A fully adaptive numerical approximation for a two-dimensional epidemic model with nonlinear cross-diffusion

An epidemic model is formulated by a reactionâeuro"diffusion system where the spatial pattern formation is driven by cross-diffusion. The reaction terms describe the local dynamics of susceptible and infected species, whereas the diffusion terms account for the spatial distribution dynamics. For both self-diffusion and cross-diffusion, nonlinear constitutive assumptions are suggested. To simulate the pattern formation two finite volume formulations are proposed, which employ a conservative and a non-conservative discretization, respectively. An efficient simulation is obtained by a fully adaptive multiresolution strategy. Numerical examples illustrate the impact of the cross-diffusion on the pattern formation.

Reconstructing images from their most singular fractal manifold

Real-world images are complex objects, difficult to describe but at the same time possessing a high degree of redundancy. A very recent study [1] on the statistical properties of natural images reveals that natural images can be viewed through different partitions which are essentially fractal in nature. One particular fractal component, related to the most singular (sharpest) transitions in the image, seems to be highly informative about the whole scene. In this paper we will show how to decompose the image into their fractal components.We will see that the most singular component is related to (but not coincident with) the edges of the objects present in the scenes. We will propose a new, simple method to reconstruct the image with information contained in that most informative component.We will see that the quality of the reconstruction is strongly dependent on the capability to extract the relevant edges in the determination of the most singular set.We will discuss the results from the perspective of coding, proposing this method as a starting point for future developments.

Annual Report Of the State Geologist, March 2012

What we do: Since 1892, the Iowa Geological and Water Survey (IGWS) has provided earth, water, and mapping science to all Iowans. We collect and interpret information on subsurface geologic conditions, groundwater and surface water quantity and quality, and the natural and built features of our landscape. This information is critical for: Predicting the future availability of economic water supplies and mineral resources. Assuring proper function of waste disposal facilities. Delineation of geologic hazards that may jeopardize property and public safety. Assessing trends and providing protection of water quality and soil resources. Applied technical assistance for economic development and environmental stewardship. Our goal: Providing the tools for good decision making to assure the long-term vitality of Iowa’s communities, businesses, and quality of life. Information and technical assistance are provided through web-based databases, comprehensive Geographic Information System (GIS) tools, predictive groundwater models, and watershed assessments and improvement grants. The key service we provide is direct assistance from our technical staff, working with Iowans to overcome real-world challenges. This report describes the basic functions of IGWS program areas and highlights major activities and accomplishments during calendar year 2011. More information on IGWS is available at http://www.igsb.uiowa.edu/.

To select or to weigh: a comparative study of linear combination schemes for superparent-one-dependence estimators

We conduct a large-scale comparative study on linearly combining superparent-one-dependence estimators (SPODEs), a popular family of seminaive Bayesian classifiers. Altogether, 16 model selection and weighing schemes, 58 benchmark data sets, and various statistical tests are employed. This paper's main contributions are threefold. First, it formally presents each scheme's definition, rationale, and time complexity and hence can serve as a comprehensive reference for researchers interested in ensemble learning. Second, it offers bias-variance analysis for each scheme's classification error performance. Third, it identifies effective schemes that meet various needs in practice. This leads to accurate and fast classification algorithms which have an immediate and significant impact on real-world applications. Another important feature of our study is using a variety of statistical tests to evaluate multiple learning methods across multiple data sets.

Acute multivessel revascularization improves 1-year outcome in ST-elevation myocardial infarction: a nationwide study cohort from the AMIS Plus registry.

BACKGROUND: The optimal strategy for percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) of ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) in multi-vessel disease (MVD), i.e., multi-vessel PCI (MV-PCI) vs. PCI of the infarct-related artery only (IRA-PCI), still remains unknown. METHODS: Patients of the AMIS Plus registry admitted with an acute coronary syndrome were contacted after a median of 378 days (interquartile range 371-409). The primary end-point was all-cause death. The secondary end-point included all major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events (MACCE) including death, re-infarction, re-hospitalization for cardiac causes, any cardiac re-intervention, and stroke. RESULTS: Between 2005 and 2012, 8330 STEMI patients were identified, of whom 1909 (24%) had MVD. Of these, 442 (23%) received MV-PCI and 1467 (77%) IRA-PCI. While all-cause mortality was similar in both groups (2.7% both, p>0.99), MACCE was significantly lower after MV-PCI vs. IRA-PCI (15.6% vs. 20.0%, p=0.038), mainly driven by lower rates of cardiac re-hospitalization and cardiac re-intervention. Patients undergoing MV-PCI with drug-eluting stents had lower rates of all-cause mortality (2.1% vs. 7.4%, p=0.026) and MACCE (14.1% vs. 25.9%, p=0.042) compared with those receiving bare metal stents (BMS). In multivariate analysis, MV-PCI (odds ratio, OR 0.69, 95% CI 0.51-0.93, p=0.017) and comorbidities (Charlson index ≥ 2; OR 1.42, 95% CI 1.05-1.92, p=0.025) were independent predictors for 1-year MACCE. CONCLUSION: In an unselected nationwide real-world cohort, an approach using immediate complete revascularization may be beneficial in STEMI patients with MVD regarding MACCE, specifically when drug-eluting stents are used, but not regarding mortality. This has to be tested in a randomized controlled trial.

