An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the Agriculture, Energy and Health sectors in Trinidad and Tobago

This report analyses the agriculture, energy, and health sectors in Trinidad and Tobago to assess the potential economic impacts of climate change on the sectors. The fundamental aim of this report is to assist with the development of strategies to deal with the potential impact of climate change on Trinidad and Tobago. It also has the potential to provide essential input for identifying and preparing policies and strategies to help advance the Caribbean subregion closer to solving problems associated with climate change and attaining individual and regional sustainable development goals. Some of the key anticipated impacts of climate change for the Caribbean include elevated air and sea-surface temperatures, sea-level rise, possible changes in extreme events and a reduction in freshwater resources. The economic impact of climate change on the three sectors was estimated for the A2 and B2 IPCC scenarios until 2050. An exploration of various adaptation strategies was also undertaken for each sector using standard evaluation techniques. The study of the impact of climate change on the agriculture sector focused on root crops, green vegetables and fisheries. For these sectors combined, the cumulative loss under the A2 scenario is calculated as approximately B$2.24 and approximately B$1.72 under the B2 scenario by 2050. This is equivalent to 1.37% and 1.05% of the 2008 GDP under the A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively. Given the potential for significant damage to the agriculture sector a large number of potential adaptation measures were considered. Out of these a short-list of 10 potential options were selected by applying 10 evaluation criteria. All of the adaptation strategies showed positive benefits. The analysis indicate that the options with the highest net benefits are: (1) Building on-farm water storage, (2) Mainstreaming climate change issues into agricultural management and (3) Using drip irrigation. Other attractive options include water harvesting. The policy decisions by governments should include these assessments, the omitted intangible benefits, as well as the provision of other social goals such as employment. The analysis of the energy sector has shown that the economic impact of climate change during 2011-2050 is similar under the A2 (US$142.88 million) and B2 (US$134.83 million) scenarios with A2 scenario having a slightly higher cost (0.737% of 2009 GDP) than the B2 scenario (0.695% of 2009 GDP) for the period. On the supply side, analyses indicate that Trinidad and Tobago’s energy sector will be susceptible to the climate change policies of major energy-importing countries (the United States of America and China), and especially to their renewable energy strategies. Implementation of foreign oil substitution policy by the United States of America will result in a decline in Trinidad and Tobago’s Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) export (equivalent to 2.2% reduction in 2009 GDP) unless an alternative market is secured for the lost United States of America market. China, with its rapid economic growth and the highest population in the world, offers a potential replacement market for Trinidad and Tobago’s LNG export. In this context the A2 scenario will offer the best option for Trinidad and Tobago’s energy sector. The cost-benefit analysis undertaken on selected adaptation strategies reveal that the benefit-cost ratio of replacing electric water heaters with solar water heaters is the most cost-effective. It was also found that the introduction of Compact Fluorescent Light (CFL) and Variable Refrigerant Volume (VRV) air conditioners surpasses the projected cost of increased electricity consumption due to climate change, and provides an economic rationale for the adoption of these adaptation options even in a situation of increased electricity consumption occasioned by climate change. Finally, the conversion of motor fleets to Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) is a cost-effective adaptation option for the transport sector, although it has a high initial cost of implementation and the highest per capita among the four adaptation options evaluated. To investigate the effect of climate change on the health sector dengue fever, leptospirosis, food borne illnesses, and gastroenteritis were examined. The total number of new dengue cases for the period 2008 to 2050 was 204,786 for BAU, 153,725 for A2 and 131,890 for the B2 scenario. With regard to the results for leptospirosis, A2 and B2 seem to be following a similar path with total number of new cases in the A2 scenario being 9,727 and 9,218 cases under the B2 scenario. Although incidence levels in the BAU scenario coincided with those of A2 and B2 prior to 2020, they are somewhat lower post 2020. A similar picture emerges for the scenarios as they relate to food-borne illnesses and to gastroenteritis. Specifically for food-borne illnesses, the BAU scenario recorded 27,537 cases, the A2 recorded 28,568 cases and the B2 recorded 28,679 cases. The focus on the selected sources of morbidity in the health sector has highlighted the fact that the vulnerability of the country’s health sector to climate change does not depend solely on exogenously derived impacts, but also on the behaviour and practices among the population. It is clear that the vulnerability which became evident in the analysis of the impacts on dengue fever, leptospirosis and food-borne illnesses is not restricted solely to climate or other external factors. The most important adaptation strategy being recommended targets lifestyle, behaviour and attitude changes. The population needs to be encouraged to alter their behaviours and practices so as to minimise their exposure to harmful outcomes as it relates to the incidence of these diseases.

