General Equilibrium Long-Run Determinants for Spanish FDI: A Spatial Panel Data Approach

While general equilibrium theories of trade stress the role of third-country effects, little work has been done in the empirical foreign direct investment (FDI) literature to test such spatial linkages. This paper aims to provide further insights into long-run determinants of Spanish FDI by considering not only bilateral but also spatially weighted third-country determinants. The few studies carried out so far have focused on FDI flows in a limited number of countries. However, Spanish FDI outflows have risen dramatically since 1995 and today account for a substantial part of global FDI. Therefore, we estimate recently developed Spatial Panel Data models by Maximum Likelihood (ML) procedures for Spanish outflows (1993-2004) to top-50 host countries. After controlling for unobservable effects, we find that spatial interdependence matters and provide evidence consistent with New Economic Geography (NEG) theories of agglomeration, mainly due to complex (vertical) FDI motivations. Spatial Error Models estimations also provide illuminating results regarding the transmission mechanism of shocks.

Statistical Methods for Conservation and Alignment Quality in Proteins

Construction of multiple sequence alignments is a fundamental task in Bioinformatics. Multiple sequence alignments are used as a prerequisite in many Bioinformatics methods, and subsequently the quality of such methods can be critically dependent on the quality of the alignment. However, automatic construction of a multiple sequence alignment for a set of remotely related sequences does not always provide biologically relevant alignments.Therefore, there is a need for an objective approach for evaluating the quality of automatically aligned sequences. The profile hidden Markov model is a powerful approach in comparative genomics. In the profile hidden Markov model, the symbol probabilities are estimated at each conserved alignment position. This can increase the dimension of parameter space and cause an overfitting problem. These two research problems are both related to conservation. We have developed statistical measures for quantifying the conservation of multiple sequence alignments. Two types of methods are considered, those identifying conserved residues in an alignment position, and those calculating positional conservation scores. The positional conservation score was exploited in a statistical prediction model for assessing the quality of multiple sequence alignments. The residue conservation score was used as part of the emission probability estimation method proposed for profile hidden Markov models. The results of the predicted alignment quality score highly correlated with the correct alignment quality scores, indicating that our method is reliable for assessing the quality of any multiple sequence alignment. The comparison of the emission probability estimation method with the maximum likelihood method showed that the number of estimated parameters in the model was dramatically decreased, while the same level of accuracy was maintained. To conclude, we have shown that conservation can be successfully used in the statistical model for alignment quality assessment and in the estimation of emission probabilities in the profile hidden Markov models.

Vasicek interest rate model

Tässä tutkielmassa estimoidaan korkomallin parametrit Maximum likelihood metodilla sekä näytetään kuinka mallintaa lyhyen koron evoluutiota ja korkokäyrän rakennetta.

A Method for Sky-Condition Classification from Ground-Based Solar Radiation Measurements

Identification of clouds from satellite images is now a routine task. Observation of clouds from the ground, however, is still needed to acquire a complete description of cloud conditions. Among the standard meteorologicalvariables, solar radiation is the most affected by cloud cover. In this note, a method for using global and diffuse solar radiation data to classify sky conditions into several classes is suggested. A classical maximum-likelihood method is applied for clustering data. The method is applied to a series of four years of solar radiation data and human cloud observations at a site in Catalonia, Spain. With these data, the accuracy of the solar radiation method as compared with human observations is 45% when nine classes of sky conditions are to be distinguished, and it grows significantly to almost 60% when samples are classified in only five different classes. Most errors are explained by limitations in the database; therefore, further work is under way with a more suitable database

Polarimetric 3D integral imaging in photon-starved conditions

We develop a method for obtaining 3D polarimetric integral images from elemental images recorded in low light illumination conditions. Since photon-counting images are very sparse, calculation of the Stokes parameters and the degree of polarization should be handled carefully. In our approach, polarimetric 3D integral images are generated using the Maximum Likelihood Estimation and subsequently reconstructed by means of a Total Variation Denoising filter. In this way, polarimetric results are comparable to those obtained in conventional illumination conditions. We also show that polarimetric information retrieved from photon starved images can be used in 3D object recognition problems. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first report on 3D polarimetric photon counting integral imaging.

Space–Time Block Codes and the Complexity of Sphere Decoding

In wireless communications the transmitted signals may be affected by noise. The receiver must decode the received message, which can be mathematically modelled as a search for the closest lattice point to a given vector. This problem is known to be NP-hard in general, but for communications applications there exist algorithms that, for a certain range of system parameters, offer polynomial expected complexity. The purpose of the thesis is to study the sphere decoding algorithm introduced in the article On Maximum-Likelihood Detection and the Search for the Closest Lattice Point, which was published by M.O. Damen, H. El Gamal and G. Caire in 2003. We concentrate especially on its computational complexity when used in space–time coding. Computer simulations are used to study how different system parameters affect the computational complexity of the algorithm. The aim is to find ways to improve the algorithm from the complexity point of view. The main contribution of the thesis is the construction of two new modifications to the sphere decoding algorithm, which are shown to perform faster than the original algorithm within a range of system parameters.

