Áreas residenciais clandestinas na Cidade da Praia: caso Latada e Achada Eugénio Lima Trás

O principal objectivo desta dissertação é expor a problemática das áreas residenciais clandestinas na cidade da Praia. Este processo de produção do espaço urbano acompanhou o desenvolvimento da urbe, em resultado das razões sociais, económicas, políticas e institucionais tendo consequências urbanísticas e sociais graves. Surge porque as diferentes estruturas não souberam ou não foram capazes de dar resposta aos anseios da população em matéria de habitação e solo para construção. Este estudo apresenta um conjunto de informação acerca da realidade das áreas residenciais clandestinas que visa dar a dimensão da problemática na cidade da Praia, seguido de uma análise mais detalhada de duas áreas residenciais. A caracterização sócio-económica e a análise do processo construtivo permitiram produzir conhecimentos mais profundos sobre estes fragmentos do tecido urbano. Na dissertação procurámos articular a questão do planeamento com a habitação e as áreas residenciais clandestinas através da análise dos diferentes planos propostos ou aplicados na urbe. Procurámos perceber como os planos abordaram esta problemática e as soluções apresentadas para a sua superação. Da mesma forma, a apreciação feita em relação à habitação e à política de solos através das resoluções legais propostas para contornar a situação urbanística da cidade. Para uma melhor compreensão do tema discutimos a sua abrangência teórica na perspectiva de diferentes autores e efectuamos o entrosamento entre a componente empírica da produção do espaço urbano com a reflexão teórica. Perante a fragmentação da urbe em núcleos planeados e espontâneos, partimos na auscultação do poder local para a problemática. A intervenção deste em reverter o actual panorama e a política preconizada em relação a reconversão das áreas residenciais clandestinas visando a sua integração no quadro do ordenamento da aglomeração

Dynamic higher order expectations

In models where privately informed agents interact, agents may need to formhigher order expectations, i.e. expectations of other agents' expectations. This paper develops a tractable framework for solving and analyzing linear dynamic rational expectationsmodels in which privately informed agents form higher order expectations. The frameworkis used to demonstrate that the well-known problem of the infinite regress of expectationsidentified by Townsend (1983) can be approximated to an arbitrary accuracy with a finitedimensional representation under quite general conditions. The paper is constructive andpresents a fixed point algorithm for finding an accurate solution and provides weak conditions that ensure that a fixed point exists. To help intuition, Singleton's (1987) asset pricingmodel with disparately informed traders is used as a vehicle for the paper.

Development and validation of a clinical decision rule for the diagnosis of influenza.

INTRODUCTION: A clinical decision rule to improve the accuracy of a diagnosis of influenza could help clinicians avoid unnecessary use of diagnostic tests and treatments. Our objective was to develop and validate a simple clinical decision rule for diagnosis of influenza. METHODS: We combined data from 2 studies of influenza diagnosis in adult outpatients with suspected influenza: one set in California and one in Switzerland. Patients in both studies underwent a structured history and physical examination and had a reference standard test for influenza (polymerase chain reaction or culture). We randomly divided the dataset into derivation and validation groups and then evaluated simple heuristics and decision rules from previous studies and 3 rules based on our own multivariate analysis. Cutpoints for stratification of risk groups in each model were determined using the derivation group before evaluating them in the validation group. For each decision rule, the positive predictive value and likelihood ratio for influenza in low-, moderate-, and high-risk groups, and the percentage of patients allocated to each risk group, were reported. RESULTS: The simple heuristics (fever and cough; fever, cough, and acute onset) were helpful when positive but not when negative. The most useful and accurate clinical rule assigned 2 points for fever plus cough, 2 points for myalgias, and 1 point each for duration <48 hours and chills or sweats. The risk of influenza was 8% for 0 to 2 points, 30% for 3 points, and 59% for 4 to 6 points; the rule performed similarly in derivation and validation groups. Approximately two-thirds of patients fell into the low- or high-risk group and would not require further diagnostic testing. CONCLUSION: A simple, valid clinical rule can be used to guide point-of-care testing and empiric therapy for patients with suspected influenza.

On ignoring scientific evidence: The bumpy road to enlightenment

It is well accepted that people resist evidence that contradicts their beliefs.Moreover, despite their training, many scientists reject results that are inconsistent withtheir theories. This phenomenon is discussed in relation to the field of judgment anddecision making by describing four case studies. These concern findings that clinical judgment is less predictive than actuarial models; simple methods have proven superiorto more theoretically correct methods in times series forecasting; equal weighting ofvariables is often more accurate than using differential weights; and decisions cansometimes be improved by discarding relevant information. All findings relate to theapparently difficult-to-accept idea that simple models can predict complex phenomenabetter than complex ones. It is true that there is a scientific market place for ideas.However, like its economic counterpart, it is subject to inefficiencies (e.g., thinness,asymmetric information, and speculative bubbles). Unfortunately, the market is only correct in the long-run. The road to enlightenment is bumpy.