Climate change and carbon markets: implications for developing countries

While the Kyoto Protocol provided a framework for reducing the greenhouse gas emissions of industrialized nations, current climate change negotiations envisage future commitments for major co2 emitters among developing countries. This document uses an updated version of the gtap-e general equilibrium model to analyse the economic implications of reducing carbon emissions under different carbon trading scenarios. The participation of developing countries such as China and India would reduce emissions trading costs. Impacts in Latin America would depend on whether a country is an energy exporter or importer and whether the United States reduces emissions. Welfare impacts might be negative depending on the carbon trading scheme adopted and a country’s trading partners.

Análise da dinâmica de preços entre os mercados futuros de grão, farelo e óleo de soja na China e Estados Unidos

Pós-graduação em Agronomia (Energia na Agricultura) - FCA

O comércio internacional de tecnologias ambientais: a inserção do Brasil e da China

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

How to progress from discourse to practice? a new agenda for change in medical schools into the next decade

In the context of medical school instruction, the segmented approach of a focus on specialties and excessive use of technology seem to hamper the development of the professional-patient relationship and an understanding of the ethics of this relationship. The real world presents complexities that require multiple approaches. Engagement in the community where health competence is developed allows extending the usefulness of what is learned. Health services are spaces where the relationship between theory and practice in health care are real and where the social role of the university can be revealed. Yet some competencies are still lacking and may require an explicit agenda to enact. Ten topics are presented for focus here: environmental awareness, involvement of students in medical school, social networks, interprofessional learning, new technologies for the management of care, virtual reality, working with errors, training in management for results, concept of leadership, and internationalization of schools. Potential barriers to this agenda are an underinvestment in ambulatory care infrastructure and community-based health care facilities, as well as in information technology offered at these facilities; an inflexible departmental culture; and an environment centered on a discipline-based medical curriculum.

Role of the stratospheric dynamics in the southern hemisphere long-term climate change

Il raffreddamento stratosferico associato alla riduzione dell’ozono nelle regioni polari induce un rafforzamento dei venti occidentali nella bassa stratosfera, uno spostamento verso il polo e un’intensificazione del jet troposferico delle medie latitudini. Si riscontra una proiezione di questi cambiamenti a lungo termine sulla polarità ad alto indice di un modo di variabilità climatica, il Southern Annular Mode, alla superficie, dove i venti occidentali alle medie latitudini guidano la Corrente Circumpolare Antartica influenzando la circolazione oceanica meridionale e probabilmente l’estensione del ghiaccio marino ed i flussi di carbonio aria-mare nell’Oceano Meridionale. Una limitata rappresentazione dei processi stratosferici nei modelli climatici per la simulazione del passato e la previsione dei cambiamenti climatici futuri, sembrerebbe portare ad un errore nella rappresentazione dei cambiamenti troposferici a lungo termine nelle rispettive simulazioni. In questa tesi viene condotta un’analisi multi-model mettendo insieme i dati di output derivati da diverse simulazioni di modelli climatici accoppiati oceano-atmosfera, che partecipano al progetto CMIP5, con l'obiettivo di comprendere come le diverse rappresentazioni della dinamica stratosferica possano portare ad una differente rappresentazione dei cambiamenti climatici alla superficie. Vengono utilizzati modelli “High Top” (HT), che hanno una buona rappresentazione della dinamica stratosferica, e modelli “Low Top” (LT), che invece non ne hanno. I risultati vengono confrontati con le reanalisi meteorologiche globali disponibili (ERA-40). Viene mostrato come la rappresentazione e l’intensità del raffreddamento radiativo iniziale e di quello dinamico nella bassa stratosfera, nei modelli, siano i fattori chiave che controllano la successiva risposta troposferica, e come il raffreddamento stesso dipenda dalla rappresentazione della dinamica stratosferica. Si cerca inoltre di differenziare i modelli in base alla loro rappresentazione del raffreddamento radiativo e dinamico nella bassa stratosfera e alla risposta del jet troposferico. Nei modelli, si riscontra che il trend del jet nell'intera troposfera è significativamente correlato linearmente al raffreddamento stesso della bassa stratosfera.