Phylogenetic analysis of Tomato mosaic virus from Hemerocallis sp. and Impatiens hawkeri

The culture and commercialization of ornamental plants have considerably increased in the last years. To supply the commercial demand, several Hemerocallis and Impatiens varieties have been bred for appreciated qualities such as flowers with a diversity of shapes and colors. With the aim of characterizing the tobamovirus isolated from Hemerocallis sp. (tobamo-H) and Impatiens hawkeri (tobamo-I) from the USA and São Paulo, respectively, as well as to establish phylogenetic relationships between them and other Tobamovirus species, the viruses were submitted to RNA extraction, RT-PCR amplification, coat-protein gene sequencing and phylogenetic analyses. Comparison of tobamovirus homologous sequences yielded values superior to 98.5% of identity with Tomato mosaic virus (ToMV) isolates at the nucleotide level. In relation to tobamo-H, 100% of identity with ToMV from tomatoes from Australia and Peru was found. Based on maximum likelihood (ML) analysis it was suggested that tobamo-H and tobamo-I share a common ancestor with ToMV, Tobacco mosaic virus, Odontoglossum ringspot virus and Pepper mild mottle virus. The tree topology reconstructed under ML methodology shows a monophyletic group, supported by 100% of bootstrap, consisting of various ToMV isolates from different hosts, including some ornamentals, from different geographical locations. The results indicate that Hemerocallis sp. and I. hawkeri are infected by ToMV. This is the first report of the occurrence of this virus in ornamental species in Brazil.

Using aster multispectral imagery for mapping woody invasive species in pico da vara natural reserve (Azores Islands, Portugal)

This paper aims to assess the effectiveness of ASTER imagery to support the mapping of Pittosporum undulatum, an invasive woody species, in Pico da Vara Natural Reserve (S. Miguel Island, Archipelago of the Azores, Portugal). This assessment was done by applying K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN), Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Maximum Likelihood (MLC) pixel-based supervised classifications to 4 different geographic and remote sensing datasets constituted by the Visible, Near-Infrared (VNIR) and Short Wave Infrared (SWIR) of the ASTER sensor and by digital cartography associated to orography (altitude and "distance to water streams") of which the spatial distribution of Pittosporum undulatum directly depends. Overall, most performed classifications showed a strong agreement and high accuracy. At targeted species level, the two higher classification accuracies were obtained when applying MLC and KNN to the VNIR bands coupled with auxiliary geographic information use. Results improved significantly by including ecology and occurrence information of species (altitude and distance to water streams) in the classification scheme. These results show that the use of ASTER sensor VNIR spectral bands, when coupled to relevant ancillary GIS data, can constitute an effective and low cost approach for the evaluation and continuous assessment of Pittosporum undulatum woodland propagation and distribution within Protected Areas of the Azores Islands.

Comparison of maps of spatial variability of soil resistance to penetration constructed with and without covariables using a spatial linear model

A study about the spatial variability of data of soil resistance to penetration (RSP) was conducted at layers 0.0-0.1 m, 0.1-0.2 m and 0.2-0.3 m depth, using the statistical methods in univariate forms, i.e., using traditional geostatistics, forming thematic maps by ordinary kriging for each layer of the study. It was analyzed the RSP in layer 0.2-0.3 m depth through a spatial linear model (SLM), which considered the layers 0.0-0.1 m and 0.1-0.2 m in depth as covariable, obtaining an estimation model and a thematic map by universal kriging. The thematic maps of the RSP at layer 0.2-0.3 m depth, constructed by both methods, were compared using measures of accuracy obtained from the construction of the matrix of errors and confusion matrix. There are similarities between the thematic maps. All maps showed that the RSP is higher in the north region.

Probabilistic structure of an annual extreme rainfall series of a coastal area of the State of São Paulo, Brazil

This study aimed to describe the probabilistic structure of the annual series of extreme daily rainfall (Preabs), available from the weather station of Ubatuba, State of São Paulo, Brazil (1935-2009), by using the general distribution of extreme value (GEV). The autocorrelation function, the Mann-Kendall test, and the wavelet analysis were used in order to evaluate the presence of serial correlations, trends, and periodical components. Considering the results obtained using these three statistical methods, it was possible to assume the hypothesis that this temporal series is free from persistence, trends, and periodicals components. Based on quantitative and qualitative adhesion tests, it was found that the GEV may be used in order to quantify the probabilities of the Preabs data. The best results of GEV were obtained when the parameters of this function were estimated using the method of maximum likelihood. The method of L-moments has also shown satisfactory results.

