Timing ótimo para investir na proteção costeira na zona centro de Portugal

A presente dissertação insere-se no âmbito da gestão das zonas costeiras, que na atualidade enfrentam um grave problema de erosão. Este torna-se um problema social com especial importância devido à concentração populacional e atividade económica que se verifica nas regiões litorais. Neste contexto muitos têm sido os estudos físicos e económicos levados a cabo no sentido de encontrar soluções para lidar com este problema. O principal objetivo desta dissertação foi avaliar qual a importância que o timing em que é efetuado o investimento na proteção pode ter na defesa das zonas costeiras. Por outras palavras, perceber se existem ou não vantagens em adiar o investimento na proteção por um determinado período de tempo. Foi definida como área de estudo o trecho costeiro de 20 km compreendido entre a Praia da Barra (Aveiro) e a Praia de Mira (Coimbra). Através da utilização do modelo numérico Long-Term Configuration (LTC) foi simulada a evolução da linha de costa por um período de 80 anos, seguida de uma análise custo-benefício ambiental em que foi considerada a possibilidade de investimentos em estruturas de defesa (no caso desta dissertação esporões com 100m, 200m e 300m de comprimento) a serem efetuados após 0, 10, 20 ou 30 anos. Foram também contempladas restrições orçamentais, e ainda, efetuada uma análise de sensibilidade à taxa de desconto utilizada. Os resultados mostram que quanto mais cedo se iniciar proteção das zonas costeiras, mais benefícios económicos serão retirados desse investimento. Os cenários que se apresentaram como os mais vantajosos são aqueles em que o investimento é levado a cabo no Ano 0 e onde se opta por uma proteção integral ou quase integral da linha de costa. Ainda assim, em todos os timings de investimento analisados foi possível encontrar cenários economicamente viáveis e dos quais resultariam benefícios económicos. A análise com inclusão de restrições orçamentais mostra que a utilização destas deixa de fazer sentido à medida que o investimento é adiado, funcionando então o próprio retardar do investimento como uma medida de contenção orçamental. A análise de sensibilidade à taxa de desconto revelou que a opção por uma taxa de desconto de 4% acaba por não influenciar de maneira significativa os resultados obtidos.

There exists circularity between WACC and value? Another solution.

Although we know there exists a simple approach to solve the circularity between value and the discount rate, known as the Adjusted Present Value proposed by Myers, 1974, it seems that practitioners still rely on the traditional Weighted Average Cost of Capital, WACC approach of weighting the cost of debt, Kd and the cost of equity, Ke and discounting the Free Cash Flow, FCF. We show how to solve circularity when calculating value with the free cash flow, FCF and the WACC. As a result of the solution we arrive at a known solution when we assume the discount rate of the tax equity: the capital cash flow, CCF discounted at Ku. When assuming Kd as the discount rate for the tax savings, we find an expression for calculating value that does not implies circularity. We do this for a single period and for N periods.

An Examination of Parental Engagement During the Middle School Years

The purpose of this quantitative study was to explore the previously unexamined phenomenon of middle school parental engagement in a large urban/suburban/rural school district of 209 schools in the mid-Atlantic region of the United States. Across 22 middle schools serving grades six-eight, this study collected and examined perceptions of the three key adult stakeholder groups – administrators, teachers, and parents – most actively involved in middle school parental engagement as described within the theoretical framework of academic socialization. Their reports of observable parental engagement activities were used to document how district stakeholders operationalize behaviors that represent the five actionable constructs and three themes of academic socialization to determine how the district “fares” in employing academic socialization as a middle school parent engagement strategy. The study also applied quantitative descriptive analysis through a one-way ANOVA to determine the significance of observable variations in actionable constructs between the perspectives of the three stakeholder groups. Finally, the study illuminated, through regression modeling, when confounding factors/independent variables such as race, income, school size, administrator and teacher experience, parents’ educational background, etc., impacted operationalization of academic socialization behaviors for middle school parent and family engagement. Rejecting the null hypothesis, the study found that the three stakeholder groups had statistically significant differences in perceptions of their implementation of activities aligned to academic socialization. This study ultimately illuminated ways in which these adult stakeholder groups share similar and varied perceptions about their engagement actions that support the achievement and maturation of middle school students. Significantly, this study provided key findings that illuminated areas that can be systemically addressed to transform middle school parent engagement practices through applied academic socialization theory into consistent and effective collaborative efforts between the home and school. The process of operationalizing academic socialization was outlined in terms that any school or district can follow to improve programs and practices of middle school parental engagement to serve in the best interests of students during this period of great transition for both child/adolescent growth and development and adult navigation of systems to provide support for students in this unique stage of growth and maturation.

