Climate and human forcing of Alpine river flow

River flow in Alpine environments is likely to be highly sensitive to climate change because of the effects of warming upon snow and ice, and hence the intra-annual distribution of river runoff. It is also likely to be influenced strongly by human impacts both upon hydrology (e.g. flow abstraction) and river regulation. This paper compares the river flow and sediment flux of two Alpine drainage basins over the last 5 to 7 decades, one that is largely unimpacted by human activities, one strongly impacted by flow abstraction for hydroelectricity. The analysis shows that both river flow and sediment transport capacity are strongly dependent upon the effects of temperature and precipitation availability upon snow accumulation. As the latter tends to increase annual maximum flows, and given the non-linear form of most sediment transport laws, current warming trends may lead to increased sedimentation in Alpine rivers. However, extension to a system impacted upon by flow abstraction reveals the dominant effect that human activity can have upon river sedimentation but also how human response to sediment management has co-evolved with climate forcing to make disentangling the two very difficult.

Climate Change, Neutrality and the Harm Principle

This paper aims at evaluating the compatibility of coercive climate policies with liberal neutrality. More precisely, it focuses on the doctrine of state neutrality as associated with the "harm principle". It argues that given the difficulty of attributing causal responsibilities for climate harms to individuals, the harm principle doesn't work in this case, at least if one endorses a liberal atomistic ontology. Furthermore, the definition of what constitutes climate harms implies making moral assumptions, which makes it impossible to justify climate policies in a neutral way. Finally, the paper shows another consequence of applying neutrality to the case of climate change, that is the risk of a shift from political forms of decision-making to technocracy. Focusing too much on liberty of choice may (paradoxically) be to the detriment of political freedom. The paper concludes that climate change is an intrinsically moral issue and that it should be the occasion of a political debate about our current values and lifestyles. It should not be reduced to a mere question of carbon metric.

Genomic evidence for role of inversion 3RP of Drosophila melanogaster in facilitating climate change adaptation.

Chromosomal inversion polymorphisms are common in animals and plants, and recent models suggest that alternative arrangements spread by capturing different combinations of alleles acting additively or epistatically to favour local adaptation. It is also thought that inversions typically maintain favoured combinations for a long time by suppressing recombination between alternative chromosomal arrangements. Here, we consider patterns of linkage disequilibrium and genetic divergence in an old inversion polymorphism in Drosophila melanogaster (In(3R)Payne) known to be associated with climate change adaptation and a recent invasion event into Australia. We extracted, karyotyped and sequenced whole chromosomes from two Australian populations, so that changes in the arrangement of the alleles between geographically separated tropical and temperate areas could be compared. Chromosome-wide linkage disequilibrium (LD) analysis revealed strong LD within the region spanned by In(3R)Payne. This genomic region also showed strong differentiation between the tropical and the temperate populations, but no differentiation between different karyotypes from the same population, after controlling for chromosomal arrangement. Patterns of differentiation across the chromosome arm and in gene ontologies were enhanced by the presence of the inversion. These data support the notion that inversions are strongly selected by bringing together combinations of genes, but it is still not clear if such combinations act additively or epistatically. Our data suggest that climatic adaptation through inversions can be dynamic, reflecting changes in the relative abundance of different forms of an inversion and ongoing evolution of allelic content within an inversion.

The economic relevance of climate variables in agriculture: the case of Spain

We estimate how climate variables affect price and acreage of productive farmland using the Ricardian approach. Furthermore, we use our estimations to evaluate the joint effects of possible cli- mate changes within the time horizon of 2010 and 2050. Our results show that the price of rainfed land in Spain tends to increase but rainfed acreage decreases. On the other hand, the effect on irrigated farmland price and acreage presents some mixed results, however, in the long run the dominant pattern is clearly increasing for both prices and acreage.

The economic relevance of climate variables in agriculture: The case of Spain

We estimate the impact of the different climate variables on the value of Spanish farmland. We distinguish between irrigated and non-irrigated lands and use data on temperature, precipitations, physical and socioeconomic characteristics to measure these effects on farm prices and in the number of hectares of farmland. We conclude presenting the main results of our analysis, region by region, and examining the policies that could be more effective to prevent undesired effects.

