Estimation of the extreme flash flood evolution in Barcelona county from 1351 to 2005

Every year, flash floods cause economic losses and major problems for undertaking daily activity in the Catalonia region (NE Spain). Sometimes catastrophic damage and casualties occur. When a long term analysis of floods is undertaken, a question arises regarding the changing role of the vulnerability and the hazard in risk evolution. This paper sets out to give some information to deal with this question, on the basis of analysis of all the floods that have occurred in Barcelona county (Catalonia) since the 14th century, as well as the flooded area, urban evolution, impacts and the weather conditions for any of most severe events. With this objective, the identification and classification of historical floods, and characterisation of flash-floods among these, have been undertaken. Besides this, the main meteorological factors associated with recent flash floods in this city and neighbouring regions are well-known. On the other hand, the identification of rainfall trends that could explain the historical evolution of flood hazard occurrence in this city has been analysed. Finally, identification of the influence of urban development on the vulnerability to floods has been carried out. Barcelona city has been selected thanks to its long continuous data series (daily rainfall data series, since 1854; one of the longest rainfall rate series of Europe, since 1921) and for the accurate historical archive information that is available (since the Roman Empire for the urban evolution). The evolution of flood occurrence shows the existence of oscillations in the earlier and later modern-age periods that can be attributed to climatic variability, evolution of the perception threshold and changes in vulnerability. A great increase of vulnerability can be assumed for the period 1850¿1900. The analysis of the time evolution for the Barcelona rainfall series (1854¿2000) shows that no trend exists, although, due to changes in urban planning, flash-floods impact has altered over this time. The number of catastrophic flash floods has diminished, although the extraordinary ones have increased.

Heel and toe clearance estimation for gait analysis using wireless inertial sensors.

Tripping is considered a major cause of fall in older people. Therefore, foot clearance (i.e., height of the foot above ground during swing phase) could be a key factor to better understand the complex relationship between gait and falls. This paper presents a new method to estimate clearance using a foot-worn and wireless inertial sensor system. The method relies on the computation of foot orientation and trajectory from sensors signal data fusion, combined with the temporal detection of toe-off and heel-strike events. Based on a kinematic model that automatically estimates sensor position relative to the foot, heel and toe trajectories are estimated. 2-D and 3-D models are presented with different solving approaches, and validated against an optical motion capture system on 12 healthy adults performing short walking trials at self-selected, slow, and fast speed. Parameters corresponding to local minimum and maximum of heel and toe clearance were extracted and showed accuracy ± precision of 4.1 ± 2.3 cm for maximal heel clearance and 1.3 ± 0.9 cm for minimal toe clearance compared to the reference. The system is lightweight, wireless, easy to wear and to use, and provide a new and useful tool for routine clinical assessment of gait outside a dedicated laboratory.

Front-crawl instantaneous velocity estimation using a wearable inertial measurement unit.

Monitoring the performance is a crucial task for elite sports during both training and competition. Velocity is the key parameter of performance in swimming, but swimming performance evaluation remains immature due to the complexities of measurements in water. The purpose of this study is to use a single inertial measurement unit (IMU) to estimate front crawl velocity. Thirty swimmers, equipped with an IMU on the sacrum, each performed four different velocity trials of 25 m in ascending order. A tethered speedometer was used as the velocity measurement reference. Deployment of biomechanical constraints of front crawl locomotion and change detection framework on acceleration signal paved the way for a drift-free integration of forward acceleration using IMU to estimate the swimmers velocity. A difference of 0.6 ± 5.4 cm · s(-1) on mean cycle velocity and an RMS difference of 11.3 cm · s(-1) in instantaneous velocity estimation were observed between IMU and the reference. The most important contribution of the study is a new practical tool for objective evaluation of swimming performance. A single body-worn IMU provides timely feedback for coaches and sport scientists without any complicated setup or restraining the swimmer's natural technique.

Gaussian process framework for pervasive estimation of swimming velocity with body-worn IMU

Presented is an accurate swimming velocity estimation method using an inertial measurement unit (IMU) by employing a simple biomechanical constraint of motion along with Gaussian process regression to deal with sensor inherent errors. Experimental validation shows a velocity RMS error of 9.0 cm/s and high linear correlation when compared with a commercial tethered reference system. The results confirm the practicality of the presented method to estimate swimming velocity using a single low-cost, body-worn IMU.