Non-Gaussianities from a sudden change in the inflaton speed of sound

Il concetto di inflazione e' stato introdotto nei primi anni ’80 per risolvere alcuni problemi del modello cosmologico standard, quali quello dell’orizzonte e quello della piattezza. Le predizioni dei piu' semplici modelli inflazionari sono in buon accordo con le osservazioni cosmologiche piu'recenti, che confermano sezioni spaziali piatte e uno spettro di fluttuazioni primordiali con statistica vicina a quella gaussiana. I piu' recenti dati di Planck, pur in ottimo accordo con una semplice legge di potenza per lo spettro a scale k > 0.08 Mpc−1 , sembrano indicare possibili devi- azioni a scale maggiori, seppur non a un livello statisticamente significativo a causa della varianza cosmica. Queste deviazioni nello spettro possono essere spiegate da modelli inflazionari che includono una violazione della condizione di lento rotolamento (slow-roll ) e che hanno precise predizioni per lo spettro. Per uno dei primi modelli, caratterizzato da una discontinuita' nella derivata prima del potenziale proposto da Starobinsky, lo spettro ed il bispettro delle fluttuazioni primordiali sono noti analiticamente. In questa tesi estenderemo tale modello a termini cinetici non standard, calcolandone analiticamente il bispettro e confrontando i risultati ottenuti con quanto presente in letteratura. In particolare, l’introduzione di un termine cinetico non standard permettera' di ottenere una velocita' del suono per l’inflatone non banale, che consentira' di estendere i risultati noti, riguardanti il bispettro, per questo modello. Innanzitutto studieremo le correzioni al bispettro noto in letteratura dovute al fatto che in questo caso la velocita' del suono e' una funzione dipendente dal tempo; successivamente, cercheremo di calcolare analiticamente un ulteriore contributo al bispettro proporzionale alla derivata prima della velocita' del suono (che per il modello originale e' nullo).

Indigenous knowledge related to climate variability and change: insights from droughts in semi-arid areas of former Makueni District, Kenya

This article describes the indigenous knowledge (IK) that agro-pastoralists in larger Makueni District, Kenya hold and how they use it to monitor, mitigate and adapt to drought. It examines ways of integrating IK into formal monitoring, how to enhance its value and acceptability. Data was collected through target interviews, group discussions and questionnaires covering 127 households in eight villages. Daily rainfall data from 1961–2003 were analysed. Results show that agro-pastoralists hold IK on indicators of rainfall variability; they believe in IK efficacy and they rely on them. Because agro-pastoralists consult additional sources, the authors interpret that IK forms a basic knowledge frame within which agro-pastoralists position and interpret meteorological forecasts. Only a few agro-pastoralists adapt their practices in anticipation of IK-based forecasts partly due to the conditioning of the actors to the high rainfall variability characteristic of the area and partly due to lack of resources. Non-drought factors such as poverty, inadequate resources and lack of preparedness expose agro-pastoralists to drought impacts and limit their adaptive capacity. These factors need to be understood and effectively addressed to increase agro-pastoralists’ decision options and the influence of IK-based forecasts on their decision-making patterns. The limited intergenerational transfer of IK currently threatens its existence in the longer term. One way to ensure its continued existence and use is to integrate IK into the education curriculum and to link IK with formal climate change research through the participation of the local people. However, further studies are necessary to address the reliability and validity of the identified IK indicators of climate variability and change.

