Antarctic temperature changes during the last millennium: evaluation of simulations and reconstructions

Temperature changes in Antarctica over the last millennium are investigated using proxy records, a set of simulations driven by natural and anthropogenic forcings and one simulation with data assimilation. Over Antarctica, a long term cooling trend in annual mean is simulated during the period 1000–1850. The main contributor to this cooling trend is the volcanic forcing, astronomical forcing playing a dominant role at seasonal timescale. Since 1850, all the models produce an Antarctic warming in response to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations. We present a composite of Antarctic temperature, calculated by averaging seven temperature records derived from isotope measurements in ice cores. This simple approach is supported by the coherency displayed between model results at these data grid points and Antarctic mean temperature. The composite shows a weak multi-centennial cooling trend during the pre-industrial period and a warming after 1850 that is broadly consistent with model results. In both data and simulations, large regional variations are superimposed on this common signal, at decadal to centennial timescales. The model results appear spatially more consistent than ice core records. We conclude that more records are needed to resolve the complex spatial distribution of Antarctic temperature variations during the last millennium.

The Social Geography of Education: Neighborhood, Class Composition, and the Educational Achievement of Elementary School Students in Zurich, Switzerland

Despite an impressive amount of research and policy intervention no robust pattern of neighborhood effects on educational attainment has previously been identified. Adequate theoretical modeling and the sensitivity of the results to the method of the study are the major challenges in this area of research. This paper elaborates the social mechanisms of neighborhood effects and applies various methodological approaches to test them. Using data from Switzerland, the research reported here has detected heterogeneous effects of neighborhood on elementary school students’ educational achievement in Zurich. Although modest in comparison with the effects of classroom composition, these effects appear to be mediated primarily through social integration into a local peer network and are differentiated according to students’ gender and their social origin.

Philosophia Britannica: or, a new and comprehensive system of the Newtonian philosophy, astronomy, and geography, in a course of twelve lectures, with notes

by B. Martin

(Table 2) Stratigraphic position of midpoints of reddish and beige layers of lithologic cycles in the Loulja-A Section and their astronomical ages after tuning to the ETP and Summer Insolation Curves of the La2004 solution

An integrated high-resolution stratigraphy and orbital tuning is presented for the Loulja sections located in the Bou Regreg area on the Atlantic side of Morocco. The sections constitute the upward continuation of the upper Messinian Ain el Beida section and contain a well-exposed, continuous record of the interval straddling the Miocene-Pliocene (M-P) boundary. The older Loulja-A section, which covers the interval from ~5.59 to 5.12 Ma, reveals a dominantly precession-controlled color cyclicity that allows for a straightforward orbital tuning of the boundary interval and for detailed cyclostratigraphic correlations to the Mediterranean; the high-resolution and high-quality benthic isotope record allows us to trace the dominantly obliquity-controlled glacial history. Our results reveal that the M-P boundary coincides with a minor, partly precession-related shift to lighter "interglacial" values in d18O. This shift and hence the M-P boundary may not correlate with isotope stage TG5, as previously thought, but with an extra (weak) obliquity-controlled cycle between TG7 and TG5. Consequently, the M-P boundary and basal Pliocene flooding of the Mediterranean following the Messinian salinity crisis are not associated with a major deglaciation and glacio-eustatic sea level rise, indicating that other factors, such as tectonics, must have played a fundamental role. On the other hand, the onset of the Upper Evaporites in the Mediterranean marked by hyposaline conditions coincides with the major deglaciation step between marine isotope stage TG12 and TG11, suggesting that the associated sea level rise is at least partly responsible for the apparent onset of intermittently restricted marine conditions following the main desiccation phase. Finally, the Loulja-A section would represent an excellent auxiliary boundary stratotype for the M-P boundary as formally defined at the base of the Trubi marls in the Eraclea Minoa section on Sicily.

(Table 1) Position and astronomical ages of sedimentary cycles in the eastern Mediterranean Sea

An astronomically calibrated timescale has recently been established [Hilgen, 1991, doi:10.1016/0012-821X(91)90082-S; doi:10.1016/0012-821X(91)90206-W] for the Pliocene and earliest Pleistocene based on the correlation of dominantly precession controlled sedimentary cycles (sapropels and carbonate cycles) in Mediterranean marine sequences to the precession time series of the astronomical solution of Berger and Loutre [1991, doi:10.1016/0277-3791(91)90033-Q ] (hereinafter referred to as Ber90). Here we evaluate the accuracy of this timescale by (1) comparing the sedimentary cycle patterns with 65°N summer insolation time series of different astronomical solutions and (2) a cross-spectral comparison between the obliquity-related components in the 65°N summer insolation curves and high-resolution paleoclimatic records derived from the same sections used to construct the timescale. Our results show that the carbonate cycles older than 3.5 m.y. should be calibrated to one precession cycle older than previously proposed. Application of the astronomical solution of Laskar [1990, doi:10.1016/0019-1035(90)90084-M], (hereinafter referred to as La90) with present-day values for the dynamical ellipticity of the Earth and tidal dissipation by the Sun and Moon results in the best fit with the geological record, indicating that this solution is the most accurate from a geological point of view. Application of Ber90, or La90 solutions with dynamical ellipticity values smaller or larger than the present-day value, results in a less obvious fit with the geological record. This implies that the change in the planetary shape of the Earth associated with ice loading and unloading near the poles during the last 5.3 million years was too small to drive the precession into resonance with the perturbation term, s6-g6+g5, of Jupiter and Saturn. Our new timescale results in a slight but significant modification of all ages of the sedimentary cycles, bioevents, reversal boundaries, chronostratigraphic boundaries, and glacial cycles. Moreover, a comparison of this timescale with the astronomical timescales of ODP site 846 [Shackleton et al., 1995, doi:10.2973/odp.proc.sr.138.106.1995; doi:10.2973/odp.proc.sr.138.117.1995] and ODP site 659 [Tiedemann et al., 1994, doi:10.1029/94PA00208] indicates that all obliquity-related glacial cycles prior to ~4.7 Ma in ODP sites 659 and 846 should be correlated with one obliquity cycle older than previously proposed.