Three Essays in Empirical Asset Pricing

The financial crisis of 2007-2008 led to extraordinary government intervention in firms and markets. The scope and depth of government action rivaled that of the Great Depression. Many traded markets experienced dramatic declines in liquidity leading to the existence of conditions normally assumed to be promptly removed via the actions of profit seeking arbitrageurs. These extreme events motivate the three essays in this work. The first essay seeks and fails to find evidence of investor behavior consistent with the broad 'Too Big To Fail' policies enacted during the crisis by government agents. Only in limited circumstances, where government guarantees such as deposit insurance or U.S. Treasury lending lines already existed, did investors impart a premium to the debt security prices of firms under stress. The second essay introduces the Inflation Indexed Swap Basis (IIS Basis) in examining the large differences between cash and derivative markets based upon future U.S. inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI). It reports the consistent positive value of this measure as well as the very large positive values it reached in the fourth quarter of 2008 after Lehman Brothers went bankrupt. It concludes that the IIS Basis continues to exist due to limitations in market liquidity and hedging alternatives. The third essay explores the methodology of performing debt based event studies utilizing credit default swaps (CDS). It provides practical implementation advice to researchers to address limited source data and/or small target firm sample size.

ASSESSING QUALITY IN HIGH-UNCERTAINTY MARKETS: ONLINE REVIEWS OF CREDENCE SERVICES

In economics of information theory, credence products are those whose quality is difficult or impossible for consumers to assess, even after they have consumed the product (Darby & Karni, 1973). This dissertation is focused on the content, consumer perception, and power of online reviews for credence services. Economics of information theory has long assumed, without empirical confirmation, that consumers will discount the credibility of claims about credence quality attributes. The same theories predict that because credence services are by definition obscure to the consumer, reviews of credence services are incapable of signaling quality. Our research aims to question these assumptions. In the first essay we examine how the content and structure of online reviews of credence services systematically differ from the content and structure of reviews of experience services and how consumers judge these differences. We have found that online reviews of credence services have either less important or less credible content than reviews of experience services and that consumers do discount the credibility of credence claims. However, while consumers rationally discount the credibility of simple credence claims in a review, more complex argument structure and the inclusion of evidence attenuate this effect. In the second essay we ask, “Can online reviews predict the worst doctors?” We examine the power of online reviews to detect low quality, as measured by state medical board sanctions. We find that online reviews are somewhat predictive of a doctor’s suitability to practice medicine; however, not all the data are useful. Numerical or star ratings provide the strongest quality signal; user-submitted text provides some signal but is subsumed almost completely by ratings. Of the ratings variables in our dataset, we find that punctuality, rather than knowledge, is the strongest predictor of medical board sanctions. These results challenge the definition of credence products, which is a long-standing construct in economics of information theory. Our results also have implications for online review users, review platforms, and for the use of predictive modeling in the context of information systems research.

Desarrollo de una plataforma de marketing digital para el mejoramiento de las estrategias de promoción de las Micro y Pequeñas Empresas del departamento de Usulután

El presente trabajo tiene como finalidad evidenciar la importancia que tienen actualmente las redes sociales en el ámbito empresarial y como han revolucionado la perspectiva mercadológica sobre la promoción de productos o servicios, debido a la gran aceptación de este nuevo medio de comunicación, es vital para todas las empresas diseñar planes de mercadeo, que integren estas nuevas herramientas tecnológicas.Por tanto el marketing ligado a los constantes cambios tecnológicos obliga a que el empresario implemente el internet como herramienta para lograr los objetivos estratégicos de sus negocios. Realizamos un análisis interno y externo de la situación actual para determinar los requerimientos informáticos que debe satisfacer la plataforma de marketing digital; se propone un plan de marketing digital a fin de estimular la comercialización de los productos y servicios de las MYPES así como el diseño de una plataforma de marketing digital con el propósito de cautivar al público objetivo y se presenta información publicitaria actualizada a través de la plataforma de marketing digital a los clientes actuales y potenciales con el fin de mejorar la imagen corporativa e incrementar las ventas. Es de gran importancia reconocer que actualmente la tecnología ha provocado un cambio estratégico en la forma de publicitar y promocionar los productos y servicios, así como también en la manera en la que los consumidores se relacionan con el entorno. Este cambio tecnológico ha afectado tanto a organizaciones lucrativas como no lucrativas, por lo que se debe planificar cómo reaccionar ante este cambio para poder adaptarse al nuevo contexto.