Relationships between climate and winter cereal grain quality in Finland and their potential for forecasting

Selostus: Sään vaikutus syysviljojen hehtolitran painoon ennusteen laadinnan näkökulmasta

Fire management, climate change and their interacting effects on birds in complex Mediterranean landscapes: dynamic distribution modelling of an early-successional species - the near-threatened Dartford Warbler (Sylvia undata)

The current challenge in a context of major environmental changes is to anticipate the responses of species to future landscape and climate scenarios. In the Mediterranean basin, climate change is one the most powerful driving forces of fire dynamics, with fire frequency and impact having markedly increased in recent years. Species distribution modelling plays a fundamental role in this challenge, but better integration of available ecological knowledge is needed to adequately guide conservation efforts. Here, we quantified changes in habitat suitability of an early-succession bird in Catalonia, the Dartford Warbler (Sylvia undata) ― globally evaluated as Near Threatened in the IUCN Red List. We assessed potential changes in species distributions between 2000 and 2050 under different fire management and climate change scenarios and described landscape dynamics using a spatially-explicit fire-succession model that simulates fire impacts in the landscape and post-fire regeneration (MEDFIRE model). Dartford Warbler occurrence data were acquired at two different spatial scales from: 1) the Atlas of European Breeding Birds (EBCC) and 2) Catalan Breeding Bird Atlas (CBBA). Habitat suitability was modelled using five widely-used modelling techniques in an ensemble forecasting framework. Our results indicated considerable habitat suitability losses (ranging between 47% and 57% in baseline scenarios), which were modulated to a large extent by fire regime changes derived from fire management policies and climate changes. Such result highlighted the need for taking the spatial interaction between climate changes, fire-mediated landscape dynamics and fire management policies into account for coherently anticipating habitat suitability changes of early succession bird species. We conclude that fire management programs need to be integrated into conservation plans to effectively preserve sparsely forested and early succession habitats and their associated species in the face of global environmental change.

Päästökauppa murrosvaiheessa

Tässä diplomityössä selvitetään EU:n alueella ja erityisesti Suomessa vuoden 2005 alusta alkavaa hiilidioksidin päästökauppaa. Työssä käsitellään päästökaupan tulevia vaikutuksia energia-, metalli- ja metsäteollisuuden kannalta. Myös kansantaloudelliset sekä kokonaistaloudelliset vaikutukset ovat mielenkiinnon kohteena. Työ koskee joiltakin osin myös ilmastonmuutoksen hillintää yleisesti ja ns. Kioton mekanismeja. Työn kuluessa pyritään myös ennakoimaan tulevan päästökaupan volyymia ja päästöyksikön eli hiilidioksiditonnin hintaa, joka on suurimpia epävarmuustekijöitä koko prosessissa. Tulevaa päästökauppaa tarkastellaan myös päästökauppadirektiivin, päästökauppalain ja muiden sitä koskevien lakien säännösten ja määräysten luomassa toimintakehikossa. Työn nimi "Päästökauppa murrosvaiheessa" kuvastaa täten myös sitä, että tarkastelussa ei pyritä välttämättä lopullisiin ja varmoihin tai tarkkoihin arvioihin, koska se on käytännössä mahdotonta. Työn painopiste onkin meneillään olevan päästökaupan valmistelun selvittely monimuotoisena prosessina, jolloin tämän prosessin kuvaus on suurelta osin tässä vaiheessa myös kvalitatiivista. Päästökaupan tulosten ja vaikutusten seuranta jatkossa puolestaan olisi mitä mielenkiintoisin jatkotutkimuksen aihe. Työtä havainnollistetaan kolmella käytännön case -esityksellä, jotka käsittelevät energiayritystä, kattila- ja laitetoimittajaa sekä metsäteollisuuden voimalaitosta, ja niiden varautumista alkavaan päästökauppaan.

