Wireless e-Business Applications - Methods for Forecasting the Demand of Wireless Services and Technologies

Tämä tutkimus oli osa sähköistä liiketoimintaa ja langattomia sovelluksia tutkivaa projektia ja tutkimuksen tavoitteena oli selvittää ennustamisen rooli päätöksenteko- ja suunnitteluprosessissa ja määrittää parhaiten soveltuvat ja useimmin käytetyt teknologian ennustusmenetelmät. Ennustusmenetelmiä tarkasteltiin erityisesti uuden teknologian ja pitkän aikavälin ennustamisen näkökulmasta. Tutkimus perustui teknologista ennustamista, pitkän aikavälin suunnittelua ja innovaatioprosesseja käsittelevän kirjallisuuden analysointiin. Materiaalin perusteella kuvataan teknologian ennustamista informaation hankkimisvälineenä organisaatioiden suunnitteluprosessin apuna. Työssä arvioidaan myös seuraavat teknologisen ennustamisen menetelmät: trendianalyysi-, Delfoi-, cross-impact analyysi-, morfologinen analyysi- ja skenaario analyysimenetelmä. Työ tuo esille jokaisen ennustusmenetelmä ominaispiirteet, rajoitukset ja sovellusmahdollisuudet. Käyttäen esiteltyjä menetelmiä, saadaan kerättyä hyödyllistä informaatiota tulevaisuuden näkymistä, joita sitten voidaan käyttää hyväksi organisaatioiden suunnitteluprosesseissa.

Web user interface architecture for advanced planning and scheduling systems Case: Nokia Demand / Supply Planning Applications

In modem hitec industry Advanced Planning and Scheduling (APS) systems provide the basis for e-business solutions towards the suppliers and the customers. One objective of this thesis was to clarify the modem supply chain management with the APS systems and especially concentrate on the area of Collaborative Planning. In order Advanced Planning and Scheduling systems to be complete and usable, user interfaces are needed. Current Visual Basic user interfaces have faced many complaints and arguments from the users as well as from the development team. This thesis is trying to analyze the reasons and causes for the encountered problems and also provide ways to overcome them. The decision has been made to build the new user interfaces to be Web-enabled. Therefore another objective of this thesis was to research and find suitable technologies for building the Web-based user interfaces for Advanced Planning and Scheduling Systems in Nokia Demand/Supply Planning business area. Comparison between the most suitable technologies is made. Usability issues of Web-enabled user interfaces are also covered. The empirical part of the thesis includes design and implementation of a Web-based user interface with the chosen technology for a particular APS module that enables Collaborative Planning with suppliers.

Forecasting tourism demand using consumer expectations

Abstract Purpose- There is a lack of studies on tourism demand forecasting that use non-linear models. The aim of this paper is to introduce consumer expectations in time-series models in order to analyse their usefulness to forecast tourism demand. Design/methodology/approach- The paper focuses on forecasting tourism demand in Catalonia for the four main visitor markets (France, the UK, Germany and Italy) combining qualitative information with quantitative models: autoregressive (AR), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), self-exciting threshold autoregressions (SETAR) and Markov switching regime (MKTAR) models. The forecasting performance of the different models is evaluated for different time horizons (one, two, three, six and 12 months). Findings- Although some differences are found between the results obtained for the different countries, when comparing the forecasting accuracy of the different techniques, ARIMA and Markov switching regime models outperform the rest of the models. In all cases, forecasts of arrivals show lower root mean square errors (RMSE) than forecasts of overnight stays. It is found that models with consumer expectations do not outperform benchmark models. These results are extensive to all time horizons analysed. Research limitations/implications- This study encourages the use of qualitative information and more advanced econometric techniques in order to improve tourism demand forecasting. Originality/value- This is the first study on tourism demand focusing specifically on Catalonia. To date, there have been no studies on tourism demand forecasting that use non-linear models such as self-exciting threshold autoregressions (SETAR) and Markov switching regime (MKTAR) models. This paper fills this gap and analyses forecasting performance at a regional level. Keywords Tourism, Forecasting, Consumers, Spain, Demand management Paper type Research paper