On bounds for network revenue management

The Network Revenue Management problem can be formulated as a stochastic dynamic programming problem (DP or the\optimal" solution V *) whose exact solution is computationally intractable. Consequently, a number of heuristics have been proposed in the literature, the most popular of which are the deterministic linear programming (DLP) model, and a simulation based method, the randomized linear programming (RLP) model. Both methods give upper bounds on the optimal solution value (DLP and PHLP respectively). These bounds are used to provide control values that can be used in practice to make accept/deny decisions for booking requests. Recently Adelman [1] and Topaloglu [18] have proposed alternate upper bounds, the affine relaxation (AR) bound and the Lagrangian relaxation (LR) bound respectively, and showed that their bounds are tighter than the DLP bound. Tight bounds are of great interest as it appears from empirical studies and practical experience that models that give tighter bounds also lead to better controls (better in the sense that they lead to more revenue). In this paper we give tightened versions of three bounds, calling themsAR (strong Affine Relaxation), sLR (strong Lagrangian Relaxation) and sPHLP (strong Perfect Hindsight LP), and show relations between them. Speciffically, we show that the sPHLP bound is tighter than sLR bound and sAR bound is tighter than the LR bound. The techniques for deriving the sLR and sPHLP bounds can potentially be applied to other instances of weakly-coupled dynamic programming.

Behavioral assumptions and management ability

The paper explores the consequences that relying on different behavioral assumptions intraining managers may have on their future performance. We argue that training with anemphasis on the standard assumptions used in economics (rationality and self-interest) is goodfor technical posts but may also lead future managers to rely excessively on rational and explicitsafeguarding, crowding out instinctive relational heuristics and signaling a bad human type topotential partners. In contrast, human assumptions used in management theories, because oftheir diverse, implicit and even contradictory nature, do not conflict with the innate set ofcooperative tools and may provide a good training ground for such tools. We present tentativeconfirmatory evidence by examining how the weight given to behavioral assumptions in the corecourses of the top 100 business schools influences the average salaries of their MBA graduates.Controlling for the self-selected average quality of their students and some other schools characteristics, average salaries are seen to be significantly greater for schools whose core MBAcourses contain a higher proportion of management courses as opposed to courses based oneconomics or technical disciplines.

On heuristic and linear models of judgment: Mapping the demand for knowledge

Research on judgment and decision making presents a confusing picture of human abilities. For example, much research has emphasized the dysfunctional aspects of judgmental heuristics, and yet, other findings suggest that these can be highly effective. A further line of research has modeled judgment as resulting from as if linear models. This paper illuminates the distinctions in these approaches by providing a common analytical framework based on the central theoretical premise that understanding human performance requires specifying how characteristics of the decision rules people use interact with the demands of the tasks they face. Our work synthesizes the analytical tools of lens model research with novel methodology developed to specify the effectiveness of heuristics in different environments and allows direct comparisons between the different approaches. We illustrate with both theoretical analyses and simulations. We further link our results to the empirical literature by a meta-analysis of lens model studies and estimate both human andheuristic performance in the same tasks. Our results highlight the trade-off betweenlinear models and heuristics. Whereas the former are cognitively demanding, the latterare simple to use. However, they require knowledge and thus maps of when andwhich heuristic to employ.

A simple optimised search heuristic for the job-shop scheduling problem

This paper presents a simple Optimised Search Heuristic for the Job Shop Scheduling problem that combines a GRASP heuristic with a branch-and-bound algorithm. The proposed method is compared with similar approaches and leads to better results in terms of solution quality and computing times.

Metaheuristics for the bus-driver scheduling problem

We present new metaheuristics for solving real crew scheduling problemsin a public transportation bus company. Since the crews of thesecompanies are drivers, we will designate the problem by the bus-driverscheduling problem. Crew scheduling problems are well known and severalmathematical programming based techniques have been proposed to solvethem, in particular using the set-covering formulation. However, inpractice, there exists the need for improvement in terms of computationalefficiency and capacity of solving large-scale instances. Moreover, thereal bus-driver scheduling problems that we consider can present variantaspects of the set covering, as for example a different objectivefunction, implying that alternative solutions methods have to bedeveloped. We propose metaheuristics based on the following approaches:GRASP (greedy randomized adaptive search procedure), tabu search andgenetic algorithms. These metaheuristics also present some innovationfeatures based on and genetic algorithms. These metaheuristics alsopresent some innovation features based on the structure of the crewscheduling problem, that guide the search efficiently and able them tofind good solutions. Some of these new features can also be applied inthe development of heuristics to other combinatorial optimizationproblems. A summary of computational results with real-data problems ispresented.

