Forecasting crashes at the planning level: Simultaneous negative binomial crash model applied in Tucson, Arizona

At least two important transportation planning activities rely on planning-level crash prediction models. One is motivated by the Transportation Equity Act for the 21st Century, which requires departments of transportation and metropolitan planning organizations to consider safety explicitly in the transportation planning process. The second could arise from a need for state agencies to establish incentive programs to reduce injuries and save lives. Both applications require a forecast of safety for a future period. Planning-level crash prediction models for the Tucson, Arizona, metropolitan region are presented to demonstrate the feasibility of such models. Data were separated into fatal, injury, and property-damage crashes. To accommodate overdispersion in the data, negative binomial regression models were applied. To accommodate the simultaneity of fatality and injury crash outcomes, simultaneous estimation of the models was conducted. All models produce crash forecasts at the traffic analysis zone level. Statistically significant (p-values < 0.05) and theoretically meaningful variables for the fatal crash model included population density, persons 17 years old or younger as a percentage of the total population, and intersection density. Significant variables for the injury and property-damage crash models were population density, number of employees, intersections density, percentage of miles of principal arterial, percentage of miles of minor arterials, and percentage of miles of urban collectors. Among several conclusions it is suggested that planning-level safety models are feasible and may play a role in future planning activities. However, caution must be exercised with such models.

Cultural determinants of stress in the construction industry

The need to better understand and deal with workplace stress has major implications for the construction industry, especially on a project level, because of its potential to directly impact on site productivity and safety, and ultimately, the achievement of project objectives. While there has been some understanding of the effect of workplace stress within the construction industry, the majority of these studies have explored individual determinants of workplace stress among construction professionals such as architects, engineers, quantity surveyors etc. To date, very little research has focused on workplace stress as encountered by construction site operatives. This is an important research deficiency as construction site operatives typically make up a significant percentage of on-site workforce and contribute most directly to project success. To address this imbalance in research, this paper proposes a theoretical framework to better understand site operatives’ experience of stress from a cultural perspective on three levels: individual, project and organizational which has been largely neglected in previous studies.

Subjective blur limits for cylinder

Purpose: To compare subjective blur limits for cylinder and defocus. ---------- Method: Blur was induced with a deformable, adaptive-optics mirror when either the subjects’ own astigmatisms were corrected or when both astigmatisms and higher-order aberrations were corrected. Subjects were cyclopleged and had 5 mm artificial pupils. Black letter targets (0.1, 0.35 and 0.6 logMAR) were presented on white backgrounds. Results: For ten subjects, blur limits were approximately 50% greater for cylinder than for defocus (in diopters). While there were considerable effects of axis for individuals, overall this was not strong, with the 0° (or 180°) axis having about 20% greater limits than oblique axes. In a second experiment with text (equivalent in angle to N10 print at 40 cm distance), cylinder blur limits for 6 subjects were approximately 30% greater than those for defocus; this percentage was slightly smaller than for the three letters. Blur limits of the text were intermediate between those of 0.35 logMAR and 0.6 logMAR letters. Extensive blur limit measurements for one subject with single letters did not show expected interactions between target detail orientation and cylinder axis. ---------- Conclusion: Subjective blur limits for cylinder are 30%-50% greater than those for defocus, with the overall influence of cylinder axis being 20%.

Music is a Wordless Knowing of Others : Resilience in Virtual Ensembles

Music making affects relationships with self and others by generating a sense of belonging to a culture or ideology (Bamford, 2006; Barovick, 2001; Dillon & Stewart, 2006; Fiske, 2000; Hallam, 2001). Whilst studies from arts education research present compelling examples of these relationships, others argue that they do not present sufficiently validated evidence of a causal link between music making experiences and cognitive or social change (Winner & Cooper, 2000; Winner & Hetland, 2000a, 2000b, 2001). I have suggested elsewhere that this disconnection between compelling evidence and observations of the effects of music making are in part due to the lack of rigor in research and the incapacity of many methods to capture these experiences in meaningful ways (Dillon, 2006). Part of the answer to these questions about rigor and causality lay in the creative use of new media technologies that capture the results of relationships in music artefacts. Crucially, it is the effective management of these artefacts within computer systems that allows researchers and practitioners to collect, organize, analyse and then theorise such music making experiences.