Mainstreaming a Decade's Experiences in Watershed Management to Meet the Challenges of Environmental Change in the Hindu Kush-Himalayas

Like other mountain areas in the world, the Hindu Kush-Himalayan (HKH) region is particularly vulnerable to climate change. Ongoing climate change processes are projected to have a high impact on the HKH region, and accelerated warming has been reported in the Himalayas. These climate change impacts will be superimposed on a variety of other environmental and social stresses, adding to the complexity of the issues. The sustainable use of natural resources is crucial to the long-term stability of the fragile mountain ecosystems in the HKH and to sustain the socio-ecological resilience that forms the basis of sustainable livelihoods in the region. In order to be prepared for these challenges, it is important to take stock of previous research. The ‘People and Resource Dynamics Project’ (PARDYP), implemented by International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), provides a variety of participatory options for sustainable land management in the HKH region. The PARDYD project was a research for development project that operated in five middle mountain watersheds across the HKH – two in Nepal and one each in China, India, and Pakistan. The project ran from 1996 to 2006 and focused on addressing the marginalisation of mountain farmers, the use and availability of water, issues relating to land and forest degradation and declining soil fertility, the speed of regeneration of degraded land, and the ability of the natural environment to support the growing needs of the region’s increasing population. A key learning from the project was that the opinion of land users is crucial to the acceptance (and, therefore, successful application) of new technologies and approaches. A major challenge at the end of every project is to promote knowledge sharing and encourage the cross-fertilization of ideas (e.g., in the case of PARDYP, with other middle mountain inhabitants and practitioners in the region) and to share lessons learned with a wider audience. This paper will highlight how the PARDYP findings, including ways of addressing soil fertility and water scarcity, have been mainstreamed in the HKH region through capacity building (international, regional, and national training courses), networking, and the provision of backstopping services. In addition, in view of the challenges in watershed management in the HKH connected to environmental change, the lessons learned from the PARDYP are now being used by ICMOD to define and package climate change proof technology options to address climate change adaptation.

Legislative Legacy: Big Changes in Legislative Article of 1972 Constitution -- Jerry Loendorf, Arlyne Reichert & Rich Bechtel “In the Crucible of Change”

