929 resultados para Bayesian approaches
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During the 1990's studies of management accounting practices in Europe and in Latin America have given us data on 23 countries. In this paper we use this data to identify five distinct aspects of national management accounting culture being:1. The influence of regulations on official recommendations;2. The source of management accountants;3. Influence from one country to another;4. Variations in use of specific techniques;5. Variations in the objectives of the management accounting system.We then identify seven significant implications of the manager operating in the multinational environment.
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We provide methods for forecasting variables and predicting turning points in panel Bayesian VARs. We specify a flexible model which accounts for both interdependencies in the cross section and time variations in the parameters. Posterior distributions for the parameters are obtained for a particular type of diffuse, for Minnesota-type and for hierarchical priors. Formulas for multistep, multiunit point and average forecasts are provided. An application to the problem of forecasting the growth rate of output and of predicting turning points in the G-7 illustrates the approach. A comparison with alternative forecasting methods is also provided.
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Abstract Accurate characterization of the spatial distribution of hydrological properties in heterogeneous aquifers at a range of scales is a key prerequisite for reliable modeling of subsurface contaminant transport, and is essential for designing effective and cost-efficient groundwater management and remediation strategies. To this end, high-resolution geophysical methods have shown significant potential to bridge a critical gap in subsurface resolution and coverage between traditional hydrological measurement techniques such as borehole log/core analyses and tracer or pumping tests. An important and still largely unresolved issue, however, is how to best quantitatively integrate geophysical data into a characterization study in order to estimate the spatial distribution of one or more pertinent hydrological parameters, thus improving hydrological predictions. Recognizing the importance of this issue, the aim of the research presented in this thesis was to first develop a strategy for the assimilation of several types of hydrogeophysical data having varying degrees of resolution, subsurface coverage, and sensitivity to the hydrologic parameter of interest. In this regard a novel simulated annealing (SA)-based conditional simulation approach was developed and then tested in its ability to generate realizations of porosity given crosshole ground-penetrating radar (GPR) and neutron porosity log data. This was done successfully for both synthetic and field data sets. A subsequent issue that needed to be addressed involved assessing the potential benefits and implications of the resulting porosity realizations in terms of groundwater flow and contaminant transport. This was investigated synthetically assuming first that the relationship between porosity and hydraulic conductivity was well-defined. Then, the relationship was itself investigated in the context of a calibration procedure using hypothetical tracer test data. Essentially, the relationship best predicting the observed tracer test measurements was determined given the geophysically derived porosity structure. Both of these investigations showed that the SA-based approach, in general, allows much more reliable hydrological predictions than other more elementary techniques considered. Further, the developed calibration procedure was seen to be very effective, even at the scale of tomographic resolution, for predictions of transport. This also held true at locations within the aquifer where only geophysical data were available. This is significant because the acquisition of hydrological tracer test measurements is clearly more complicated and expensive than the acquisition of geophysical measurements. Although the above methodologies were tested using porosity logs and GPR data, the findings are expected to remain valid for a large number of pertinent combinations of geophysical and borehole log data of comparable resolution and sensitivity to the hydrological target parameter. Moreover, the obtained results allow us to have confidence for future developments in integration methodologies for geophysical and hydrological data to improve the 3-D estimation of hydrological properties.
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Structural equation models (SEM) are commonly used to analyze the relationship between variables some of which may be latent, such as individual ``attitude'' to and ``behavior'' concerning specific issues. A number of difficulties arise when we want to compare a large number of groups, each with large sample size, and the manifest variables are distinctly non-normally distributed. Using an specific data set, we evaluate the appropriateness of the following alternative SEM approaches: multiple group versus MIMIC models, continuous versus ordinal variables estimation methods, and normal theory versus non-normal estimation methods. The approaches are applied to the ISSP-1993 Environmental data set, with the purpose of exploring variation in the mean level of variables of ``attitude'' to and ``behavior''concerning environmental issues and their mutual relationship across countries. Issues of both theoretical and practical relevance arise in the course of this application.