Lessons Learned from 15 Years of KIMS and 5 Years of ACROSTUDY.

Background: Pharmacoepidemiological surveys provide a valuable contribution to the continued monitoring of drug-related effects in patients with rare disorders. One of the earliest examples of this type of survey is KIGS (Pfizer International Growth Study Database), which has monitored the safety and effectiveness of growth hormone (GH) therapy in GH-deficient children since its inception in 1987. Following closely in the footsteps of KIGS is KIMS (Pfizer International Metabolic Database). As of 2009, KIMS has been collecting data on the long-term safety and clinical outcomes of GH replacement in GH-deficient adults for 15 years. Approximately 5 years ago, the ACROSTUDY database was established to monitor the long-term safety and effectiveness of pegvisomant in patients with acromegaly. Conclusions: By collecting data on the treatment of relatively rare conditions in routine clinical practice, pharmacoepidemiological surveys such as KIMS and ACROSTUDY provide valuable information on the safety and effectiveness of treatment with GH replacement and pegvisomant in the real world.

Lack of original antigenic sin in recall CD8(+) T cell responses.

In the real world, mice and men are not immunologically naive, having been exposed to numerous antigenic challenges. Prior infections sometimes negatively impact the response to a subsequent infection. This can occur in serial infections with pathogens sharing cross-reactive Ags. At the T cell level it has been proposed that preformed memory T cells, which cross-react with low avidity to epitopes presented in subsequent infections, dampen the response of high-avidity T cells. We investigated this with a series of related MHC class-I restricted Ags expressed by bacterial and viral pathogens. In all cases, we find that high-avidity CD8(+) T cell precursors, either naive or memory, massively expand in secondary cross-reactive infections to dominate the response over low-avidity memory T cells. This holds true even when >10% of the CD8(+) T cell compartment consists of memory T cells that cross-react weakly with the rechallenge ligand. Occasionally, memory cells generated by low-avidity stimulation in a primary infection recognize a cross-reactive epitope with high avidity and contribute positively to the response to a second infection. Taken together, our data show that the phenomenon of original antigenic sin does not occur in all heterologous infections.

Effectiveness of Parallel Noise Barriers - An Iowa Study, HR-540, 1987

Traffic noise monitoring using FHWA's Demonstration Projects Division Mobile Noise Laboratory at free field, single wall and parallel barrier site on I-380 in Evansdale, Iowa is described. Access to I-380 prior to its being open to traffic afforded a controlled pass-by monitoring phase involving different vehicle types. A subsequent second phase entailed identical measurement methodology to monitor "real world" I-380 traffic noise. Phase I data indicated increases in noise were significant under the parallel barrier conditions for light duty vehicles operating in the far lane. Phase II results showed that the actual I-380 traffic mix largely offset the earlier observed effect, but minor increases in traffic noise under the parallel system were noted. These differences in noise barrier system effectiveness are judged to be insignificant at this particular study location.

Large-scale clustering through functional embedding

We present a new framework for large-scale data clustering. The main idea is to modify functional dimensionality reduction techniques to directly optimize over discrete labels using stochastic gradient descent. Compared to methods like spectral clustering our approach solves a single optimization problem, rather than an ad-hoc two-stage optimization approach, does not require a matrix inversion, can easily encode prior knowledge in the set of implementable functions, and does not have an ?out-of-sample? problem. Experimental results on both artificial and real-world datasets show the usefulness of our approach.

Evaluation of a multicomponent worksite health promotion program for cardiovascular risk factors-correcting for the regression towards the mean effect.