Demand-based structural change and balanced economic growth

[eng] We analyze the equilibrium of a multi-sector exogenous growth model where the introduction of minimum consumption requirements drives structural change. We show that equilibrium dynamics simultaneously exhibt structural change and balanced growth of aggregate variables as is observed in US when the initial intensity of minimum consumption requirements is sufficiently small. This intensity is measured by the ratio between the aggregate value of the minimum consumption requirements and GDP and, therefore, it is inversely related with the level of economic development. Initially rich economies benefit from an initially low intensity of the minimum consumption requirements and, as a consequence, these economies end up exhibiting balanced growth of aggregate variables, while there is structural change. In contrast, initially poor economies suffer from an initially large intensity of the minimum consumption requirements, which makes the growth of the aggregate variables unbalanced during a very large period. These economies may never exhibit simultaneously balanced growth of aggregate variables and structural change.

Market Potential and Demand Drivers for a Special Laminating Paper: Implementation of Market Research

Tutkimuksen tavoitteena oli selvittää raaka-aineena käytettävän paloa hidastavan laminaattipaperin markkinapotentiaali sekä kysyntä Euroopassa. Näiden kehitystä arvioitiin analysoimalla kysyntään vaikuttavia tekijöitä. Tutkimusmetodologiassa yhdistyivät useat lähestymistavat, pääasiassa käytettiin kuvailevaa ja ennustavaa tutkimusotetta. Tutkimus perustui sekä primaari että sekundaaritietoon. Primaaritietoa hankittiin tuotteen käyttäjiltä, myyntiedustajilta sekä haastattelemalla tuottajayrityksen henkilökuntaa. Sekundaaritietoa kerättiin myös, mutta tutkimuksen tavoitteisiin liittyviä lähteitä ei ollut runsaasti saatavilla. Tästä syystä primaaritiedolla oli tutkimuksessa hieman tärkeämpi rooli kuin sekundaaritiedolla, mikä on yleistä teollisessa markkinatutkimuksessa. Tuotteen tulevaisuuden näkymät vaikuttavat melko hyviltä. Teoreettinen markkinapotentiaali on suuri verrattuna nykyiseen myyntimäärään, myyntimäärän kasvattaminen vaatii kuitenkin tiettyjä toimenpiteitä. Tulevaisuudessa huomiota tulisi kiinnittää tuotekuvaan, hinnoitteluun ja laadun kokonaisvaltaiseen maksimointiin. Tutkimuksessa havaittiin suuntauksia kysynnän kasvusta tulevien parin vuoden aikana. Myös teoreettinen markkinapotentiaali voisi kasvaa, koska paloa hidastavien laminaattien kysyntä vaikuttaa kasvavan Euroopassa erityisesti rakennusalalla.

Nutrient signature of Quebec (Canada) cranberry (Vaccinium macrocarpon Ait.)

Fertilizer recommendations for cranberry crops are guided by plant and soil tests. However, critical tissue concentration ranges used for diagnostic purposes are inherently biased by nutrient interactions and physiological age. Compositional data analysis using isometric log ratios (ilr) of nutrients as well as time detrending can avoid numerical biases. The objective was to derive unbiased nutrient signature standards for cranberry in Quebec and compare those standards to literature data. Field trials were conducted during 3 consecutive years with varying P treatments at six commercial sites in Quebec. Leaf tissues were analyzed for N, P, K, Ca, Mg, B, Cu, Zn, Mn and Fe. The analytical results were transformed into ilr nutrient balances of parts and groups of parts. High-yield reference ilr values were computed for cranberry yielding greater than 35 Mg ha-1. Many cranberry fields appeared to be over-supplied with K and either under-supplied with Mn or over-supplied with Fe as shown by their imbalanced [K | Ca, Mg] and [Mn | Fe] ratios. Nutrient concentration ranges from Maine and Wisconsin, USA, were combined into ilr values to generate ranges of balances. It was found that these nutrient ranges were much too broad for application in Quebec or outside the Quebec ranges for the [Ca | Mg] and the [Mn | Fe] balances, that were lower compared to those of high yielding cranberry crops in Quebec.