Time-lapse and probabilistic inversion strategies for plane-wave electromagnetic data.

L'utilisation efficace des systèmes géothermaux, la séquestration du CO2 pour limiter le changement climatique et la prévention de l'intrusion d'eau salée dans les aquifères costaux ne sont que quelques exemples qui démontrent notre besoin en technologies nouvelles pour suivre l'évolution des processus souterrains à partir de la surface. Un défi majeur est d'assurer la caractérisation et l'optimisation des performances de ces technologies à différentes échelles spatiales et temporelles. Les méthodes électromagnétiques (EM) d'ondes planes sont sensibles à la conductivité électrique du sous-sol et, par conséquent, à la conductivité électrique des fluides saturant la roche, à la présence de fractures connectées, à la température et aux matériaux géologiques. Ces méthodes sont régies par des équations valides sur de larges gammes de fréquences, permettant détudier de manières analogues des processus allant de quelques mètres sous la surface jusqu'à plusieurs kilomètres de profondeur. Néanmoins, ces méthodes sont soumises à une perte de résolution avec la profondeur à cause des propriétés diffusives du champ électromagnétique. Pour cette raison, l'estimation des modèles du sous-sol par ces méthodes doit prendre en compte des informations a priori afin de contraindre les modèles autant que possible et de permettre la quantification des incertitudes de ces modèles de façon appropriée. Dans la présente thèse, je développe des approches permettant la caractérisation statique et dynamique du sous-sol à l'aide d'ondes EM planes. Dans une première partie, je présente une approche déterministe permettant de réaliser des inversions répétées dans le temps (time-lapse) de données d'ondes EM planes en deux dimensions. Cette stratégie est basée sur l'incorporation dans l'algorithme d'informations a priori en fonction des changements du modèle de conductivité électrique attendus. Ceci est réalisé en intégrant une régularisation stochastique et des contraintes flexibles par rapport à la gamme des changements attendus en utilisant les multiplicateurs de Lagrange. J'utilise des normes différentes de la norme l2 pour contraindre la structure du modèle et obtenir des transitions abruptes entre les régions du model qui subissent des changements dans le temps et celles qui n'en subissent pas. Aussi, j'incorpore une stratégie afin d'éliminer les erreurs systématiques de données time-lapse. Ce travail a mis en évidence l'amélioration de la caractérisation des changements temporels par rapport aux approches classiques qui réalisent des inversions indépendantes à chaque pas de temps et comparent les modèles. Dans la seconde partie de cette thèse, j'adopte un formalisme bayésien et je teste la possibilité de quantifier les incertitudes sur les paramètres du modèle dans l'inversion d'ondes EM planes. Pour ce faire, je présente une stratégie d'inversion probabiliste basée sur des pixels à deux dimensions pour des inversions de données d'ondes EM planes et de tomographies de résistivité électrique (ERT) séparées et jointes. Je compare les incertitudes des paramètres du modèle en considérant différents types d'information a priori sur la structure du modèle et différentes fonctions de vraisemblance pour décrire les erreurs sur les données. Les résultats indiquent que la régularisation du modèle est nécessaire lorsqu'on a à faire à un large nombre de paramètres car cela permet d'accélérer la convergence des chaînes et d'obtenir des modèles plus réalistes. Cependent, ces contraintes mènent à des incertitudes d'estimations plus faibles, ce qui implique des distributions a posteriori qui ne contiennent pas le vrai modèledans les régions ou` la méthode présente une sensibilité limitée. Cette situation peut être améliorée en combinant des méthodes d'ondes EM planes avec d'autres méthodes complémentaires telles que l'ERT. De plus, je montre que le poids de régularisation des paramètres et l'écart-type des erreurs sur les données peuvent être retrouvés par une inversion probabiliste. Finalement, j'évalue la possibilité de caractériser une distribution tridimensionnelle d'un panache de traceur salin injecté dans le sous-sol en réalisant une inversion probabiliste time-lapse tridimensionnelle d'ondes EM planes. Etant donné que les inversions probabilistes sont très coûteuses en temps de calcul lorsque l'espace des paramètres présente une grande dimension, je propose une stratégie de réduction du modèle ou` les coefficients de décomposition des moments de Legendre du panache de traceur injecté ainsi que sa position sont estimés. Pour ce faire, un modèle de résistivité de base est nécessaire. Il peut être obtenu avant l'expérience time-lapse. Un test synthétique montre que la méthodologie marche bien quand le modèle de résistivité de base est caractérisé correctement. Cette méthodologie est aussi appliquée à un test de trac¸age par injection d'une solution saline et d'acides réalisé dans un système géothermal en Australie, puis comparée à une inversion time-lapse tridimensionnelle réalisée selon une approche déterministe. L'inversion probabiliste permet de mieux contraindre le panache du traceur salin gr^ace à la grande quantité d'informations a priori incluse dans l'algorithme. Néanmoins, les changements de conductivités nécessaires pour expliquer les changements observés dans les données sont plus grands que ce qu'expliquent notre connaissance actuelle des phénomenès physiques. Ce problème peut être lié à la qualité limitée du modèle de résistivité de base utilisé, indiquant ainsi que des efforts plus grands devront être fournis dans le futur pour obtenir des modèles de base de bonne qualité avant de réaliser des expériences dynamiques. Les études décrites dans cette thèse montrent que les méthodes d'ondes EM planes sont