Leaf nutritional levels in peach and nectarine grown in subtropical climate

The study evaluated the leaf nutritional levels of peach and nectarine trees under subtropical climate in order to improve the fertilization practices. The experiment was carried out in São Paulo state University, Botucatu, São Paulo State, Brazil. The experimental design consisted of subdivided plots, in which plots corresponded to cultivars and subplots to the leaf sample periods. The evaluated peach cultivars were: Marli, Turmalina, Precocinho, Jubileu, Cascata 968, Cascata 848, CP 951C, CP 9553CYN, and Tropic Beauty, and that of nectarine was 'Sun Blaze'. The sample periods were: after harvest, plants in vegetative period; dormancy; beginning of flowering and fruiting (standard sample). Results indicated significant variations in the levels of N, P, K, Ca, Mg, S, B, Cu, Fe, Mn and Zn for the sampling period and in N, Ca, Mg, S, B, Fe and Mn levels for the cultivars.

Preface: Extreme events induced by weather and climate change: evaluation, forecasting and proactive planning

This special issue of Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS) contains eight papers presented as oral or poster contributions in the Natural Hazards NH-1.2 session on"Extreme events induced by weather and climate change: evaluation, forecasting and proactive planning", held at the European Geosciences Union (EGU) General Assembly in Vienna, Austria, on 13-18 April 2008. The aim of the session was to provide an international forum for presenting new results and for discussing innovative ideas and concepts on extreme hydro-meteorological events, including: (i) the assessment of the risk posed by the extreme events, (ii) the expected changes in the frequency and intensity of the events driven by a changing climate and by multiple human- induced causes, (iii) new modelling approaches and original forecasting methods to predict extreme events and their consequences, and (iv) strategies for hazard mitigation and risk reduction, and for a improved adaptation to extreme hydro-meteorological events ...

Mating disruption with low density diffusers for the management of oriental fruit moths (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) in apple orchards under subtropical climate in southern Brazil

The oriental fruit moth, Grapholita molesta Busck, and fruit flies, Anastrepha fraterculus L., are the important apple pests under Subtropical climate in Southern Brazil, and control is normally accomplished with insecticides. An alternative strategy for the control of G. molesta is mating disruption, through the use of pheromones. Mating disruption strategies using a low density of dispensers (20) per hectare were tested in comparison with conventional pesticides for control of G. molesta in commercial Gala apple orchards in Fraiburgo, SC, for a period of five years. The average field efficiency period of mating disruption formulation over five years was 113 days. In this period the mating interruption index on mating disruption plots was 84.8% over five years. Damage to Gala apples by oriental moth larvae was low (<0.1%) in mating disruption plots but did not differ from conventional plots, except in the third year. The use of mating disruption allowed for an average reduction of 5.2 insecticide treatments per year in Gala orchards during field efficiency period. It was necessary to apply 1.0 and 1.2 applications of insecticide to control of G. molesta and A. fraterculus, respectively. Mating disruption with a low density of diffusers proved to be an effective alternative to conventional methods for control of G. molesta in Gala apple orchards in subtropical climate in southern Brazil.

New Climate Change Related EC Directives and Their Interrelations to Green Electricity and Certificate Practices