Demand-based structural change and balanced economic growth

[eng] We analyze the equilibrium of a multi-sector exogenous growth model where the introduction of minimum consumption requirements drives structural change. We show that equilibrium dynamics simultaneously exhibt structural change and balanced growth of aggregate variables as is observed in US when the initial intensity of minimum consumption requirements is sufficiently small. This intensity is measured by the ratio between the aggregate value of the minimum consumption requirements and GDP and, therefore, it is inversely related with the level of economic development. Initially rich economies benefit from an initially low intensity of the minimum consumption requirements and, as a consequence, these economies end up exhibiting balanced growth of aggregate variables, while there is structural change. In contrast, initially poor economies suffer from an initially large intensity of the minimum consumption requirements, which makes the growth of the aggregate variables unbalanced during a very large period. These economies may never exhibit simultaneously balanced growth of aggregate variables and structural change.

Characterization of nutrient deficiency in Hancornia speciosa Gomes seedlings by omitting micronutrients from the nutrient solution

Hancornia speciosa Gomes (Mangaba tree) is a fruit tree belonging to the Apocynaceae family and is native to Brazil. The production of seedlings of this species is limited by a lack of technical and nutritional expertise. To address this deficiency, this study aimed to characterize the visual symptoms of micronutrient deficiency and to assess growth and leaf nutrient accumulation in H. speciosa seedlings supplied with nutrient solutions that lack individual micronutrients. H. speciosa plants were grown in nutrient solution in a greenhouse according to a randomized block design, with four replicates. The treatments consisted of a group receiving complete nutrient solution and groups treated with a nutrient solution lacking one of the following micronutrients: boron (B), copper (Cu), iron (Fe), manganese (Mn), zinc (Zn), and molybdenum (Mo). The visual symptoms of nutrient deficiency were generally easy to characterize. Dry matter production was affected by the omission of micronutrients, and the treatment lacking Fe most limited the stem length, stem diameter, root length, and number of leaves in H. speciosa seedlings as well as the dry weight of leaves, the total dry weight, and the relative growth in H. speciosa plants. The micronutrient contents of H. speciosa leaves from plants receiving the complete nutrient solution treatment were, in decreasing order, Fe>Mn>Cu>Zn>B.

Newsprint Demand and Supply Scenarios

Diplomityön tavoitteena oli sanomalehtipaperin kysyntään ja tarjontaan vaikuttavien tekijöiden identifiointi ja analysointi. Nämä tekijät käytiin yhteisesti läpi skenaarioiden avulla. Aluksi kuvattiin teollisuuden ala ja esiteltiin tärkeimmät alaa kuvaavat mittarit. Analyysi tehtiin Porterin kilpailuteorian tekijöiden pohjalta. Työssä listattiin yksittäiset tekijät, jotka vaikuttavat sanomalehtipaperin kysyntään ja tarjontaan. Näistä tekijöistä valittiin tärkeimmät ja niiden pohjalta rakennettiin skenaarioita. Skenaariot kuvaavat erilaisia mahdollisia tulevaisuuksia.Kysyntä kuten myös tarjonta on jakautunut epätasaisesti maailmassa. Alueelliset erot ovat hyvinkin merkittäviä. Tästä johtuu laajamittainen kaupankäynti eri alueiden välillä. Käynnissä oleva paperiteollisuuden konsolidoitumisprosessi auttaa vähentämään sanomalehtipaperin hinnan ja tarjonnan heilahtelua. Tämä puolestaan johtuu alan keskittymisestä ja järkevästä kapasiteetin hallinnasta.Diplomityö korostaa sanomalehtipaperin tuottajien vastuuta tarjonnan lisäämisessä. E-median uhkaa tai mahdollisuutta on myös spekuloitu ja kysynnän alueellisen kysynnän kehitystä on analysoitu. Diplomityö antaa ehdotuksia erilaisiksi tulevaisuuden kehitysvaihtoehdoiksi. Sanomalehtipaperin kysyntä tulee kasvamaan maailmanlaajuisesti, tuotanto tulee siirtymään lähemmäksi markkinoita, kaupankäynti Aasiaan tulee kasvamaan ja yrityksen tulevat keskittymään viisaaseen kapasiteetin hallintaan.