Spatial variability of air dry bulb temperature and black globe humidity index in a broiler house during the heating phase

The air dry-bulb temperature (t db),as well as the black globe humidity index (BGHI), exert great influence on the development of broiler chickens during their heating phase. Therefore, the aim of this study was to analyze the structure and the magnitude of the t db and BGHI spatial variability, using geostatistics tools such as semivariogram analysis and also producing kriging maps. The experiment was conducted in the west mesoregion of the states of Minas Gerais in 2010, in a commercial broiler house with heating system consisting of two furnaces that heat the air indirectly, in the firsts 14 days of the birds' life. The data were registered at intervals of five minutes in the period from 8 a.m. to 10 a.m. The variables were evaluated by variograms fitted by residual maximum likelihood (REML) testing the Spherical and Exponential models. Kriging maps were generated based on the best model used to fit the variogram. It was possible to characterize the variability of the t db and BGHI, which allowed observing the spatial dependence by using geostatistics techniques. In addition, the use of geostatistics and distribution maps made possible to identify problems in the heating system in regions inside the broiler house that may harm the development of chicks.

Mapping of use and occupation of the soil and irrigation water quality in the city of Salto do Lontra-Paraná, Brazil

The objective of this study consisted on mapping the use and soil occupation and evaluation of the quality of irrigation water used in Salto do Lontra, in the state of Paraná, Brazil. Images of the satellite SPOT-5 were used to perform the supervised classification of the Maximum Likelihood algorithm - MAXVER, and the water quality parameters analyzed were pH, EC, HCO3-, Cl-, PO4(3-), NO3-, turbidity, temperature and thermotolerant coliforms in two distinct rainfall periods. The water quality data were subjected to statistical analysis by the techniques of PCA and FA, to identify the most relevant variables in assessing the quality of irrigation water. The characterization of soil use and occupation by the classifier MAXVER allowed the identification of the following classes: crops, bare soil/stubble, forests and urban area. The PCA technique applied to irrigation water quality data explained 53.27% of the variation in water quality among the sampled points. Nitrate, thermotolerant coliforms, temperature, electrical conductivity and bicarbonate were the parameters that best explained the spatial variation of water quality.

Geostatistics and remote sensing methods in the classification of images of areas cultivated with citrus

This study compares the precision of three image classification methods, two of remote sensing and one of geostatistics applied to areas cultivated with citrus. The 5,296.52ha area of study is located in the city of Araraquara - central region of the state of São Paulo (SP), Brazil. The multispectral image from the CCD/CBERS-2B satellite was acquired in 2009 and processed through the Geographic Information System (GIS) SPRING. Three classification methods were used, one unsupervised (Cluster), and two supervised (Indicator Kriging/IK and Maximum Likelihood/Maxver), in addition to the screen classification taken as field checking.. Reliability of classifications was evaluated by Kappa index. In accordance with the Kappa index, the Indicator kriging method obtained the highest degree of reliability for bands 2 and 4. Moreover the Cluster method applied to band 2 (green) was the best quality classification between all the methods. Indicator Kriging was the classifier that presented the citrus total area closest to the field check estimated by -3.01%, whereas Maxver overestimated the total citrus area by 42.94%.

Climate trends in the municipality of Pelotas, state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil

ABSTRACTChanges in the frequency of occurrence of extreme weather events have been pointed out as a likely impact of global warming. In this context, this study aimed to detect climate change in series of extreme minimum and maximum air temperature of Pelotas, State of Rio Grande do Sul, (1896 - 2011) and its influence on the probability of occurrence of these variables. We used the general extreme value distribution (GEV) in its stationary and non-stationary forms. In the latter case, GEV parameters are variable over time. On the basis of goodness-of-fit tests and of the maximum likelihood method, the GEV model in which the location parameter increases over time presents the best fit of the daily minimum air temperature series. Such result describes a significant increase in the mean values of this variable, which indicates a potential reduction in the frequency of frosts. The daily maximum air temperature series is also described by a non-stationary model, whose location parameter decreases over time, and the scale parameter related to sample variance rises between the beginning and end of the series. This result indicates a drop in the mean of daily maximum air temperature values and increased dispersion of the sample data.

Holstein white coat color and performance: phenotypic, genetic and environmental correlations

Correlations of measures of percentages of white coat color, five measures of production and two measures of reproduction were obtained from 4293 first lactation Holsteins from eight Florida dairy farms. Percentages of white coat color were analyzed as recorded and transformed by an extension of Box-Cox procedures. Statistical analyses were by derivative-free restricted maximum likelihood (DFREML) with an animal model. Phenotypic and genetic correlations of white percentage (not transformed) were with milk yield, 0.047 and 0.097; fat yield, 0.002 and 0.004; fat percentage, -0.047 and -0.090; protein yield, 0.024 and 0.048; protein percentage, -0.070 and -0.116; days open, -0.012 and -0.065; and calving interval, -0.007 and -0.029. Changes in magnitude of correlations were very small for all variables except days open. Genetic and phenotypic correlations of transformed values with days open were -0.027 and -0.140. Modest positive correlated responses would be expected for white coat color percentage following direct selection for milk, fat, and protein yields, but selection for fat and protein percentages, days open, or calving interval would lead to small decreases.