EduBuilding: material selection from life cycle costing sensitivity

Life Cycle Cost Analysis provides a form of synopsis of the initial and consequential costs of building related decisions. These cost figures may be implemented to justify higher investments, for example, in the quality or flexibility of building solutions through a long term cost reduction. The emerging discipline of asset mnagement is a promising approach to this problem, because it can do things that techniques such as balanced scorecards and total quantity cannot. Decisions must be made about operating and maintaining infrastructure assets. An injudicious sensitivity of life cycle costing is that the longer something lasts, the less it costs over time. A life cycle cost analysis will be used as an economic evaluation tool and collaborate with various numbers of analyses. LCCA quantifies incurring costs commonly overlooked (by property and asset managers and designs) as replacement and maintenance costs. The purpose of this research is to examine the Life Cycle Cost Analysis on building floor materials. By implementing the life cycle cost analysis, the true cost of each material will be computed projecting 60 years as the building service life and 5.4% as the inflation rate percentage to classify and appreciate the different among the materials. The analysis results showed the high impact in selecting the floor materials according to the potential of service life cycle cost next.

Is the association between temperature and mortality modified by age, gender and socio-economic status?

Background: A number of studies have examined the relationship between high ambient temperature and mortality. Recently, concern has arisen about whether this relationship is modified by socio-demographic factors. However, data for this type of study is relatively scarce in subtropical/tropical regions where people are well accustomed to warm temperatures. Objective: To investigate whether the relationship between daily mean temperature and daily all-cause mortality is modified by age, gender and socio-economic status (SES) in Brisbane, Australia. Methods: We obtained daily mean temperature and all-cause mortality data for Brisbane, Australia during 1996–2004. A generalised additive model was fitted to assess the percentage increase in all deaths with every one degree increment above the threshold temperature. Different age, gender and SES groups were included in the model as categorical variables and their modification effects were estimated separately. Results: A total of 53,316 non-external deaths were included during the study period. There was a clear increasing trend in the harmful effect of high temperature on mortality with age. The effect estimate among women was more than 20 times that among men. We did not find an SES effect on the percent increase associated with temperature. Conclusions: The effects of high temperature on all deaths were modified by age and gender but not by SES in Brisbane, Australia.

Globalization, suburbanization, and the creative workforce : Findings from Australian suburban communities

This paper considers the changing relationship between economic prosperity and Australian suburbs, noting that what has been termed “the first suburban nation” in experiencing an intensification of suburban growth in the 2000s, in the context of economic globalization. The paper reports on a three-year Australian Research Council funded project into “Creative Suburbia”, identifying the significant percentage of the creative industries workforce who live in suburban areas. Drawing on case studies from suburbs in the Australian cities of Brisbane and Melbourne, it notes the contrasts between the experience of these workers, who are generally positive towards suburban life, and the underlying assumptions of “creative cities” policy discourse that such workers prefer to be concentrated in high density inner urban creative clusters.

In vivo performance of melimine as an antimicrobial coating for contact lenses in models of CLARE and CLPU

Purpose: One strategy to minimize bacteria-associated adverse responses such as microbial keratitis, contact lens–induced acute red eye (CLARE), and contact lens induced peripheral ulcers (CLPUs) that occur with contact lens wear is the development of an antimicrobial or antiadhesive contact lens. Cationic peptides represent a novel approach for the development of antimicrobial lenses.---------- Methods: A novel cationic peptide, melimine, was covalently incorporated into silicone hydrogel lenses. Confirmation tests to determine the presence of peptide and anti-microbial activity were performed. Cationic lenses were then tested for their ability to prevent CLPU in the Staphylococcus aureus rabbit model and CLARE in the Pseudomonas aeruginosa guinea pig model. ---------- Results: In the rabbit model of CLPU, melimine-coated lenses resulted in significant reductions in ocular symptom scores and in the extent of corneal infiltration (P < 0.05). Evaluation of the performance of melimine lenses in the CLARE model showed significant improvement in all ocular response parameters measured, including the percentage of eyes with corneal infiltrates, compared with those observed in the eyes fitted with the control lens (P ≤ 0.05). ---------- Conclusions: Cationic coating of contact lenses with the peptide melimine may represent a novel method of prevention of bacterial growth on contact lenses and consequently result in reduction of the incidence and severity of adverse responses due to Gram-positive and -negative bacteria during lens wear.