BACKGROUND: We assessed the impact of a multicomponent worksite health promotion program for0 reducing cardiovascular risk factors (CVRF) with short intervention, adjusting for regression towards the mean (RTM) affecting such nonexperimental study without control group. METHODS: A cohort of 4,198 workers (aged 42 +/- 10 years, range 16-76 years, 27% women) were analyzed at 3.7-year interval and stratified by each CVRF risk category (low/medium/high blood pressure [BP], total cholesterol [TC], body mass index [BMI], and smoking) with RTM and secular trend adjustments. Intervention consisted of 15 min CVRF screening and individualized counseling by health professionals to medium- and high-risk individuals, with eventual physician referral. RESULTS: High-risk groups participants improved diastolic BP (-3.4 mm Hg [95%CI: -5.1, -1.7]) in 190 hypertensive patients, TC (-0.58 mmol/l [-0.71, -0.44]) in 693 hypercholesterolemic patients, and smoking (-3.1 cig/day [-3.9, -2.3]) in 808 smokers, while systolic BP changes reflected RTM. Low-risk individuals without counseling deteriorated TC and BMI. Body weight increased uniformly in all risk groups (+0.35 kg/year). CONCLUSIONS: In real-world conditions, short intervention program participants in high-risk groups for diastolic BP, TC, and smoking improved their CVRF, whereas low-risk TC and BMI groups deteriorated. Future programs may include specific advises to low-risk groups to maintain a favorable CVRF profile.

The EU-ADR Web Platform: delivering advanced pharmacovigilance tools

PURPOSE: Pharmacovigilance methods have advanced greatly during the last decades, making post-market drug assessment an essential drug evaluation component. These methods mainly rely on the use of spontaneous reporting systems and health information databases to collect expertise from huge amounts of real-world reports. The EU-ADR Web Platform was built to further facilitate accessing, monitoring and exploring these data, enabling an in-depth analysis of adverse drug reactions risks.METHODS: The EU-ADR Web Platform exploits the wealth of data collected within a large-scale European initiative, the EU-ADR project. Millions of electronic health records, provided by national health agencies, are mined for specific drug events, which are correlated with literature, protein and pathway data, resulting in a rich drug-event dataset. Next, advanced distributed computing methods are tailored to coordinate the execution of data-mining and statistical analysis tasks. This permits obtaining a ranked drug-event list, removing spurious entries and highlighting relationships with high risk potential.RESULTS: The EU-ADR Web Platform is an open workspace for the integrated analysis of pharmacovigilance datasets. Using this software, researchers can access a variety of tools provided by distinct partners in a single centralized environment. Besides performing standalone drug-event assessments, they can also control the pipeline for an improved batch analysis of custom datasets. Drug-event pairs can be substantiated and statistically analysed within the platform's innovative working environment.CONCLUSIONS: A pioneering workspace that helps in explaining the biological path of adverse drug reactions was developed within the EU-ADR project consortium. This tool, targeted at the pharmacovigilance community, is available online at https://bioinformatics.ua.pt/euadr/. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Modeling Merging Behavior at Lane Drops, InTrans Projects 13-466 and 06-277, 2015

In work-zone configurations where lane drops are present, merging of traffic at the taper presents an operational concern. In addition, as flow through the work zone is reduced, the relative traffic safety of the work zone is also reduced. Improving work-zone flow-through merge points depends on the behavior of individual drivers. By better understanding driver behavior, traffic control plans, work zone policies, and countermeasures can be better targeted to reinforce desirable lane closure merging behavior, leading to both improved safety and work-zone capacity. The researchers collected data for two work-zone scenarios that included lane drops with one scenario on the Interstate and the other on an urban arterial roadway. The researchers then modeled and calibrated these scenarios in VISSIM using real-world speeds, travel times, queue lengths, and merging behaviors (percentage of vehicles merging upstream and near the merge point). Once built and calibrated, the researchers modeled strategies for various countermeasures in the two work zones. The models were then used to test and evaluate how various merging strategies affect safety and operations at the merge areas in these two work zones.

Brief alcohol intervention as pragmatic intervention: Who is voluntarily taking an offered intervention?

