their occurrence proved to be a great asset to the method, and a large benefit over the contemporary methods.

Socio-ecological vulnerability to climate change in South Florida

Awareness of extreme high tide flooding in coastal communities has been increasing in recent years, reflecting growing concern over accelerated sea level rise. As a low-lying, urban coastal community with high value real estate, Miami often tops the rankings of cities worldwide in terms of vulnerability to sea level rise. Understanding perceptions of these changes and how communities are dealing with the impacts reveals much about vulnerability to climate change and the challenges of adaptation. ^ This empirical study uses an innovative mixed-methods approach that combines ethnographic observations of high tide flooding, qualitative interviews and analysis of tidal data to reveal coping strategies used by residents and businesses as well as perceptions of sea level rise and climate change, and to assess the relationship between measurable sea levels and perceptions of flooding. I conduct a case study of Miami Beach's storm water master planning process which included sea level rise projections, one of the first in the nation to do so, that reveals the different and sometimes competing logics of planners, public officials, activists, residents and business interests with regards to climate change adaptation. By taking a deeply contextual account of hazards and adaptation efforts in a local area I demonstrate how this approach can be effective at shedding light on some of the challenges posed by anthropogenic climate change and accelerated rates of sea level rise. ^ The findings highlight challenges for infrastructure planning in low-lying, urban coastal areas, and for individual risk assessment in the context of rapidly evolving discourse about the threat of sea level rise. Recognition of the trade-offs and limits of incremental adaptation strategies point to transformative approaches, at the same time highlighting equity concerns in adaptation governance and planning. This new impact assessment method contributes to the integration of social and physical science approaches to climate change, resulting in improved understanding of socio-ecological vulnerability to environmental change.^