Is a mango just a mango? Testing within-fruit oviposition site choice and larval performance of a highly polyphagous fruit fly

For fruit flies, fully ripe fruit is preferred for adult oviposition and is superior for offspring performance over unripe or ripening fruit. Because not all parts of a single fruit ripen simultaneously, the opportunity exists for adult fruit flies to selectively choose riper parts of a fruit for oviposition and such selection, if it occurs, could positively influence offspring performance. Such fine scale host variation is rarely considered in fruit fly ecology, however, especially for polyphagous species which are, by definition, considered to be generalist host users. Here we study the adult oviposition preference/larval performance relationship of the Oriental fruit fly, Bactrocera dorsalis (Hendel) (Diptera: Tephritidae), a highly polyphagous pest species, at the “within-fruit” level to see if such a host use pattern occurs. We recorded the number of oviposition attempts that female flies made into three fruit portions (top, middle and bottom), and larval behavior and development within different fruit portions for ripening (color change) and fully-ripe mango, Mangifera indica L. (Anacardiaceae). Results indicate that female B. dorsalis do not oviposit uniformly across a mango fruit, but lay most often in the top (i.e., stalk end) of fruit and least in the bottom portion, regardless of ripening stage. There was no evidence of larval feeding site preference or performance (development time, pupal weight, percent pupation) being influenced by fruit portion, within or across the fruit ripening stages. There was, however, a very significant effect on adult emergence rate from pupae, with adult emergence rate from pupae from the bottom of ripening mango being approximately only 50% of the adult emergence rate from the top of ripening fruit, or from both the top and bottom of fully-ripe fruit. Differences in mechanical (firmness) and chemical (total soluble solids, titratable acidity, total non-structural carbohydrates) traits between different fruit portions were correlated with adult fruit utilisation. Our results support a positive adult preference/offspring performance relationship at within-fruit level for B. dorsalis. The fine level of host discrimination exhibited by B. dorsalis is at odds with the general perception that, as a polyphagous herbivore, the fly should show very little discrimination in its host use behavior.

Flagging Spaces : exploring the myth of the Australian beach as an egalitarian space

The Australian beach is now accepted as a significant part of Australian national culture and identity. However, Huntsman (2001) and Booth (2001) both believe that the beach is dying: “intellectuals have failed to apply to the beach the attention they have lavished on the bush…” (Huntsman 2001, 218). Yet the beach remains a prominent image in contemporary literature and film; authors such as Tim Winton and Robert Drewe frequently set their stories in and around the coast. Although initially considered a space of myth (Fiske, Hodge, and Turner 1987), Meaghan Morris labelled the beach as ‘ordinary’ (1998), and as recently as 2001 in the wake of the Sydney Olympic Games, Bonner, McKee, and Mackay termed the beach ‘tacky’ and ‘familiar’. The beach, it appears, defies an easy categorisation. In fact, I believe the beach is more than merely mythic or ordinary, or a combination of the two. Instead it is an imaginative space, seamlessly shifting its metaphorical meanings dependent on readings of the texts. My studies examine the beach through five common beach myths; this paper will explore the myth of the beach as an egalitarian space. Contemporary Australian national texts no longer conform to these mythical representations – (in fact, was the beach ever a space of equality?), instead creating new definitions for the beach space that continually shifts in meaning. Recent texts such as Tim Winton’s Breath (2008) and Stephen Orr’s Time’s Long Ruin (2010) lay a more complex metaphorical meaning upon the beach space. This paper will explore the beach as a space of egalitarianism in conjunction with recent Australian fiction and films in order to discover how the contemporary beach is represented.