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This paper proposes a common and tractable framework for analyzingdifferent definitions of fixed and random effects in a contant-slopevariable-intercept model. It is shown that, regardless of whethereffects (i) are treated as parameters or as an error term, (ii) areestimated in different stages of a hierarchical model, or whether (iii)correlation between effects and regressors is allowed, when the sameinformation on effects is introduced into all estimation methods, theresulting slope estimator is also the same across methods. If differentmethods produce different results, it is ultimately because differentinformation is being used for each methods.
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ABSTRACT There are approximately 130 species of MycodrosophilaOldenberg, 1914 worldwide, although only nine species were recorded in American countries so far, three of which are exclusively Nearctic, five exclusively Neotropical and one found in both biogeographic regions (Mycodrosophila projectans). Such a small number of American species is likely a consequence of collecting bias, which favors the capture of frugivorous drosophilids, and to the general absence of Neotropical Mycodrosophila studies in the last 50 years. Here, we describe two commonly sampled species of Mycodrosophila from the Amazonian and Pampa Brazilian biomes, which share morphological similarities with Mycodrosophila neoprojectans and M. projectans, respectively. We compared sequences of the mitochondrial gene cytochrome oxidase subunit I (COI), external morphology characteristics and male terminalia among these species. Based on a DNA barcoding approach coupled to morphological differences, we proposed the delimitation of two new species, Mycodrosophila hofmanni sp. nov. and Mycodrosophila valentae sp. nov. An updated key to identifying Neotropical and Nearctic Mycodrosophila species is also provided.
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Introduction: As imatinib pharmacokinetics are highly variable, plasma levels differ largely between patients under the same dosage. Retrospective studies in chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) patients showed significant correlations between low levels and suboptimal response, as well as between high levels and poor tolerability. Monitoring of trough plasma levels, targeting 1000 μg/L and above, is thus increasingly advised. Our study was launched to assess prospectively the clinical usefulness of systematic imatinib TDM in CML patients. This preliminary analysis addresses the appropriateness of the dosage adjustment approach applied in this study, which targets the recommended trough level and allows an interval of 4-24 h after last drug intake for blood sampling. Methods: Blood samples from the first 15 patients undergoing 1st TDM were obtained 1.5-25 h after last dose. Imatinib plasma levels were measured by LC-MS/MS and the concentrations were extrapolated to trough based on a Bayesian approach using a population pharmacokinetic model. Trough levels were predicted to differ significantly from the target in 12 patients (10 <750 μg/L; 2 >1500 μg/L along with poor tolerance) and individual dose adjustments were proposed. 8 patients underwent a 2nd TDM cycle. Trough levels of 1st and 2nd TDM were compared, the sample drawn 1.5 h after last dose (during distribution phase) was excluded from the analysis. Results: Individual dose adjustments were applied in 6 patients. Observed concentrations extrapolated to trough ranged from 360 to 1832 μg/L (median 725; mean 810, CV 52%) on 1st TDM and from 720 to 1187 μg/L (median 950; mean 940, CV 18%) on 2nd TDM cycle. Conclusions: These preliminary results suggest that TDM of imatinib using a Bayesian interpretation is able to target the recommended trough level of 1000 μg/L and to reduce the considerable differences in trough level exposure between patients (with CV decreasing from 52% to 18%). While this may simplify blood collection in daily practice, as samples do not have to be drawn exactly at trough, the largest possible interval to last drug intake yet remains preferable to avoid sampling during distribution phase leading to biased extrapolation. This encourages the evaluation of the clinical benefit of a routine TDM intervention in CML patients, which the randomized Swiss I-COME trial aims to.