très utiles pour caractériser et suivre les variations temporelles du sous-sol sur de larges échelles. Les présentes approches améliorent l'évaluation des modèles obtenus, autant en termes d'incorporation d'informations a priori, qu'en termes de quantification d'incertitudes a posteriori. De plus, les stratégies développées peuvent être appliquées à d'autres méthodes géophysiques, et offrent une grande flexibilité pour l'incorporation d'informations additionnelles lorsqu'elles sont disponibles. -- The efficient use of geothermal systems, the sequestration of CO2 to mitigate climate change, and the prevention of seawater intrusion in coastal aquifers are only some examples that demonstrate the need for novel technologies to monitor subsurface processes from the surface. A main challenge is to assure optimal performance of such technologies at different temporal and spatial scales. Plane-wave electromagnetic (EM) methods are sensitive to subsurface electrical conductivity and consequently to fluid conductivity, fracture connectivity, temperature, and rock mineralogy. These methods have governing equations that are the same over a large range of frequencies, thus allowing to study in an analogous manner processes on scales ranging from few meters close to the surface down to several hundreds of kilometers depth. Unfortunately, they suffer from a significant resolution loss with depth due to the diffusive nature of the electromagnetic fields. Therefore, estimations of subsurface models that use these methods should incorporate a priori information to better constrain the models, and provide appropriate measures of model uncertainty. During my thesis, I have developed approaches to improve the static and dynamic characterization of the subsurface with plane-wave EM methods. In the first part of this thesis, I present a two-dimensional deterministic approach to perform time-lapse inversion of plane-wave EM data. The strategy is based on the incorporation of prior information into the inversion algorithm regarding the expected temporal changes in electrical conductivity. This is done by incorporating a flexible stochastic regularization and constraints regarding the expected ranges of the changes by using Lagrange multipliers. I use non-l2 norms to penalize the model update in order to obtain sharp transitions between regions that experience temporal changes and regions that do not. I also incorporate a time-lapse differencing strategy to remove systematic errors in the time-lapse inversion. This work presents improvements in the characterization of temporal changes with respect to the classical approach of performing separate inversions and computing differences between the models. In the second part of this thesis, I adopt a Bayesian framework and use Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations to quantify model parameter uncertainty in plane-wave EM inversion. For this purpose, I present a two-dimensional pixel-based probabilistic inversion strategy for separate and joint inversions of plane-wave EM and electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) data. I compare the uncertainties of the model parameters when considering different types of prior information on the model structure and different likelihood functions to describe the data errors. The results indicate that model regularization is necessary when dealing with a large number of model parameters because it helps to accelerate the convergence of the chains and leads to more realistic models. These constraints also lead to smaller uncertainty estimates, which imply posterior distributions that do not include the true underlying model in regions where the method has limited sensitivity. This situation can be improved by combining planewave EM methods with complimentary geophysical methods such as ERT. In addition, I show that an appropriate regularization weight and the standard deviation of the data errors can be retrieved by the MCMC inversion. Finally, I evaluate the possibility of characterizing the three-dimensional distribution of an injected water plume by performing three-dimensional time-lapse MCMC inversion of planewave EM data. Since MCMC inversion involves a significant computational burden in high parameter dimensions, I propose a model reduction strategy where the coefficients of a Legendre moment decomposition of the injected water plume and its location are estimated. For this purpose, a base resistivity model is needed which is obtained prior to the time-lapse experiment. A synthetic test shows that the methodology works well when the base resistivity model is correctly characterized. The methodology is also applied to an injection experiment performed in a geothermal system in Australia, and compared to a three-dimensional time-lapse inversion performed within a deterministic framework. The MCMC inversion better constrains the water plumes due to the larger amount of prior information that is included in the algorithm. The conductivity changes needed to explain the time-lapse data are much larger than what is physically possible based on present day understandings. This issue may be related to the base resistivity model used, therefore indicating that more efforts should be given to obtain high-quality base models prior to dynamic experiments. The studies described herein give clear evidence that plane-wave EM methods are useful to characterize and monitor the subsurface at a wide range of scales. The presented approaches contribute to an improved appraisal of the obtained models, both in terms of the incorporation of prior information in the algorithms and the posterior uncertainty quantification. In addition, the developed strategies can be applied to other geophysical methods, and offer great flexibility to incorporate additional information when available.