Construction safety in the repair and maintenance sector

Statistics indicate that the percentage of fatal industrial accidents arising from repair, maintenance, minor alteration and addition (RMAA) works in Hong Kong was disturbingly high and was over 56% in 2006. This paper provides an initial report of a research project funded by the Research Grants Council (RGC) of the HKSAR to address this safety issue. The aim of this study is to scrutinize the causal relationship between safety climate and safety performance in the RMAA sector. It aims to evaluate the safety climate in the RMAA sector; examine its impacts on safety performance, and recommend measures to improve safety performance in the RMAA sector. This paper firstly reports on the statistics of construction accidents arising from RMAA works. Qualitative and quantitative research methods applied in conducting the research are dis-cussed. The study will critically review these related problems and provide recommendations for improving safety performance in the RMAA sector.

The role of vision in obese and normal-weight children's gait control

Previous research has suggested that perceptual-motor difficulties may account for obese children's lower motor competence; however, specific evidence is currently lacking. Therefore, this study examined the effect of altered visual conditions on spatiotemporal and kinematic gait parameters in obese versus normal-weight children. Thirty-two obese and normal-weight children (11.2 ± 1.5 years) walked barefoot on an instrumented walkway at constant self-selected speed during LIGHT and DARK conditions. Three-dimensional motion analysis was performed to calculate spatiotemporal parameters, as well as sagittal trunk segment and lower extremity joint angles at heel-strike and toe-off. Self-selected speed did not significantly differ between groups. In the DARK condition, all participants walked at a significantly slower speed, decreased stride length, and increased stride width. Without normal vision, obese children had a more pronounced increase in relative double support time compared to the normal-weight group, resulting in a significantly greater percentage of the gait cycle spent in stance. Walking in the DARK, both groups showed greater forward tilt of the trunk and restricted hip movement. All participants had increased knee flexion at heel-strike, as well as decreased knee extension and ankle plantarflexion at toe-off in the DARK condition. The removal of normal vision affected obese children's temporal gait pattern to a larger extent than that of normal-weight peers. Results suggest an increased dependency on vision in obese children to control locomotion. Next to the mechanical problem of moving excess mass, a different coupling between perception and action appears to be governing obese children's motor coordination and control.

Essays on irrigation development, farm production and unaccounted costs : theory and empirical evidence

A review of the literature related to issues involved in irrigation induced agricultural development (IIAD) reveals that: (1) the magnitude, sensitivity and distribution of social welfare of IIAD is not fully analysed; (2) the impacts of excessive pesticide use on farmers’ health are not adequately explained; (3) no analysis estimates the relationship between farm level efficiency and overuse of agro-chemical inputs under imperfect markets; and (4) the method of incorporating groundwater extraction costs is misleading. This PhD thesis investigates these issues by using primary data, along with secondary data from Sri Lanka. The overall findings of the thesis can be summarised as follows. First, the thesis demonstrates that Sri Lanka has gained a positive welfare change as a result of introducing new irrigation technology. The change in the consumer surplus is Rs.48,236 million, while the change in the producer surplus is Rs. 14,274 millions between 1970 and 2006. The results also show that the long run benefits and costs of IIAD depend critically on the magnitude of the expansion of the irrigated area, as well as the competition faced by traditional farmers (agricultural crowding out effects). The traditional sector’s ability to compete with the modern sector depends on productivity improvements, reducing production costs and future structural changes (spillover effects). Second, the thesis findings on pesticides used for agriculture show that, on average, a farmer incurs a cost of approximately Rs. 590 to 800 per month during a typical cultivation period due to exposure to pesticides. It is shown that the value of average loss in earnings per farmer for the ‘hospitalised’ sample is Rs. 475 per month, while it is approximately Rs. 345 per month for the ‘general’ farmers group during a typical cultivation season. However, the average willingness to pay (WTP) to avoid exposure to pesticides is approximately Rs. 950 and Rs. 620 for ‘hospitalised’ and ‘general’ farmers’ samples respectively. The estimated percentage contribution for WTP due to health costs, lost earnings, mitigating expenditure, and disutility are 29, 50, 5 and 16 per cent respectively for hospitalised farmers, while they are 32, 55, 8 and 5 per cent respectively for ‘general’ farmers. It is also shown that given market imperfections for most agricultural inputs, farmers are overusing pesticides with the expectation of higher future returns. This has led to an increase in inefficiency in farming practices which is not understood by the farmers. Third, it is found that various groundwater depletion studies in the economics literature have provided misleading optimal water extraction quantity levels. This is due to a failure to incorporate all production costs in the relevant models. It is only by incorporating quality changes to quantity deterioration, that it is possible to derive socially optimal levels. Empirical results clearly show that the benefits per hectare per month considering both the avoidance costs of deepening agro-wells by five feet from the existing average, as well as the avoidance costs of maintaining the water salinity level at 1.8 (mmhos/Cm), is approximately Rs. 4,350 for farmers in the Anuradhapura district and Rs. 5,600 for farmers in the Matale district.