Forecasting the effects of global warming on biodiversity

The demand for accurate forecasting of the effects of global warming on biodiversity is growing, but current methods for forecasting have limitations. in this article, we compare and discuss the different uses of four forecasting methods: (1) models that consider species individually, (2) niche-theory models that group species by habitat (more specifically, by environmental conditions under which a species can persist or does persist), (3) general circulation models and coupled ocean-atmosphere-biosphere models, and (4) specics-area curve models that consider all species or large aggregates of species. After outlining the different uses and limitations of these methods, we make eight primary suggestions for improving forecasts. We find that greater use of the fossil record and of modern genetic studies would improve forecasting methods. We note a Quaternary conundrum: While current empirical and theoretical ecological results suggest that many species could be at risk from global warming, during the recent ice ages surprisingly few species became extinct. The potential resolution of this conundrum gives insights into the requirements for more accurate and reliable forecasting. Our eight suggestions also point to constructive synergies in the solution to the different problems.

Seeking good peer review in geomorphology

This paper provides an extended guide to reviewing for ESPL in particular and geomorphology in general. After a brief consideration of both how we choose reviewers and why we hope that reviewers will accept, I consider what makes a fair and constructive review. I note that we aim to publish papers with the rigour (r) necessary to sustain an original and significant contribution (q). I note that judging q is increasingly difficult because of the ever-growing size of the discipline (the Q). This is the sense in which we rarely have a full appreciation of Q, and our reviews are inevitably going to contain some bias. It is this bias that cannot be avoided (cf. Nicholas and Gordon, 2011) and makes the job of ESPL's Editors of critical importance. With this in mind, I identify six elements of a good review: (1) an introductory statement that explains your assessment of your competences in relation to the manuscript (r and Q); (2) a summative view of the originality and significance of the manuscript (q) in relation to Q: (3) a summative view of the methodological rigour of the manuscript (r); (4) identification and justification of any major concerns; (5) identification of any minor issues to be corrected if you think the manuscript merits eventual publication; and (6) note of any typographical or presentation issues to be addressed although this latter activity is also an editorial responsibility. In addition, I note the importance of a constructive review, grounded in what is written in the manuscript, justified where appropriate and avoiding reference to personal views as far as is possible. I conclude with a discussion of whether or not you should sign your review openly and the importance of reviewer confidentiality. Copyright (C) 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Ongoing Covenant with Black Iowa, 2006

This Manual is designed to help targeted communities organize and train local steering groups and task force leaders. The Ongoing Covenant with Black Iowa (OCBI) model will engage and empower African Americans in various communities to work together in developing strategies that bridge local priorities to statewide goals. Trained Task Force Leaders play a critical role in establishing productive dialogue and planning that is essential to moving the OCBI forward in meeting its goals. They must ensure consistency within each Task Force as the OCBI is a multilevel partnership and collaboration among local communities, the Commission on the Status of African Americans and the Covenant with Black America. Task Force Leaders assist with constructive dialogue among local residents to engage and focus on the issues, and work collectively towards a solution. Patience in developing a strategy and trained Task Force Leaders are essential to the success of the OCBI. It is our hope that this Manual will serve as a guide to assist you in all aspects of building your local strategic plan.

Active learning methods for remote sensing image classification

In this paper, we propose two active learning algorithms for semiautomatic definition of training samples in remote sensing image classification. Based on predefined heuristics, the classifier ranks the unlabeled pixels and automatically chooses those that are considered the most valuable for its improvement. Once the pixels have been selected, the analyst labels them manually and the process is iterated. Starting with a small and nonoptimal training set, the model itself builds the optimal set of samples which minimizes the classification error. We have applied the proposed algorithms to a variety of remote sensing data, including very high resolution and hyperspectral images, using support vector machines. Experimental results confirm the consistency of the methods. The required number of training samples can be reduced to 10% using the methods proposed, reaching the same level of accuracy as larger data sets. A comparison with a state-of-the-art active learning method, margin sampling, is provided, highlighting advantages of the methods proposed. The effect of spatial resolution and separability of the classes on the quality of the selection of pixels is also discussed.