Genetic differentiation in Silene dioica metapopulations: estimation of spatiotemporal effects in a successional plant species

Silene dioica is a diploid, dioecious, perennial, insect-pollinated herb and part of the deciduous phase of primary succession in Skeppsvik Archipelago, Gulf of Bothnia, Sweden. These islands are composed of material deposited and left underwater by melting ice at the end of the last ice age. A rapid and relatively constant rate of land uplift of 0.9 cm per year continually creates new islands available for colonization by plants. Because the higher deposits appear first, islands differ in age. Because it is possible to estimate the ages of islands and populations of plant species belonging to early stages of succession, the genetic dynamics occurring within an age-structured metapopulation can be investigated in this archipelago. Fifty-two island populations of S. dioica of known ages, sizes, and distances from each other were studied through electrophoretic data. A number of factors increase the degree of genetic differentiation among these island populations relative to an island model at equilibrium. Newly founded populations were more differentiated than those of intermediate age, which suggests that colonization dynamics increase genetic variance among populations. The very old populations, which decrease in size as they approach extinction, were more differentiated than intermediate-aged populations. Isolation by distance occurs in this system. Colonizers are likely to come from more than one source, and the migrant pool model best explains colonization events in the archipelago. Degree of environmental exposure also affects population differentiation.

Transformation kernel density estimation of actuarial loss functions

[cat] Es presenta un estimador nucli transformat que és adequat per a distribucions de cua pesada. Utilitzant una transformació basada en la distribució de probabilitat Beta l’elecció del paràmetre de finestra és molt directa. Es presenta una aplicació a dades d’assegurances i es mostra com calcular el Valor en Risc.

Vacancy and interstitial depth profiles in ion-implanted silicon

An experimental method of studying shifts between concentration-versus-depth profiles of vacancy- and interstitial-type defects in ion-implanted silicon is demonstrated. The concept is based on deep level transient spectroscopy measurements utilizing the filling pulse variation technique. The vacancy profile, represented by the vacancy¿oxygen center, and the interstitial profile, represented by the interstitial carbon¿substitutional carbon pair, are obtained at the same sample temperature by varying the duration of the filling pulse. The effect of the capture in the Debye tail has been extensively studied and taken into account. Thus, the two profiles can be recorded with a high relative depth resolution. Using low doses, point defects have been introduced in lightly doped float zone n-type silicon by implantation with 6.8 MeV boron ions and 680 keV and 1.3 MeV protons at room temperature. The effect of the angle of ion incidence has also been investigated. For all implantation conditions the peak of the interstitial profile is displaced towards larger depths compared to that of the vacancy profile. The amplitude of this displacement increases as the width of the initial point defect distribution increases. This behavior is explained by a simple model where the preferential forward momentum of recoiling silicon atoms and the highly efficient direct recombination of primary point defects are taken into account.

