Comparing predictions of extinction risk using models and subjective judgement

Models of population dynamics are commonly used to predict risks in ecology, particularly risks of population decline. There is often considerable uncertainty associated with these predictions. However, alternatives to predictions based on population models have not been assessed. We used simulation models of hypothetical species to generate the kinds of data that might typically be available to ecologists and then invited other researchers to predict risks of population declines using these data. The accuracy of the predictions was assessed by comparison with the forecasts of the original model. The researchers used either population models or subjective judgement to make their predictions. Predictions made using models were only slightly more accurate than subjective judgements of risk. However, predictions using models tended to be unbiased, while subjective judgements were biased towards over-estimation. Psychology literature suggests that the bias of subjective judgements is likely to vary somewhat unpredictably among people, depending on their stake in the outcome. This will make subjective predictions more uncertain and less transparent than those based on models. (C) 2004 Elsevier SAS. All rights reserved.

A prospective comparison of two models of cannabis use and psychotic relapse in early psychosis

No abstract

Virtual models of the HLA class I antigen processing pathway

Antigen recognition by cytotoxic CD8 T cells is dependent upon a number of critical steps in MHC class I antigen processing including proteosomal cleavage, TAP transport into the endoplasmic reticulum, and MHC class 1 binding. Based on extensive experimental data relating to each of these steps there is now the capacity to model individual antigen processing steps with a high degree of accuracy. This paper demonstrates the potential to bring together models of individual antigen processing steps, for example proteosome cleavage, TAP transport, and MHC binding, to build highly informative models of functional pathways. In particular, we demonstrate how an artificial neural network model of TAP transport was used to mine a HLA-binding database so as to identify H LA-binding peptides transported by TAP. This integrated model of antigen processing provided the unique insight that HLA class I alleles apparently constitute two separate classes: those that are TAP-efficient for peptide loading (HLA-B27, -A3, and -A24) and those that are TAP-inefficient (HLA-A2, -B7, and -B8). Hence, using this integrated model we were able to generate novel hypotheses regarding antigen processing, and these hypotheses are now capable of being tested experimentally. This model confirms the feasibility of constructing a virtual immune system, whereby each additional step in antigen processing is incorporated into a single modular model. Accurate models of antigen processing have implications for the study of basic immunology as well as for the design of peptide-based vaccines and other immunotherapies. (C) 2004 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Dermaseptin 01 as antimicrobial peptide with rich biotechnological potential: study of peptide interaction with membranes containing Leishmania amazonensis lipid-rich extract and membrane models

This article addresses the interactions of the synthetic antimicrobial peptide dermaseptin 01 (GLWSTIKQKGKEAAIAAA-KAAGQAALGAL-NH(2), DS 01) with phospholipid (PL) monolayers comprising (i) a lipid-rich extract of Leishmania amazonensis (LRE-La), (ii) zwitterionic PL (dipalmitoylphosphatidylcholine, DPPC), and (iii) negatively charged PL (dipalmitoylphosphatidylglycerol, DPPG). The degree of interaction of DS 01 with the different biomembrane models was quantified from equilibrium and dynamic liquid-air interface parameters. At low peptide concentrations, interactions between DS 01 and zwitterionic PL, as well as with the LRE-La monolayers were very weak, whereas with negatively charged PLs the interactions were stronger. For peptide concentrations above 1 mu g/ml, a considerable expansion of negatively charged monolayers occurred. In the case of DPPC, it was possible to return to the original lipid area in the condensed phase, suggesting that the peptide was expelled from the monolayer. However, in the case of DPPG, the average area per lipid molecule in the presence of DS 01 was higher than pure PLs even at high surface pressures, suggesting that at least part of DS 01 remained incorporated in the monolayer. For the LRE-La monolayers, DS 01 also remained in the monolayer. This is the first report on the antiparasitic activity of AMPs using Langmuir monolayers of a natural lipid extract from L. amazonensis. Copyright (C) 2011 European Peptide Society and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