The fulcrum upon which were leveraged many of the dramatic progressive changes in Montana that are documented "In the Crucible of Change" series was the lead up to, preparation, writing and adoption of the 1972 Montana Constitution. As Montana citizens exhibited their concern over the dysfunctional state government in MT under its 1889 Constitution, one of the areas that stood out as needing serious change was the Montana Legislature. Meeting for only sixty calendar days every two years, the Legislature regularly tried to carry off the subterfuge of stopping the wall clock at 11:59 PM on the sixtieth day and placing a shroud over it so they could continue to conduct business as if it were still the 60th day. Lawyers hired by the Anaconda Company drafted most bills that legislators wanted to have introduced. Malapportionment, especially in the State Senate where each county had one Senator regardless of their population, created a situation where Petroleum County with 800 residents had one senator while neighboring Yellowstone County with 80,000 people also had one senator -- a 100-1 differential in representation. Reapportionment imposed by rulings of the US Supreme Court in the mid-1960s created great furor in rural Montana to go along with the previous dissatisfaction of the urban centers. Stories of Anaconda Company “thumbs up – thumbs down” control of the votes were prevalent. Committee meeting and votes were done behind closed doors and recorded votes were non-existent except for the nearly meaningless final tally. People were in the dark about the creation of laws that affected their daily lives. It was clear that change in the Legislature had to take the form of change in the Constitution and, because it was not likely that the Legislature would advance Constitutional amendments on the subject, a convention seemed the only remedy. Once that Convention was called and went to work, it became apparent that the Legislative Article provided both opportunity for change and danger that too dramatic a change might sink the whole new document. The activities of the Legislative Committee and the whole Convention when acting upon Legislative issues provides one of the more compelling stories of change. The story of the Legislative Article of the Montana Constitution is discussed in this episode by three major players who were directly involved in the effort: Jerry Loendorf, Arlyne Reichert and Rich Bechtel. Their recollections of the activities surrounding the entire Constitutional Convention and specifically the Legislative Article provide an insider’s perspective of the development of the entire Constitution and the Legislative portion which was of such a high degree of interest to the people of Montana during the important period of progressive change documented “In the Crucible of Change.” Jerry Loendorf, who served as Chair of the Legislative Committee at the 1972 Montana Constitutional Convention, received a BA from Carroll College in 1961 and a JD from the University of Montana Law School in 1964. Upon graduation he served two years as a law clerk for the Montana Supreme Court after which he was for 34 years a partner in the law firm of Harrison, Loendorf & Posten, Duncan. In addition to being a delegate to the Constitutional Convention, Jerry served on the Board of Labor Appeals from 2000 to 2004. He was designated a Montana Special Assistant Attorney General to represent the state in federal court on the challenge to the results of the ratification election of Montana's Constitution in 1972. Jerry served on the Carroll College Board of Directors in the late 1960s and then again as a member of the Board of Trustees of Carroll College from 2001 to 2009. He has served on the Board of Directors of the Rocky Mountain Development Council since 1970 and was on the board of the Helena YMCA from 1981 to 1987. He also served on the board of the Good Samaritan Ministries from 2009 to 2014. On the business side, Jerry was on the Board of Directors of Valley Bank to Helena from 1980 to 2005. He is a member of the American Bar Association, State Bar of Montana, the First Judicial District Bar Association, and the Montana Trial Lawyers Association. Carroll College awarded Jerry the Warren Nelson Award 1994 and the Insignias Award in 2007. At Carroll College, Jerry has funded the following three scholarship endowments: George C and Helen T Loendorf, Gary Turcott, and Fr. William Greytek. Arlyne Reichert, Great Falls Delegate to the Constitutional Convention and former State Legislator, was born in Buffalo, NY in 1926 and attended University of Buffalo in conjunction with Cadet Nurses Training during WWII. She married a Montanan in Great Falls in 1945 and was widowed in 1968. She is mother of five, grandmother of seven, great-grandmother of four. Arlyne was employed by McLaughlin Research Institute in Great Falls for 23 years, serving as Technical Editor of Transplantation Journal in 1967, retiring as Assistant Director in 1989. In addition to being a state legislator (1979 Session) and a delegate to the 1972 Montana Constitutional Convention, she has filled many public roles, including Cascade County Study Commissioner (1974), MT Comprehensive Health Council, US Civil Rights Commission MT Advisory Committee, MT Capitol Restoration Committee, and Great Falls Public Library Trustee. Arlyne has engaged in many non-profit activities including League of Women Voters (State & Local Board Officer – from where her interest in the MT Constitutional change developed), Great Falls Public Radio Association (President & Founder), American Cancer Society (President Great Falls Chapter), Chair of MT Rhodes Scholarship Committee, and Council Member of the National Civic League. She also served a while as a Television Legislative Reporter. Arlyne has been recipient of numerous awards, the National Distinguished Citizens Award from the National Municipal League, two Women of Achievement Awards from Business & Professional Women, the Salute to Women Award by YWCA, Heritage Preservation Award from Cascade County Historical Society and the State of Montana, and the Heroes Award from Humanities Montana. She remains active, serving as Secretary-Treasurer of Preservation Cascade, Inc., and as Board Member of the McLaughlin Research Institute. Her current passion is applied to the preservation/saving of the historic 10th Street Bridge that crosses the Missouri River in Great Falls. Rich Bechtel of Helena was born in Napa, California in 1945 and grew up as an Air Force brat living in such places as Bitberg, Germany, Tripoli, Libya, and Sevilla, Spain. He graduated from Glasgow High School and the University of Montana. Rich was a graduate assistant for noted Montana History professor Professor K. Ross Toole, but dropped out of graduate school to pursue a real life in Montana politics and government. Rich has had a long, varied and colorful career in the public arena. He currently is the Director of the Office of Taxpayer Assistance & Public Outreach for MT’s Department of Revenue. He previously held two positions with the National Wildlife Federation in Washington, DC (Sr. Legislative Representative [1989-91] and Sr. Legislative Representative for Wildlife Policy [2004-2006]). While in Washington DC, he also was Assistant for Senator Lee Metcalf (D-MT), 1974-1976; Federal-State Coordinator for State of Montana, 1976-1989; Director of the Western Governors’ Association Washington Office, 1991-2000; and Director of Federal Affairs for Governor Kitzhaber of Oregon, 2001- 2003. Earlier in Montana Government, between 1971 and 1974, Rich was Research Analyst for MT Blue Ribbon Commission on Postsecondary Education, Legislative Consultant and Bill Drafter for MT Legislative Council, Research Analyst for the MT Constitutional Convention Commission where he provided original research on legislatures, as well as Researcher/Staff for the MT Constitutional Convention Legislative Committee, from where he drafted the various provisions of the Legislative Article and the majority and minority reports on behalf of the Committee members. Rich has represented Montana’s Governor on a trade and cultural mission to Republic of China and participated in US-German Acid Rain Committee sessions in Germany and with European Economic Community environmental officials in Belgium. He is married to Yvonne Seng (Ph.D.) - T’ai Chi apprentice; author and birder.