The Relation between Substance Use and Medication Adherence among HIV Positive Substance Users in Residential Treatment

Poor medication adherence is problematic among HIV positive, low-income African-American substance users. Substance use has been shown to be associated with poor medication adherence, though we do not know the mechanism that underlies this relationship. Lack of positive environmental rewards and the propensity to discount delayed rewards may be possible mechanisms to explain this relationship. Using baseline data from a randomized controlled trial, we examined the relationships between substance use and medication adherence, testing both environmental rewards and delay discounting as independent mediators. There was a main effect of substance use on adherence, such that high frequency of substance use predicted poor adherence. There was also a main effect of environmental rewards on adherence, such that a lack of environmental reinforcement predicted poor adherence. This study shed light on the processes that contribute to low adherence, namely substance use and lack of environmental contingencies, and suggests important targets for intervention.

Novas abordagens à visualização e interacção com dados turísticos

Com o forte crescimento tecnológico tem-se verificado, cada vez mais, o crescente aumento de Web sites, voltados para o contacto directo com o consumidor, onde é possível procurar, escolher e adquirir um determinado produto I serviço directamente ao fornecedor. As plataformas de suporte à pesquisa de produtos de turismo possibilitam a entrega de um grande volume de dados mediante a pesquisa efectuada. Esta informação é, na sua maior parte, informação textual e é geralmente disponibilizada ao utilizador (via uma página Web) sob a forma de uma listagem ou tabela. Este trabalho incide então sobre a proposta e implementação de um conjunto de interfaces com elevada ergonomia, que permitam uma interacção simples e intuitiva entre o utilizador e os dados de turismo, mais concretamente com reservas de aviação e hotel. Para este propósito foi desenvolvida uma Rich Internet Application que permite ao utilizador o ajuste de determinados factores, que influenciam estes produtos de turismo, de modo a encontrar com maior facilidade o que mais se enquadra nos seus gostos I objectivos no vasto conjunto de resultados da pesquisa. ABSTRACT; With the constant growth of information technology tools we have witnessed increase in the number of web Sites aimed to direct contact with the consumer, where users can search, select and purchase a product/service directly to the supplier. The platforms that support the search for tourism data enable the delivery of a large volume of data, as a result of the search that was done. This information is mostly textual and is, in general available to the user (via a web page) in a form of a large list or table. This work focuses on a proposal and implementation of a set of interfaces with high ergonomics. allowing a simple and intuitive interaction between the user and the tourism data, more specifically with air fares and hotels reservations. For this purpose was developed an Rich Internet Application that allows the user to adjust some factors that influence the tourism products, in order to more accurately find what fits their tastes objectives in the wide range of search results.

Recessive Mutations in RTN4IP1 Cause Isolated and Syndromic Optic Neuropathies

International audience

Cost-effectiveness analysis of apixaban compared to low-molecular-weight heparins and vitamin k antagonists for treatment and secondary prevention of venous thromboembolism

Objective: Cost-effectiveness analysis of a 6-month treatment of apixaban (10 mg/12h, first 7 days; 5 mg/12h afterwards) for the treatment of the first event of venous thromboembolism (VTE) and prevention of recurrences, versus low-molecular-weight heparins/vitamin K antagonists treatment (LMWH/VKA). Material and methods: A lifetime Markov model with 13 health states was used for describing the course of the disease. Efficacy and safety data were obtained from AMPLIFY and AMPLIFY-EXT clinical trials; health outcomes were measured as life years gained (LYG) and quality-adjusted life years (QALY). The chosen perspective of this analysis has been the Spanish National Health System (NHS). Drugs, management of VTE and complications costs were obtained from several Spanish data sources (€, 2014). A 3% discount rate was applied to health outcomes and costs. Univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analyses (SA) were performed in order to assess the robustness of the results. Results: Apixaban was the most effective therapy with 7.182 LYG and 5.865 QALY, versus 7.160 LYG and 5.838 QALYs with LMWH/VKA. Furthermore, apixaban had a lower total cost (€13,374.70 vs €13,738.30). Probabilistic SA confirmed dominance of apixaban (led to better health outcomes with less associated costs) in 89% of the simulations. Conclusions: Apixaban 5 mg/12h versus LMWH/VKA was an efficient therapeutic strategy for the treatment and prevention of recurrences of VTE from the NHS perspective.