Estimating the Price and Demand Development of Some Paperboard Grades

Työn tavoitteena oli luoda malli, jonka avulla voitaisiin ennustaa kartonkituotteiden hinnan ja kysynnän kehitystä. Työssä kerättiin aluksi tietoa kartonkimarkkinoista haastattelujen ja tilastotietojen avulla. Näiden perusteella luotiin malli, joka kuvaa kartonkimarkkinoiden ja -teollisuuden rakennetta. Erityisesti kiinnitettiin huomiota asiakkaiden tilauskäyttäytymiseen, tuotannonohjaukseen sekä hinnan muodostumiseen. Työssä käytettiin ennustemenetelmänä systeemidynamiikkaa. Oleellista oli löytää systeemissä esiintyvät tärkeimmät takaisinkytkennät ja systeemin avainmuuttujat. Kun kaikille mallin muuttujille oli määritetty yhtälöt ja vakioille annettu arvot, voitiin mallia simuloida, ja saada ennusteet halutuille muuttujille. Työssä esitettiin ennusteet kartonkimarkkinoiden tärkeimmille parametreille kahden vuoden päähän. Työssä tarkasteltiin myös, miten muutokset mallin käyttäytymistä säätelevissä muuttujissa vaikuttavat tuloksiin. Jotta pystyttäisiin paremmin selvittämään koko kartonkiteollisuuden dynamiikka, lisätutkimusta tarvittaisiin vielä eri kartonkilajien substituutiomahdollisuuksista ja hintojen riippuvuuksista. Mielenkiintoista olisi myös tietää, miten tuotannon käyttöasteiden muutokset ja hinnan vaihtelut vaikuttavat liiketoiminnan kannattavuuteen valmistajien näkökulmasta.

Postnatal β-cell maturation is associated with islet-specific microRNA changes induced by nutrient shifts at weaning.

Glucose-induced insulin secretion is an essential function of pancreatic β-cells that is partially lost in individuals affected by Type 2 diabetes. This unique property of β-cells is acquired through a poorly understood postnatal maturation process involving major modifications in gene expression programs. Here we show that β-cell maturation is associated with changes in microRNA expression induced by the nutritional transition that occurs at weaning. When mimicked in newborn islet cells, modifications in the level of specific microRNAs result in a switch in the expression of metabolic enzymes and cause the acquisition of glucose-induced insulin release. Our data suggest microRNAs have a central role in postnatal β-cell maturation and in the determination of adult functional β-cell mass. A better understanding of the events governing β-cell maturation may help understand why some individuals are predisposed to developing diabetes and could lead to new strategies for the treatment of this common metabolic disease.

Classification and inventory management of abnormal demand items

The main objective of the study is to form a framework that provides tools to recognise and classify items whose demand is not smooth but varies highly on size and/or frequency. The framework will then be combined with two other classification methods in order to form a three-dimensional classification model. Forecasting and inventory control of these abnormal demand items is difficult. Therefore another object of this study is to find out which statistical forecasting method is most suitable for forecasting of abnormal demand items. The accuracy of different methods is measured by comparing the forecast to the actual demand. Moreover, the study also aims at finding proper alternatives to the inventory control of abnormal demand items. The study is quantitative and the methodology is a case study. The research methods consist of theory, numerical data, current state analysis and testing of the framework in case company. The results of the study show that the framework makes it possible to recognise and classify the abnormal demand items. It is also noticed that the inventory performance of abnormal demand items differs significantly from the performance of smoothly demanded items. This makes the recognition of abnormal demand items very important.

Maintenance and development of supplier relationships in an environment of irregular demand

The main target of the study was to find ideas for maintenance and development of supplier relations in irregular business environment. The other aim was to find out the suppliers’ opinions concerning the case company and the relationship between the companies. The study was conducted by using both qualitative and quantitative research methods. A mail survey was used to find out supplier opinions and an interview to find out suppliers’ ideas for relationship maintenance and development. It was found out that the use of relational elements is essential in the relationship maintenance in an irregular environment. In development of supplier relations the company should make better use of its suppliers’ potential, assure better flow of information and utilize the possibilities of Supplier Relationship Management.

