Analysis of volatility transmissions in integrated and interconnected markets: The case of the Iberian and French markets

This paper models the mean and volatility spillovers of prices within the integrated Iberian and the interconnected Spanish and French electricity markets. Using the constant (CCC) and dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) bivariate models with three different specifications of the univariate variance processes, we study the extent to which increasing interconnection and harmonization in regulation have favoured price convergence. The data consist of daily prices calculated as the arithmetic mean of the hourly prices over a span from July 1st 2007 until February 29th 2012. The DCC model in which the variances of the univariate processes are specified with a VARMA(1,1) fits the data best for the integrated MIBEL whereas a CCC model with a GARCH(1,1) specification for the univariate variance processes is selected to model the price series in Spain and France. Results show that there are significant mean and volatility spillovers in the MIBEL, indicating strong interdependence between the two markets, while there is a weaker evidence of integration between the Spanish and French markets. We provide new evidence that the EU target of achieving a single electricity market largely depends on increasing trade between countries and homogeneous rules of market functioning.

Long memory in return structures from developed markets

[En]The present study aimed at investigating the existence of long memory properties in ten developed stock markets across the globe. When return series exhibit long memory, the series realizations are not independent over time and past returns can help predict future returns, thus violating the market efficiency hypothesis. It poses a serious challenge to the supporters of random walk behavior of the stock returns indicating a potentially predictable component in the series dynamics. We computed Hurst-Mandelbrot’s Classical R/S statistic, Lo’s statistic and semi parametric GPH statistic using spectral regression. The findings suggest existence of long memory in volatility and random walk for logarithmic return series in general for all the selected stock market indices. Findings are in line with the stylized facts of financial time series.

The power of fish trader associations in the marketing of fish in Lagos State

This paper focusses on the activities of trade associations in the marketing of fish in Lagos State. The study covers 6 different markets in Lagos State of Nigeria. Analysis indicates that 86% of the traders are members of the associations. The ages of the traders range from 21 to over 55 years. However, majority are between the ages of 31 and 45 years. Traders secure their initial capital mostly from trade associations and Esusu/Ajo. Most traders have no working capital to maintain a regular series of outlets, so wholesalers turn to associations for funds, while retailers turn to wholesalers. They eventually pay back when they sell to consumers. The fish industry is found to be imperfectly competitive mostly because of the actions of fish trader associations. The fish marketing system is highly personalised and loyality exists between wholesalers and retailers and their customers

Markets and microstructure

This document contains three papers examining the microstructure of financial interaction in development and market settings. I first examine the industrial organization of financial exchanges, specifically limit order markets. In this section, I perform a case study of Google stock surrounding a surprising earnings announcement in the 3rd quarter of 2009, uncovering parameters that describe information flows and liquidity provision. I then explore the disbursement process for community-driven development projects. This section is game theoretic in nature, using a novel three-player ultimatum structure. I finally develop econometric tools to simulate equilibrium and identify equilibrium models in limit order markets.

In chapter two, I estimate an equilibrium model using limit order data, finding parameters that describe information and liquidity preferences for trading. As a case study, I estimate the model for Google stock surrounding an unexpected good-news earnings announcement in the 3rd quarter of 2009. I find a substantial decrease in asymmetric information prior to the earnings announcement. I also simulate counterfactual dealer markets and find empirical evidence that limit order markets perform more efficiently than do their dealer market counterparts.

In chapter three, I examine Community-Driven Development. Community-Driven Development is considered a tool empowering communities to develop their own aid projects. While evidence has been mixed as to the effectiveness of CDD in achieving disbursement to intended beneficiaries, the literature maintains that local elites generally take control of most programs. I present a three player ultimatum game which describes a potential decentralized aid procurement process. Players successively split a dollar in aid money, and the final player--the targeted community member--decides between whistle blowing or not. Despite the elite capture present in my model, I find conditions under which money reaches targeted recipients. My results describe a perverse possibility in the decentralized aid process which could make detection of elite capture more difficult than previously considered. These processes may reconcile recent empirical work claiming effectiveness of the decentralized aid process with case studies which claim otherwise.

In chapter four, I develop in more depth the empirical and computational means to estimate model parameters in the case study in chapter two. I describe the liquidity supplier problem and equilibrium among those suppliers. I then outline the analytical forms for computing certainty-equivalent utilities for the informed trader. Following this, I describe a recursive algorithm which facilitates computing equilibrium in supply curves. Finally, I outline implementation of the Method of Simulated Moments in this context, focusing on Indirect Inference and formulating the pseudo model.

An integrated design approach to power systems : from power flows to electricity markets

Power system is at the brink of change. Engineering needs, economic forces and environmental factors are the main drivers of this change. The vision is to build a smart electrical grid and a smarter market mechanism around it to fulfill mandates on clean energy. Looking at engineering and economic issues in isolation is no longer an option today; it needs an integrated design approach. In this thesis, I shall revisit some of the classical questions on the engineering operation of power systems that deals with the nonconvexity of power flow equations. Then I shall explore some issues of the interaction of these power flow equations on the electricity markets to address the fundamental issue of market power in a deregulated market environment. Finally, motivated by the emergence of new storage technologies, I present an interesting result on the investment decision problem of placing storage over a power network. The goal of this study is to demonstrate that modern optimization and game theory can provide unique insights into this complex system. Some of the ideas carry over to applications beyond power systems.