ANNA: A new prediction method for bioassessment programs

1. Cluster analysis of reference sites with similar biota is the initial step in creating River Invertebrate Prediction and Classification System (RIVPACS) and similar river bioassessment models such as Australian River Assessment System (AUSRIVAS). This paper describes and tests an alternative prediction method, Assessment by Nearest Neighbour Analysis (ANNA), based on the same philosophy as RIVPACS and AUSRIVAS but without the grouping step that some people view as artificial. 2. The steps in creating ANNA models are: (i) weighting the predictor variables using a multivariate approach analogous to principal axis correlations, (ii) calculating the weighted Euclidian distance from a test site to the reference sites based on the environmental predictors, (iii) predicting the faunal composition based on the nearest reference sites and (iv) calculating an observed/expected (O/E) analogous to RIVPACS/AUSRIVAS. 3. The paper compares AUSRIVAS and ANNA models on 17 datasets representing a variety of habitats and seasons. First, it examines each model's regressions for Observed versus Expected number of taxa, including the r(2), intercept and slope. Second, the two models' assessments of 79 test sites in New Zealand are compared. Third, the models are compared on test and presumed reference sites along a known trace metal gradient. Fourth, ANNA models are evaluated for western Australia, a geographically distinct region of Australia. The comparisons demonstrate that ANNA and AUSRIVAS are generally equivalent in performance, although ANNA turns out to be potentially more robust for the O versus E regressions and is potentially more accurate on the trace metal gradient sites. 4. The ANNA method is recommended for use in bioassessment of rivers, at least for corroborating the results of the well established AUSRIVAS- and RIVPACS-type models, if not to replace them.

Attentional modulation of neural responses to action observation: Implications for models of the human 'mirror' system

In primates, the observation of meaningful, goaldirected actions engages a network of cortical areas located within the premotor and inferior parietal lobules. Current models suggest that activity within these regions arises relatively automatically during passive action observation without the need for topdown control. Here we used functional magnetic resonance imaging to determine whether cortical activit)' associated with action observation is modulated by the strategic allocation of selective attention. Normal observers viewed movie clips of reach-to-grasp actions while performing an easy or difficult visual discrimination at the fovea. A wholebrain analysis was performed to determine the effects of attentional load on neural responses to observed hand actions. Our results suggest that cortical areas involved in action observation are significantiy modulated by attentional load. These findings have important implications for recent attempts to link the human action-observation system to response properties of "mirror neurons" in monkeys.

Expectation Propagation with Factorizing Distributions: A Gaussian Approximation and Performance Results for Simple Models

We discuss the expectation propagation (EP) algorithm for approximate Bayesian inference using a factorizing posterior approximation. For neural network models, we use a central limit theorem argument to make EP tractable when the number of parameters is large. For two types of models, we show that EP can achieve optimal generalization performance when data are drawn from a simple distribution.

Drinfeld twists and symmetric Bethe vectors of supersymmetric fermion models

We construct the Drinfeld twists ( factorizing F-matrices) of the gl(m-n)-invariant fermion model. Completely symmetric representation of the pseudo-particle creation operators of the model are obtained in the basis provided by the F-matrix ( the F-basis). We resolve the hierarchy of the nested Bethe vectors in the F-basis for the gl(m-n) supersymmetric model.

Evaluation of the effects of Candidatus Liberibacter asiaticus on inoculated citrus plants using laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) and chemometrics tools

This study investigated the organic and inorganic constituents of healthy leaves and Candidatus Liberibacter asiaticus (CLas)-inoculated leaves of citrus plants. The bacteria CLas are one of the causal agents of citrus greening (or Huanglongbing) and its effect on citrus leaves was investigated using laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) combined with chemometrics. The information obtained from the LIBS spectra profiles with chemometrics analysis was promising for the construction of predictive models to identify healthy and infected plants. The major, macro- and microconstituents were relevant for differentiation of the sample conditions. The models were then applied to different inoculation times (from 1 to 8 months). The models were effective in the classification of 82-97% of the diseased samples with a 95% significance level. The novelty of this method was in the fingerprinting of healthy and diseased plants based on their organic and inorganic contents. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Generic classification for the Gasteruptiinae (Hymenoptera: Gasteruptiidae) based on a cladistic analysis, with the description of two new Neotropical genera and the revalidation of Plutofoenus Kieffer