Työn päätavoite on tutkia vihreän sähkön ja sertifikaattien kaupan ja EY:n uusien ilmastonmuutosta koskevien direktiivien ja direktiiviehdotusten välisiä yhteyksiä. Tutkimuksessa käsitellään direktiiviä sähköntuotannosta uusiutuvilla energialähteillä ja direktiiviehdotuksia Euroopan Unionin alueen päästökaupasta sekä yhdistetyn sähkön ja lämmön tuotannon lisäämisestä. Työ keskittyy erään suomalaisen metsäteollisuusyrityksen toimiin ilmastonmuutoksen hidastamiseksi. Tutkimus keskittyy pääosin EU:n suunnitelmaan aloittaa Unionin jäsenvaltioiden välinen päästökauppa, koska tämä järjestelmä tulee toteutuessaan olemaan teollisuuden kannalta merkittävä. Tilannetta on analysoitu neljän sellu- ja paperitehtaan hiilidioksidipäästölaskelmien avulla. Työssä kehitettyjä laskumalleja voidaan käyttää avuksi yhtiön muilla tehtailla. Tämän lisäksi työssä on luotu malli energiainvestointien arvioimiseksi tulevaisuudessa ottamalla päästöoikeuden hinnan vaikutus huomioon. Päästökaupan vaikutukset pohjoismaisilla vapautuneilla sähkömarkkinoilla on analysoity, koska teollinen sähkönhankinta on suuresti riippuvainen tästä markkinasta. Suomen metsäteollisuuden oma yhdistetty sähkön ja lämmön tuotanto erityisesti uusiutuvista energialähteistä tulee olemaan entistäkin tärkeämpää tiukentuvassa toimintaympäristössä. Tällä hetkellä on käynnissä kokeilu lisäarvon saamiseksi omalle sähköntuotannolle. Tällä haetaan kokemuksia ja valmiutta tulevaa päästökauppaa varten.

Phylogeny and biogeography of Primula sect. Armerina: implications for plant evolution under climate change and the uplift of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.

BACKGROUND: The historical orogenesis and associated climatic changes of mountain areas have been suggested to partly account for the occurrence of high levels of biodiversity and endemism. However, their effects on dispersal, differentiation and evolution of many groups of plants are still unknown. In this study, we examined the detailed diversification history of Primula sect. Armerina, and used biogeographic analysis and macro-evolutionary modeling to investigate a series of different questions concerning the evolution of the geographical and ecological distribution of the species in this section. RESULTS: We sequenced five chloroplast and one nuclear genes for species of Primula sect. Armerina. Neither chloroplast nor nuclear trees support the monophyly of the section. The major incongruences between the two trees occur among closely related species and may be explained by hybridization. Our dating analyses based on the chloroplast dataset suggest that this section began to diverge from its relatives around 3.55 million years ago, largely coinciding with the last major uplift of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP). Biogeographic analysis supports the origin of the section in the Himalayan Mountains and dispersal from the Himalayas to Northeastern QTP, Western QTP and Hengduan Mountains. Furthermore, evolutionary models of ecological niches show that the two P. fasciculata clades have significantly different climatic niche optima and rates of niche evolution, indicating niche evolution under climatic changes and further providing evidence for explaining their biogeographic patterns. CONCLUSION: Our results support the hypothesis that geologic and climatic events play important roles in driving biological diversification of organisms in the QTP area. The Pliocene uplift of the QTP and following climatic changes most likely promoted both the inter- and intraspecific divergence of Primula sect. Armerina. This study also illustrates how niche evolution under climatic changes influences biogeographic patterns.

Climate niche conservatism does not explain restricted distribution patterns in Tynanthus (Bignonieae, Bignoniaceae)

Studies on niche evolution allow us to establish how species niches have changed over time as well as to identify how long-term evolutionary processes have led to present-day species distributions. Here, we investigate the patterns of climatic niche evolution in Tynanthus (Bignonieae, Bignoniaceae), a genus comprising narrowly distributed species. We test the hypothesis that niche conservatism has played an important role in the diversification history of this group of Neotropical lianas. For that, we perform univariate and multivariate comparisons between species' climatic niches and associated environmental data with information on species' phylogenetic relationships. We encountered considerable divergence in niches among species, indicating that niche conservatism in climatic variables has does not seem to havenot played a key role in the diversification of the genus. Our results are used as a basis to discuss patterns of ecological niche evolution in the group and to suggest novel approaches for future analyses.

Comparison of different methods to forecast hospital bed needs

Objectives : This study compares three methods to forecast the number of acute somatic hospital beds needed in a Swiss academic hospital over the period 2010-2030. Design : Information about inpatient stays is provided through a yearly mandatory reporting of Swiss hospitals, containing anonymized data. Forecast of the numbers of beds needed compares a basic scenario relying on population projections with two other methods in use in our country that integrate additional hypotheses on future trends in admission rates and length of stay (LOS).