Investigation of competitive antagonist binding to the nicotinic acetylcholine receptor using voltage-jump and light-flash techniques

1. The effect of 2,2’-bis-[α-(trimethylammonium)methyl]azobenzene (2BQ), a photoisomerizable competitive antagonist, was studied at the nicotinic acetycholine receptor of Electrophorus electroplaques using voltage-jump and light-flash techniques.

2. 2BQ, at concentrations below 3 μΜ, reduced the amplitude of voltage-jump relaxations but had little effect on the voltage-jump relaxation time constants under all experimental conditions. At higher concentrations and voltages more negative than -150 mV, 2BQ caused significant open channel blockade.

3. Dose-ratio studies showed that the cis and trans isomers of 2BQ have equilibrium binding constants (K _ᵢ) of .33 and 1.0 μΜ, respectively. The binding constants determined for both isomers are independent of temperature, voltage, agonist concentration, and the nature of the agonist.

4. In a solution of predominantly cis-2BQ, visible-light flashes led to a net cis→trans isomerization and caused an increase in the agonist-induced current. This increase had at least two exponential components; the larger amplitude component had the same time constant as a subsequent voltage-jump relaxation; the smaller amplitude component was investigated using ultraviolet light flashes.

5. In a solution of predominantly trans-2BQ, UV-light flashes led to a net trans→cis isomerization and caused a net decrease in the agonist-induced current. This effect had at least two exponential components. The smaller and faster component was an increase in agonist-induced current and had a similar time constant to the voltage-jump relaxation. The larger component was a slow decrease in the agonist-induced current with rate constant approximately an order of magnitude less than that of the voltage-jump relaxation. This slow component provided a measure of the rate constant for dissociation of cis-2BQ (k_ = 60/s at 20°C). Simple modelling of the slope of the dose-rate curves yields an association rate constant of 1.6 x 10⁸/M/s. This agrees with the association rate constant of 1.8 x 10⁸/M/s estimated from the binding constant (K_i). The Q₁₀ of the dissociation rate constant of cis-2BQ was 3.3 between 6° and 20°C. The rate constants for association and dissociation of cis-28Q at receptors are independent of voltage, agonist concentration, and the nature of the agonist.

6. We have measured the molecular rate constants of a competitive antagonist which has roughly the same K _ᵢ as d-tubocurarine but interacts more slowly with the receptor. This leads to the conclusion that curare itself has an association rate constant of 4 x 10⁹/M/s or roughly as fast as possible for an encounter-limited reaction.

Financial Futures Markets and Their Impact on the Real Economy in Middle and Low Income Countries

This project analyses the influence of the futures market on middle and low income countries. In it, I attempt to show that investments made by large investment funds in this market, as well as by certain pension plans, bring major consequences whose effects are more evident in less developed countries. The cornerstones of the work are as follows; to attempt to see the existing relationship between the commodity futures market and its underlying assets; analysing products such as wheat, rice and corn in-depth, because these are the most basic foodstuffs at a global level; to determine how an increase in trading in these markets can affect the lives of people in the poorest countries; to analyse investor concern regarding the consequences that their investments may have. Throughout the project we will see how large speculators use production forecasting models to determine the shortage of a commodity in order to take a position in the futures market to profit from it. In addition we will see how an increase in trading in this market causes an increase in the price of the underlying asset in the spot market. As for investor concern, I can say it is negligible, but the idea of running pension plans or investment funds that follow some social criteria has been welcomed by those interviewed, which makes me think that different legislation is possible. This legislation will only come into existence if it is demanded by the people. A fact that now becomes complicated because without a minimum financial basis, they cannot even know how the large investment funds trade with hunger in the world. The day when most people understand how large speculators profit from famine will be the day to put pressure on governments to begin to put limits on speculation. This makes financial awareness necessary in order to achieve a curb in excessive speculation.

On the economics of the "meeting competition defense" under the Robinson-Patman Act

Documento de trabajo

Impactos concorrenciais da entrada dos medicamentos genéricos no mercado farmacêutico brasileiro de 2003 a 2007

Em 1999, o mercado de medicamentos genéricos foi criado no Brasil. Com isso, iniciou-se uma nova fase do mercado farmacêutico brasileiro. Através de dados cedidos pela ANVISA sobre o mercado varejista brasileiro, objetivou-se testar em até que ponto a política de medicamentos genéricos tem logrado êxito. Foram utilizados dados em painel para analisar o impacto da entrada dos medicamentos genéricos sobre a estrutura do mercado, assim como o impacto nos preços e na quantidade vendida entre 2003 e 2007. Os resultados foram favoráveis à diminuição da concentração dos mercados relevantes da amostragem e também ao aumento da quantidade comercializada. Em relação aos preços, o modelo se mostrou pouco significativo, provavelmente pela política de medicamentos genéricos ser um instrumento indireto de controle de preços. De qualquer forma, os resultados encontrados parecem sugerir o bom andamento da política de medicamentos genéricos, o que é um alívio em se tratando de um mercado tão essencial para o bem-estar da população.

Dual-wavelength competitive output in Nd:Y3Sc1.5Al3.5O12 ceramic disk laser

In this paper, we demonstrated a dual-wavelength competitive output in Nd:Y3SC1.5Al3.5O12 ceramic disk laser. Different dual-wavelength output behaviors for Nd:YSAG and Nd:YAG ceramic disk laser were investigated and discussed. By applying the energy transfer model, we suggested the reasonable explanation for this new phenomenon as the disordered replacing of Al3+ ions by Sc3+ ions. The main advantage of the dual-wavelength ceramic laser is the possibility to serve as the seed source to generate Terahertz radiation. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.