The influence of underreported crashes on hotspot identification

Hot spot identification (HSID) plays a significant role in improving the safety of transportation networks. Numerous HSID methods have been proposed, developed, and evaluated in the literature. The vast majority of HSID methods reported and evaluated in the literature assume that crash data are complete, reliable, and accurate. Crash under-reporting, however, has long been recognized as a threat to the accuracy and completeness of historical traffic crash records. As a natural continuation of prior studies, the paper evaluates the influence that under-reported crashes exert on HSID methods. To conduct the evaluation, five groups of data gathered from Arizona Department of Transportation (ADOT) over the course of three years are adjusted to account for fifteen different assumed levels of under-reporting. Three identification methods are evaluated: simple ranking (SR), empirical Bayes (EB) and full Bayes (FB). Various threshold levels for establishing hotspots are explored. Finally, two evaluation criteria are compared across HSID methods. The results illustrate that the identification bias—the ability to correctly identify at risk sites--under-reporting is influenced by the degree of under-reporting. Comparatively speaking, crash under-reporting has the largest influence on the FB method and the least influence on the SR method. Additionally, the impact is positively related to the percentage of the under-reported PDO crashes and inversely related to the percentage of the under-reported injury crashes. This finding is significant because it reveals that despite PDO crashes being least severe and costly, they have the most significant influence on the accuracy of HSID.

Tailoring secretion of proteoglycan 4 (PRG4) in tissue-engineered cartilage

Articular cartilage provides a low-friction surface for joint articulation, with boundary lubrication facilitated by proteoglycan 4 (PRG4), which is secreted by chondrocytes of the superficial zone. Chondrocytes from different zones are phenotypically distinct, and their phenotypes in vitro are influenced by the system in which they are cultured. We hypothesized that culturing cells from the superficial (S) zone in two-dimensional monolayer or three-dimensional alginate would affect their synthesis of PRG4, and that subsequently seeding them atop alginate-recovered cells from the middle/ deep (M) zone in various proportions would result in tissue-engineered constructs with varying levels of PRG4 secretion and matrix accumulation. During monolayer culture, S cells retained their PRG4-secreting phenotype, whereas in alginate culture the percentage of cells secreting PRG4 decreased with time. Constructs formed with increasing percentages of S cells decreased in thickness and matrix accumulation, depending on both the culture conditions before construct formation and the S-cell density. PRG4-secreting cells were localized to the S-cell seeded construct surface, with secretion rates of 0.1–4 pg/cell/day or 0.1–1 pg/cell/day for constructs formed with monolayer-recovered or alginate-recovered S cells, respectively. Tailoring secretion of PRG4 in cartilage constructs may be useful for enhancing low-friction properties at the articular surface, while maintaining other surfaces free of PRG4 for enhancing integration with surrounding tissues.