Brief alcohol interventions (BAI) have shown the potential to decrease problematic alcohol use among adolescents and young adults. Most of the BAI studies have been efficacy trials designed to achieve high internal validity but have raised questions regarding the feasibility of large-scale implementation. Providing interventions for those voluntarily wanting them might offer an alternative, and studies using this design would be more similar to effectiveness studies. The present research compares randomly selected 20-year-old men who took part in a scientific trial (efficacy) with those who voluntarily sought an intervention (effectiveness). Sampling took place during army recruitment procedures that are mandatory for all males in Switzerland. At-risk drinking (20+ drinks per week, or more than one risky drinking occasion of 6+ drinks per month) was determined a posteriori; there was no screening. There were a higher percentage of at-risk drinkers in the volunteer arm at baseline, but at-risk drinkers did not differ from those in the trial arm on any of the assessed alcohol measures. This suggests that offering BAI on a large-scale, voluntary basis may reach at-risk drinkers as effectively as do more scientifically oriented trials, without needing to adhere to screening and stringent research procedures. Nevertheless, BAI was more effective for at-risk drinkers who were invited for trial participation versus those who volunteered. This could be due to behavior that is already consolidated and is difficult to change. Lacking further modifications, real-world implementations of BAI for young men may be less effective than randomized controlled trials designed to test the efficacy of BAI.

Partial correlation : Network analysis

The final year project came to us as an opportunity to get involved in a topic which has appeared to be attractive during the learning process of majoring in economics: statistics and its application to the analysis of economic data, i.e. econometrics.Moreover, the combination of econometrics and computer science is a very hot topic nowadays, given the Information Technologies boom in the last decades and the consequent exponential increase in the amount of data collected and stored day by day. Data analysts able to deal with Big Data and to find useful results from it are verydemanded in these days and, according to our understanding, the work they do, although sometimes controversial in terms of ethics, is a clear source of value added both for private corporations and the public sector. For these reasons, the essence of this project is the study of a statistical instrument valid for the analysis of large datasets which is directly related to computer science: Partial Correlation Networks.The structure of the project has been determined by our objectives through the development of it. At first, the characteristics of the studied instrument are explained, from the basic ideas up to the features of the model behind it, with the final goal of presenting SPACE model as a tool for estimating interconnections in between elements in large data sets. Afterwards, an illustrated simulation is performed in order to show the power and efficiency of the model presented. And at last, the model is put into practice by analyzing a relatively large data set of real world data, with the objective of assessing whether the proposed statistical instrument is valid and useful when applied to a real multivariate time series. In short, our main goals are to present the model and evaluate if Partial Correlation Network Analysis is an effective, useful instrument and allows finding valuable results from Big Data.As a result, the findings all along this project suggest the Partial Correlation Estimation by Joint Sparse Regression Models approach presented by Peng et al. (2009) to work well under the assumption of sparsity of data. Moreover, partial correlation networks are shown to be a very valid tool to represent cross-sectional interconnections in between elements in large data sets.The scope of this project is however limited, as there are some sections in which deeper analysis would have been appropriate. Considering intertemporal connections in between elements, the choice of the tuning parameter lambda, or a deeper analysis of the results in the real data application are examples of aspects in which this project could be completed.To sum up, the analyzed statistical tool has been proved to be a very useful instrument to find relationships that connect the elements present in a large data set. And after all, partial correlation networks allow the owner of this set to observe and analyze the existing linkages that could have been omitted otherwise.

A Multi-Project Scheduling Procedure for Transportation Projects, Final Report, HR-339, 1993

This report proposes, that for certain types of highway construction projects undertaken by the Iowa Department of Transportation, a scheduling technique commonly referred to as linear scheduling may be more effective than the Critical Path Method scheduling technique that is currently being used. The types of projects that appear to be good candidates for the technique are those projects that have a strong linear orientation. Like a bar chart, this technique shows when an activity is scheduled to occur and like a CPM schedule it shows the sequence in which activities are expected to occur. During the 1992 construction season, the authors worked with an inlay project on Interstate 29 to demonstrate the linear scheduling technique to the Construction Office. The as-planned schedule was developed from the CPM schedule that the contractor had developed for the project. Therefore, this schedule represents what a linear representation of a CPM schedule would look like, and not necessarily what a true linear schedule would look like if it had been the only scheduling technique applied to the project. There is a need to expand the current repertoire of scheduling techniques to address those projects for which the bar chart and CPM may not be appropriate either because of the lack of control information or due to overly complex process for the actual project characteristics. The scheduling approaches used today on transportation projects have many shortcomings for properly modeling the real world constraints and conditions which are encountered. Linear project's predilection for activities with variable production rates, a concept very difficult to handle with the CPM, is easily handled and visualized with the linear technique. It is recommended that work proceed with the refinement of the method of linear scheduling described above and the development of a microcomputer based system for use by the Iowa Department of Transportation and contractors for its implementation. The system will be designed to provide the information needed to adjust schedules in a rational understandable method for monitoring progress on the projects and alerting Iowa Department of Transportation personnel when the contractor is deviating from the plan.