Nutrient enrichment and water depth modify consumer control in rocky shore macroalgal communities

The objective of my thesis is to assess mechanisms of ecological community control in macroalgal communities in the Baltic Sea. In the top-down model, predatory fish feed on invertebrate mesograzers, releasing algae partly from grazing pressure. Such a reciprocal relationship is called trophic cascade. In the bottom-up model, nutrients increase biomass in the food chain. The nutrients are first assimilated by algae and, via food chain, increase also abundance of grazers and predators. Previous studies on oceanic shores have described these two regulative mechanisms in the grazer - alga link, but how they interact in the trophic cascades from fish to algae is still inadequately known. Because the top-down and bottom-up mechanisms are predicted to depend on environmental disturbances, such as wave stress and light, I have studied these models at two distinct water depths. There are five factorial field experiments behind the thesis, which were all conducted in the Finnish Archipelago Sea. In all the experiments, I studied macroalgal colonization - either density, filament length or biomass - on submerged colonization substrates. By excluding predatory fish and mesograzers from the algal communities, the studies compared the strength of the top-down control to natural algal communities. A part of the experimental units were, in addition, exposed to enriched nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations, which enabled testing of bottom-up control. These two models of community control were further investigated in shallow (<1 m) and deep (ca. 3 m) water. Moreover, the control mechanisms were also expected to depend on grazer species. Therefore different grazer species were enclosed into experimental units and their impacts on macroalgal communities were followed specifically. The community control in the Baltic rocky shores was found to follow theoretical predictions, which have not been confirmed by field studies before. Predatory fish limited grazing impact, which was seen as denser algal communities and longer algal filaments. Nutrient enrichment increased density and filament length of annual algae and, thus, changed the species composition of the algal community. The perennial alga Fucus vesiculosusA and the red alga Ceramium tenuicorne suffered from the increased nutrient availabilities. The enriched nutrient conditions led to denser grazer fauna, thereby causing strong top-down control over both the annual and perennial macroalgae. The strength of the top-down control seemed to depend on the density and diversity of grazers and predators as well as on the species composition of macroalgal assemblages. The nutrient enrichment led to, however, weaker limiting impact of predatory fish on grazer fauna, because fish stocks did not respond as quickly to enhanced resources in the environment as the invertebrate fauna. According to environmental stress model, environmental disturbances weaken the top-down control. For example, on a wave-exposed shore, wave stress causes more stress to animals close to the surface than deeper on the shore. Mesograzers were efficient consumers at both the depths, while predation by fish was weaker in shallow water. Thus, the results supported the environmental stress model, which predicts that environmental disturbance affects stronger the higher a species is in the food chain. This thesis assessed the mechanisms of community control in three-level food chains and did not take into account higher predators. Such predators in the Baltic Sea are, for example, cormorant, seals, white-tailed sea eagle, cod and salmon. All these predatory species were recently or are currently under intensive fishing, hunting and persecution, and their stocks have only recently increased in the region. Therefore, it is possible that future densities of top predators may yet alter the strengths of the controlling mechanisms in the Baltic littoral zone.

Effects of unit - based pricing on the waste collection demand : a meta - regression analysis

We perform a meta - analysis of 21 studies that estimate the elasticity of the price of waste collection demand upon waste quantities, a prior literature review having revealed that the price elasticity differs markedly. Based on a meta - regression with a total of 65 observations, we find no indication that municipal data give higher estimates for price elasticities than those associated with household data. Furthermore, there is no evidence that treating prices as exogenous underestimates the price elasticity. We find that much of the variation can be explained by sample size, the use of a weight - based as opposed to a volume - based pricing system, and the pricing of compostable waste. We also show that price elasticities determined in the USA and point estimations of elasticities are more elastic, but these effects are not robust to the changing of model specifications. Finally, our tests show that there is no evidence of publication bias while there is some evidence of the existence of genuine empirical effect.