Comparison of estimation methods of soil strength in five soils

In agriculture, the soil strength is used to describe the susceptibility to deformation by pressure caused by agricultural machine. The purpose of this study was to compare different methods for estimating the inherent soil strength and to identify their suitability for the evaluation of load support capacity, compaction susceptibility and root growth. The physical, chemical, mineralogical and intrinsic strength properties of seven soil samples, collected from five sampling pits at different locations in Brazil, were measured. Four clay (CS) and three sandy clay loam (SCL) soils were used. The clay soils were collected on a farm in Santo Ângelo, RS (28 º 16 ' 16 '' S; 54 º 13 ' 11 '' W 290 m); A and B horizons at the Universidade Federal de Lavras, Lavras, MG (21 º 13 ' 47 '' S; 44 º 58 ' 6'' W; 918 m) and on the farm Sygenta, in Uberlandia, MG (18 º 58 ' 37 '' S; 48 º 12 ' 05 '' W 866 m). The sandy clay loam soils were collected in Aracruz, ES (19 º 47 ' 10 '' S; 40 º 16 ' 29 '' W 81 m), and on the farm Xavier, Lavras, MG (21 º 13 ' 24 '' S; 45 º 05 ' 00 '' W; 844 m). Soil strength was estimated based on measurements of: (a) a pneumatic consolidometer, (b) manual pocket (non-rotating) penetrometer; and (c) automatic (rotating) penetrometer. The results of soil strength properties were similar by the three methods. The soil structure had a significant influence on soil strength. Results of measurements with both the manual pocket and the electric penetrometer were similar, emphasizing the influence of soil texture. The data showed that, to enhance the reliability of predictions of preconsolidation pressure by penetrometers, it is better to separate the soils into the different classes, rather than analyze them jointly. It can be concluded that the consolidometer method, although expensive, is the best when evaluations of load support capacity and compaction susceptibility of soil samples are desired.

Estimation of water retention and availability in soils of Rio Grande do Sul

Dispersed information on water retention and availability in soils may be compiled in databases to generate pedotransfer functions. The objectives of this study were: to generate pedotransfer functions to estimate soil water retention based on easily measurable soil properties; to evaluate the efficiency of existing pedotransfer functions for different geographical regions for the estimation of water retention in soils of Rio Grande do Sul (RS); and to estimate plant-available water capacity based on soil particle-size distribution. Two databases were set up for soil properties, including water retention: one based on literature data (725 entries) and the other with soil data from an irrigation scheduling and management system (239 entries). From the literature database, pedotransfer functions were generated, nine pedofunctions available in the literature were evaluated and the plant-available water capacity was calculated. The coefficient of determination of some pedotransfer functions ranged from 0.56 to 0.66. Pedotransfer functions generated based on soils from other regions were not appropriate for estimating the water retention for RS soils. The plant-available water content varied with soil texture classes, from 0.089 kg kg-1 for the sand class to 0.191 kg kg-1 for the silty clay class. These variations were more related to sand and silt than to clay content. The soils with a greater silt/clay ratio, which were less weathered and with a greater quantity of smectite clay minerals, had high water retention and plant-available water capacity.

Transformation kernel density estimation of actuarial loss functions

[cat] Es presenta un estimador nucli transformat que és adequat per a distribucions de cua pesada. Utilitzant una transformació basada en la distribució de probabilitat Beta l’elecció del paràmetre de finestra és molt directa. Es presenta una aplicació a dades d’assegurances i es mostra com calcular el Valor en Risc.

Linear least squares estimation of the first order moving average parameter

We propose an iterative procedure to minimize the sum of squares function which avoids the nonlinear nature of estimating the first order moving average parameter and provides a closed form of the estimator. The asymptotic properties of the method are discussed and the consistency of the linear least squares estimator is proved for the invertible case. We perform various Monte Carlo experiments in order to compare the sample properties of the linear least squares estimator with its nonlinear counterpart for the conditional and unconditional cases. Some examples are also discussed

Portable penetrometer for agricultural soil: sensitivity test to identify critical compaction depth

To express the negative effects of soil compaction, some researchers use critical values for soil mechanical strength that severely impair plant growth. The aim of this study was to identify this critical compaction depth, to test the functionality of a new, portable penetrometer developed from a spring dynamometer, and compare it to an electronic penetrometer traditionally used in compaction studies of agricultural soils. Three soils with distinct texture were conventionally tilled using a disk plow, and cultivated with different plant species. The critical soil resistance defined to establish critical compaction depth was equal to 1.5 MPa. The results of the new equipment were similar to the electronic penetrometer, indicating its viability as a tool for assessing the soil physical conditions for plant growth.