Equity research - Brisa

Mestrado em Finanças

Assistência na Doença aos Militares das Forças Armadas (ADM) – Que futuro?

Este trabalho tem por objetivo analisar a sustentabilidade da Assistência na Doença aos Militares (ADM), enquanto sistema autofinanciável. O autofinanciamento da ADM, com recurso exclusivo aos descontos efetuados pelos beneficiários, está, aparentemente em contradição com as disposições legais associadas à condição militar e isenta o Estado das suas obrigações. Esta é uma temática atual, cuja análise justifica um tratamento específico e singular, em consonância com as particularidades da condição militar, devendo, por isso, ser ponderados os diversos fatores condicionantes. Assim, partindo das despesas processadas pela ADM face às fontes de financiamento existentes, tentamos responder à questão central formulada - “Em que medida a ADM é sustentável e autofinanciável, com recurso exclusivo aos descontos dos beneficiários?”. Analisamos também se o regime optativo coloca em causa a sustentabilidade da ADM e em que medida esta decisão é condicionada pela perceção de que as disposições legais, relativas à condição militar, estão ou não a ser cumpridas. Concluímos que a ADM não é um sistema autofinanciável com recurso exclusivo aos descontos dos beneficiários, pelo menos por agora, pois suporta despesas que não são sua responsabilidade. Verificamos também que a maioria dos inquiridos, em caso de regime optativo, optaria por não descontar para a ADM, considerando o desconto elevado. Abstract: The Self-financing of the assistance in disease to Military (ADM) , with exclusive resource at the beneficiaries discounts , is disassociated from the military condition and relieves the State of its obligations. This is a current topic, whose analysis justifies specific and unique treatment in consonance with the characteristics of the military condition and should therefore be considered the various conditioning factors. This work aims to analyze the ADM sustainability, while a self-financing system. Thus, based on the expenses processed by ADM, as compared with existing funding sources, we try to answer the central question formulated - "To what extent ADM is sustainable and self-financing, with exclusive resource at the discounts of beneficiaries?". We also analysed if the optional regime puts into question the sustainability of ADM and to what extent this decision is conditioned by the perception that the legal provisions relating to the military condition, are being met or not. We conclude that ADM is not a self-financing system, with exclusive resource at the discounts of beneficiaries, at least for now and that supports expenses that are not their responsibility. We also verified that the majority of the inquired, would choose not discount for ADM, if optional regime is available, and considers the discount high.

Huambo Microbiology Laboratory : economical and financial viability

Mestrado em Finanças

Amblyseius largoensis in controlling red palm mite under semi-field conditions.

The objective of this work was to evaluate the efficiency of two Amblyseius largoensis (Acari:Phytoseiidae) populations in controlling Raoiella indica (Acari: Tenuipalpidae). The treatments were: release of A. largoensis from the island of La Réunion; release of A. largoensis from the state of Roraima, Brazil; and a control, without predator release. Initially, 20 predators were released per plant; three other releases were done at a rate of ten adults per plant, at 46, 135, and 156 days after the first release. The population densities were estimated every 20 days, during six months. Both A. largoensis populations evaluated are not sufficiently efficient to control the R. indica population.

Perpetual debt valuation: the net present value myopia

Would you prefer to receive a fixed rent for a period of 50 years, 75 years or perpetually? Well, if you have chosen the perpetual option, you are absolutely right. However, when considering a mathematical and financial approach, they may all end up roughly the same whenever the Net Present Value (NPV) is approximately identical. It makes common sense to choose the perpetual option even if the NPV exhibits myopia when computing the discount value of a fixed yearly rent. After a certain period, the discount value becomes approximately the same even when adding more yearly fixed rents. Corporations and governments issue perpetual bonds while recognizing these may not represent a very good financing strategy and thus implying that most of these issues are either callable or convertible on the issuer’s request. In approaching the existing perpetual debt related NPV myopia, this paper holds two main goals: firstly, we intend to study the behaviours of perpetual debt yields against other perpetual instruments and, secondly, we consider the financial methods for assessing the value of money before proposing a formula adjustment that might serve to overcome default NPV when evaluating fixed rents in perpetuity.