Plan de seguridad y salud para el suministro y montaje del Parque Eólico Rancho Viejo en el T.M. de Medina-Sidonia (Cádiz)

No hace más de 3 años se podía leer en las revistas especializadas que España había pasado a ocupar el tercer puesto en el ranking mundial por potencia eólica instalada. La industria eólica española a su vez ha pasado a ocupar el tercer puesto en la fabricación e instalación de aerogeneradores, con una cuota de mercado del 13%, siendo así un sector con gran capacidad de exportación. Por otra parte, tras diez años de promulgación de la Ley 31/95, de 8 de noviembre, de Prevención de Riesgos Laborales, y después su desarrollo reglamentario, es un hecho incontestable que, pese a todo, y a los ingentes esfuerzos realizados por los distintos actores implicados en la prevención de riesgos laborales (Estado, Comunidades Autónomas, Agentes Sociales, Entidades especializadas, etcetera), existe un sector como el de la construcción que, constituyendo uno de los ejes del crecimiento económico de nuestro país, está sometido a unos riesgos especiales y continúa registrando una siniestralidad laboral muy notoria por sus cifras y gravedad. La legislación de prevención, los manuales sobre las distintas disciplinas preventivas, los libros especializados, los expertos... han abordado ya, con mayor o menor acierto, muchas de las cuestiones generales y específicas que afectan a la seguridad y salud: la evaluación de riesgos, las medidas higiénicas, los equipos de trabajo y equipos de protección individual, la planificación, la formación, los servicios de prevención , los sistemas de gestión de la prevención, las auditorías ... forman parte de los contenidos que se han ido creando en torno a este tema. No obstante, resulta de gran interés la elaboración de un estudio de Seguridad y Salud, en el que partiendo de un desarrollo técnico concreto, pero sobre todo integral, es decir, que comprenda todas las fases para el suministrp e instalación de aerogeneradores para un parque eólico, vayamos desgranando cada uno de los puntos desarrollados en su construcción. Entre las conclusiones más destacadas de este trabajo, se encuentra la definición de las condiciones relativas a la prevención de accidentes y enfermedades laborales durante la ejecución de los trabajos de suministro e instalación de un parque eólico y la gestión de su prevención, las características de las instalaciones preceptivas para higiene y bienestar de los trabajadores, así como directrices básicas mínimas, que deben reflejarse y desarrollarse en el Plan de Seguridad y Salud que las empresas contratistas deberán presentar para su aprobación por el director de obra, antes del comienzo de los trabajos, de forma que sea posible la disminución de accidentes laborales así como evitar las posibles sanciones administrativas y/o penales.

Projecte executiu d'una instal·lació de climatització i control d'un habitatge unifamiliar

Moltes vegades l’usuari d’una instal•lació de climatització o calefacció, no dóna la suficient importància al sistema que l’hi ha de proporcionar un millor confort amb el màxim rendiment. Aquest confort és un factor determinant, entre molts d’altres, de la “qualitat de vida”. Mentre que el rendiment és un factor important a nivell econòmic i ecològic. Tot i tenir prevalença els aspectes d’estalvi energètic, aquests no impliquen haver de renunciar a un confort tèrmic i a un estalvi econòmic. Un dels aspectes que es centra el projecte és promoure l’ús racional de les fonts energètiques (solar, biomassa) per a la correcta climatització dels habitatges. El projecte es desenvolupa en l’àmbit domèstic, concretament correspon a un habitatge unifamiliar. Aquest està situat a la població de Roda de Ter, província de Barcelona. L’objectiu principal del projecte és l’elecció del sistema de climatització i el seu dimensionament, per tal de donar el màxim confort als usuaris que habitin a la vivenda. Criteris ambientals i eficients han estat objecte a considerar pel disseny constructiu de l’habitatge. Una de les mesures importants presses en el projecte, ha estat l’elecció de les diferents parts que formen la instal•lació de climatització. Es fa referència als aïllaments dels tancaments, el sistema solar de recolzament, equips de producció de fred i calor, entre d’altres. En el projecte, s’ha dut a terme un estudi dels diferents tancaments de l’habitatge, tot determinat per a cada un d’ells, el seu coeficient de transmissió tèrmica. Per seleccionar l’equipament més adequat s’ha partit de les condicions climatològiques del municipi de Roda de Ter i s’ha realitzat el càlcul de les necessitats tèrmiques de l’edifici. L’habitatge incorpora una instal•lació de captació solar tèrmica. Aquesta aportarà un suport energètic a tot el sistema de producció de calor, ja sigui per la producció d’aigua calenta sanitària com per el calefactat de la vivenda. La col•locació dels panells a la façana sud tindrà una doble funció: a més de proporcionar energia solar tèrmica, serviran d’elements de protecció solar en la temporada d’estiu. La caldera usada per donar recolzament tèrmic utilitzarà com a combustible el “pellet”. El “pellet” és un tipus de biomassa llenyosa que consta d’un derivat de la fusta en format granulat. Es defineix i es detalla el consum energètic en biomassa, electricitat i cost econòmic anual que ocasionarà la instal.lació dissenyada. El sistema de terra radiant adoptat permetrà el refrescament en èpoques estivals i el calefactat en èpoques hivernals. Aquest donarà el confort tèrmic necessari a cada estança de l’habitatge. En el projecte també es marquen les pautes bàsiques pel control de la instal•lació solar així com el control dels grups de bombament i la mescla d’aigua del terra radiant.