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Overall introduction.- Longitudinal studies have been designed to investigate prospectively, from their beginning, the pathway leading from health to frailty and to disability. Knowledge about determinants of healthy ageing and health behaviour (resources) as well as risks of functional decline is required to propose appropriate preventative interventions. The functional status in older people is important considering clinical outcome in general, healthcare need and mortality. Part I.- Results and interventions from lucas (longitudinal urban cohort ageing study). Authors.- J. Anders, U. Dapp, L. Neumann, F. Pröfener, C. Minder, S. Golgert, A. Daubmann, K. Wegscheider,. W. von Renteln-Kruse Methods.- The LUCAS core project is a longitudinal cohort of urban community-dwelling people 60 years and older, recruited in 2000/2001. Further LUCAS projects are cross-sectional comparative and interventional studies (RCT). Results.- The emphasis will be on geriatric medical care in a population-based approach, discussing different forms of access, too. (Dapp et al. BMC Geriatrics 2012, 12:35; http://www.biomedcentral.com/1471-2318/12/35): - longitudinal data from the LUCAS urban cohort (n = 3.326) will be presented covering 10 years of observation, including the prediction of functional decline, need of nursing care, and mortality by using a self-filling screening tool; - interventions to prevent functional decline do focus on first (pre-clinical) signs of pre-frailty before entering the frailty-cascade ("Active Health Promotion in Old Age", "geriatric mobility centre") or disability ("home visits"). Conclusions.- The LUCAS research consortium was established to study particular aspects of functional competence, its changes with ageing, to detect pre-clinical signs of functional decline, and to address questions on how to maintain functional competence and to prevent adverse outcome in different settings. The multidimensional data base allows the exploration of several further questions. Gait performance was exmined by GAITRite®-System. Supported by the Federal Ministry for Education and Research (BMBF Funding No. 01ET1002A). Part II.- Selected results from the lausanne cohort 65+ (Lc65 + ) Study (Switzerland). Authors.- Prof Santos-Eggimann Brigitte, Dr Seematter-Bagnoud Laurence, Prof Büla Christophe, Dr Rochat Stéphane. Methods.- The Lc65+ cohort was launched in 2004 with the random selection of 3054 eligible individuals aged 65 to 70 (birth year 1934-1938) in the non-institutionalized population of Lausanne (Switzerland). Results.- Information is collected about life course social and health-related events, socio-economics, medical and psychosocial dimensions, lifestyle habits, limitations in activities of daily living, mobility impairments, and falls. Gait performance are objectively measured using body-fixed sensors. Frailty is assessed using Fried's frailty phenotype. Follow-up consists in annual self-completed questionnaires, as well as physical examination and physical and mental performance tests every three years. - Lausanne cohort 65+ (Lc65 + ): design and longitudinal outcomes. The baseline data collection was completed among 1422 participants in 2004-2005 through self-completed questionnaires, face-to-face interviews, physical examination and tests of mental and physical performances. Information about institutionalization, self-reported health services utilization, and death is also assessed. An additional random sample (n = 1525) of 65-70 years old subjects was recruited in 2009 (birth year 1939-1943). - lecture no 4: alcohol intake and gait parameters: prevalent and longitudinal association in the Lc65+ study. The association between alcohol intake and gait performance was investigated.
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Understanding how communities of living organisms assemble has been a central question in ecology since the early days of the discipline. Disentangling the different processes involved in community assembly is not only interesting in itself but also crucial for an understanding of how communities will behave under future environmental scenarios. The traditional concept of assembly rules reflects the notion that species do not co-occur randomly but are restricted in their co-occurrence by interspecific competition. This concept can be redefined in a more general framework where the co-occurrence of species is a product of chance, historical patterns of speciation and migration, dispersal, abiotic environmental factors, and biotic interactions, with none of these processes being mutually exclusive. Here we present a survey and meta-analyses of 59 papers that compare observed patterns in plant communities with null models simulating random patterns of species assembly. According to the type of data under study and the different methods that are applied to detect community assembly, we distinguish four main types of approach in the published literature: species co-occurrence, niche limitation, guild proportionality and limiting similarity. Results from our meta-analyses suggest that non-random co-occurrence of plant species is not a widespread phenomenon. However, whether this finding reflects the individualistic nature of plant communities or is caused by methodological shortcomings associated with the studies considered cannot be discerned from the available metadata. We advocate that more thorough surveys be conducted using a set of standardized methods to test for the existence of assembly rules in data sets spanning larger biological and geographical scales than have been considered until now. We underpin this general advice with guidelines that should be considered in future assembly rules research. This will enable us to draw more accurate and general conclusions about the non-random aspect of assembly in plant communities.