Gasteruptiinae is the largest Gasteruptiidae subfamily, with circa 400 species that have been grouped into the worldwide Gasteruption Latreille. Based on a cladistic analysis with 43 morphological characters, 40 ingroup taxa representing all biogeographic regions, and seven outgroups (four Hyptiogastrinae, two Aulacidae and one Evaniidae), I confirm the monophyly of Gasteruptiinae and Gasteruption and recognize three exclusively Neotropical small genera: Plutofoenus Kieffer (revalidated) (southern South America), Spinolafoenus Macedo n. gen. (Chile) and Trilobitofoenus Macedo n. gen. (Central and South America). Gasteruption, supported by four synapomorphies, remains the most speciose genus in the subfamily. The four Gasteruptiinae genera are keyed and described. Seven species are keyed and described or redescribed: Plutofoenus chaeturus (Schletterer) n. comb., P. edwardsi Turner, P. paraguayensis (Schrottky), Spinolafoenus ruficornis (Spinola) n. comb., Trilobitofoenus alvarengai Macedo n. sp., T. plaumanni Macedo n. sp. and T. sericeus (Cameron) n. comb. (lectotype designated).

EULAR/PRINTO/PRES criteria for Henoch-Schonlein purpura, childhood polyarteritis nodosa, childhood Wegener granulomatosis and childhood Takayasu arteritis: Ankara 2008. Part II: Final classification criteria

Objectives To validate the previously proposed classification criteria for Henoch-Schonlein purpura (HSP), childhood polyarteritis nodosa (c-PAN), c-Wegener granulomatosis (c-WG) and c-Takayasu arteritis (c-TA). Methods Step 1: retrospective/prospective webdata collection for children with HSP, c-PAN, c-WG and c-TA with age at diagnosis <= 18 years. Step 2: blinded classification by consensus panel of a representative sample of 280 cases. Step 3: statistical (sensitivity, specificity, area under the curve and.-agreement) and nominal group technique consensus evaluations. Results 827 patients with HSP, 150 with c-PAN, 60 with c-WG, 87 with c-TA and 52 with c-other were compared with each other. A patient was classified as HSP in the presence of purpura or petechiae (mandatory) with lower limb predominance plus one of four criteria: (1) abdominal pain; (2) histopathology (IgA); (3) arthritis or arthralgia; (4) renal involvement. Classification of c-PAN required a systemic inflammatory disease with evidence of necrotising vasculitis OR angiographic abnormalities of medium-/small-sized arteries (mandatory criterion) plus one of five criteria: (1) skin involvement; (2) myalgia/muscle tenderness; (3) hypertension; (4) peripheral neuropathy; (5) renal involvement. Classification of c-WG required three of six criteria: (1) histopathological evidence of granulomatous inflammation; (2) upper airway involvement; (3) laryngo-tracheo-bronchial involvement; (4) pulmonary involvement (x-ray/CT); (5) antineutrophilic cytoplasmic antibody positivity; (6) renal involvement. Classification of c-TA required typical angiographic abnormalities of the aorta or its main branches and pulmonary arteries (mandatory criterion) plus one of five criteria: (1) pulse deficit or claudication; (2) blood pressure discrepancy in any limb; (3) bruits; (4) hypertension; (5) elevated acute phase reactant. Conclusion European League Against Rheumatism/Paediatric Rheumatology International Trials Organisation/Paediatric Rheumatology European Society propose validated classification criteria for HSP, c-PAN, c-WG and c-TA with high sensitivity/specificity.

Effects of immunosuppressants on hepatocyte cell mitosis during liver regeneration in growing animal models of partial hepatectomy

Objective. We sought to evaluate the effects of immunosuppressant drugs (corticosteroid, cyclosporine [CsA], and tacrolimus [Tac]) on liver regeneration in growing animals submitted to 70% hepatectomy. Materials and Methods. Newborn and weaning rats were submitted to 70% hepatectomy receiving separately methylprednisolone, CsA, or Tac. All animals were sacrificed 24 hours after the procedure. The remnant liver lobes were subjected to histomorphometric analyses with determination of hepatocyte mitotic index. Results., Administration of immunosuppressants did not change the mitotic index of the regenerating liver in newborn animals. In weaning rats, methylprednisolone reduced the mitotic index (P = .01) and Tac caused a greater increase in this rate (P = .001). CsA had no effect on mitotic index. The number of hepatocyte mitoses in newborn animal livers was greater than that in weaning animal livers (P = .001). Conclusion. In situations in which intense, fast processes of liver regeneration are crucial, the advantages of the use of Tac must be considered, such as in pediatric transplant patients.