Edna Chamberlain (1921 -2005): A Leader through Times of Transition and Change

Professor Edna Chamberlain was an outstanding leader in Australian social work. She contributed extensively to social work education at the University of Queensland, the social work profession through her leadership of the Australian Association of Social Workers and to the community through advocacy for progressive social policies. Her life experiences were influential is shaping her career and her particular teaching and research interests. Early in her life, Chamberlain was exposed to individual deprivation as a result of the Great Depression. This provided the incentive for a career in social work. She worked as a social work practitioner for some years and entered the academic world until after the death of her husband. In the university and profession, she was confronted by conflict between traditionalists and those wanting immediate reform. In managing these tensions, she tried to find the common ground but these tensions also moderated and changed her views about the purpose and practice of social work. Her rich practice and later research and teaching background provided a strong basis for her professional leadership, research activities and curriculum initiatives. Whilst social casework methods were influential early in her career she sought in later years to integrate the private pain of individuals with social policy and community planning by focusing on the purpose of social work – demonstrating her commitment to the disadvantaged in the context of social justice.

Assessing the Influence of Brain-based Instructional Methods and Its Impact on Systemic Change for Learning Communities

Background: As scholars who prepare future school leaders to be innovative instructional leaders for their learning communities, we are on the verge of a curriculum design revolution. The application of brain research findings promotes educational reform efforts to systemically change the way in which children experience school. However, most educators, school leaders, board members, and policy makers are ill prepared to reconsider the implications for assessment, pedagogy, school climate, daily schedules, and use of technology. This qualitative study asked future school leaders to reconsider how school leadership preparedness programs prepared them to become instructional leaders for the 21st century. The findings from this study will enhance the field of school leadership, challenging the current emphasis placed on standardized testing, traditional school calendars, assessments, monocultural instructional methods, and meeting the needs of diverse learning communities. [See PDF for complete abstract]

Using Blackboard Administered Precourse and Post course Tests to Assess Student Readiness to Learn and Change in Knowledge

Students arrive at classes with a varying social situations and course subject knowledge. Blackboard is a web based course delivery program that permits testing of students before arriving at the first class. A pretest was used to assess preexisting subject knowledge(S) and a survey was used to assess non-subject (N) factors that might impact the student’s final grade. A posttest was administered after all content was delivered and used to access change in S. [See PDF for complete abstract]

Skills training and social influences for violence prevention in middle schools: A curriculum evaluation

This pilot study evaluated the effect of skills training and of social influences on self-reported aggressive behavior in a sample of 239 sixth-grade students. The effect of two intervention groups and one control group were compared. In the first intervention group, a 15-session, violence-prevention curriculum was taught by the teacher. In the second intervention group, the same curriculum was taught by the teacher with the assistance of peer leaders trained to modify social norms about violence. The control group was evaluated but did not receive any training. The design included four schools. In two schools, three classes were assigned to one of the two interventions or to the control group. In the other two schools, two classes were assigned to either intervention (teacher only) or control. Students were evaluated before and after the implementation of the curriculum using a standardized questionnaire.^ The primary outcome was the effect of the curriculum and peer leaders on self-reported aggressive behaviors. The secondary outcome was their impact on intervening variables: knowledge about violence, conflict-resolution skills, self-efficacy, and attitudes.^ The intervention had a moderate effect on reducing self-reported aggressive behaviors among boys in two of the six classes that received the curriculum. Both classes with peer leaders reduced their aggressive behavior, but this reduction was significant in only one. A peer leader selection problem could probably explain this lack of effect.^ In three of the four schools, both interventions had an overall significant effect on increasing knowledge about violence and skills to reduce violence. Students also developed a more negative attitude toward violence after the intervention. As hypothesized, attitude change was stronger among students from the teacher plus peer leader group. No intervention effect was observed on self-efficacy nor on attitudes toward skills to reduce violence. Limitations of the study and implications for violence prevention in schools are discussed. ^